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Julius Randle 2018-2019 Season Outlook


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Over the last three months of the season he was getting 31 mins a game, putting up 19.2/9/3.1 on 57% FG's . . . and still couldn't crack the top 90.      That's because he also ave

Absolutely agree it cannot be overstated how much his awful lack of defensive stats impacts his fantasy value.  Only around top 80-90 even when averaging 16 pts, 9 rbs, 3 ast.  Has now played four sea

He's so tough to predict because the skill/talent is there but mentally some times he just doesn't have it together. He was 16/8/2.5 last year and tbh I don't see that changing much. Maybe bumps to 18/10 but inconsistency/uncertainty scares me a little on draft day. That said I've watched games and he looks like the best player on the floor at times so I know he can kick it into gear.

 

We'll probably see him going in the 5th round on draft day and I wouldn't let him slip passed the 6th.

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I absolutely love this spot for Randle. The Pels play so fast. They are horrible on defense so Randle won't sit because of his inabilities on that end of the floor. They moved on from Rondo so there is a void for playmaking. They already have experience with two bigs and Randle and Boogie are both great passers. Aside from Randle not stretching the floor as much as Boogie they have pretty similar games. I think we will see a lot of the same sets the Pels ran when they had Boogie. I hope this signing also limits AD's minutes a bit, but the only downside is if the Pels only use Mirotic and Randle at the 4 and they cannibalize eachother. I want to get more info on the rotations before I assign a target round for Randle, but he is definitely on my list of players to focus on. 

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2 hours ago, blob2004 said:

what makes you guys think the Pels won't start Mirotic and AD, and Randle won't just be a backup with 25 min?

Given their roster construction and more teams playing positionless basketball, IMO both Mirotic and Randle will get all the run they can handle no matter who starts next to AD.  Mirotic and Randle are both versatile players so will no doubt play together a few minutes each game.  The Pels are still horrible at SF so Mirotic or Randle will get some burn at SF in some lineups.  Conversely they could play some small-ball lineups with Mirotic or Randle playing the "stretch 5" a few minutes each game.  

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I think he gets big minutes and stuffs the stat sheet.  Targeting for sure.  What round you guys think?  How does he compare to similarly ranked players?   Thinking somewhere around the 4th (reach) - 6th (steal) round...

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22 hours ago, hipriest69 said:

I think he gets big minutes and stuffs the stat sheet.  Targeting for sure.  What round you guys think?  How does he compare to similarly ranked players?   Thinking somewhere around the 4th (reach) - 6th (steal) round...

Over the last three months of the season he was getting 31 mins a game, putting up 19.2/9/3.1 on 57% FG's . . . and still couldn't crack the top 90. 

 

7p6tocF.png

 

That's because he also averaged only 0.6 BLK and 0.4 STL over that same time. He's incapable of generating defensive stats and that drags his value down. His career averages in blocks and steals look like this:

 

17-18: 0.5/0.5

16-17: 0.7/0.5

15-16: 0.7/0.4

 

Something to take into consideration if you're thinking about drafting him that high.

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8 minutes ago, Kaboom said:

Over the last three months of the season he was getting 31 mins a game, putting up 19.2/9/3.1 on 57% FG's . . . and still couldn't crack the top 90. 

 

7p6tocF.png

 

That's because he also averaged only 0.6 BLK and 0.4 STL over that same time. He's incapable of generating defensive stats and that drags his value down. His career averages in blocks and steals look like this:

 

17-18: 0.5/0.5

16-17: 0.7/0.5

15-16: 0.7/0.4

 

Something to take into consideration if you're thinking about drafting him that high.

 

That is very true.  Also dragging his value down is his high TO and no 3's.  I think his stocks are enough of a contribution that he isn't hurting you in a weekly h2h matchup.  Basically some weeks he'll give you great stocks and some weeks will be crappy.  

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2 hours ago, Kaboom said:

Over the last three months of the season he was getting 31 mins a game, putting up 19.2/9/3.1 on 57% FG's . . . and still couldn't crack the top 90. 

 

7p6tocF.png

 

That's because he also averaged only 0.6 BLK and 0.4 STL over that same time. He's incapable of generating defensive stats and that drags his value down. His career averages in blocks and steals look like this:

 

17-18: 0.5/0.5

16-17: 0.7/0.5

15-16: 0.7/0.4

 

Something to take into consideration if you're thinking about drafting him that high.

 

Nice post..... probably a little better player irl than fantasy.  Lack of stocks, lack of 3's, meh FT%, make him more of a 3 cat guy....

 

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Absolutely agree it cannot be overstated how much his awful lack of defensive stats impacts his fantasy value.  Only around top 80-90 even when averaging 16 pts, 9 rbs, 3 ast.  Has now played four seasons, really cannot expect sudden and significant improvement in his defense.  Reminds me of Z-Bo and Carlos Boozer--good real life player, deceptively bad for fantasy.  

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3 hours ago, Airball B said:

Absolutely agree it cannot be overstated how much his awful lack of defensive stats impacts his fantasy value.  Only around top 80-90 even when averaging 16 pts, 9 rbs, 3 ast.  Has now played four seasons, really cannot expect sudden and significant improvement in his defense.  Reminds me of Z-Bo and Carlos Boozer--good real life player, deceptively bad for fantasy.  

 

depends on what you are playing. top 80-90 is not bad, unless you are over drafting him. but if you are taking him at rounds 6-7 then that is a good return. also yes the stocks will be low, but what you are getting with Randle is consistency. There are players who can average 1/1/1 but you never know when they will contribute in those cats, which can be a headache in H2H. With Randle you are not going to get sexy numbers, but you know you are going to get consistent points rebounds and some assists every week

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4 hours ago, Airball B said:

Absolutely agree it cannot be overstated how much his awful lack of defensive stats impacts his fantasy value.  Only around top 80-90 even when averaging 16 pts, 9 rbs, 3 ast.  Has now played four seasons, really cannot expect sudden and significant improvement in his defense.  Reminds me of Z-Bo and Carlos Boozer--good real life player, deceptively bad for fantasy.  

Plenty of people were super pleased with his returns at various points in the year last season, relatively good stretches when he was either returning on his ADP or was still below it. Great comparison.

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3 hours ago, sya said:

 

depends on what you are playing. top 80-90 is not bad, unless you are over drafting him. but if you are taking him at rounds 6-7 then that is a good return. also yes the stocks will be low, but what you are getting with Randle is consistency. There are players who can average 1/1/1 but you never know when they will contribute in those cats, which can be a headache in H2H. With Randle you are not going to get sexy numbers, but you know you are going to get consistent points rebounds and some assists every week

The thing is, popcorn stats are usually overvalued.  Of course it's possible to get value for him, but most likely other owners in your league are going to think higher of him than they should because of the triple doubles.

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  • 2 weeks later...

25 & 8 with 3 assists, no turnovers, steals or blocks. 

23 minutes 15 FGA 5/6FT with 2 TRIPLES.

 

It's one game, but the rotation seems tight.

 

I don't see Randle getting more than 28 minutes on any given night... all he's lacking are the defensive stats. black hole in category leagues. Way better suited for points leagues

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Absolute monster in my league where you get boost for bench players and its points league. I'm little worried about the minutes. I was thinking he would be almost 30 minutes per night guy. He needs to be very efficient if he gets under 28 per night. Good thing is that the second unit has nothing else so he runs the show. Assist, points and rebounds will be plenty. The 3-pointer category would be a big plus if he can sustain it.

 

Obviously he is great handcuff for AD. If AD (or Miro) goes down he will destroy everyone with 20+/10+/5ast averages.

 

Glad to own him.

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