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Josh Hart 2018-2019 Season Outlook


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Who's Josh Hart? I thought his name was John Hart?

Added him. You’re trash without enough 3 Point shooters in todays NBA and Lakers need him to let it fly.   Not too scared about Walton. Lebron is there now and he probably loves a guy like H

Hart is polarizing right now. Please share your opinion and insight. Convincing the other side of your thought process isn't that important. Time will tell how it plays out with Hart. Please chill a l

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1 hour ago, Auction>Snake said:

I think it's almost a guarantee he gets the start over KCP almost immediately. How do you think he compliments LeBron? Does he have breakout potential this season? Honestly, he's the James Harden of this year's summer league.

 

Dynasty gold.

He definitely will not start over KCP immediately, what

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3 hours ago, Auction>Snake said:

I think it's almost a guarantee he gets the start over KCP almost immediately. How do you think he compliments LeBron? Does he have breakout potential this season? Honestly, he's the James Harden of this year's summer league.

 

Dynasty gold.

 

Let's not get carried away with Summer League against a bunch of rookies and G-Leaguers. KCP is the veteran and will start for the majority of the season unless he gets hurt. Let Hart develop, let's not throw him to the wolves.

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5 hours ago, Pyschout said:

I think Hart can end up being a better (but different type of) player than KCP, but it's probably not going to be next year.  I also don't think Hart is as good a shooter as he was last year, nor KCP as bad a one.

KCP had his best season shooting last year. He isn't a particuarly great 3 point shooter I don't know why people seem to think he is.

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15 hours ago, Auction>Snake said:

I think it's almost a guarantee he gets the start over KCP almost immediately. How do you think he compliments LeBron? Does he have breakout potential this season? Honestly, he's the James Harden of this year's summer league.

 

Dynasty gold.

You totally lost me when you threw "James Harden" in your post....maybe the only thing you can comp those two guys on is if Hart has some crazy high TOs. Aside from that, this hype stuff needs to calm down. It is summer league. SUMMER LEAGUE. Not even preseason. Just a bunch of guys that won't even play minutes in the NBA this year scrimmaging against some rookies, sophomores, etc. 

 

I like Hart's dynasty upside, but that won't be hit for years in the future unless he is dealt. This is a crowded roster in LA and last I checked Lebron plays a ton of minutes. And this team is looking to superfy and the wings is the easiest/most likely spot that that happens and Lebron doesn't play much as a 4 in the regular season. Hart on another team with a clear path to minutes would be more exciting. 

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On 7/10/2018 at 9:19 PM, Auction>Snake said:

I think it's almost a guarantee he gets the start over KCP almost immediately. How do you think he compliments LeBron? Does he have breakout potential this season? Honestly, he's the James Harden of this year's summer league.

 

Dynasty gold.

KCP wouldn’t have needed 2 OTs to win a summer league game 

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On 7/11/2018 at 3:16 PM, thezing1 said:

You totally lost me when you threw "James Harden" in your post....maybe the only thing you can comp those two guys on is if Hart has some crazy high TOs. Aside from that, this hype stuff needs to calm down. It is summer league. SUMMER LEAGUE. Not even preseason. Just a bunch of guys that won't even play minutes in the NBA this year scrimmaging against some rookies, sophomores, etc. 

 

I like Hart's dynasty upside, but that won't be hit for years in the future unless he is dealt. This is a crowded roster in LA and last I checked Lebron plays a ton of minutes. And this team is looking to superfy and the wings is the easiest/most likely spot that that happens and Lebron doesn't play much as a 4 in the regular season. Hart on another team with a clear path to minutes would be more exciting. 

 

Hart already proved himself last season in the regular season NBA.  He is not a summer league flash in the pan.  Secondly, Hart does not need a trade to be relevant (although he has been the most coveted trade piece on the LAL after Ingram).  He is versatile and capable of playing multiple positions and is not strictly a KCP backup.  There is absolutely no way he won't find a way to average a floor of 28+ minutes.  Cream rises to the top.  Every year breakout players are overlooked because a roster looks "crowded," but some fantasy owners never seem to learn.

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6 hours ago, El_Chingon said:

 

Hart already proved himself last season in the regular season NBA.  He is not a summer league flash in the pan.  Secondly, Hart does not need a trade to be relevant (although he has been the most coveted trade piece on the LAL after Ingram).  He is versatile and capable of playing multiple positions and is not strictly a KCP backup.  There is absolutely no way he won't find a way to average a floor of 28+ minutes.  Cream rises to the top.  Every year breakout players are overlooked because a roster looks "crowded," but some fantasy owners never seem to learn.

Exactly what do you see the breakdown of minutes being for the Lakers? 28 mpg is decent, but not a lot and it is not what I consider starter's minutes. 34 mpg and I would be a lot more excited. And what do you project Hart to do this season? Where exactly do you see his fantasy appeal coming from? 

 

I also don't understand this assumption that if you aren't on the hype you are "against" a player. I like Hart. I think he is a nice player. I am not going to go crazy and reach for him in a draft though. His value is in 3's, which happens to be the deepest category in fantasy. Maybe I can see an argument for 9 cat since his TO are low. But Hart can score but I need to see more steals before I can get too excited about him. Easy to say "Cream rises to the top" when you are sharing the court with players that won't see NBA action. Come on and be a little fair. Look at that box score and tell me what player aside from Hart is going to play any sort of minutes this year for the Lakers? 

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18 minutes ago, thezing1 said:

Exactly what do you see the breakdown of minutes being for the Lakers? 28 mpg is decent, but not a lot and it is not what I consider starter's minutes. 34 mpg and I would be a lot more excited. And what do you project Hart to do this season? Where exactly do you see his fantasy appeal coming from? 

 

I also don't understand this assumption that if you aren't on the hype you are "against" a player. I like Hart. I think he is a nice player. I am not going to go crazy and reach for him in a draft though. His value is in 3's, which happens to be the deepest category in fantasy. Maybe I can see an argument for 9 cat since his TO are low. But Hart can score but I need to see more steals before I can get too excited about him. Easy to say "Cream rises to the top" when you are sharing the court with players that won't see NBA action. Come on and be a little fair. Look at that box score and tell me what player aside from Hart is going to play any sort of minutes this year for the Lakers? 

 

I am not saying you should "go crazy and reach for him."  But as a floor he should average 28+ minutes per game playing both SG and SF.  Lebron will play some PF and since they lost B. Lopez they will go small with no true centers on the floor in some situations.  Last season in 11 games post ASB:  15 pts, 7 reb, 2.2 3PM, .9 stl, .4 blk, 47% fg.  So his value is more than 3PM, he is a versatile guy both in real life and fantasy stats.  Small sample but he is proven against NBA competition not just summer league guys as you seem to be implying.  Magic Johnson and others are saying he could potentially even start, and other teams are coveting him in trade talks along with Ingram.

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28 mpg is definitely not his floor, the Lakers have a lot of veteran mouths that expect to be fed. I think 28 is in line with my expectation for his minutes assuming expected health for the team. That might even be a little high. 

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I wouldn't just disregard anything that happens in the Summer League as irrelevant. Just last year we witnessed Spida, Kuz, Tatum, Ingram(1 game), Lonzo ball out in Summer League and for the most part, they are all young studs going forward. Hart's Summer League performance has just increased his trade value tremendously and can become a key piece for the Lakers in a trade for a star vet.. I know he's been an appealing trade asset but i believe after this Summer League, teams are gonna want a piece of Hart more than ever before. Whether the Lakers decide to trade him or not, that is up to them but if anything, Hart has proven that he should play a significant role in the upcoming season.. 

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144 minutes between 5 players at 3 positions = 24 minutes/game each.   Just guessing but I think Stephenson gets the shorter end of the stick and probably is relegated to about 15 - 20 min/game with the second unit.  Ball and Rondo split 50/50.  Ingram probably around 28-32 min/game.  Hart likely gets slightly more minutes than KCP most nights, even if he comes off the bench.  Hart may also get some burn at PG/SF in certain lineups or injury situations.  Given his long-term value and potentially superior play and talent, there's no reason he should get less than 28 min/game, and possibly more if he plays well or injuries hit.  

 

Ball 24

Rondo 24

Stephenson 15

Ingram 30

KCP 22

Hart 29

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30 minutes ago, larfboy said:

I wouldn't just disregard anything that happens in the Summer League as irrelevant. Just last year we witnessed Spida, Kuz, Tatum, Ingram(1 game), Lonzo ball out in Summer League and for the most part, they are all young studs going forward. Hart's Summer League performance has just increased his trade value tremendously and can become a key piece for the Lakers in a trade for a star vet.. I know he's been an appealing trade asset but i believe after this Summer League, teams are gonna want a piece of Hart more than ever before. Whether the Lakers decide to trade him or not, that is up to them but if anything, Hart has proven that he should play a significant role in the upcoming season.. 

Hart isn't going anywhere. I'm pretty confident in my above assessment, especially considering the KCP situation. The Lakers want KCP in LA for a year. No more, no less. Why? Hart isn't ready to start for a 55-win team this year. And he's the SG of the future from 2019 on. 

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1 minute ago, miasma16 said:

Hart isn't going anywhere. I'm pretty confident in my above assessment, especially considering the KCP situation. The Lakers want KCP in LA for a year. No more, no less. Why? Hart isn't ready to start for a 55-win team this year. And he's the SG of the future from 2019 on. 

i agree that he isn't starting ahead of KCP however i definitely expect a significant increase in minutes from last season. As far as his future with the Lakers, I wouldn't count out the possibility of Hart moving as long as Kawhi is still part of the Spurs. 

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2 hours ago, El_Chingon said:

 

I am not saying you should "go crazy and reach for him."  But as a floor he should average 28+ minutes per game playing both SG and SF.  Lebron will play some PF and since they lost B. Lopez they will go small with no true centers on the floor in some situations.  Last season in 11 games post ASB:  15 pts, 7 reb, 2.2 3PM, .9 stl, .4 blk, 47% fg.  So his value is more than 3PM, he is a versatile guy both in real life and fantasy stats.  Small sample but he is proven against NBA competition not just summer league guys as you seem to be implying.  Magic Johnson and others are saying he could potentially even start, and other teams are coveting him in trade talks along with Ingram.

You have to remember context in that 11 game sample set you are referencing from last year.  The Lakers were in tank mode, Ingram and Ball missed almost all of that stretch, BroLo/Randle/KCP were not getting their full minutes....AND Hart did that work in 35 mpg!!! He isn't getting 35 mpg and assuming a top 1 or 2 scoring option role this season if the Lakers are healthy. The chances that stat line is matched or exceeded is very small this season if everyone is healthy. And I don't see a way the Lakers rest/tank this season with Lebron on board. That just isn't going to happen and I would guess they are in a tight race for seeding/playoff spot so the rotation will only get tighter as the season wears on. Just my two pennies. I respect your analysis, I just disagree with the conclusion based on context. That last game when Hart hit 7 threes I will never forget. It was the difference of 11.5K for me and I remember the context behind Hart down the stretch since he really helped my competitor. Hart had an opportunity and he ran with it. But, he needs the opportunity for 32-36 mpg and I don't see it yet. That said, I see no reason the Lakers should give minutes to KCP. This team is not going to compete in the upper echelon. KCP is just not that good. Develop the youth and see if you have something in Hart IMO. 

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55 minutes ago, thezing1 said:

You have to remember context in that 11 game sample set you are referencing from last year.  The Lakers were in tank mode, Ingram and Ball missed almost all of that stretch, BroLo/Randle/KCP were not getting their full minutes....AND Hart did that work in 35 mpg!!! He isn't getting 35 mpg and assuming a top 1 or 2 scoring option role this season if the Lakers are healthy. The chances that stat line is matched or exceeded is very small this season if everyone is healthy. And I don't see a way the Lakers rest/tank this season with Lebron on board. That just isn't going to happen and I would guess they are in a tight race for seeding/playoff spot so the rotation will only get tighter as the season wears on. Just my two pennies. I respect your analysis, I just disagree with the conclusion based on context. That last game when Hart hit 7 threes I will never forget. It was the difference of 11.5K for me and I remember the context behind Hart down the stretch since he really helped my competitor. Hart had an opportunity and he ran with it. But, he needs the opportunity for 32-36 mpg and I don't see it yet. That said, I see no reason the Lakers should give minutes to KCP. This team is not going to compete in the upper echelon. KCP is just not that good. Develop the youth and see if you have something in Hart IMO. 

 

Thanks for your analysis and I appreciate point of view.  Please know I am aware of the context of the 11 game stretch (that's why I mentioned sample size in my post....as an aside, nowhere did I predict he would replicate those numbers over a full season on a fully healthy Lakers squad.).  I was only refuting your claim that he mainly only helps in 3PM, which followed your initial claim that he was only playing well against summer league competition. I view Hart as a rising player who is proven against NBA competition, so I don't see anything stopping him from earning a consistent 28-32 minute role.  The Lakers won't have to tank / rest for him to play a meaningful role in their rotation.  

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Hart is one of the best rebounding guards in the league - out of position rebounds I’d see as he’s most useful asset, aside from 3’s and points and sprinkling of supporting stats. Hope he gets at least 25 mins this season!

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36 minutes ago, El_Chingon said:

 

Thanks for your analysis and I appreciate point of view.  Please know I am aware of the context of the 11 game stretch (that's why I mentioned sample size in my post....as an aside, nowhere did I predict he would replicate those numbers over a full season on a fully healthy Lakers squad.).  I was only refuting your claim that he mainly only helps in 3PM, which followed your initial claim that he was only playing well against summer league competition. I view Hart as a rising player who is proven against NBA competition, so I don't see anything stopping him from earning a consistent 28-32 minute role.  The Lakers won't have to tank / rest for him to play a meaningful role in their rotation.  

I hear ya...and I know you never said he would match the stat line and that was my opinion. I think we are differing in the minute projection primarily. I also think his minutes this year will be in a lesser role, but that just complicates the discussion. But maybe complicated discussion is what the offseason is all about. 

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2 hours ago, El_Chingon said:

 

Thanks for your analysis and I appreciate point of view.  Please know I am aware of the context of the 11 game stretch (that's why I mentioned sample size in my post....as an aside, nowhere did I predict he would replicate those numbers over a full season on a fully healthy Lakers squad.).  I was only refuting your claim that he mainly only helps in 3PM, which followed your initial claim that he was only playing well against summer league competition. I view Hart as a rising player who is proven against NBA competition, so I don't see anything stopping him from earning a consistent 28-32 minute role.  The Lakers won't have to tank / rest for him to play a meaningful role in their rotation.  

 

So what do you expect minutes wise/production wise with a Ball/Rondo at the 1 and him behind KCP at the 2, with the primary bulk of the scoring coming from Lebron, Kuzma & Ball/Ingram.

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4 minutes ago, RedDogNamedClippers said:

 

So what do you expect minutes wise/production wise with a Ball/Rondo at the 1 and him behind KCP at the 2, with the primary bulk of the scoring coming from Lebron, Kuzma & Ball/Ingram.

I'd expect Hart to take minutes at pg, sg, and sf positions. I think Hart is versatile enough to be able to contribute effectively in 3 positions. I can see him getting 25-30 minutes. I think this Laker team is built so that the young core can contribute important minutes (25-30 mpg) and the veterans (minus Lebron) about (20-25 mpg). Honestly, I dont see any player (minus Lebron) averaging more than 32 mpg considering how deep this Laker team just got. 

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  • 2 months later...

Crushing summer league and did well end of season.  Backcourt is crowded with Pope, Lance Stevenson in the mix also.  I do feel his high IQ game and adaptibility might work best with Lebron but maybe he's not the defender the other two are.

 

Thoughts on projected minutes and stats?

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Josh Hart was one of the most under-rated rookies last year. I felt with the minutes and USG he got last year he did very well. Didn't necessarily blow up the stat sheet but definitely did some of the nitty gritty things that don't show up on the stat sheet. He is an above average shooter and can slash to the basket and score. He should have plenty of open looks with the likes of LBJ, Ball and Rondo setting up open teammates and i think he will try and be a 3 and D guy this year. He worked hard this offseason and i think they would rather try and develop him further so i see the SG spot for the lakers be very inconsistent. I reckon they will play KCP there some games and Josh Hart some other games. Lance will always come of the bench but all 3 of them will get minutes on the court, they are all too talented not to.

 

Prediction: 13.2 points/ 1.3 assists/ 3.4 rebounds/ 1.2 steals/ 0.3 blocks/ 1.7 threes in 24 minutes a game. 

 

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Its just way too crowded in the backcourt and wings in Flakerland to get excited about any of these guys. Reports are KCP is in the best shape of his career (the magic new diet - who'd have thought Fast Food Diets didn't help pro athletes?!) and magic is really happy with him too and he was predicted to be the odd man out. Then your definitely going to see Rondo and Lonzo together a good chunk of minutes (taking out a good chunk of SG mins for KCP and Hart). Bron isn't going to play just at the 4 and 5 either...and of course Bron's best mate Lance (that will be an amusing little backstory at LA this year - how do those two old enemigos get along) only so many minutes to go around and they are trying to win. Seems like a time share to avoid until it plays out and maybe be ready to pounce off the FA list if one guy emerges

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