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Jarrett Allen 2018-19 Season Outlook


Stefan
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5 hours ago, StifleTower2 said:

I’m not burning a top 50 pick for Allen.  I like listening to/reading Mike Gallagher’s work just to see what everyone else is doing.  The problem is that people listen to the experts and it becomes a bit of an echo chamber where dissent isn’t encouraged. I got burnt one year by Danny Green and Nerlens Noel and after that told myself that I wasn’t going to fall for these low volume break out candidate roto darlings again.  Another personal problem is that I barely watched Allen play last year (I have since watched some clips) and nothing about his statistical profile including his performance late in the season suggests he will be top 50.  So I would entirely be basing my decision off Gallagher’s intuition who is the same person who touted Chriss and Boban last season.  I know that sometimes even the experts can get things wrong so I can forgive last years disaster picks from Gallagher but that also doesn’t mean taking his word for it either.  Last season Allen was top 100 toward the end of the season so if you can get him around 90 I think that’s a safe bet with upside.  He’s likely good for 12/8 with 2 blocks and excellent percentages which would put him around 75 so I would consider that the most likely outcome with 60ish being the ceiling and 100 the floor.  The problem is most people are drafting him at his ceiling in which case I’ll pass. 

so basically similar to Dieng 2 years ago when he was ranked in the mid 40's I believe.  I got burned so bad on him...hated him ever since.

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41 minutes ago, colepenhagen said:

@StifleTower2 wouldn't 12/8 2 blks on excellent % be top 50ish. kantar was top 50 with 14/11 no stocks on elite %'s

turner was 12.7/6.4 1.8blks on 48/77 with 1 three (allens %should make up for 1 three)

 

 

It depends on how elite the percentages and how everyone else does.  But it would be in the ballpark.  Realistically there’s very little difference between the 50th and say 70th ranked players.  

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4 hours ago, StifleTower2 said:

It depends on how elite the percentages and how everyone else does.  But it would be in the ballpark.  Realistically there’s very little difference between the 50th and say 70th ranked players.  

People get so wrapped up in a ranking when the differences are so minor in tiers. It is all about roster construction. 

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12 hours ago, thezing1 said:

People get so wrapped up in a ranking when the differences are so minor in tiers. It is all about roster construction. 

statistically same difference between top 50 and top 70 and top 50 and top 35 value wise according to bbm

so yea obviously players in certain builds will be better than their o-rank but with allen the stats he provides are harder to find a big that gets blks with fg% and ft%. let me know where you going to find that after pick 50

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9 hours ago, colepenhagen said:

statistically same difference between top 50 and top 70 and top 50 and top 35 value wise according to bbm

so yea obviously players in certain builds will be better than their o-rank but with allen the stats he provides are harder to find a big that gets blks with fg% and ft%. let me know where you going to find that after pick 50

I never said anything about Allen's ranking and alternatives to his stat line. I commented on people fixating on ADP vs. ranking. If you want my personal opinion, I love Allen. I really like what he does on the court. I really wish he was on the court more often, but I don't think that is the Nets way. I think they are fundamentally opposed to playing their guys more than 28-32 mpg. But Allen can still do plenty of work in 29 mpg. 

 

11 hours ago, JaydensGuys said:

This forum has ruined his draftabiliy, people neednto find their diamonds in the rough and be quiet about them ?

This forum has nothing to do with it. All you have to do is look at blocks that don't hurt your FT% and Allen pops off the page. Or, you just have to pay some attention to basketball and remember some of his stat lines from last year. He went 36th in my 8 cat roto draft. That is just one person committing to their thoughts on a player and making the decision to roll with it. All the rankings, ADP, blah blah blah doesn't matter when it only takes 1 person in a draft to through things off by having conviction and following through with it....and that is the way it should be. 

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Missed alot of point blank shots but not a terrible line for 18 minutes. Watching him today just reminded me about his poor rebounding. There are plenty of bigs in the east that live on the glass similar to Kanter and it’ll be hard for Allen to take that next step if he’s getting killed on the glass every other night.

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4 hours ago, My Dinner With Andre said:

 

With elite percentages, that line plays.

No. If you score 8 points there can't be elite percentages. I mean it can be 3 of 3 FG and 2 of 2 FT, but it doesn't help much if your other player shoots 5 of 20.

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2 minutes ago, apatas said:

No. If you score 8 points there can't be elite percentages. I mean it can be 3 of 3 FG and 2 of 2 FT, but it doesn't help much if your other player shoots 5 of 20.

In one day it may not make the biggest difference, but over the course of a week where he plays 3 or 4 games, those numbers add up. Anyone can go 5-20 on a given night, but if you're drafting players who routinely shoot like that, your FG% will be taking too many hits where even the big impact high FG% can't help too much. 

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31 minutes ago, theantishere said:

In one day it may not make the biggest difference, but over the course of a week where he plays 3 or 4 games, those numbers add up. Anyone can go 5-20 on a given night, but if you're drafting players who routinely shoot like that, your FG% will be taking too many hits where even the big impact high FG% can't help too much. 

it will help with FG%  but it will ruin your chances to win points that week. 

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It seems as if this comes up every year.  No, a low volume high efficiency player cannot make up for a high volume low efficiency player.  That’s just common sense.  But not everyone is drafting Westbrook it the first round and PG13 in the second.  The advantage to players like this is that if you start off with an efficient team for example KAT, Jrue Holiday, Bledsoe etc then he won’t hurt your already efficient team.  Yes, there’s a difference between having actively helpful percentages and percentages that aren’t harmful.  To put it simply there are three modes of efficiency: helpful, neither helpful nor harmful, harmful.  He is somewhere between helpful and neutral.  That’s still better than players who are actively harmful.  

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3 minutes ago, StifleTower2 said:

It seems as if this comes up every year.  No, a low volume high efficiency player cannot make up for a high volume low efficiency player.  That’s just common sense.  But not everyone is drafting Westbrook it the first round and PG13 in the second.  The advantage to players like this is that if you start off with an efficient team for example KAT, Jrue Holiday, Bledsoe etc then he won’t hurt your already efficient team.  Yes, there’s a difference between having actively helpful percentages and percentages that aren’t harmful.  To put it simply there are three modes of efficiency: helpful, neither helpful nor harmful, harmful.  He is somewhere between helpful and neutral.  That’s still better than players who are actively harmful.  

This is the way i drafted, KAT, Jrue, Capela, Rubio etc. As a third big you need Jarrett to do very little to fit the build.

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Its so funny how quickly people hype up players, but are also so quick to diss them after one bad game. He played only 18 minutes guys, settle. If he plays 18 minutes and gets 7 rebounds with 2 blocks imagine what he is doing with 25+ minutes? He also had a bad shooting night, which all players do. He will be fine, stop overreacting to one game. He should be good for around 10 points, 10 rebounds and over 2 blocks a game in a very thin front court in Brooklyn. People hyped him up to be the best centre in the game and now have made him seem like you wouldn't look twice at him. Let the kid play.

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