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Klay Thompson 2018-2019 Season Outlook


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22 minutes ago, Chickenmane said:

I guess I made the comparison for a few reason:

1.  I view them as similar players (fantasy wise)

2. To illustrate that Klay is vastly overrated because you can find similar production to him in the later part of the draft. 

 

1) The best month of Hield's career is worse than Klay's career averages.  They are not the same caliber of player.

 

2) Show me a guy who scores 20ppg with 3 threes a game and shoots 47% from the field in the later part of the draft.  I'll wait. 

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Others have made it pretty clear that Klay's stats have not gone down substantially in the past 4 years.  The reason for his drop in rankings (for 9-cat, 9th in 2015!) is because of the increase in 3p

1) The best month of Hield's career is worse than Klay's career averages.  They are not the same caliber of player.   2) Show me a guy who scores 20ppg with 3 threes a game and shoots 47% fr

40 minutes ago, alexstr said:

 

1) The best month of Hield's career is worse than Klay's career averages.  They are not the same caliber of player.

 

2) Show me a guy who scores 20ppg with 3 threes a game and shoots 47% from the field in the later part of the draft.  I'll wait. 

1) Someones career averages are irrelevant once you add durant and cousins to their team. In addition, it's unfair to compare the career averages of someone who has been in the league since 2011 to someone who is entering their 3rd year (where many players make a significant jump).  

 

2) Klay won't avg 20 ppg (probably closer 18.5) and even with 3 3pt a game on 47% shooting that still doesn't equate to 3rd or 4th round value. And Buddy Hield will avg 18-19 points a game, 2.7-3 3pt/game, and with better periphery stats. This is according to basketball monster projections, and like I said earlier Hield outplayed Klay significantly the last 2 months of the season. 

 

 

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9 minutes ago, Chickenmane said:

1) Someones career averages are irrelevant once you add durant and cousins to their team. In addition, it's unfair to compare the career averages of someone who has been in the league since 2011 to someone who is entering their 3rd year (where many players make a significant jump).  

 

2) Klay won't avg 20 ppg (probably closer 18.5) and even with 3 3pt a game on 47% shooting that still doesn't equate to 3rd or 4th round value. And Buddy Hield will avg 18-19 points a game, 2.7-3 3pt/game, and with better periphery stats. This is according to basketball monster projections, and like I said earlier Hield outplayed Klay significantly the last 2 months of the season. 

 

 

 

My god you are a moron. I can't even talk with you.  Blocked so I don't have to read any more of your drivel

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14 minutes ago, Chickenmane said:

2) Klay won't avg 20 ppg (probably closer 18.5)

 

And what are you basing this on? His four game slump to start the year, and not the four previous years he has averaged 20?

 

Ok got it.

 

Oh and Buddy is going to have better peripheral stats. The guy currently averaging 0.3 steals (same as Klay right now) with a career best of 1.1, same as Klay’s career best. And blocks being 0.7 right now (career best of 0.3), and Klay is at 1 right now (Klay’s career best of 0.8).

 

But he had those 2 months. Better indication than Klay’s career. My mistake.

Edited by Tekno Team 2000
Corrected three game slump to four
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8 minutes ago, Tekno Team 2000 said:

 

And what are you basing this on? His three game slump to start the year, and not the four previous years he has averaged 20?

 

Ok got it.

 

Oh and Buddy is going to have better peripheral stats. The guy currently averaging 0.3 steals (same as Klay right now) with a career best of 1.1, same as Klay’s career best. And blocks being 0.7 right now (career best of 0.3), and Klay is at 1 right now (Klay’s career best of 0.8).

 

But he had those 2 months. Better indication than Klay’s career. My mistake.

i've stated multiple times that I'm basing it off basketball monster projections, and like I said earlier his career stats mean f--- all once durant/cousins were added to his team. 

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Just now, Chickenmane said:

I'm basing it off basketball monster projections, and like I said earlier his career stats mean f--- all once durant/cousins were added to his team. 

 

Ok. And? It is projection. It is not a fact. You know what is a fact. Klay averaging 20 for the past four seasons. This is Durant’s third year on the team. Was Klay’s stats negatively impacted the past two seasons? Another fact. He still averaged 20 points a game with Durant

 

And Cousins hasn’t even played yet and probably will only play 25 to 30 games. His impact will not drop Klay’s scoring that much either. Why? Because Klay will have 50 plus games to average 20 or more. And Cousins being there will open up more wide open scoring opportunites for Klay and the rest of the team.

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20 minutes ago, Tekno Team 2000 said:

 

Ok. And? It is projection. It is not a fact. You know what is a fact. Klay averaging 20 for the past four seasons. This is Durant’s third year on the team. Was Klay’s stats negatively impacted the past two seasons? Another fact. He still averaged 20 points a game with Durant

 

And Cousins hasn’t even played yet and probably will only play 25 to 30 games. His impact will not drop Klay’s scoring that much either. Why? Because Klay will have 50 plus games to average 20 or more. And Cousins being there will open up more wide open scoring opportunites for Klay and the rest of the team.

Um yes his stats were negatively impacted with the arrival of durant and theres more to fantasy basketball than ppg. You're missing the point though, even if Klay averages 20 ppg he still does not project as a top 40 player

 

In regards to your "It is projection. It is not a fact" comment, I never claimed what I stating was a fact. This entire forum is based mostly around evaluating players and establishing some sort of projection for players going forward. I could be wrong and Klay ends up the number 1 ranked player in all of fantasy, but the evidence doesn't suggest that to be likely. Likewise the evidence doesn't suggest that Klay should be as highly valued as he is. I've tried to make my point though, people can obviously choose to believe what they want. 

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5 minutes ago, Chickenmane said:

Um yes his stats were negatively impacted with the arrival of durant and theres more to fantasy basketball than ppg.

 

How so? He still averaged 20 points a game.  Of course there is more than points in fantasy.  So what about his steals, his blocks, his rebounds, his assists, his shot attempts?  Did Durant negatively impact those?  Nope. All the same from pre-Durant numbers.  Look it up if you don't believe me.  

 

So what was Durant's impact on Klay exactly then?  You know what was impacted.  His FG%. Last year Klay set a career high.  FG% matters in fantasy, right?  Cousins should help with that even more potentially.  

 

10 minutes ago, Chickenmane said:

In regards to your "It is projection. It is not a fact" comment, I never claimed what I stating was a fact. This entire forum is based mostly around evaluating players and establishing some sort of projection for players going forward. I could be wrong and Klay ends up the number 1 ranked player in all of fantasy, but the evidence doesn't suggest that to be likely. Likewise the evidence doesn't suggest that Klay should be as highly valued as he is.

 

So all the factual evidence shows is that Klay was NOT negatively impacted by Durant.  My projection would be based on this evidence he probably won't be negatively impacted by Cousins either.  And all of the evidence is showing he is better in fantasy and reality than Buddy Hield.  Klay is an all-star for a reason.  Buddy is not.  

 

And to call Klay a "poor man's Buddy Hield" has no basis in reality because the facts do not back up your claim that Buddy will have better scoring or peripheral stats than Klay.  He doesn't shoot better than Klay based on historical data.  He doesn't make more three's than Klay based on historical data.  They have the same career high in steals.  He won't block more than Klay based on historical data.  He won't score as much as Klay based on historical data.

 

History matters.  Facts matter.

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58 minutes ago, Tekno Team 2000 said:

 

How so? He still averaged 20 points a game.  Of course there is more than points in fantasy.  So what about his steals, his blocks, his rebounds, his assists, his shot attempts?  Did Durant negatively impact those?  Nope. All the same from pre-Durant numbers.  Look it up if you don't believe me.  

 

So what was Durant's impact on Klay exactly then?  You know what was impacted.  His FG%. Last year Klay set a career high.  FG% matters in fantasy, right?  Cousins should help with that even more potentially.  

 

 

So all the factual evidence shows is that Klay was NOT negatively impacted by Durant.  My projection would be based on this evidence he probably won't be negatively impacted by Cousins either.  And all of the evidence is showing he is better in fantasy and reality than Buddy Hield.  Klay is an all-star for a reason.  Buddy is not.  

 

And to call Klay a "poor man's Buddy Hield" has no basis in reality because the facts do not back up your claim that Buddy will have better scoring or peripheral stats than Klay.  He doesn't shoot better than Klay based on historical data.  He doesn't make more three's than Klay based on historical data.  They have the same career high in steals.  He won't block more than Klay based on historical data.  He won't score as much as Klay based on historical data.

 

History matters.  Facts matter.

 

Its not even worth it with this guy:
Image result for internet troll gif

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8 minutes ago, battaginlemon said:

22.1pts 3.8reb 2.1ast 0.8stl 0.5blk 1.7to with 3.5 3ptm on 47.0%FG

22.3pts 3.7reb 2.1ast 0.8stl 0.5blk 1.6to with 3.4 3ptm on 46.8%FG

 

Klay's stats before and after KD joined the warriors..

 

 

Exactly what I was saying.   Its funny because I had thought the whole "KD is going to impact Klay's production" narrative that the media was trying to spin when he first got there was put to bed two years ago. 

 

I guess it just shows that for some people they don't let facts get in the way of their "projection/alternative evidence." Hahaha

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17 minutes ago, battaginlemon said:

22.1pts 3.8reb 2.1ast 0.8stl 0.5blk 1.7to with 3.5 3ptm on 47.0%FG

22.3pts 3.7reb 2.1ast 0.8stl 0.5blk 1.6to with 3.4 3ptm on 46.8%FG

 

Klay's stats before and after KD joined the warriors..

 

very convenient how you didn't use last seasons stats...

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Just now, Chickenmane said:

very convenient how you didn't use last seasons stats...

 

How is that convenient? The best way to determine KD's impact on Klay is to compare the stats before and after he joined the Warriors.. and KD had literally zero impact.

 

Klay had a slight decline in stats last year, but that isn't necessarily KD's fault. There are several different factors. Go troll somewhere else please

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Just now, Chickenmane said:

very convenient how you didn't use last seasons stats...

 

Last season's stats - 

 

Oh man, 20 points as opposed to 22.  What a steep decline.  But what about the other stats? Better FG%. A little more assists. Same blocks. Same steals. Same rebounds.

 

So again, where did Kevin Durant negatively impact his stats? What evidence are you basing it on?  The evidence we are showing? Or the non-factual evidence based on the narrative you are prescribing?

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7 minutes ago, battaginlemon said:

 

How is that convenient? The best way to determine KD's impact on Klay is to compare the stats before and after he joined the Warriors.. and KD had literally zero impact.

 

Klay had a slight decline in stats last year, but that isn't necessarily KD's fault. There are several different factors. Go troll somewhere else please

So is Basketball monster also trolling when they project Klay outside of the top 70?

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Others have made it pretty clear that Klay's stats have not gone down substantially in the past 4 years.  The reason for his drop in rankings (for 9-cat, 9th in 2015!) is because of the increase in 3pm around the league.  His z-score of +2.4 in that category in 2015 was based on 3.1 makes per game, which was an outlier. Now, last year he also had 3.1 3pm per game, but that z-score dropped to +1.8.  That alone accounts for a 30 spot drop in BBM rankings.

 

Klay didn't change, the rest of the league just caught up to his shooting.

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1 minute ago, Chickenmane said:

So is Basketball monster also trolling when they project Klay outside of the top 70?

 

See my post above.  The continued increase in 3pm around the league is what pushed him lower in this years projection.  They are also projecting about 2p ppg less than last year, probably due to Cousins eventual return.

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6 minutes ago, Tekno Team 2000 said:

 

I see you are not answering my questions.  Convenient.

 

liar.gif 

1) yes a 2 ppg difference and -.5 3pt is a significant difference. 

2) As the poster above just mentioned a players stats don't exist in a vacuum, Klays value has decreased because the style of play in the league has changed. 

 

p.s go read up on z-scores and categorical scarcity

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Just now, Chickenmane said:

1) yes a 2 ppg difference and -.5 3pt is a significant difference. 

2) As the poster above just mentioned a players stats don't exist in a vacuum, Klays value has decreased because the style of play in the league has changed. 

 

1. Not a significant enough difference to then say Buddy Hield is better than him in anyway.  This does not make your Buddy comments (particularly the better peripheral stats) any less wrong.  Factually incorrect based on the facts I laid out before.   

 

2. His value has decreased because of style of play.  This is true.  But not once did YOU mention this point in your arguments before he did.  And I am not sure why you are piggybacking off of it anyway because it doesn't mean anything regarding your comments about Buddy and Klay.  It still doesn't make you any less wrong.  And btw, if Klay's value decreases because of style of play and more people shooting threes, than Buddy's does too.  

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Never been a fan of klay in fantasy, his Adp is always too high for me, I usually go for guys like Middleton over him, I play in a lot of 12 teams league and never once have I consider picking Klay unless he falls to 4th round then I’ll probably consider but even then I pick guys like Eric Bledsoe or Garry Harris over him. Great player in real life but just not so much for his adp in fantasy

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11 minutes ago, Tyboogie said:

Never been a fan of klay in fantasy, his Adp is always too high for me, I usually go for guys like Middleton over him, I play in a lot of 12 teams league and never once have I consider picking Klay unless he falls to 4th round then I’ll probably consider but even then I pick guys like Eric Bledsoe or Garry Harris over him. Great player in real life but just not so much for his adp in fantasy

Middleton is a second rounder as well as Harris. Bledsoe should be off the board at early third. I believe Klay's ADP this season is around late 3rd - early 4th round? I can comfortably draft him in that position. Maybe you can notch one round higher if you have a punt assist build.

 

He doesn't give you those popcorn stats but his elite % in high volume with 3 threes and 1 TO per game is very valuable. Those are already 4 out of the standard 9 categories. 

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3 minutes ago, StickerHappy said:

Middleton is a second rounder as well as Harris. Bledsoe should be off the board at early third. I believe Klay's ADP this season is around late 3rd - early 4th round? I can comfortably draft him in that position. Maybe you can notch one round higher if you have a punt assist build.

 

He doesn't give you those popcorn stats but his elite % in high volume with 3 threes and 1 TO per game is very valuable. Those are already 4 out of the standard 9 categories. 

Not when these drafts were done 2-3 weeks prior to the season opening, people were not high on Middleton or Bledsoe in my leagues, Middleton usually are pick in the 3rd and Bledsoe are usually in the 4th. In one of my $100 league, I was able to get kawaii/Embidd/Jimmy/Middleton with pick 11th. People were skeptical with kawaii and jimmy before season opening, high risks high rewards

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