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4 hours ago, Axe Elf said:

He still had "what it takes" last year when Rodgers was the QB; in 4 games with Rodgers, Jordy averaged 19.5 fantasy points per game.  It's hard to say how he will translate to Oakland, but Carr is no slouch--he resurrected Michael Crabtree's career.  I'd say the jury is still out on Jordy--and as an 8th-9th round pick, he can't be THAT much of a bust if he has any startable production at all.

Jordy is being drafted in the 5th to 7th round based on league size and format, not sure where you get 8th or 9th round.

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Lost 3 really good offensive linemen. Lost a dual threat QB, who can also throw better than any of the QBs they brought in. Worst WR corps in the league.   DND.

Who are your biggest busts for the 2018 season?  Here are mine:   Lesean McCoy - bad QB, bad o-line, 30 years old, huge career workload Jordan Howard - less carries, more passing in Chi

10 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

Jordy is being drafted in the 5th to 7th round based on league size and format, not sure where you get 8th or 9th round.

7th maybe but no way 5th, did you see that in a real draft lately?

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1 hour ago, RMJ_12 said:

No I mean an even worse QB and offensive line than 2017.

 

That remains to be seen.

 

1 hour ago, RMJ_12 said:

They lost 3 starting offensive linemen.

 

When you rank 27th in run blocking and 31st in pass blocking, losing 3 starting offensive lineman can be one of two things--it can be either a good thing, if the new linemen perform better than the old ones, or it can be a neutral thing, if the new linemen perform as badly as the old ones.  It is virtually impossible for it to be a bad thing, where the new linemen perform even worse than the old ones.  The vast majority of the time in the NFL, it will be a good thing.

 

1 hour ago, RMJ_12 said:

Do you know who the replacements are?

 

Yes.

 

1 hour ago, RMJ_12 said:

How many times has 29 and 30 years old been a big difference for a RB's production?

 

I don't know; define "big" and maybe an answer can be calculated.

 

We do know that in general, RBs tend to decline after the age of 27--but we also know that some RBs don't.  Other RBs have managed to be productive well into their 30s, like Frank Gore, Adrian Peterson, Marshawn Lynch, Jonathan Stewart and Darren Sproles, just to name a few active tricenarians.  The individual RBs own personal pattern of decline is probably more instructive when determining the potential of an individual than any general trend, however.  McCoy's fantasy production over the last five years has been:

 

Age 25:  332.6

Age 26:  200.4 (thanks Chip Kelly)

Age 27:  238.3 (prorated from 12 games)

Age 28:  319.3 (prorated from 15 games)

Age 29:  263.6

 

So in McCoy's case, he has not exhibited the pattern of decline starting at age 27 that is common for NFL RBs.  Maybe he hits a wall this year, and maybe he doesn't, but there's no indication that he should--there's no young stud RB in town to take carries from him, and the offense doesn't have many other weapons upon which to offload McCoy's touches.  McCoy won't be 30 until the middle of July, and based on his own pattern of steady, reliable production thus far, I'm not willing to throw him in the dustbin the moment he blows out the candles.

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22 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

Jordy is being drafted in the 5th to 7th round based on league size and format, not sure where you get 8th or 9th round.

 

In 10-team PPR leagues on FFC, Jordy Nelson's ADP is 9.02.

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4 hours ago, Rolling Thunder said:

I believe solid research confirms that even the so-called fantasy experts miss on 50% of their projections/predictions.  I bet none of us here beats the "50% rule," if we're totally honest.

 

So as much as we'd like to pretend that our valuations will prove relatively reliable, the truth is a whole bunch of players that we feel strongly will succeed in 2018 will actually bust.  On the flip side, a bunch of players we're convinced will fail will actually succceed.

 

A thread like this is a helpful reality check while we grind out posts singing the praises of our favorite players.

 

 

I'm definitely better than 50%. 

 

50% isn't even good. It's just a coin flip. 

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4 hours ago, dashoe said:

 

 

Speak for yourself guy. I'm a winner and i don't mean a winner like so called experts who play in 100 leagues so they 'win' every year. I play at the most 2. The game is very time consuming so i focus on being right about my picks more than wrong:D

 

I also play in 2. 

 

Playing in 35 and winning 1 or 2 means nothing to me. 

 

If I go 50% on my picks I probably won't contend for like 5 or 6 years. 

 

I play in 2 that mean a lot to me personally, and I generally do well. 

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2 hours ago, RMJ_12 said:

The 2nd highest TD rate since 1990 is nowhere near repeatable.

 

Why not?  If Watson had the 2nd-highest, that means someone else did better.  If someone else can do better, then a 2nd-year QB who put up the 2nd-highest TD rate in his first seven games as a rookie seems like a good bet to be the one to do it.

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38 minutes ago, lolcopter said:

 

If you think Keenum was a bad QB in 2017 you need to get your eyes checked

There was one team who got a pretty good view of Keenum's play in 2017.  That would be the Minnesota Vikings.  And they made essentially zero effort to re-sign Keenum.  So, just maybe, the Vikings FO and CS was seeing what I was seeing.  Completion % or no completion %.

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2 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

There was one team who got a pretty good view of Keenum's play in 2017.  That would be the Minnesota Vikings.  And they made essentially zero effort to re-sign Keenum.  So, just maybe, the Vikings FO and CS was seeing what I was seeing.  Completion % or no completion %.

 

Only because they knew Cousins was shopping for houses in MIN before free agency started. Their GM admitted as much in an interview with Schefter. 

 

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15 minutes ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

I'm definitely better than 50%. 

 

50% isn't even good. It's just a coin flip. 

 

It's not so much the percentage of hits that makes a good analyst, it's the degree of difficulty.  If one merely predicts success for the consensus top 10 players at a given position, they will probably be right more than 50% of the time.

 

But when you say things like "Marquise Goodwin will be a productive fantasy player in a Kyle Shanahan offense," or "Alex Smith will be a credible starting QB" when those players are going undrafted--it's not a coin flip--you don't have a 50% shot to be right by chance alone.  You basically have to be Axe Elf to post a reliable hit rate when all you do is call the longshots.

 

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14 minutes ago, Axe Elf said:

 

Why not?  If Watson had the 2nd-highest, that means someone else did better.  If someone else can do better, then a 2nd-year QB who put up the 2nd-highest TD rate in his first seven games as a rookie seems like a good bet to be the one to do it.

Can I ask you a simple question?

 

No floor or ceiling talk.  I want your realistic take.

 

Assuming Watson plays all 16, and the offensive injuries around him are only moderate, what is your season long prediction for him?  Pass yards, pass TDs, INTs,  rushing yards, and rushing TDs.

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19 minutes ago, Axe Elf said:

 

It's not so much the percentage of hits that makes a good analyst, it's the degree of difficulty.  If one merely predicts success for the consensus top 10 players at a given position, they will probably be right more than 50% of the time.

 

But when you say things like "Marquise Goodwin will be a productive fantasy player in a Kyle Shanahan offense," or "Alex Smith will be a credible starting QB" when those players are going undrafted--it's not a coin flip--you don't have a 50% shot to be right by chance alone.  You basically have to be Axe Elf to post a reliable hit rate when all you do is call the longshots.

 

 

Axually... I recall your hit rate not looking too great last year lol. 

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10 minutes ago, Experienced Rookie said:

Can I ask you a simple question?

 

No floor or ceiling talk.  I want your realistic take.

 

Assuming Watson plays all 16, and the offensive injuries around him are only moderate, what is your season long prediction for him?  Pass yards, pass TDs, INTs,  rushing yards, and rushing TDs.

 

Realistically, I don't think he can play all 16 games.  Maybe I'm jaded by the degree to which I have been bitten by the injury bug over the last two seasons, but Watson plays in a way that I think is probably unsustainable for QBs in the NFL.  But he's young and impetuous and still wants to WIN at all costs--even at the cost of his own longevity (for now).

 

I can't even tell you how many games I think he will play--but I DO believe that in the games he plays, he will offer a significant positional advantage.  Since there are starter-quality QBs available deep into the draft (Matt Ryan in the 14th and so on), one would be a fool not to back up Watson with one of them--but since the cost of acquiring Watson is so low, relative to the reward of having him for however many games he survives, one would also be a fool not to take a shot on however many matchup-winning weeks that Watson can give them.

 

I don't know what Watson's season-long totals can be, if he makes it that far, but I do know it's going to be fun finding out--and if he does make it that far, I think this will be one of those seasons that fantasy veterans look back on for a long, long time, wishing they had pulled the trigger on draft day.

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4 minutes ago, Axe Elf said:

 

Realistically, I don't think he can play all 16 games.  Maybe I'm jaded by the degree to which I have been bitten by the injury bug over the last two seasons, but Watson plays in a way that I think is probably unsustainable for QBs in the NFL.  But he's young and impetuous and still wants to WIN at all costs--even at the cost of his own longevity (for now).

 

I can't even tell you how many games I think he will play--but I DO believe that in the games he plays, he will offer a significant positional advantage.  Since there are starter-quality QBs available deep into the draft (Matt Ryan in the 14th and so on), one would be a fool not to back up Watson with one of them--but since the cost of acquiring Watson is so low, relative to the reward of having him for however many games he survives, one would also be a fool not to take a shot on however many matchup-winning weeks that Watson can give them.

 

I don't know what Watson's season-long totals can be, if he makes it that far, but I do know it's going to be fun finding out--and if he does make it that far, I think this will be one of those seasons that fantasy veterans look back on for a long, long time, wishing they had pulled the trigger on draft day.

Longest non-answer ever.

 

Ok fine.  You don't want to lay down full season stats.  Then at least break it down by his what you predict his per game averages to be.  275 yards a game?  2 TDs a game?  3??  45 rushing yards per game?  70??

 

 

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4 minutes ago, Experienced Rookie said:

Longest non-answer ever.

 

Ok fine.  You don't want to lay down full season stats.  Then at least break it down by his what you predict his per game averages to be.  275 yards a game?  2 TDs a game?  3??  45 rushing yards per game?  70??

 

If you spot him September for getting up to NFL speed, he averaged 31.3 fantasy points per game in October.  (In comparison, Russell Wilson, the top fantasy QB of 2017, averaged 21.7 fantasy points per game for the season.)

 

The best predictor of future performance is the baseline of past performance, but if you spot him 2017 for getting up to NFL speed...

 

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7 minutes ago, Axe Elf said:

 

If you spot him September for getting up to NFL speed, he averaged 31.3 fantasy points per game in October.  (In comparison, Russell Wilson, the top fantasy QB of 2017, averaged 21.7 fantasy points per game for the season.)

 

The best predictor of future performance is the baseline of past performance, but if you spot him 2017 for getting up to NFL speed...

 

If you're not going to answer the question, or youre going to make me do all the calculating, then why even respond in the first place?

 

Ive already asked you twice, and you've darted away from it.  If you don't want to put concrete numbers down, then just say so.

 

Its not a tough question.  How many passing yards, TDs, rushing yards, and TDs will Watson average per game?  No conjecture.  No vague nonsense.  Just numbers.  Or nothing...

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2 minutes ago, Experienced Rookie said:

If you're not going to answer the question, or youre going to make me do all the calculating, then why even respond in the first place?

 

I thought you wanted me to.  My bad.

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3 hours ago, RMJ_12 said:

The 2nd highest TD rate since 1990 is nowhere near repeatable.

 

His  abnormally TD historic rate is the reason why he is valuable and how many people are this board keep telling us predicting td's is fluky?:)

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33 minutes ago, Axe Elf said:

 

Oh?  What was my hit rate last year?

 

Low enough to disappear for about 6 months so you didn't have to own up to it lol. 

 

I find you entertaining, I don't intend to attack, although I'm sure that's what it appears that I'm doing. 

 

We all have bad years, so it's not a big deal. 

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1 hour ago, joshua18 said:

 

Only because they knew Cousins was shopping for houses in MIN before free agency started. Their GM admitted as much in an interview with Schefter. 

 

If the Vikings liked Keenum, they would not have cared where Cousins was house hunting.  And Keenum would have been way cheaper.  Not sure how you are doing anything but helping to prove my point.

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29 minutes ago, Axe Elf said:

 

If you spot him September for getting up to NFL speed, he averaged 31.3 fantasy points per game in October.  (In comparison, Russell Wilson, the top fantasy QB of 2017, averaged 21.7 fantasy points per game for the season.)

 

The best predictor of future performance is the baseline of past performance, but if you spot him 2017 for getting up to NFL speed...

 

Ok, I guess I need to do the math then.  If past performance is the indicator for future success, then you're essentially saying 31 fantasy points per game.

 

Lets say its even in 6 point pass TDs settings.  1/25 yards.

 

275 passing yards per game.  11 points

3 TDs per game.  18 points

30 yards rushing per game. 3 points

1 INT per game.  -2 points.

.25 rushing TDs per game.  1.5 points

 

That's 31.5 points per game right there.

 

Full 16 game season total prediction would be:

4400 yards

48 TDs

480 rushing yards

4 rushing TDs

16 INTs

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4000 yards passing and 35 TDs with 300 rushing and 3 TDs would still be a stellar QB season.

 

And oh, I am talking about Watson now, not Keenum.  It would take Keenum about three years to compile those numbers.

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6 minutes ago, Experienced Rookie said:

Ok, I guess I need to do the math then.

 

Full 16 game season total prediction would be:

4400 yards

48 TDs

480 rushing yards

4 rushing TDs

16 INTs

 

Maybe it's just me, but I'm still not seeing "bust" there.

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