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Cordarrelle Patterson 2018 Outlook


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2 minutes ago, nonstopfan said:

 

12th round??? I'll rather have the upside of guys like Anthony Miller, Allison, Lockett, Doctson, Matthews, Ross, Godwin, etc.

 

Maybe 16th round before kicker?

Patterson is as talented as any of them... has a path to targets if he steps up... and only Allison has a comparable offense... regardless of round...Patterson is a smart flier

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23 minutes ago, jmausen said:

 

Here is the lowdown:

Kid did 2 years in Junior College.

Transferred to TEN: 1st team SEC

After 1 year of division 1 football, he was drafted in the 1st round.

 

After 5 seasons in the NFL, he has been a 1st team all-pro 2 times and a 2nd team all-pro once.

3 out of 5 years in the NFL, he's been an all-freakin-pro.  Peyton had 7-1st and 3-2nds.  Brady only has 3-1sts and 2-2nds.  All-Pro nods are HARD!  

 

2 years of junior college is bad on the resume.  He didn't learn anything.

His first year at TEN was essentially his Freshman year.  He's been learning on the job ever since.

 

Brady and Gronk force the field wide open.  If he listens to BB and runs his routes, dude is gold.  You know Brady isn't misreading him for a 12 point fantasy pass.

They even did screen plays with Gronk blocking for Cooks inside the 5 last year.  Pissed me off.

 

This is the kid every coach wants to get the ball to.  Period.  They traded for him 2 weeks before they unloaded Cooks.  He's their deep plan.  Book it.

 

 

In fairness though he was all-pro as a kick returner, not a wide receiver.. still an impressive feat but they are completely different achievements.

 

Patterson's issue has always been his inability to run routes and deal with getting jammed/breaking away from aggressive corners, he flourishes in the open field but in order to get him in those situations you need to run very specific plays catered to him. The problems he had in Minnesota (other than shaky QB play) was that whenever he was on the field it assisted the defense due to the number of passing play options getting cut down drastically, he didn't have a "traditional" route tree so unless he was coming for an end around or a screen he wasn't a consistent threat... in short he had become a personnel liability.

 

Now I get New England is a completely different team but in order to buy in on Patterson you really have to believe he has become a great route runner all of a sudden, otherwise the same issue that Minnesota experienced will also occur in New England. He has amazing speed and can shake guys in the open field but that doesn't translate to being an effective WR (see Devin Hester and other return specialists that were never capable of transitioning into WRs). I still think he will line up occasionally at WR but certainly not at very high rate, New England will likely have designed plays for him but unless he seriously has made great strides as a route runner he likely won't be on the field all that much.. certainly not in a 2017 Cooks role. 

 

With all that said, I just can't see him being effective for fantasy purposes other than being a guy you throw in out of desperation and hope he hits on a huge play. I think New England brought him in because he is an elite return man and that's an area that they've needed to upgrade for a few years now (especially with Dion Lewis being gone now), anything he provides as a WR is just an added bonus for them.

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1 hour ago, jmausen said:

 

Here is the lowdown:

Kid did 2 years in Junior College.

Transferred to TEN: 1st team SEC

After 1 year of division 1 football, he was drafted in the 1st round.

 

After 5 seasons in the NFL, he has been a 1st team all-pro 2 times and a 2nd team all-pro once.

3 out of 5 years in the NFL, he's been an all-freakin-pro.  Peyton had 7-1st and 3-2nds.  Brady only has 3-1sts and 2-2nds.  All-Pro nods are HARD!  

 

2 years of junior college is bad on the resume.  He didn't learn anything.

His first year at TEN was essentially his Freshman year.  He's been learning on the job ever since.

 

Brady and Gronk force the field wide open.  If he listens to BB and runs his routes, dude is gold.  You know Brady isn't misreading him for a 12 point fantasy pass.

They even did screen plays with Gronk blocking for Cooks inside the 5 last year.  Pissed me off.

 

This is the kid every coach wants to get the ball to.  Period.  They traded for him 2 weeks before they unloaded Cooks.  He's their deep plan.  Book it.

 

He was all-pro as a kick returner.

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Patterson is worth a last round pick in the draft like a kicker. But not anything else. Patterson has plenty of athleticism, but to say he has talent to play the WR position is false. He has proven that so far in his career. He isn't a young player just off his rookie contract. He is a good returner. He can make plays on screens, but asking him to do much else is a waste of a roster spot.

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2 hours ago, devaster said:

He isn't a young player just off his rookie contract.

Actually, he kinda is.  He's just turned 27 a few months ago, 2016 was the final year of his rookie contract.  Last season was the first year off his rookie contract.

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1 minute ago, FFCollusion said:

Actually, he kinda is.  He's just turned 27 a few months ago, 2016 was the final year of his rookie contract.  Last season was the first year off his rookie contract.

And he kinda isn't. This will be his 6th season.

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3 minutes ago, devaster said:

And he kinda isn't. This will be his 6th season.

Even if we measure by seasons, who cares?  He's still younger than 80% of the elite WRs that will be drafted in the 1st and 2nd rounds, so what meaning does it carry?  NONE.  AB is 30, Green, Julio, Hilton, Alshon, Baldwin, Fitz, Demaryius, Theilen, M.Jones, Josh Gordon, Tate, Crabtree, Sanders, Hogan, Benjamin, Dez, the list goes on.  All the same age or older than CP84.

 

More importantly, when his seasons only include ~100 routes run, then it significantly alters his 'NFL age' anyways.

The same reason we measure RBs in carries, not human years, or NFL seasons.

 

The average age of a WR's peak season? 27.35

The prime of a WR's career? 25-29

 

There are so many other legit reasons to be skeptical of CP84's fantasy production this year, I promise his age isn't one of them.

It's a terrible argument, just move on.

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Patterson was a borderline top-10 dynasty asset, briefly, after he exploded at the end of his rookie year:

 

2013:

Week 14: 5 catches, 141 yards, TD. 1 carry, 6 yards rushing. 

Week 15: 5 catches, 35 yards. 2 carries, 15 yards rushing.

Week 16: 3 catches, 8 yards. 3 carries, 54 yards, TD rushing.

Week 17: 2 catches, 31 yards, TD. 2 carries 54 yards, TD rushing. 

 

This was as a RAW rookie. They schemed him the ball in space and let him weave through defenses for chunk plays and long TDs. It was a lot of fun. 

 

Ancient history now, I just thought I'd point it out that at one time he was thought of as an elite offensive weapon. I don't think he's lost the ability to run by/around people. I'm more than a little intrigued to see what the Patriots/McDaniels can do with this guy. 

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10 minutes ago, FFCollusion said:

Even if we measure by seasons, who cares?  He's still younger than 80% of the elite WRs that will be drafted in the 1st and 2nd rounds, so what meaning does it carry?  NONE.  AB is 30, Green, Julio, Hilton, Alshon, Baldwin, Fitz, Demaryius, Theilen, M.Jones, Josh Gordon, Tate, Crabtree, Sanders, Hogan, Benjamin, Dez, the list goes on.  All the same age or older than CP84.

 

More importantly, when his seasons only include ~100 routes run, then it significantly alters his 'NFL age' anyways.

The same reason we measure RBs in carries, not human years, or NFL seasons.

 

The average age of a WR's peak season? 27.35

The prime of a WR's career? 25-29

 

There are so many other legit reasons to be skeptical of CP84's fantasy production this year, I promise his age isn't one of them.

It's a terrible argument, just move on.

I wasn't the one that honed in on one part of my argument to nit-pick it. He has been around a while. He will continue to be around a while as a returner. Expecting anything else is wishful thinking. I'd still probably leave him on waivers unless the benches are deep enough to draft him in the last round.

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BB's first comment to this guy was that "they are going to make him the player he should be" - paraphrasing. 

 

I don't see the mo' building for Dorsett.  I don't see the mo' building for Hollister or Lucien.  I see a Patterson, Hogan, White, Gronk show for the first four weeks until Edelman comes into play.  Not stretching for Patterson but I will be looking for him on the FA list.

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6 hours ago, CyberneticGhostOfXMasPast said:

 

@ 30 seconds ... a blade or 2 of grass from ripping off a huge TD.

 

He is a legit threat to score every time he touches the ball ... and I fully expect NE to find ways to do so - at least while Edelman is out. This passing game is Gronk, Hogan, and then up for grabs. 

 

If Patterson really has put in the work, Sky is the limit 

I’ll go ya one better.

 

Players returning from PED suspensions are often like Popeye minus spinach. 

 

No for real this is a thing.

 

I don’t have the stats to back it up but yanno...I heard Dave Richard claim it so...yanno.

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He's the ultimate wild card this year. When you think of the targets missing from last year, Edelman's suspenson, Tom Brady's passing offense, and Patterson generally being an unknown in terms of receiving ability, he could be anywhere from Randy Moss to Aaron Dobson. I'm not buying the assessments that he doesn't have any receiving ability. 

 

4 hours ago, MoonBlaster said:

Now I get New England is a completely different team but in order to buy in on Patterson you really have to believe he has become a great route runner all of a sudden, otherwise the same issue that Minnesota experienced will also occur in New England. He has amazing speed and can shake guys in the open field but that doesn't translate to being an effective WR... 

 

He's playing with the greatest QB of all time now -- So I think Brady is certainly capable of masking a lot of his WRs deficiencies. If Patterson's athleticism outweighs his technical issues, he's going to end up with a lot of playing time. It's not out of the question for him to have a 1000+ total yards with some big games. I'd love to have him as a WR 4/5. He's got the upside of a WR 2/3.

 

 

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This is the exact kind of player I like to take at the end of a draft.  Tons of upside, but a lot of things have to click for it to happen.  If he becomes something special you can brag to everyone in your league how you saw it coming and if he doesn't do anything then he's an easy drop for that early season free agent pick everyone missed out on. 

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20 hours ago, AirForceOne said:

He's the ultimate wild card this year. When you think of the targets missing from last year, Edelman's suspenson, Tom Brady's passing offense, and Patterson generally being an unknown in terms of receiving ability, he could be anywhere from Randy Moss to Aaron Dobson. I'm not buying the assessments that he doesn't have any receiving ability. 

 

 

He's playing with the greatest QB of all time now -- So I think Brady is certainly capable of masking a lot of his WRs deficiencies. If Patterson's athleticism outweighs his technical issues, he's going to end up with a lot of playing time. It's not out of the question for him to have a 1000+ total yards with some big games. I'd love to have him as a WR 4/5. He's got the upside of a WR 2/3.

 

 

 

That's not really how it works though. Yes, Brady is far and away the best QB Patterson will ever play with but Brady won't necessarily be able to throw Patterson open. It's still up to Patterson to get off of jammed coverage and get open on his routes and create his own separation.. Patterson is not a go up and get it receiver nor is he a true possession guy over the middle (at least thus far in his career, things can change) so he needs improved fundamentals. Furthermore I don't understand where the idea of his receiving abilities being unknown stems from. Minnesota tried to make him a true WR for a couple years and all it resulted was diminished formations and playing time for Patterson after defenses wised up to his limited skill set.

 

When the Pats line up with 3 WR and Gronk they really have to sell Patterson being a legitimate threat as a reciever beyond bubble screens and end arounds to justify him being in the formation over a more "traditional" WR.. Ideally yes Brady can hit Patterson on a few fly routes which would cause the defense to send help over the top (or jam Patterson even more), but for fantasy purposes that helps Gronk more than anybody. 

 

I still think he's worth a flier at the end of the draft if you're truly a believer, I just don't think the upside is necessarily as high as some people are making it out to seem. However it would be awesome to see Patterson actually hit a new plateau as an offensive weapon because he is tons of fun to watch, and if anyone could get him there it would be New England

 

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10 minutes ago, MoonBlaster said:

Minnesota tried to make him a true WR for a couple years and all it resulted was diminished formations and playing time for Patterson after defenses wised up to his limited skill set.

All of this. Which is why I expected NE to make him a RB, because that is where he shines. Give him the ball outside and let him use his legs.

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1 hour ago, MoonBlaster said:

 

That's not really how it works though. Yes, Brady is far and away the best QB Patterson will ever play with but Brady won't necessarily be able to throw Patterson open. It's still up to Patterson to get off of jammed coverage and get open on his routes and create his own separation.. Patterson is not a go up and get it receiver nor is he a true possession guy over the middle (at least thus far in his career, things can change) so he needs improved fundamentals. Furthermore I don't understand where the idea of his receiving abilities being unknown stems from. Minnesota tried to make him a true WR for a couple years and all it resulted was diminished formations and playing time for Patterson after defenses wised up to his limited skill set.

 

When the Pats line up with 3 WR and Gronk they really have to sell Patterson being a legitimate threat as a reciever beyond bubble screens and end arounds to justify him being in the formation over a more "traditional" WR.. Ideally yes Brady can hit Patterson on a few fly routes which would cause the defense to send help over the top (or jam Patterson even more), but for fantasy purposes that helps Gronk more than anybody. 

 

I still think he's worth a flier at the end of the draft if you're truly a believer, I just don't think the upside is necessarily as high as some people are making it out to seem. However it would be awesome to see Patterson actually hit a new plateau as an offensive weapon because he is tons of fun to watch, and if anyone could get him there it would be New England

 

Of course his upside is that high... you just may be extra skeptical of him reaching it. That's fine... he likely won't. But his speed, agility, athleticism, Brady... those things can't be taught. The route running... which people keep being concerned with... can be. He won't go undrafted in any of my leagues... 

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1 hour ago, confusedmrkrabs said:

Of course his upside is that high... you just may be extra skeptical of him reaching it. That's fine... he likely won't. But his speed, agility, athleticism, Brady... those things can't be taught. The route running... which people keep being concerned with... can be. He won't go undrafted in any of my leagues... 

People expect Brady and Belichick to transform him into a legitimate WR. It might be possible, but they run a very complicated system and most reclamation projects don't work out. Even a great like Ocho Cinco couldn't make the team due to the playbook.

 

Moss was already great. Welker was a diamond in the rough and it took Belichick and Brady pioneering the slot position for him to become relevant. And now Welker-type receivers are the mold for slot receivers. Hogan was good in Buffalo. Amendola has been good with other teams. Amendola's health has always been his problem. Tebow didn't cut it at QB for them. Most players that can't already play don't all of a sudden become studs for NE. I think they do a much better job scheming players defensively (Belichick's strength) than anything they do offensively. Most offensive player reclamation projects were already good somewhere else.

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5 minutes ago, devaster said:

People expect Brady and Belichick to transform him into a legitimate WR. It might be possible, but they run a very complicated system and most reclamation projects don't work out. Even a great like Ocho Cinco couldn't make the team due to the playbook.

 

Moss was already great. Welker was a diamond in the rough and it took Belichick and Brady pioneering the slot position for him to become relevant. And now Welker-type receivers are the mold for slot receivers. Hogan was good in Buffalo. Amendola has been good with other teams. Amendola's health has always been his problem. Tebow didn't cut it at QB for them. Most players that can't already play don't all of a sudden become studs for NE. I think they do a much better job scheming players defensively (Belichick's strength) than anything they do offensively. Most offensive player reclamation projects were already good somewhere else.

 

Nobody expects this... lol... what is so hard for you guys to understand... some people want more than WR4 upside with the last pick in their drafts... 

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3 minutes ago, confusedmrkrabs said:

Nobody expects this... lol... what is so hard for you guys to understand... some people want more than WR4 upside with the last pick in their drafts... 

There are most definitely people expecting/thinking that. I wasn't necessarily saying it was you. Was just quoting you. :)

 

We wouldn't be on the 3rd page if people didn't expect/think that.

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On 8/17/2018 at 2:44 PM, AirForceOne said:

Did you see Belichick rave on about Patterson last night? He could hardly contain his excitement!

Look at his face light up when he talks about how much progress Patterson has made!! 

 

He does look psyched. That face is like a "9" on the Bilichick excitement scale.

 

 

Bilichick.jpg

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8 minutes ago, devaster said:

There are most definitely people expecting/thinking that. I wasn't necessarily saying it was you. Was just quoting you. :)

 

We wouldn't be on the 3rd page if people didn't expect/think that.

Fair enough... anybody expecting him to be ownable by December is trippin, but I think there's a very slim chance he's a WR2 too... 

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