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John Collins 2018-2019 Season Outlook


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7 hours ago, HerrMcKenzie said:

Sadly only 4 boards. Should I get used to it? Last year he had around 7.5 in 24 minutes a game; was hoping for 9 - 10 with increased minutes.

Dude it's like his 3rd game back since last season.....

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"Nothing goes over my head.  My reflexes are too fast."

hmm let's see what is going on in this threa...d    

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7 hours ago, HerrMcKenzie said:

Sadly only 4 boards. Should I get used to it? Last year he had around 7.5 in 24 minutes a game; was hoping for 9 - 10 with increased minutes.

 

Dude had 11 in the last game and 7 before that. Tell me why you think 4 will be the norm. 

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3 hours ago, hungry said:

 

Dude had 11 in the last game and 7 before that. Tell me why you think 4 will be the norm. 

Nono, I do not think that 4 will be the norm, was just wondering whether his rebounds will fluctuate throughout the season and whether he will be closer to 6-7 rather than 9-10

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3 minutes ago, croydonfacelift said:

He looks good. Looks like he can get his own shot with good %, and this is against GS. He may justify the hype. 

Well GS hasn't been that good in defence against bigs with draymond out. But, im loving the %. Im really hoping he starts getting more stocks though. It'll help push him into potential top 30 production. 

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Hahaha. I love how he's dropping big numbers & nobody's really losing their mind about the lack of stocks. I'm very grateful for his production, but ADMIT IT, the lack of stocks is driving you guys nuts. Hahahaha

 

24/11 1 block is very f*ing solid though. Thanks.

 

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8 hours ago, MysticPeak said:

Hahaha. I love how he's dropping big numbers & nobody's really losing their mind about the lack of stocks. I'm very grateful for his production, but ADMIT IT, the lack of stocks is driving you guys nuts. Hahahaha

 

24/11 1 block is very f*ing solid though. Thanks.

 

 

What was driving me nuts was the fact he was injured

 

Just be happy that he returned and is putting decent numbers. The stocks will come.

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I don’t think stocks are a big part of his game right now. I’m happy he’s playing and putting up numbers. Should be a good fg% anchor, points, rebounds. Was supposed to initiate the offense this year and I think that will come more and more. I think his game starts to include more of a perimeter game sooner or later but not right now. In a year or two he may be close to a 1-1-1 guy with good numbers across the board, but I don’t think that’s going to happen this year. For a second year guy who missed a big chunk of the preseason, we should be extatic with the numbers he’s putting up right now.

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2 hours ago, HerrMcKenzie said:

No love after tonight? 26 and 14!! with 2 3PMs with an incredible FG%. Once the stocks start to come back to around 1 STL and 1.5 BLK he will be pure gold.

NO buddy... the stock won't come NEAR THAT NUMBERS 4SURE... be lucky if he gets to 0.5 stl 1 blk... but everything else is just beautiful :) 

image.png.a4960ef86d6c3fa6c02fdfd10c4f2feb.png

 

EDIT: He's pure gold already.

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6 minutes ago, unclebengi said:

being mad about stocks with Johnny is stupid.  He can average 20 and 10 with high percentages.  He's a top 35 player over the last week in 8 and 9 cat with no steals.  Stocks are just a bonus with this guy.  4th round value is his floor.

 

I think it is fair for roto players to be a little disappointed that he's not doing better than .6 steals + blocks per game.  I was certainly expecting more there.

 

That said, I'm H2H...and if he's going to continue to put up scoring and rebounding numbers like this, I'll be plenty happy with my pick. 

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His stocks #'s are in line with what he did last year, not on a per minute basis, but we're looking at a super small sample size this year of a player coming off injury.  They'll normalize, but he may never reach 2.5 stocks per game in his career, not really his game imo.

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1 minute ago, unclebengi said:

His stocks #'s are in line with what he did last year, not on a per minute basis, but we're looking at a super small sample size this year of a player coming off injury.  They'll normalize, but he may never reach 2.5 stocks per game in his career, not really his game imo.

 

He averaged 1.6 per game last year in fewer minutes.  Look, I'm not saying that he should be averaging more than 2.0 or something.  There's no justification for expecting that. But I think it is absolutely fair to expect 1.5.

 

And yes, I think you are right. They will likely normalize.  You've seen his rebounding numbers do that over the last several games.  I'm just saying that it is fair for roto players to be a little disappointed right now and want more. 

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With stocks, I always use their college stats as a starting off point to see if they are going to be stock guys in the pros or if what they are doing with stocks is sustainable if it is high. Because usually if they were stock guys in college, they have a strong possibility to be stock guys in the pros and if they weren't, then they won't be in the pros either. 

 

His last year at Wake he was 0.6 steals and 1.6 Blocks.  And I had Collins last year as well as now, and although my expectation was higher than what he is providing so far in stocks this year, I did not think he would really that much more than what he gave last year despite getting consistent starter minutes this year.

 

So far overall though, I am happy with what he is bringing because not only has it already been solid (not counting the stocks), but I know he still has room to grow even more.  He really could this season eventually be at or about 20 PPG, 9-10 RPG, .05-1 threes per game with a solid FG% and unharmful FT%.  And If he can provide the same stocks as last year, which I don't see why it won't normalize to that, that is icing on the cake. 

 

The breakout is happening like we all knew it would.  Enjoy it.

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