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Rudy Gobert 2018-2019 Season Outlook


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Give him a new thread! The man pretty much beat the US by himself. Another big year coming for Mr. Gobert.

When drafting guys like Gobert, Drummond, Capela, and Jordan you gotta just hope for the best but prepare for the worst. Shouldnt expect to win ft% with these guys. 

Yeah you can. Go to the ac forum

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37 minutes ago, Jake the snake said:

Then you're assuming every player plays the same amount of games from last year this season... Each to their own

 

Im assuming also that Utah will play much faster and their offense will change a lot with Mitchell leading, therefore Gobert will have a dip in production.

 

Capela on the other side is a big that has adapted perfectly in fast paced offense Houston is running, no doubt he will produce similar numbers again, and maybe even more. Top 25 player.

 

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53 minutes ago, dekciw_1 said:

 

Im assuming also that Utah will play much faster and their offense will change a lot with Mitchell leading, therefore Gobert will have a dip in production.

 

Capela on the other side is a big that has adapted perfectly in fast paced offense Houston is running, no doubt he will produce similar numbers again, and maybe even more. Top 25 player.

 

 

So if Utah plays at a faster pace, why would Gobert have a dip in production?  Faster pace would mean more possessions, rebounds, shots, etc for Gobert.

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12 hours ago, dekciw_1 said:

 

Im assuming also that Utah will play much faster and their offense will change a lot with Mitchell leading, therefore Gobert will have a dip in production.

 

Capela on the other side is a big that has adapted perfectly in fast paced offense Houston is running, no doubt he will produce similar numbers again, and maybe even more. Top 25 player.

 

 

Why would they marginalize both Favors and Gobert by going small and fast?

 

Theres a big difference between having Harden, CP3 and EG vs Rubio, Mitchell and  Ingles - they don’t have the personnel to play fast and jack threes.

 

I do agree with you in that Capela is gone by pick 25 though

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On 9/15/2018 at 10:26 PM, dekciw_1 said:

 

Im assuming also that Utah will play much faster and their offense will change a lot with Mitchell leading, therefore Gobert will have a dip in production.

 

Capela on the other side is a big that has adapted perfectly in fast paced offense Houston is running, no doubt he will produce similar numbers again, and maybe even more. Top 25 player.

 

 

Gobert was never a highly offensive player. Just because mitchell has emerged as a fringe all star, doesnt mean gobert is gonna lose production. I think he will gain production because mitchell will be the defense's main priority. I expect around 15, 12.5, 2 with 60% fg and 65% ft.

 

Also capela is definitely a top 25 player, his coach said he was going to get more minutes, towards 30-33 a game, and he will be able to produce elite centre numbers with those minutes. He will be overlooked in drafts this year i believe.

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On 9/15/2018 at 12:55 AM, dekciw_1 said:

In total value last year Capela was 25th, while Gobert was ranked at 62, weird huh?

 

It's total value.  I'm pretty sure it means total stats, not per game stats.  Capela played 18 more games than Gobert, thus the discrepancy.  

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I think Gobert is a second round pick. I just paired him with Jokic in 8 cat and I had zero buyers remorse after making the picks. 

 

I watched WAY to much Jazz last year and spent way to much time researching them. Snyder runs an offense that is based on the collective working together to continue to create mismatches for someone on the floor to exploit. Constant movement. Constant screens. As soon as a big is matched up on a backcourt player it was space it out for them to exploit the mismatch. Favors, Rubio, Ingles, Donovan all had shots created for them in the corner 3. Snyder making a lot of adjustments to the offense to cater to Donovan kind of abandons the theory his offense is based on....which is basically everyone working together gets someone a better shot. Consider me skeptical that the offense changes radically. 

 

The team's identity is very highly tied to their defense, which is basically saying Gobert is their dude. Just watching them on league pass and hearing how many times the pitch to free agents is a young star (Mitchell) and a star (Gobert) that doesn't need shots and just plays defense it is very clear that Gobert is their anchor. Gobert is going to get heavy minutes. Favors is going to play the backup 5 and the staggering of Favors/Gobert is going to be done with Gobert getting the favorable minutes. Favors is the one to lose out on minutes by the Jazz playing "faster" and playing a stretch/small ball 4. 

 

Health is the main thing with Gobert. Personally, I looked at last year as 2 freak accidents. Waiters took a dive. Favors fell. It could happen to anyone. I would say law of averages evens out and you need a bigger sample size to have those outliers being considered outliers. I would roll the dice on him not having a freak accident next year. Not saying he won't get hurt, I just don't think one of his guys will chop block him. 

 

Gobert, Drummond, Capela....I think Gobert is the only big with poor FT% that allows you to not punt that category or be severely limited. Capela is going to hit you, especially if his minutes increase. Drummond....the jump happened with the form shift, from here it should be small changes to the % both up and down. Then consider you are taking these bigs early because of their ability to block shots. And Gobert does that better than Drummond and Capela, to the point you will need to dip into the "bigs that don't f$ck your FT% to get blocks" later in the draft. That is definitely the case with Drummond. Capela you can argue not so much. And Drummond doesn't crush FG% like Gobert and the points differences are quite minimal. I think you take Gobert in the second round or you wait and target the lower tier of Allen and BroLo for blocks that don't hurt your ft%. I also think if you take a blocks contributor early (AD, KAT, Greek, KD) you can run it back with Gobert in the second. But Embiid>Gobert all day for me. 

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43 minutes ago, thezing1 said:

I think Gobert is a second round pick. I just paired him with Jokic in 8 cat and I had zero buyers remorse after making the picks. 

 

I watched WAY to much Jazz last year and spent way to much time researching them. Snyder runs an offense that is based on the collective working together to continue to create mismatches for someone on the floor to exploit. Constant movement. Constant screens. As soon as a big is matched up on a backcourt player it was space it out for them to exploit the mismatch. Favors, Rubio, Ingles, Donovan all had shots created for them in the corner 3. Snyder making a lot of adjustments to the offense to cater to Donovan kind of abandons the theory his offense is based on....which is basically everyone working together gets someone a better shot. Consider me skeptical that the offense changes radically. 

 

The team's identity is very highly tied to their defense, which is basically saying Gobert is their dude. Just watching them on league pass and hearing how many times the pitch to free agents is a young star (Mitchell) and a star (Gobert) that doesn't need shots and just plays defense it is very clear that Gobert is their anchor. Gobert is going to get heavy minutes. Favors is going to play the backup 5 and the staggering of Favors/Gobert is going to be done with Gobert getting the favorable minutes. Favors is the one to lose out on minutes by the Jazz playing "faster" and playing a stretch/small ball 4. 

 

Health is the main thing with Gobert. Personally, I looked at last year as 2 freak accidents. Waiters took a dive. Favors fell. It could happen to anyone. I would say law of averages evens out and you need a bigger sample size to have those outliers being considered outliers. I would roll the dice on him not having a freak accident next year. Not saying he won't get hurt, I just don't think one of his guys will chop block him. 

 

Gobert, Drummond, Capela....I think Gobert is the only big with poor FT% that allows you to not punt that category or be severely limited. Capela is going to hit you, especially if his minutes increase. Drummond....the jump happened with the form shift, from here it should be small changes to the % both up and down. Then consider you are taking these bigs early because of their ability to block shots. And Gobert does that better than Drummond and Capela, to the point you will need to dip into the "bigs that don't f$ck your FT% to get blocks" later in the draft. That is definitely the case with Drummond. Capela you can argue not so much. And Drummond doesn't crush FG% like Gobert and the points differences are quite minimal. I think you take Gobert in the second round or you wait and target the lower tier of Allen and BroLo for blocks that don't hurt your ft%. I also think if you take a blocks contributor early (AD, KAT, Greek, KD) you can run it back with Gobert in the second. But Embiid>Gobert all day for me. 

Hmmm IDK man... Capela is better than Gobert in my book... basically did the same in 5-6 min less per game !!! AND you can get him probably something like a round later... and be at peace... because risk of serious injury is practically non existent...

per game value (9 cat) last season Gober 30. Clint 35.

PUNT FT... Gober 15. Clint 11. !!!

 

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

image.thumb.png.26a1716836eb0303a355599609208590.png

Edited by Stefan
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10 hours ago, Stefan said:

Hmmm IDK man... Capela is better than Gobert in my book... basically did the same in 5-6 min less per game !!! AND you can get him probably something like a round later... and be at peace... because risk of serious injury is practically non existent...

per game value (9 cat) last season Gober 30. Clint 35.

PUNT FT... Gober 15. Clint 11. !!!

 

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

image.thumb.png.26a1716836eb0303a355599609208590.png

That with the fact that D'Antoni said that he is increasing Capela's minutes makes Capela an easy pick over Gobert!

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11 hours ago, PaddyAustralia said:

That with the fact that D'Antoni said that he is increasing Capela's minutes makes Capela an easy pick over Gobert!

Capela's FT% is going to sting....Gobert's FT% is and has been trending up. They carry the same amount of injury risk to me. Capela is just as likely to have someone roll into his legs or chop block him as Gobert. You are getting Capela roughly 10 picks after Gobert, so there is no guarantee that if you pass on Gobert in the 2nd you have the option of taking Capela in the 3rd. 

 

I believe that D'Antoni quote was before they added Chriss. 

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30 minutes ago, thezing1 said:

Capela's FT% is going to sting....Gobert's FT% is and has been trending up. They carry the same amount of injury risk to me. Capela is just as likely to have someone roll into his legs or chop block him as Gobert. You are getting Capela roughly 10 picks after Gobert, so there is no guarantee that if you pass on Gobert in the 2nd you have the option of taking Capela in the 3rd. 

 

I believe that D'Antoni quote was before they added Chriss. 

 

Man Chriss is just a little s--- with a bad attitude... and from a physical standpoint IMO Capela looks little more tougher that Rudy...

 

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