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Jared Cook 2018 Outlook


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2 minutes ago, austin316 said:

https://www.silverandblackpride.com/2018/9/11/17847138/jared-cook-big-game-monday-night-sets-new-raiders-tight-end-single-game-receiving-record

 

Cook set a new franchise record for most receiving yards in a game by a Raiders tight end finishing the night with 180 yards on nine catches. The previous mark was held by Todd Christensen who recorded 173 yards on November 20, 1986 against the Chargers.

 

Wade Phillips and the Rams defense made it a point to key on Amari Cooper throughout the game. And the Rams linebacking corps is one of few weak areas on the Rams defense. As a result, Cook found himself in plenty of favorable matchups of which he and quarterback Derek Carr were able to take advantage.

 

“That’s why Jared [Cook] had a big game,” Carr explained after the game. “We had no problem seeing what they were doing, obviously. It’s not an indication of Amari or anything like that. If the coverage looks a certain way during a certain play, we have other options. That’s why Jared and the running backs came up big than the pass game for us.”

 

Cook is now just the fifth tight end in the past 20 seasons to record 180 or more receiving yards in a game according to Pro Football Reference.

When asked why he had such a big night, the 10-year veteran reiterated Carr’s statement about the Rams defensive scheme.

 

“We knew going into the game they were going to play a lot of man [coverage], so we knew we had matchups all across the board,” said Cook. “We planned on [Rams safety Mark] Barron. We had a feeling he was going to be doubtful, but he ended up playing.”

 

“Obviously Jared [Cook] came up huge tonight and they disguised their coverages,” Gruden told the media postgame. “It allowed us to get the ball to our tight ends and backs. Unfortunately we were not able to get more out of it.”

 

Although this is concerning if they do have a big game, I have a feeling that the RB's/Cook will be getting alot of dump passes when Carr is under pressure. In PPR play that is just a gold mine, I have no qualms with that.

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Cook's 2017 just for reference:  

This is pretty vague, lots of different league sizes out there.  Maybe a TE2 in 10 teamers.  Definitely in the low-end TE1 discussion in 12+ teams.     Speaking of convenient argument

This is what Jared Cook does. Have 1 or 2 monster games a year and be mediocre the rest. Definitely worth a flier but don't waste big FAAB on this guy. With Crabtree out of the mix he could certainly

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5 hours ago, oresteszero said:

 

Although this is concerning if they do have a big game, I have a feeling that the RB's/Cook will be getting alot of dump passes when Carr is under pressure. In PPR play that is just a gold mine, I have no qualms with that.

I don't expect Jared to ever repeat this. Not even on Madden.

 

But it shows me he is in the discussion and they're not afraid to throw it to him. All I want is a set it and forget it TE who gets 30 yd half the season, and the other half a couple nice surprises including some double digits.

 

Preferably week 14-16 btw, thanks Santa.

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7 minutes ago, oresteszero said:

Oh I'm sure it won't happen with thos many yards and targets. But if he can get me a solid 10-12 points each week I'm a happy camper. 

I hope that's in PPR because if he averaged 10 points a week in standard he would put up numbers comparable to Gronk, Julio, or AJ Green last year which is completely out of the question.

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I think one thing people are seriously overlooking with Cook is the fact he is playing for a different coaching staff.

 

Yes he has teased and stunk before but he played for Jeff Fisher most of his career with a one year stint in Green Bay where TEs just aren’t targeted that much.

 

Cook was almost a top 12 TE last year (3 points away from TE 12 in standard and 16 points away from TE8)  Even without Sunday’s game, he looks like the best pass catching weapon they have next to Amari Cooper and A Cooper hasn’t exactly been a reliable WR the past 3 years. Now add last week’s game: Cook was a hero whereas with Cooper Gruden is talking about how “it’s tough to get him jump started.” Throw in the off season praise and the fact that they have been lining him up everywhere, including as a WR, and it sure looks like Cook is one of, if not the best, receiving option on the Raiders right now. His chemistry with Carr doesn’t hurt either.

 

Seems to me with a new coaching staff, lack of other receding options and growing connection with Carr, Cook has a chance to have the best year of his career which is somewhere in the top 12. Given how mediocre the TE position is, I don’t see why a top 5 finish wouldn’t be possible. Worth a gamble imo.

Edited by FreakFries
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42 minutes ago, FreakFries said:

I think one thing people are seriously overlooking with Cook is the fact he is playing for a different coaching staff.

 

Yes he has teased and stunk before but he played for Jeff Fisher most of his career with a one year stint in Green Bay where TEs just aren’t targeted that much.

 

Cook was almost a top 12 TE last year (3 points away from TE 12 in standard and 16 points away from TE8)  Even without Sunday’s game, he looks like the best pass catching weapon they have next to Amari Cooper and A Cooper hasn’t exactly been a reliable WR the past 3 years. Now add last week’s game: Cook was a hero whereas with Cooper Gruden is talking about how “it’s tough to get him jump started.” Throw in the off season praise and the fact that they have been lining him up everywhere, including as a WR, and it sure looks like Cook is one of, if not the best, receiving option on the Raiders right now. His chemistry with Carr doesn’t hurt either.

 

Seems to me with a new coaching staff, lack of other receding options and growing connection with Carr, Cook has a chance to have the best year of his career which is somewhere in the top 12. Given how mediocre the TE position is, I don’t see why a top 5 finish wouldn’t be possible. Worth a gamble imo.

RwSsGiQ.gif

 

I'll drink to that :)

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18 hours ago, MJ10162 said:

He has 20 TDs in 40 games (including 15 games and 2 TDs as a rookie), so you don't seem like an authority on what is and isn't ridiculous.

 

. . . 

 

You're basically miscalculating targets and saying that Cook is a Top 5 TE because "well, all the TEs were pretty close in points last year!" Nonsensical.

 

And if you're not arguing about his ending status (news flash, about 15 tight ends have Top 5 potential because "well, all the TEs were pretty close in points last year!") and agreeing that he's on the TE1/TE2 fringe, what are you even arguing about?

 

Re: Eifert, I don't think you understand TD rates and how unsustainable Eifert's TD rate was during his 1.5 year stretch of relevance.  2015 and 2016 his TD rate (TD/reception) was over 22%, which is a rate almost nobody can sustain.  Gronkowski's career TD rate is just over 20%.  Gates' is 12%.  Tony Gonzalez was 8%.  Do you believe Eifert is the greatest RZ target in the history of the game, and has just been unlucky with injuries?  He also hasn't scored a TD in 2.5 years.

 

Not sure how one can "miscalculate" targets.  Carr threw 515 times last year, and that was the least pass attempts of this career (previously averaging around 575).  You have a lot of targets leaving the team, somewhere around 140 from last year (and past years where Crabtree saw 140+ on his own).  You have the same exact set of players outside of that, with Nelson added into it.  I don't need to draw up charts on where on the field each player saw their targets, I just need to know how many times Carr will throw the ball, and how many times he will likely throw it at each player.  Cook's target share definitely isn't going down, and it has a very real possibility of going up.

 

You're also misrepresenting what I've said to make your own stance sound more logical, but what I said was Cook has a reasonable and real chance at being a top-5 TE, in that all he might need is 15-20 more targets and a couple more TD's (not out of the realm of possibility).  

 

I think a lot of this also comes down to context and what kind of league everyone is in.  If you play in 10 team standard leagues then maybe Cook isn't exciting at all to you.  But for a lot of people in 12+ team leagues, if you could tell them they could have a TE that has a very high chance at finishing top-12, and an outside shot at top-5, I'm sure they would be pretty happy with that off the WW.  

 

I also love how people that subscribe to streaming always have examples of players from past years that had big games or good stretches, but I never hear how their current streaming is going.  How exactly do you decide on your streamer TE, and how do you predict who is going to score TD's each week?  TE matchups are pretty unpredictable.  Even if the league is shallow and the FA pool is deep, you still have to pick the right one each week to end up with a higher weekly average than TE12.

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2 hours ago, FreakFries said:

I think one thing people are seriously overlooking with Cook is the fact he is playing for a different coaching staff.

 

Yes he has teased and stunk before but he played for Jeff Fisher most of his career with a one year stint in Green Bay where TEs just aren’t targeted that much.

 

Cook was almost a top 12 TE last year (3 points away from TE 12 in standard and 16 points away from TE8)  Even without Sunday’s game, he looks like the best pass catching weapon they have next to Amari Cooper and A Cooper hasn’t exactly been a reliable WR the past 3 years. Now add last week’s game: Cook was a hero whereas with Cooper Gruden is talking about how “it’s tough to get him jump started.” Throw in the off season praise and the fact that they have been lining him up everywhere, including as a WR, and it sure looks like Cook is one of, if not the best, receiving option on the Raiders right now. His chemistry with Carr doesn’t hurt either.

 

Seems to me with a new coaching staff, lack of other receding options and growing connection with Carr, Cook has a chance to have the best year of his career which is somewhere in the top 12. Given how mediocre the TE position is, I don’t see why a top 5 finish wouldn’t be possible. Worth a gamble imo.

 

A few things.

 

It’s not a coincidence Cook happened to play for Fisher for the bulk of his career. Fisher was the ultimate Cookie Monster truther. He drafted him while he was head coach at Tennessee and when he became head coach for the Rams he gave Cook a 5 year $35 Million dollar deal to acquire him in free agency. 

 

Cook led the team in receiving yards last year so it’s no surprise there’s chemistry and Carr liking him. Cooper and Crabtree missed some time. But still... that’s just wrong. Nothing against Cook or a TE leading a team in yards but when that total amount of yards is 688. That’s a recipe for a losing season and a coach to be out of a job. Sorry 2017 Raiders and Del Rio. As sweet as it was for Cook owners to see him ball out on Monday the final result was not what Gruden and staff anticipated. They must and will make changes to get other receivers going and open up the offense/passing game. 

 

For Cook to finish top 5 that means he’d be doing it at 31 years of age in his 10th season. Sounds like a stretch but maybe not impossible considering TE seems it will be historically weak this year especially with the early losses of Delanie and Olsen. He just might finish Top 5 by default if he has similar yards to last year and a few more TD’s but even then I wouldn’t hold my breath. 

 

 

 

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5 minutes ago, Asian Sensation said:

 

A few things.

 

It’s not a coincidence Cook happened to play for Fisher for the bulk of his career. Fisher was the ultimate Cookie Monster truther. He drafted him while he was head coach at Tennessee and when he became head coach for the Rams he gave Cook a 5 year $35 Million dollar deal to acquire him in free agency. 

 

Cook led the team in receiving yards last year so it’s no surprise there’s chemistry and Carr liking him. Cooper and Crabtree missed some time. But still... that’s just wrong. Nothing against Cook or a TE leading a team in yards but when that total amount of yards is 688. That’s a recipe for a losing season and a coach to be out of a job. Sorry 2017 Raiders and Del Rio. As sweet as it was for Cook owners to see him ball out on Monday the final result was not what Gruden and staff anticipated. They must and will make changes to get other receivers going and open up the offense/passing game. 

 

For Cook to finish top 5 that means he’d be doing it at 31 years of age in his 10th season. Sounds like a stretch but maybe not impossible considering TE seems it will be historically weak this year especially with the early losses of Delanie and Olsen. He just might finish Top 5 by default if he has similar yards to last year and a few more TD’s but even then I wouldn’t hold my breath. 

 

 

 

 

As long as he gets like 10-15 PPR points a week I'll be more than happy.

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4 minutes ago, oresteszero said:

 

As long as he gets like 10-15 PPR points a week I'll be more than happy.

 

Not saying he can't or won't do it, but 10-15 PPR points a week is a lot.  10 PPR points per week is 160 for the year, which would have finished TE8 last year.  12.5 pts per week would be 200 and TE4.  15 pts per week is 240 on the year and TE1 last year.

 

If he averaged 10 PPR points per week over the whole season I'd be very happy with my investment.  Any more than that is gravy.

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6 minutes ago, kball09 said:

Someone in one of my leagues spent 31% of their FAAB on this guy :)

While that's a lot, depending on roster size, team construction, if they just lost Olsen/Walker, and other options on the waiver wire I don't think it's completely unreasonable. Now, we have 9 years of Cook performances that show week 1 was a flash in the pan and he's more likely to post a 2/40 line in weeks to come.

 

Apart from week 1 of this year, Cook has only seen 10+ targets in 11 games (including 2 during the playoffs) during his 9 year career and he never saw more than 9 targets in 2017 when he finished with 688 yards receiving. 

 

What I'm trying to say is that if Cook does see a slight uptick in targets there is no reason why he cannot improve upon his 688 yards from last year which would immediately put him into the top 10-12 TE discussion. I think he has the upside for 800 yards and 5 or so TDs if the Raiders keep moving him around the field like they did in week 1. 

 

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Take week one completely out of the equation. It was an outlier week. Are you content with 4-40 weekly with one or two more big games? I think people will be disappointed when they compare the next few games to week one. If you need a low-end TE1 to replace Olsen or Walker, he’s a serviceable replacement.

Edited by ponchsox
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Some of the TEs who finished ahead of Cook last year:

 

D Walker

J Whiten

H Henry

Tyler Kroft

C Brate

 

3 of these guys aren’t even playing this year. I think it’s a fair bet that Cook out scores Brate and Kroft who had 16 and 4 points more than him respectively.

 

Leapfrogging these guys would put him at TE8.

 

i think Kittle and Burton could outscore Cook but not convinced Engram will. 

 

 

Regarding Jeff Fisher being a “Cook truther” - I don’t think Cook’s failings were so much about Fisher being wrong about Cook as they were about Fisher being a historically bad coach. Del Rio may not have been great but Cook started to produce under him and he sure seems to be doing well with Gruden. I think he could very much be like Delaney Walker - a very productive TE at an older age now that he is ina good situation 

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8 minutes ago, ponchsox said:

Take week one completely out of the equation. It was an outlier week. Are you content with 4-40 weekly with one or two more big games? I think people will be disappointed when they compare the next few games to week one. If you need a low-end TE1 to replace Olsen or Walker, he’s a serviceable replacement.

Yes, given the TE landscape, I think you're very happy with 4-40 unless you paid for gronk/ertz/kelce.  

 

I just think this guy is going to get more than his fair share of targets on an offense that will be playing catch-up all year, and the price is basically free

Edited by SuperMarksBros.
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Just now, SuperMarksBros. said:

Yes, given the TE landscape, I think you're very happy with 4-40 unless you paid for gronk/ertz/kelce.  

 

I just think this guy is going to get more than his fair share of targets, and the price is basically free

 

I agree. I'm honestly seeing a ~8 target/gm average for Cook this year, especially in PPR that's gold for TE.

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4 hours ago, handyandy86 said:

Re: Eifert, I don't think you understand TD rates and how unsustainable Eifert's TD rate was during his 1.5 year stretch of relevance.  2015 and 2016 his TD rate (TD/reception) was over 22%, which is a rate almost nobody can sustain.  Gronkowski's career TD rate is just over 20%.  Gates' is 12%.  Tony Gonzalez was 8%.

Fallacious argument. Those guys aren't used the same way that Eifert is. Eifert gets force-fed the ball inside the 20 and he's literally not even getting snaps outside of the RZ right now.

 

4 hours ago, handyandy86 said:

Not sure how one can "miscalculate" targets.  Carr threw 515 times last year, and that was the least pass attempts of this career (previously averaging around 575).  You have a lot of targets leaving the team, somewhere around 140 from last year (and past years where Crabtree saw 140+ on his own). 

And yet you managed to miscalculate them. Again, those targets will go almost wholesale to Nelson, who, I repeat, because you must've missed it the first time, the exact same role as Crabtree, and the remaining 40? Well, if you're expecting "15-20" of those to go to Cook, then that's simply poor math.

 

4 hours ago, handyandy86 said:

You're also misrepresenting what I've said to make your own stance sound more logical

I'm not misrepresenting anything. Your argument is that Cook "might end up as a Top 5 TE". It applies to a lot of tight ends and has nothing to do with his standing as a fringe TE1/TE2.

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Even if he is boom or bust, that's better than most TE's and the reason Gronk should probably be a 1st round pick every year.

 

Bold predection:

 

Top 5 TE: Jared Cook

Top 5 RB: Dalvin Cook

Top 5 WR: Brandin Cooks

 

Too many Cooks in the kitchen!

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Sign me up for Cook.

He looks like a man amongst boys out there.... and I'm a Rams fan. The guy is as hard to bring down as Lynch when he has steam.
 

There's going to be a ton of mismatches for him in the upcoming weeks.

Edited by ponza88
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I ended up picking him up, still doubt he can keep this going, but that certainly was a record breaking performance and he was the only thing really working for the Raiders.  That tells me they will lean on him until they fix everything else.

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[Removed Cool Story] I hope he can post a top 10-12 season. The big game provides some optimism but also brings a feeling of deja vu. He had a monster opening game in 2013 as well (I was a Cook owner): 7 catches for 141 yards and 2 touchdowns. He had about 530 yards, 3 touchdowns and 44 receptions over the next 15 games...

Edited by tonycpsu
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When I'm at the bottom of the WW order, I just get guys because people up top tend to "hold out" for the season changer. Took a shot at Cook at #8 and got him. I decided to do so after reading this article, which a brief skim didn't show me anyone else had posted yet:

 

https://raiderswire.usatoday.com/2018/08/08/raiders-tight-ends-cook-carrier-key-to-grudens-versatile-vision/

 

Sounds like TE is going to be a HUGE focus and he delivered on MNF. 15 total TE targets. This was different than in years past when he would just catch 6/6 targets and go for 100. He was PEPPERED with targets. I've never been a Cook guy in the past, but man he was playing like a man possessed out there. If this is indicative of his use going forward, sign me up.

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