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James Conner 2018 Outlook


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6 minutes ago, OmegaRed88 said:

Why do people under the age of 30 include the word "literally" in what seems like half of everything they say.  And 95% of the time it's used completely incorrectly.  I wonder this often.

 

It literally drives me insane.

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do remember one of my favorite ever start/sit recommendations. I think it was from a guy over at FFtoday. He was discussing the Ravens upcoming week, and their kicker. And he said in the article:

 

"Start Matt Stover--he's literally on fire."

 

:| 

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16 minutes ago, Broncos132 said:

There is skill involved, yes, but it's also alot of luck. You can have the most stacked team and still easily lose due to injuries or unexpected game script. Skill in fantasy doesnt prevent injury. 

 

Yup... it takes skill to put yourself in the best possible situation to win but if you have bad luck with injuries, unexpected surprises, injuries to other key teammates etc. 

 

Also, having unexpected good luck helps. A few situations of many that come to mind.....

 

Pretty much everyone knew Mahomes was gonna be good and had all the other factors set up perfectly to succeed but who knew he’d be record breaking historically great in his first year starting? His ADP was probably around 8th round and beyond? Nobody could’ve predicted he’d be this great. 

 

De’Angelo Williams 2007 season. He played all 16 games and had 700 yards and 4 TDs. In the summer of 2008 the Panthers selected talented rookie Jonathan Stewert in the first round. Williams was most certainly drafted as an RB 4/5 bench desperation play that slipped to the final few rounds in drafts. He went on to rush for 1500 + yards and 18 TDs. Not even the biggest Williams truther/Memphis fanboy could’ve predicted that. 

 

Orange Julius, Victor Cruz, Peyton Hillis, Stevie Johnson, OBJ, Josh Gordon ... all major difference makers I got for free on the waiver or picked at the end and went on to blow up. 

 

Even if you had great skills in seeking talent, opportunity, situation, potential and upside level you’d be lying if you didn’t admit there was a lot of good luck if you ended up with any of said players. Conner was proof of that and to an additional extent with Bell’s final decision. Too bad the good luck seems to be in jeopardy even if temporary. 

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Just now, Asian Sensation said:

 

Yup... it takes skill to put yourself in the best possible situation to win but if you have bad luck with injuries, unexpected surprises, injuries to other key teammates etc. 

 

Also, having unexpected good luck helps. A few situations of many that come to mind.....

 

Pretty much everyone knew Mahomes was gonna be good and had all the other factors set up perfectly to succeed but who knew he’d be record breaking historically great in his first year starting? His ADP was probably around 8th round and beyond? Nobody could’ve predicted he’d be this great. 

 

De’Angelo Williams 2007 season. He played all 16 games and had 700 yards and 4 TDs. In the summer of 2008 the Panthers selected talented rookie Jonathan Stewert in the first round. Williams was most certainly drafted as an RB 4/5 bench desperation play that slipped to the final few rounds in drafts. He went on to rush for 1500 + yards and 18 TDs. Not even the biggest Williams truther/Memphis fanboy could’ve predicted that. 

 

Orange Julius, Victor Cruz, Peyton Hillis, Stevie Johnson, OBJ, Josh Gordon ... all major difference makers I got for free on the waiver or picked at the end and went on to blow up. 

 

Even if you had great skills in seeking talent, opportunity, situation, potential and upside level you’d be lying if you didn’t admit there was a lot of good luck if you ended up with any of said players. Conner was proof of that and to an additional extent with Bell’s final decision. Too bad the good luck seems to be in jeopardy even if temporary. 

 

Very well explained.

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9 minutes ago, OmegaRed88 said:

fer deal?

 

link us

 

https://www.behindthesteelcurtain.com/2018/12/3/18123284/james-conner-one-of-several-players-injured-in-steelers-loss-to-chargers-nfl-news-ryan-switzer

 

the article mentions how he walked around the locker room without a limp, but isn't sure how he would be tomorrow 

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1 hour ago, Broncos132 said:

There is skill involved, yes, but it's also alot of luck. You can have the most stacked team and still easily lose due to injuries or unexpected game script. Skill in fantasy doesnt prevent injury. 

I just try to get into the playoffs. An individual that is good at fantasy should be able to do so most of the time through studying the draft, working the wire, playing match ups, and etc. 

 

However, once in I don't give a single damn. Don't get me wrong, i still cheer for my team and get upset if I lose but I don't let it bother me past Sunday. Much like in a single elimination format like March Madness, a FAR superior team can lose because of a bad night. Granted, you would beat the team you lost to 9/10 but you didn't because it's one game. 

 

I still remember in 2014 when some dude in one of my leagues had 2 top 5 RBs, 2 top 3 WRs, a top 3 QB, and multiple other total studs in the top 10-15. He didn't even make the finals. The point is, the playoffs are an extraordinary amount of luck.

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2 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

The point is, the playoffs are an extraordinary amount of luck.

 

There isn't any more luck in a playoff week than any single week of the regular season. The difference is that you don't get booted out for a loss in the regular season. But there aren't any more factors of luck, or skill, at play in Week 14 than there are in Week 10. Your point is well taken, though, that it makes some sense to not be so concerned once you're into the playoffs, just because that same amount of luck is now deadly :)  

 

Plus, once you make the playoffs, you're guaranteed a least a little bragging rights for the next year. 

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1 hour ago, Random Dude said:

 

 

Anyone who is good and has been playing a long time knows that fantasy sports are not about luck... Sh*t happens to good and bad players, but in the long run, skill plays a major part. 

No, fantasy football is 90% luck.

Skill does not play nearly as much of a factor in the outcome as it does in other fantasy sports. Especially when compared to baseball.

 

For example, we're all extremely lucky Le'Veon was kind enough to allow Conner to give us a fantastic season!

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6 minutes ago, Brotherbock said:

 

There isn't any more luck in a playoff week than any single week of the regular season. The difference is that you don't get booted out for a loss in the regular season. But there aren't any more factors of luck, or skill, at play in Week 14 than there are in Week 10. Your point is well taken, though, that it makes some sense to not be so concerned once you're into the playoffs, just because that same amount of luck is now deadly :)  

 

Plus, once you make the playoffs, you're guaranteed a least a little bragging rights for the next year. 

Of course there isn’t a different amount of luck. However, over an entire season the law of averages is most likely going to play a role. You lose some you should win, win some you should lose, and etc. Final standings usually fairly accurately reflect how good teams are (minus the occasional lucky or unlucky anomaly).

 

However, once in the playoffs it’s do or die like you mention. So guess what? If your Gurley, Chubb, Hill, Thielen, and Ertz get out scored by Breida, Miller, Cooper, Gordon, and Hooper your team is now “inferior” to that team. 

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1 minute ago, Gohawks said:

Of course there isn’t a different amount of luck. However, over an entire season the law of averages is most likely going to play a role. You lose some you should win, win some you should lose, and etc. Final standings usually fairly accurately reflect how good teams are (minus the occasional lucky or unlucky anomaly).

 

However, once in the playoffs it’s do or die like you mention. So guess what? If your Gurley, Chubb, Hill, Thielen, and Ertz get out scored by Breida, Miller, Cooper, Gordon, and Hooper your team is now “inferior” to that team. 

 

Right, we're in agreement. It's not more luck, it's just the same amount of luck with a possible sudden and painful end :)

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12 minutes ago, Brotherbock said:

 

What's the math that leads you to that number, as opposed to just saying 'a lot of luck'?

Standard sized fantast football leagues start 7 - 9 skill players (in addition to D + K which we can all agree is just random week to week variance), who score points once per week, for 13 weeks.

Now compare that to fantasy baseball, where ~13 players (hitters) affect scoring 6-7 times per week, and another 8-12 players (pitchers) score anywhere from 1-4 times per week, for 22 weeks.

 

Which sample size do you think is more prone to be influenced by random variance? In which game do you think a single player's variance (ie good or bad luck) can have a bigger impact on the season? 

 

"90% luck" was onv hyperbole, but you can run the numbers yourself to see how much more luck is involved than a fantasy sport like baseball. 

 

Speaking of luck, let's hope Conner went into the exam room with a horseshoe up his a**!

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4 minutes ago, oban14 said:

Making the playoffs=70% luck.

Winning the playoffs=100% luck.

70 is way too high. But whatever helps you guys cope with the fact that you’re not very good at managing fake football teams.

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7 minutes ago, oban14 said:

Making the playoffs=70% luck.

Winning the playoffs=100% luck.

Saying any game that requires any amount of knowledge (which fantasy does) is 100% is an absolutely absurd claim. 

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9 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

Way too early to be making such a claim. 

 

I sort of agree with you but the fact that he walked out of the locker room and wasn’t limping like he did coming off the field is a great sign. 

It may hurt him in the morning or he may feel pretty good. So far reports are about as good as I could have hoped for. Hopefully we dodged a bullet but we won’t know for sure until Monday or Tuesday. 

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