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Jared Cook 2018 Outlook


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2 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

Tell us about the first time, oh wise old wizard.

 

The year was 2012. A bright young TE for the Tennessee Titans was coming off a season where he amassed almost 800 yards through the air despite only starting 5 games. Now that’s what I call production. Full of excitement and optimism I made it my mission to add such a young and budding talent to my fake football roster. I would be set it and forget it for the full season after obtaining such a talented physical beast!

 

44/523/4 womp womp

 

and that’s to say nothing about the stints with the Rams and Packers 

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Cook's 2017 just for reference:  

This is pretty vague, lots of different league sizes out there.  Maybe a TE2 in 10 teamers.  Definitely in the low-end TE1 discussion in 12+ teams.     Speaking of convenient argument

This is what Jared Cook does. Have 1 or 2 monster games a year and be mediocre the rest. Definitely worth a flier but don't waste big FAAB on this guy. With Crabtree out of the mix he could certainly

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Anyway, Cook looked great out there last night. Plenty of targets and catches. I know he's been this way in the past, so just beware. 

 

I know last year Cook had 1 or 2 outliers where he had a game just like this and then returned to be subpar for the rest of the season.

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49 minutes ago, lolcopter said:

 

That being said another big week against Denver is very possible, they can’t cover TE at all

 

Most of his schedule looks like swiss cheese matchups

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He was definitely a big part of the game plan.  he lined up more like a receiver for much of the night and was targeted in the endzone on a Carr INT.  Question is if this is a season-long strategy or one night game plan.  Setting a career high in yardage in game 1 is enough to convince me to roster him. I'm thinking he is worth at high waiver spot and 15% of FAAB. Nobody should leave him on the wire.  I missed him but am thinking about offering Cobb for him.

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16 minutes ago, suburbanguk said:

He was definitely a big part of the game plan.  he lined up more like a receiver for much of the night and was targeted in the endzone on a Carr INT.  Question is if this is a season-long strategy or one night game plan.  Setting a career high in yardage in game 1 is enough to convince me to roster him. I'm thinking he is worth at high waiver spot and 15% of FAAB. Nobody should leave him on the wire.  I missed him but am thinking about offering Cobb for him.

 

His was lined up as a receiver A LOT

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1 hour ago, oresteszero said:

I can see it now....

"Wow Jared Cook... 9 catches for 180 yds!! Wow!! I'm going to start him next week!!"


*next week arrives*


"Wow.. Jared Cook... 2 catches for 11 yards??? What the hell....."

 

What TE outside the top 3-5 doesn't have those games?

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I think the big factor in all of this, which could be pointing to an increase in Cook's usage this year, is that there are 140+ targets missing from last year's team (101 from Crabtree, 42 from Patterson, smaller numbers from some other bit players).  The assumption seemed to be that Jordy Nelson was going to soak up a lot of these targets, but I'm not sure he has enough gas left in the tank to take that many targets away.  

 

Clearly it was a bit of a weird night / out of the ordinary seeing as Cook saw 12 targets, Richard saw 11 targets, and Cooper and Nelson only saw a combined 7 targets.  I don't think anyone should expect double digit targets every week, that's for sure.  But last year Cook was TE12 in PPR, and that was with 86 targets and only 2 TD's.  Meanwhile the Raiders lost 140+ targets overall, and 8 TD's from Crabs, who was a RZ favorite of Carr. 

 

Even if Cook picked up 15-20 of those targets, plus a little more RZ work with Crabtree gone, you would see 800-850 yards (from 688), 60-some receptions (from 54), and arbitrarily say 5 TDs (from 2), that would have been good for 180 PPR pts and TE3 last year.  Trying to project his year based on a 9-180 Week 1 stat line seems ridiculous, but when you break it down into terms of how close he was to being a top-5 TE last year, and that another 15-20 targets (out of 140+ up for grabs) could get him there, it seems a lot more attainable.  

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Im using my 1 waiver wire on him even though I have reed and Kelce. Gruden stated cooper would be vocal point of offense but clearly that was Cook. He lined up everywhere including out wide a lot. Good speed and huge body and what looks to be good hands. With olsen and Walker out, great time to pick him up and try to move him while he is hot. He is a mismatch for most teams. Raiders line looks mediocre at best defending the pass and that leads to quicker throws to TEs who are normally closer to the qb.

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Cooks is gonna be my top target in waivers since i lost delanie to injury. A lot on here seem to think he will regress to his production last season. I offer this as a counter argument: lets think about everything that has changed in the last year. New HC, new OC, new RBs, new vet WR. Those are a few of the changes that come to mind on offense, but there are probably more. It's very likely the offense schemes have changed for the raiders. So, with all those changes in mind, what about his performance makes you think this is just an outlier?

 

 

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7 hours ago, FFCollusion said:
 

Cook quietly finished as a top 12 TE last season, despite only 2 TDs, in his first year with the Raiders.

 

Now in his second year, Crabtree is gone, Amari is still one of the worst red zone threats in the NFL, the jury is out on Jordy, and the Raiders defense took a massive hit when Mack walked out the door.

Cook is an absolute physical freak, who was praised by Gruden all off season, and anyone who watched the game tonight, can't possibly think he only got targeted because of the strong CBs.  He was out there finding space, getting open, making nice catches, fighting for yards, and was the Red Zone target.  I had him ranked 11th coming into the season and advised picking him up last night prior to tonight's game (for free) for anyone who had doubts/injuries for their TEs on Sunday.

 

So, if you waited until after he blew up... then yeah, you're probably going to overpay for him and be upset with his production moving forward.  For those who drafted him in the 16th round, or snatched him up before tonight's game for free, then you've got some trade bait, a streamer, or bye week filler.

 

He won't have a game like he did tonight again, he's going to have ups and downs.

TE's are simple in fantasy; either you have Gronk, or you're just hoping for 4/40 each week and praying for a TD.

 

6'5, 254lbs, runs 4.5, with a 41" vertical.  We've seen him flash before, he's just never been able to consistently repeat it.

I understand that Jared Cook is the epitome of Lucy and the football, so I don't blame anyone for being gun shy.

 

In a $100 FAAB league, if you feel you have a top 5 TE, I wouldn't bid more than $5.

If you feel you have a TE in the 7-12 range, but aren't confident in them, I'd bid up to $10.

If you lost Olsen/Walker and need a backup, I'd max out at $15, based on supply and demand of your wire.

If Kittle, Ebron, and Dissley are out there with Cook... I'm not throwing a full bid out, unless I lost my TE.

FAAB prices are so league dependent, you have to account for all these factors.  Do the people who own Olsen/Walker already have backups?  Will they be bidding against you?  How many hot WR/RBs were on your wire, where people will spend their money elsewhere?  Is your opponent next week also looking at a TE?  I'm willing to bid more, if the person I'm playing might use Cook against me in week 2.  Lots and lots of factors.

 

Good luck.

A lot of words, but without ever saying where you value him ROS. It looks like a TE2, and it smells like a TE2...I'm in agreement that he's a TE2.

 

Being TE12 seems like a convenient argument. He played 16 games last year. Given the choice between him and, say, 8 games of Eifert, paired with 8 games of streaming, you know which one I'm taking. The latter option gives me significantly better production.

 

Also, sidebar, you're advocating bidding more to try to block a TE-needy team from Cook? That's terrible advice. I've spent $0 or low waiver priority plenty of times to try to block opponents from players, only for them to start what I thought was the next best option, who ended up scoring 5-10 more points.

 

And people in this thread, please stop talking about lost targets. Patterson was irrelevant, and Jordy was signed to fill literally the exact same role Crabtree did last year. I hate Cooper for fantasy purposes, and even I'm not expecting him to catch 48 balls this year.

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8 hours ago, CViewPride35 said:

Week 2 against the Broncos... pretty similar to Rams, no?  Great Dline, good cbs, mediocre middle. 

 

Similar gameplan?

Yep I like the look of this week as well and expect similar targets.  Overall though I think the offense and Carr might look to Cook a bit more often this year...  I'm not expecting a top 5 TE out of Cook but he could get his fare share of targets in this offense.

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9 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

Dude, he's FA in a 12 team, and he gets you 7 weeks of 75, 126, 57, 107, 46, 43 and 56? 
I've picked up a lot worse, and not just in fantasy.

 

Haha, don't interpret my hate of Cook as me saying "he's not worth picking up". Yeah, of course he is worth picking up. I'm just trying to say you shouldn't go out there and use 20% of your budget on this dude IMO. Let someone else take that risk if they are going to splurge.

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There is something about Gruden being the HC that makes be believe in what we saw out of Cook last night. The way he was lining up in the slot and out wide as a receiver makes me believe he will be a big part of the offense going forward. 

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55 minutes ago, Zekepeak86 said:

Gruden stated cooper would be vocal point of offense but clearly that was Cook.

Yes because, as has already been stated, the Rams have arguably the best CB corps in the league and arguably the worst LB corps in the league. This isn't hard, guys.

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3 minutes ago, MJ10162 said:

Yes because, as has already been stated, the Rams have arguably the best CB corps in the league and arguably the worst LB corps in the league. This isn't hard, guys.

that has nothing to do with 3 targets......now the line caving and carr wanting to get the ball out asap does. No way a star receiver or a guy the coach says is going to be the vocal point of the offense only gets 3 looks (one of which was 10 ft over his head OB) and lines up in the same spot almost all game. That being said, cook implemented himself for a bigger role with that performance last night. 

 

If cooper was going to be the vocal point of the offense, they did a horrible job trying to get him involved. Carr only had eyes for cooks. He had a great matchup but the play calling was pretty s--- imo.

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1 minute ago, Zekepeak86 said:

that has nothing to do with 3 targets......now the line caving and carr wanting to get the ball out asap does. No way a star receiver or a guy the coach says is going to be the vocal point of the offense only gets 3 looks (one of which was 10 ft over his head OB) and lines up in the same spot almost all game. That being said, cook implemented himself for a bigger role with that performance last night. 

 

If cooper was going to be the vocal point of the offense, they did a horrible job trying to get him involved. Carr only had eyes for cooks. He had a great matchup but the play calling was pretty s--- imo.

 

It's focal point....

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6 minutes ago, MJ10162 said:

A lot of words, but without ever saying where you value him ROS. It looks like a TE2, and it smells like a TE2...I'm in agreement that he's a TE2.

 

This is pretty vague, lots of different league sizes out there.  Maybe a TE2 in 10 teamers.  Definitely in the low-end TE1 discussion in 12+ teams.

 

6 minutes ago, MJ10162 said:

Being TE12 seems like a convenient argument. He played 16 games last year. Given the choice between him and, say, 8 games of Eifert, paired with 8 games of streaming, you know which one I'm taking. The latter option gives me significantly better production.

 

Speaking of convenient arguments, you could literally make the same argument about any player at any position that played 16 games last year.  And of all positions, TE is probably the worst example of trying to find a high PPG play at a discount, due to how shallow the position is.  The argument goes both ways, too - Jason Witten was a top-12 TE last year and is retired.  Brate was top-12 and is in a timeshare with OJ Howard now.  Jack Doyle is losing targets to Ebron.  Delanie Walker is out for the season already, and Greg Olson looks not far behind him.  Right off the bat you can cross out a third of the TE names that were ahead of him.

 

Good luck if you want to try and roll with someone with "upside" like Eifert.  He's literally played less than 50% of the games since he's been in the league, and even his "breakout" season he had fewer receptions and yards than Cook did last year.  All he has to do is put together his first healthy season in 6 years and match a ridiculously unsustainable TD rate from years ago, and he'll crush Cook's numbers!

 

6 minutes ago, MJ10162 said:

And people in this thread, please stop talking about lost targets. Patterson was irrelevant, and Jordy was signed to fill literally the exact same role Crabtree did last year. I hate Cooper for fantasy purposes, and even I'm not expecting him to catch 48 balls this year.

 

Stop trying to use real numbers and logic in this thread everyone!  

 

It doesn't matter how 'relevant' you think Patterson was - fact is he had 42 targets that have to go somewhere now.  And I didn't see anyone trying to argue that Nelson wasn't signed for Crabtree's role, but you're still looking at anywhere from 100-150 targets that Crabtree had yearly that are gone.  So I guess either you're really on the Jordy Nelson bandwagon and think he will resurrect his career and finish as a high end WR2, or some of those targets have to go somewhere else.  

 

When you break it down into targets it's really simple - either you think Carr is going to throw the ball a lot less (unlikely with the horrible defense they have), or you figure out where the lost targets will end up going.  That leaves 140+ targets either going to Nelson himself, or split between him and some others.  And if you take even 20 or so of those targets and feed them to Cook (seems plausible considering he got 12 last night alone), he goes from borderline TE1 to top-5 TE in a hurry.

 

 

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