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Vidal Brujan, 2B, TB


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27 minutes ago, bdy1 said:

Are you in the right thread? Brujan has never finished a year with an ISO below .100. His BABIP is currently .343 (not at all high for a guy who hits  gets from home to first in < 4.2 sec). He's got a projected 60 hit tool with 5 HR in his last 200 AB. And he's not a Padre.

no.  Are you?

The poster above me asked about Xavier Edwards which is why I was making comments about him and mentioned the SD ownership.  

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Without looking at your team, you have the room. 

Oh, that absolutely isn't true in the slightest.   Brujan has to prove that upon his callup he WON'T rank in the top 22% (rounded to the nearest whole number) in total service in the class of Pla

Hes better than most of their current players

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3 hours ago, The Man said:

yes, he would be for me.  I haven't done a study, but it definitely seems to me that players who can't consistently beat .100 IsoP in the minors, just have no shot in the majors.  It's entirely possible that the entire SD Padres organization knows more than me.  12 extra base hits in 65 games is pretty scary.  He has like a .390 BABIP right now in the minors.  Better pitchers would challenge him more.  Better fielders would throw him out more often.    The fact that he doesn't strike out much will certainly help him get on base, but this profile of hitter (tiny power, lots of speed) has always concerned me because I just feel like the failure rate is so high.

 

Your not wrong on the fairure rate of Speed prospects but your whole argument on ISO is flowed. That's happens to be Slugging % minus Batting Average and if you had 2 players with the same Slugging % that would mean the player with the lower Batting Average would clearly have the better ISO. That stat is based on the Lack of power then anything else and has nothing to do with the Failure of speed prospects. Getting Stolen Bases is about the Runner being on Base to have a chance to do it. if they don't get on base enough to get there stolen Bases there teams can lose trust in them and they may not play them everyday and they might not give them the green light to run and it's not always easy to work out of it if they are not playing everyday.

So you should judge Speed Prospects on the skill to get on Base and Not there power.

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2 hours ago, The Man said:

no.  Are you?

The poster above me asked about Xavier Edwards which is why I was making comments about him and mentioned the SD ownership.  

😳yep. Wrong thread.😊'pologies. 

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The issue is that getting on base with a hit is exceedingly easier in the minors than it is in the majors because the fielders are vastly superior.  But if a guy can't hit for power off low minors players, he's going to get his a** handed to him in the majors.  

 

Someone that at least has a chance at putting a ball in a gap or over the fence will make pitchers pitch more carefully.  You can't steal first.  So pitchers aren't going to pitch around Brujan or Edwards if they know that basically the worst case is they hit a single.  So they will attack the zone.  It's happened time and time again to these speedy slap hitters.  

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57 minutes ago, The Man said:

The issue is that getting on base with a hit is exceedingly easier in the minors than it is in the majors because the fielders are vastly superior.  But if a guy can't hit for power off low minors players, he's going to get his a** handed to him in the majors.  

 

Someone that at least has a chance at putting a ball in a gap or over the fence will make pitchers pitch more carefully.  You can't steal first.  So pitchers aren't going to pitch around Brujan or Edwards if they know that basically the worst case is they hit a single.  So they will attack the zone.  It's happened time and time again to these speedy slap hitters.  

 

I understand and it is a valid point and that can and is a problem for those hitters that can't hit but it's not a given if the problem is there that they will be a bust. Even with power prospects it's not a given that they will have all that much power to start with day 1 in the minors and it can take them years to find it.

Although it's a valid point it's not fair to make it in the Vidal Brujan thread who there is no question can indeed hit. You should have made the argument in the Jorge Mateo thread who you really can question if he can hit or not.

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This is a perfect example of why analytics can’t be the end all be all. No matter how smart these nerds think they are, the eye test is still a very important metric and always will be.

1 hour ago, The Man said:

The issue is that getting on base with a hit is exceedingly easier in the minors than it is in the majors because the fielders are vastly superior.  But if a guy can't hit for power off low minors players, he's going to get his a** handed to him in the majors.  

 

Someone that at least has a chance at putting a ball in a gap or over the fence will make pitchers pitch more carefully.  You can't steal first.  So pitchers aren't going to pitch around Brujan or Edwards if they know that basically the worst case is they hit a single.  So they will attack the zone.  It's happened time and time again to these speedy slap hitters.  

 

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I agree that these empty calorie stolen base prospects with no power can be dangerous to bet on and have high bust potential, but I think it is reasonable for fantasy owners to speculate on getting another Dee Gordon, who has had some excellent fantasy seasons with an ISO that is always well below .100, including his post PED 2017 where he delivered 114 runs and 60 steals with a .067 ISO.  Since these are young players who are still developing, maybe they can even hope for a harder hitting profile than Dee Gordon, say something like 2012-2014 Altuve before he added home runs to the mix and became a mega stud.

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Most power hitting prospects are neutral at best in AVG are zeroes in SB. So in a standard 5x5 they help in 3 categories. Speed prospects usually help you 3 categories  AVG-R-SB.  

 

HR are vastly easier to find in today’s landscape than SB. I would argue that speed prospects are way more valuable than power prospects. 

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Brujan went on the IL with a wrist issue this year. For an entire month in-fact. Then you express concern about the lack of power ouput this year? 1+1 apparently equals potato's here.

Dee Gordon/Hamilton comps? Er, wut? 

 

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3 hours ago, Slatykamora said:

Brujan went on the IL with a wrist issue this year. For an entire month in-fact. Then you express concern about the lack of power ouput this year? 1+1 apparently equals potato's here.

He played 39 of his 44 games this season before the injury.  His 2018 suggests there's some pop in his profile, I'd personally just like to see it manifest itself again before being comfortable with him as a potential 5 tool prospect (I'm still high on him either way given the OBP/speed combo from the middle infield and I thought your point about him and Madrigal being at different stages of their development was a good one).

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8 hours ago, Slatykamora said:

Brujan went on the IL with a wrist issue this year. For an entire month in-fact. Then you express concern about the lack of power ouput this year? 1+1 apparently equals potato's here.

Dee Gordon/Hamilton comps? Er, wut? 

 

1.  you spelled potatoes wrong.

2.  Brujan hasn't had power his entire career except for one spell last year in high A.   So I don't know why you think his minor wrist issue this year is swaying anyone off the path here.

3.  There's no need to be nasty and condescending.  Especially when you are wrong.

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With speed becoming so scarce, and most speed guys profiling as the Punch & Judy slapper types that don't walk enough or have on base skills, Vidal is very intriguing! For those in the know, is he as crazy fast as his numbers say? Or just "fast" w/ great reads and knows how to grab a bag? Thanks in advance...

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4 hours ago, The Man said:

1.  you spelled potatoes wrong.

2.  Brujan hasn't had power his entire career except for one spell last year in high A.   So I don't know why you think his minor wrist issue this year is swaying anyone off the path here.

3.  There's no need to be nasty and condescending.  Especially when you are wrong.

I'd like you to provide some evidence that supports your theories.. you claim to be "right," but so far have provided nothing to support your claim(s) with regard to brujan or non-power prospects in general. 

Fangraphs gave him a future 45 game power (roughly 12-15 hr power) and 55 overall, raving about his athleticism in a write-up that gave some background supporting their stance. They do this for a living. They're not infallible, but until there's credible data to the contrary, I'm inclined to take their word over random-internet-dude assertions. 

I'm not saying you're wrong, I'm saying someone with credibility has stated the opposite of your claim, and the responsibility is on you to support your stance. 

 

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13 hours ago, Slatykamora said:

Brujan went on the IL with a wrist issue this year. For an entire month in-fact. Then you express concern about the lack of power ouput this year? 1+1 apparently equals potato's here.

Dee Gordon/Hamilton comps? Er, wut? 

 

 

4 hours ago, The Man said:

1.  you spelled potatoes wrong.

2.  Brujan hasn't had power his entire career except for one spell last year in high A.   So I don't know why you think his minor wrist issue this year is swaying anyone off the path here.

3.  There's no need to be nasty and condescending.  Especially when you are wrong.

 

But he's not wrong per say. He did have some power last year for a bit, It shows it's there to be able to find along the way. The road to the Majors is not as simple as you think it is. Players can have breakouts and they can be called up to the next level before they are ready and not do will and take a step back and yet still can find it again if they keep on playing.

There can be Superstars with Major Power that had it on Day one and go through the minors with it and into the Majors without losing a step. But that's the rear case and it's not reasonable to expect that to be everyone.

But on the other end the fact that there isn't power there right now doesn't mean there could be in the Future but in the interest of being fair, A wrist injury, That is an injury that can make a player to lose power and you should watch how will he rebounds from that because it could effect how good he could be. But clearly he isn't one to give up on yet.

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5 hours ago, The Man said:

1.  you spelled potatoes wrong.

2.  Brujan hasn't had power his entire career except for one spell last year in high A.   So I don't know why you think his minor wrist issue this year is swaying anyone off the path here.

3.  There's no need to be nasty and condescending.  Especially when you are wrong.

1.) Thanks

2.) You and I have a different definition of power. Especially for 21 year old... There is a difference between no power(Gordon, Hamilton) and flashing fringe/semi-respectable power. That is an important distinction in 5X5 player value.

3.) Nothing i've heard/read/saw on this guy that his bat is wet noodle like many slap hitting speed guys. He's very under-sized, that caps projection. That does not make him a zero power guy. I'm going to keep being me though. If it rubs you the wrong way, all i can do is apologize and we try to move on.

 

11 hours ago, Dark One said:

He played 39 of his 44 games this season before the injury.  His 2018 suggests there's some pop in his profile, I'd personally just like to see it manifest itself again before being comfortable with him as a potential 5 tool prospect (I'm still high on him either way given the OBP/speed combo from the middle infield and I thought your point about him and Madrigal being at different stages of their development was a good one).

We have zero clue when he hurt his wrist. Was implying it was an issue that was linger. Don't actually know for sure, but given the reports on this were very low key. Can't say for sure he was 100% healthy this year(or the opposite, so fair game)

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Hit his first AA homer yesterday. He's never going to be a huge power guy, but I can see him with an occasional season where he pops 7 to 10 or so bombs. He definitely has more power than some of the names listed in this thread. He's going to be a very good major league lead off man, IMHO. Tampa's future with him leading off and Wander hitting in the middle of the order is so bright.

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  • 4 weeks later...

He's up to 40 SBs in 73 games (316 PAs) this year. Solid BA. He has the worst k/bb ratio of his career, but it still isn't bad, and his k-rate isn't bad. 

I read today that he's likely a 2021 guy. Seems about right. 

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  • 1 year later...
On 8/13/2020 at 10:46 PM, Buddha said:

any chance him getting called up this season?

 

I wouldn't rule it out, but the Rays are very cost-conscious. Maybe more than any other team in baseball. So they'd need a good reason to do so. And I'm not sure there is at this point. Brandon Lowe is doing just fine. I don't see the Rays bringing him up to be a bench guy. So it might take some injuries or something similiar

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On 8/15/2020 at 9:22 PM, Jericho said:

 

I wouldn't rule it out, but the Rays are very cost-conscious. Maybe more than any other team in baseball. So they'd need a good reason to do so. And I'm not sure there is at this point. Brandon Lowe is doing just fine. I don't see the Rays bringing him up to be a bench guy. So it might take some injuries or something similiar

ah ok thanks, didn't realize there were contract implications with this guy. 

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