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Kris Dunn 2018-2019 Season Thread


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Kris Dunn is a defensive minded (#2 in the NBA in steals last year with 2.0 steals per game) pass-first (7.0 APG, among top 10 in the league) point guard who has issues scoring but still ranked in the

He is doing fine. He getting back into game shape and the flow of the team after being like 2 months out. He isn’t even starting or cleared to play 30 minutes yet. This should have been the expectatio

It’s better for Dunn to have less volume of shots. With more quality offensive options around him his dimes can increase and the shots he does take can be of higher quality leading to better efficienc

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3 hours ago, El_Chingon said:

But....but....he doesn't make threes and lavine will kill his usage!

 

Man Lavine is just an old school ball hog, he is a bad defender literally stands at the top of the arc demanding the ball the whole time on offense. He needs to smarten up quick, if he learns to play the team game he could be a nice player, but he is all about Zac Lavine and that hurts his team. The rest of them play nice two-way action...Watching them I think Dunn will have a nice year, nothing special, but solid and he has a higher ceiling if the coach can get Lavine into line

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11 hours ago, Kriggly said:

I think Dunn's value is pretty solid if he can stay healthy.  Essentially elite assists and steals with decent points and positional rebounds.  His injury history and the Bull's fantasy playoffs schedule would make me want to sell if he can string together a month of good production, though.  I drafted him but jumped ship after his knee sprain.    

 

This is logical and a legitimate reason to possibly sell Dunn.

 

Lavine’s usage and a lack of threes are not legitimate reasons.  Lavine’s return has had zero effect on Dunn (at least so far) and people should have never expected threes from Dunn. 

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6 minutes ago, Purple Hippo said:

 

This is logical and a legitimate reason to possibly sell Dunn.

 

Lavine’s usage and a lack of threes are not legitimate reasons.  Lavine’s return has had zero effect on Dunn (at least so far) and people should have never expected threes from Dunn. 

 

I agree if it were H2H but for those who play 9 cat roto, that might be a little different.

 

 I think having lavine helps out compared to what people think, it allows Dunn to do what he’s great at, penetrate and find teammates because defenses have to stay home on lavine, Lauri, and holiday... just gives him more room and I think that’s why he maintains his fg% but I don’t expect any more 3s from him unless it’s wide open off a kick out with a packed lane and no extra swing pass to a better shooter...

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12 hours ago, Dominator83 said:

I watched the game, and I can say there was atleast 4 shots of his that went in and out. Plus the usual 2-3 assists that teammates couldn't finish. Atleast he's always in position to have big lines

 

Yup plus he had 2 should've been steals...one went off someone and out of bounds, the other hit him in the chest and he flukily just dropped it (he was already trying to jump start the break but lost the ball in the process).  So steals will come.  Good news the blocks are back and he should be between 0.5-0.8 rest of way

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1 hour ago, My Dinner With Andre said:

1.5 steals per game since Dunn's come back and had the minutes restriction lifted...

 

DeliciousMilkyAmethystgemclam-size_restr

 

It's still vastly below his capability. His per 36 steals last year were 2.5, this year it's 1.4. That's analgous to a guy going from 10 rebounds to 5.6 or 20 points to 11.2. We aren't supposed to notice a decline of such a degree?

 

He has been a good fantasy asset and he will be even more valuable when his steals regress positively but whether he finishes with 1.6 or 2.2 as his average will make a big difference in his final value.

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I tried to find something in the data to help us understand the steals trend. Here were my working theories:

 

1) Slower pace of Boylen is lowering steals.

2) Changed defensive schemes and strategy are causing lower steals from the PG position.

3) Dunn is a changed player who can't get steals at such a high rate anymore, regardless of coach or scheme.

4) Dunn started slow, and is ramping back to his norm.

 

To look at this, I analyzed the games prior to the coaching change. Two PGs started. First Payne, then Arcidiacono. Archidiacono is interesting, because he started 12 games with Hoiberg, then 11 games with Boylen. His steals WENT UP, from 1.0 under Hoiberg to 1.3 under Boylen. Not what I expected.

 

There were no injuries for Arcidiacono that I can tell. So he was the same player, with the same skills, playing under two different coaches/systems. 

 

What this tells me is that system and coach are not the cause of Dunn's steals slowdown. So the only theory I have left is that Dunn was a slower player when he came back. Next question for me is whether Dunn is going to stay this way, or if there is a trend back to his 2-steal average.

 

If you look at Dunn's steals per game since he came back, you see a chart like this one below. I see the peaks trending in the right direction. Means he is getting better. Trend is right. Given what I saw when he came back, I know he didn't have quick legs to start. I know from experience that pro players take time to fully recover from an MCL. And I know he is 24 years old, so he is not in any physical decline.

 

I'm going out on a limb, and predicting we will start seeing some 3-steal games peppered in, and the average creeping back up to 2 steals. A month from now, we will not be talking about the steals problem.

 

image.png.413980c83d5c50feb5901393b6ac7482.png

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