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Jarrett Allen 2018-19 Season Outlook


Stefan
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OH YEAH BABY ! I'm so hyped about this guy !

What do you think... 7th - 8th round ADP with 5th round upside ? (H2H redraft)

HIM and John Collins... OH Dear GOD ! I got to own them... (my dream C duo)

 

Edited by Stefan
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The team goes wherever D'Angelo goes. But no doubt Allen is a main piece towards their rebuild. 

 

He's better suited for Roto than H2H in my opinion, but definitely rosterable for either format. He should have a great season with little depth they have at the 5. Don't expect alot of points, but elite blocks, percentages, and good rebounds. 

 

Edited by Trench Mob
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Points should hover around 12 and blocks around 2.  

 

Likely rebound output is high 7.  Very optimistic estimate could be low 10 but I would be surprised.   That's a difference between 7th round and 5th round value.  

 

Would take him and John Collins over guys like Ibaka and Julius Randle.  Using a 7th round or later pick would be pretty good value.  I think these guys are going to be hyped enough by September to where people are just going to reach in the 5th round though.  

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28 minutes ago, Airball B said:

Points should hover around 12 and blocks around 2.  

 

Likely rebound output is high 7.  Very optimistic estimate could be low 10 but I would be surprised.   That's a difference between 7th round and 5th round value.  

 

Would take him and John Collins over guys like Ibaka and Julius Randle.  Using a 7th round or later pick would be pretty good value.  I think these guys are going to be hyped enough by September to where people are just going to reach in the 5th round though.  

I agree but that’s a low bar.  Randle is not even a good fantasy player as he is only 3 cats (points, rebs, good assists for a big) and isn’t particularly efficient.  It’s difficult to take a big who doesn’t get stocks. Ibaka is old af and I think he’ll only decline from here.  As he was barely top 75 last year I don’t think he’ll last even inside the top 100 for too much longer. 

 

That said, I think your predictions on Allen are on point. 

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6 hours ago, Stefan said:

OH YEAH BABY ! I'm so hyped about this guy !

What do you think... 7th - 8th round ADP with 5th round upside ? (H2H redraft)

HIM and John Collins... OH Dear GOD ! I got to own them... (my dream C duo)

 

I'm in a keeper league 9 cat and am keeping both Collins and Allen to go with Jokic as my bigs :) so keen to see Allen this season. Plenty of upside :)

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He had a 3.0 blk% last year (87th Percentile). Should average 2 BPG with 75+ FT%

 

In terms of his effect on the team he was fairly average on offense and defense, but he is also still 20 years old and has the tools to be very fantasy friendly.

 

12 Pts, 8 Rebs, 2 Blks, 50+ FG%/75+ FT% is reasonable and easily top 75 

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I don't think he's too similar to Ibaka as Ibaka has more range.  Also, Ibaka's insane blocks early in his career was an outlier even for the best shot-blocking bigs.  If you look at his per 36 minutes and round down to 30mph he should be around 12/7 with 2 blocks on excellent efficiency.  That should push him into top 50 territory but realistically prime Ibaka was in a league of his own.

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1 hour ago, rob0403 said:

What is his ceiling this year? A Gobert lite? I think he will be a good source of blocks tho.

I don’t think that’s a good comp.  I don’t think he will ever get the boards and blocks of Stifle, particularly not next year, although he could get 80% of what Stifle gets.  Also Allen makes his free throws.  I think I better comp is Myles Turner.  

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1 hour ago, StifleTower2 said:

I don’t think that’s a good comp.  I don’t think he will ever get the boards and blocks of Stifle, particularly not next year, although he could get 80% of what Stifle gets.  Also Allen makes his free throws.  I think I better comp is Myles Turner.  

I was thinking of Turner but Turner should be hitting some threes unlike Allen though.

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3 hours ago, rob0403 said:

What is his ceiling this year? A Gobert lite? I think he will be a good source of blocks tho.

This is going to make people throw up in their mouths a little, but I would say he is Jonas Valanciunas on PED's with comparable stats plus 1-1.5 blocks. 

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24 minutes ago, thezing1 said:

This is going to make people throw up in their mouths a little, but I would say he is Jonas Valanciunas on PED's with comparable stats plus 1-1.5 blocks. 

I actually think that’s a good comp as neither have range nor are they big offensive threats but both are good FT bigs which is good for roto.  I’ll also note that adding 1.2 blocks to a player is a huge upgrade as the median for blocks is .6.  So adding 1.2 blocks is like adding 3 threes, or 2.2 steals,  or 7 assists, etc.  It’s actually a huge difference.  

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1 minute ago, StifleTower2 said:

I actually think that’s a good comp as neither have range nor are they big offensive threats but both are good FT bigs which is good for roto.  I’ll also note that adding 1.2 blocks to a player is a huge upgrade as the median for blocks is .6.  So adding 1.2 blocks is like adding 3 threes, or 2.2 steals,  or 7 assists, etc.  It’s actually a huge difference.  

Well, it's like adding half that lol, but yeah, it's a huge difference. Adding a tenth of a block can make a huge difference, tbh.

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7 minutes ago, miasma16 said:

Well, it's like adding half that lol, but yeah, it's a huge difference. Adding a tenth of a block can make a huge difference, tbh.

Not following you...the median for blocks is .6 so adding 1.2 blocks to someone is adding double the median in that category.  The median for steals for example is 1.1 and double of that is 2.2.  So I’m saying 1.2 blocks in a category is as impactful as adding 2.2 steals to that category.  I agree with your conclusion that adding even a paltry sum to blocks is meaningful as it’s such a scarce cat. It’s the scarcest stat by far. 

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