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Ryan Fitzpatrick 2018 Outlook


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2 minutes ago, CitizenJ said:

Starting him over Luck for sure in one league, maybe over Deshaun Watson in the other. Home opener against a defense that's been ripped this year. Love the matchup.

 

( They were at home last week )

 

My angle with all this is even when he comes down to earth, he will still be useful for fantasy bc the team and system.  His ceiling upside is what we have seen first two weeks and his down weeks might not even be so bad all things considered factoring in how often TB will be seemingly throwing.

 

All he has to do is not faceplant to the point where the Bucs are forced to take a look at Winston and he should have a solid year, his schedule is not bad. 

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2 minutes ago, CitizenJ said:

Starting him over Luck for sure in one league, maybe over Deshaun Watson in the other. Home opener against a defense that's been ripped this year. Love the matchup.

Yep I'm doing the same.  All aboard this hype-train! 

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11 minutes ago, Zak0221 said:

 

Have you seen this team?  Have you watched this man throw this year? 

 

Even if he comes down to earth slightly ( which is the easiest thing to predict right now because his pace is unsustainable lol ) I dont think we are going to see him faceplant on national tv at home on MNF, hes too experienced of a player for that, the Steelers D is not talented enough and the Bucs pass catchers are all match up nightmares.  

 

In almost all game scripts hes likely to throw the ball 35-45 times because they have no rushing attack and the Steelers do score some points.  Fantasy points will be there Monday, they might not look as magical as they have been so far this season but unfortunately the NFL schedule is assisting in this magical run to the dismay of his doubters.  He has his biggest reality check vs Chicago, but this week he should be fine for fantasy even if he throws 3 picks which could happen. 

 

I can't say I've watched him this year. But I did watch him for 2 years, since I'm a Jets fan. And I know his history in Buffalo.

 

I could be wrong, but eventually he'll come back down to earth and stay there. 

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Just now, Luxferro said:

 

I can't say I've watched him this year. But I did watch him for 2 years, since I'm a Jets fan. And I know his history in Buffalo.

 

I could be wrong, but eventually he'll come back down to earth and stay there. 

 

Thank you for a drop of sanity in a sea of confusion.

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Earth is fine with me as a fantasy owner as long as that means hes still starting for the Bucs and has these weapons.

 

That's what I don't get, everyone is obviously waiting for the bottom to drop out from under this guy ( and it will to some extent ) but even with regression, this is still a possible top 5-12 QB at year end.  

 

Is it likely to happen?  Well history tells us no it won't, but when has the NFL ever been totally predictable. 

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2 minutes ago, Zak0221 said:

Earth is fine with me as a fantasy owner as long as that means hes still starting for the Bucs and has these weapons.

 

That's what I don't get, everyone is obviously waiting for the bottom to drop out from under this guy ( and it will to some extent ) but even with regression, this is still a possible top 5-12 QB at year end.  

 

Is it likely to happen?  Well history tells us no it won't, but when has the NFL ever been totally predictable. 

It's pretty crazy that he is still on the waivers in alot of leagues!

 

Better grab him and at least put him on the bench if you don't have a better option at QB so another team doesn't roster him and will up against you when you play that team

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Fitz looked good for the NYJs until his receivers, in particular Marshall and Decker got hurt.  He has similar receivers in Tampa.  Obviously he'said going to come back down to earth, but could still be effective if they stay healthy.

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I have to agree with others that history tends to repeat itself and good ol Fitz will probably come back down to earth. But I honestly don’t remember this much hype on the guy and the weapons around him are overall better than the past (even better than Marshall and Decker in my opinion). I honestly hope I’m wrong since I was able to scoop him up in a few leagues. Starting him with confidence.

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My memory gets worse as I age but weren’t Winston and Mariotta 1-2 overall picks not too long ago. One is losing his job to Conor McGregor’s doppelgänger the other is made of tissue paper and totally sucks. Sad

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3 minutes ago, Red Dog said:

Fitz looked good for the NYJs until his receivers, in particular Marshall and Decker got hurt.  He has similar receivers in Tampa.  Obviously he'said going to come back down to earth, but could still be effective if they stay healthy.

 

I'm not so sure about that. He's got a breakout tight end in Howard (who has NYJ or the Texans really had for a tight end besides the Incense smoking, parking lot jerker Kellen Winslow Jr), a BIG stud in Mike Evans (younger than Marshall or Decker at those stages), Desean Jackson (no words for this re-vitalization), and a breakout guy in Chris Godwin this year. Let's also talk about Peyton Barber pass-blocking more than any normal starting RB would and Pro Football Focus top graded Guard (Ali Marpet) is active.

 

I don't see any real downside for Fitz coming anytime soon, even versus the Bears coming up.

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9 minutes ago, Corey In Da House said:

I don't see any real downside for Fitz coming anytime soon, even versus the Bears coming up.

 

But history repeats it self, he will come back down to earth and throw 5 INTs in one game. :rolleyes:

Failure to see the big picture. Same old thinking traps. Free your mind people. Think POSITIVE. BE POSITIVE. BELIEVE IN SOMETHING even if its MAGIC. Change the narrative.

Edit: I'm starting him vs bears defense. I also have the bears defense.

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7 minutes ago, Corey In Da House said:

 

I'm not so sure about that. He's got a breakout tight end in Howard (who has NYJ or the Texans really had for a tight end besides the Incense smoking, parking lot jerker Kellen Winslow Jr), a BIG stud in Mike Evans (younger than Marshall or Decker at those stages), Desean Jackson (no words for this re-vitalization), and a breakout guy in Chris Godwin this year. Let's also talk about Peyton Barber pass-blocking more than any normal starting RB would and Pro Football Focus top graded Guard (Ali Marpet) is active.

 

I don't see any real downside for Fitz coming anytime soon, even versus the Bears coming up.

 

The 2015 Jets tight ends combined for 8 catches and 1 TD the entire season.  Looking at some of Fitzy’s many stops over the years, it’s striking that he’s played for so many teams with only one or two viable options in the pass game, and sometimes he hasn’t even had that much.

 

In 2016 after Decker got hurt, he basically had a rapidly declining Marshall and that was it, and it was a little unfair how that killed his career as a bridge starter and turned him into a permanent backup.  He actually started that season hot too before all the injuries piled up. So while he’ll obviously regress from fantasy QB1 and he’ll have a few Bad Fitzy games, it’s actually not inevitable that he’ll face plant as badly as he has in the past.

 

I’m keeping him rostered with Stafford just to see how this plays out over the next few weeks.

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29 minutes ago, Corey In Da House said:

 

I'm not so sure about that. He's got a breakout tight end in Howard (who has NYJ or the Texans really had for a tight end besides the Incense smoking, parking lot jerker Kellen Winslow Jr), a BIG stud in Mike Evans (younger than Marshall or Decker at those stages), Desean Jackson (no words for this re-vitalization), and a breakout guy in Chris Godwin this year. Let's also talk about Peyton Barber pass-blocking more than any normal starting RB would and Pro Football Focus top graded Guard (Ali Marpet) is active.

 

I don't see any real downside for Fitz coming anytime soon, even versus the Bears coming up.

They also have Humphries and Justin Watson, and we know Brate can catch passes. They have incredible depth, so if someone were to get hurt it won't be the end of the world for Fitz's value

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I should have mentioned this before the waiver wire pickup sesh, but may be helpful to someone.

 

Fitzmagic is the perfect compliment to Big Ben. I discovered this post week 1 after realizing I needed a new backup. Fortunate to pick up Fitz then.

 

Big Ben's "trouble weeks" meaning all road games and tough matchups (bold for the weeks he should be benched IMO):

wk3 @ bucs

wk6 @ bengals

wk7 bye

wk9 @ ravens

wk11 @ jaguars

wk12 @ broncos

wk14 @ raiders

wk16 @ saints

 

(though after week 2 I would maybe have second thoughts about benching him @ ravens, have to wait and se eon their defense)

(if you are familiar with big ben's home/road splits lately you will understand why I have listed every road game, regardless of matchup)

 

Fitzmagic schedule during those weeks:

wk3 steelers, wk6 @ falcons, wk7 browns, wk9 @ panthers, wk11 @ giants, wk12 49ers, wk14 jags, wk16 @ cowboys

 

 

Tell me that isn't synchronicity. 

 

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1 hour ago, Corey In Da House said:

 

I'm not so sure about that. He's got a breakout tight end in Howard (who has NYJ or the Texans really had for a tight end besides the Incense smoking, parking lot jerker Kellen Winslow Jr), a BIG stud in Mike Evans (younger than Marshall or Decker at those stages), Desean Jackson (no words for this re-vitalization), and a breakout guy in Chris Godwin this year. Let's also talk about Peyton Barber pass-blocking more than any normal starting RB would and Pro Football Focus top graded Guard (Ali Marpet) is active.

 

I don't see any real downside for Fitz coming anytime soon, even versus the Bears coming up.

 

So you really think he's in for a 5500/6000 yard, 55+ TD season? He's on pace for that and much more. 

 

The downside is real, and it will come. I don't even think he's going to bump Winston from the job, much less break Peyton's TD record. His receiving corp is no where near the talent of Peyton or Brady's when their historic seasons were underway. 

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23 minutes ago, Soafanforlife said:

 

I don't even think he's going to bump Winston from the job

 

 

I think he might already have, certainly if they notch another win this week it will be hard to bench Fitzy.  It's not like Winston is an all pro.  The more Fitzy wins the longer the leash imo.

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9 minutes ago, Red Dog said:

 

I think he might already have, certainly if they notch another win this week it will be hard to bench Fitzy.  It's not like Winston is an all pro.  The more Fitzy wins the longer the leash imo.

Coaches love Fitz, teammates love Fitz, Jameis is still immature and doing stupid s---.

 

As long as he is winning games and playing well, it would be counter-intuitive to bench Sir Ryan of House Fitzpatrick.

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There is always that year where a QB had it all working.  Take Keenum for example last year and what he did in Minnesota.   He is no world beater, but had a career year for himself last season.  I'd say believe in the magic.  If he does again what he did the last 2 weeks against the Steelers, there is no way in hell Winston gets his job back.  I think Winston has basically destroyed his character and I truly believe that the Bucs are just looking for a reason to not bring him back into the starting role.  This team is fully behind Fitz, and I have a feeling we can be looking at that feel good story for the Harvard grad.  This is his team after this week......this offense is now clicking on a level it never has and the team has bought into it.  Believe the hype people!! It's Fitzmagic!!!

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3 hours ago, whatisfootball said:

As someone that plans to start him this week, Haden being back is a bit of a buzzkill as that secondary is a lot better with him playing. Also with the Bears game next week followed with the bye/Jameis coming off suspension, will the Fitzmagic last?

i wasn't happy to see that either but this isn't the Haden of olde

PFF graded his week 1 performance at 60.7 which is 64th best grade among NFL CB's this season

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