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TJ Warren 2018-2019 Season Outlook


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The dude is basically non existent as a sleeper of flyer candidate. Do people really think he’ll not be fantasy relevant after averaging 19 ppg last year?? 

 

Granted there are suddenly a lot of new mouths to feed in Phoenix in Ayton, Ariza, Bridges and Ryno coupled with the improvement of Jackson and Booker - people seem to be writing off Warren entirely.

 

At this rate he’ll be surely available during the last rounds - and I still think he can be a very good source of points and FG%. 

 

Thoughts? 

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Shoutout everyone who voted. He just got PF eligibility in yahoo.

Yes.  I don’t think 20/5 is a fluke as he did that last year.  Everyone expected regression as the forward position is fairly crowded in Phoenix but it’s Ariza who regressed which frankly isn’t surpri

This guy is the cockroach of the fantasy world.  He should be dead but keeps coming back to life.

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It's just hard to get excited about him. He is clearly looking at less minutes than last year and is trade bait. He is a pretty empty pts guy, which severely limits his upside. Less than half a triple per game, half a block and 1 stl on good FG% but below part FT% on an not insignificant number of attempts and below average dimes and boards. Low TOs are nice for a scorer, but like @RipCity0 says he is going to struggle to get 25 mpg. Could do a bit of damage of the bench, but definitely not someone I am targeting; maybe if he falls to the last round or two?  

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I hope my competition overlook him and don't mind getting Warrent around #100. I usually play in league setups including turnovers and really find value in guys with strong points w/ great FG% and low TO later on. Minutes? Rather below 29, but don't see it fall much lower, no matter if he's a starter or a sixth man.

 

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Believe he is ranked 160 something in Yahoo, it’s easy to see him returning value at that price for what he can potentially contribute to your team even with the likely reduced role and usage.

 

There might be flashier names but with risks attached unlike TJ who is surefire to be a value pick.  

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I am a huge TJ buckets fan and had him the past two seasons. He is no doubt an absolute stud who can score in bunches (it really can't be stressed enough the FG% value he brings).

 

But with the additions of more guys (Ayton/Ariza/Anderson), I really have no idea what kind of dip he is going to take production-wise.  And he will most likely take a dip because it doesn't look like he will get the minutes and touches he has gotten the past two seasons.  Having Bridges just clouds it even further.  He might be a trade candidate since he has a good tradable contract - so hopefully he gets traded to a better situation.

 

With that being said though, I would still absolutely draft him in the 11-13 round range in Roto (10 team) for example because I would have the luxury of having him sit on the bench to see how it plays out.   

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  • 2 weeks later...

I'm actually warming up to TJ as the #1 scoring option of the PHO second unit.  His price should be really depressed but he will have solid value with even 20-24 MPG because his usage should be really high during those minutes.  If he's hot and playing well, he should close out games too, which would put his MPG in the 30 min range.

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2 hours ago, backyardballer said:

Looks like he won’t be given 25+ minutes after looking at preseason games? Minutes have been all over the place.

 

Can minutes necessarily be determined from preseason though? Most teams try different lineups, different rotations, etc.

 

I think TJ will be the 6th man and I expect his minutes to be up and down. Maybe the game flow only gives him 20 minutes. Maybe the next night he has the hot hand and he gets 30 minutes. I have to think currently they could play some small ball lineups with Ariza at the 4, Warren at the 3 and Jackson at the 2. They have talked about Jackson running the point (and I could see Booker doing it as well when he returns) and also having Jackson play some 5. I know we still think of everything in positions but the game has moved away from 'you're are 1' or 'you're a 4'. We can thank teams like GS for that. Maybe I'm totally wrong but I just can't see a very talented wing scorer like Warren seeing less than 25mpg on average - especially if Jackson continues to shoot the ball poorly. The best 5 players in Phx right now are Booker, Jackson, Warren, Ariza and Ayton. I know there is no traditional PG or traditional PF but I don't think it's crazy to think we could see that lineup at times either. I think Warren at worst equals his ADP and at best he could be a steal. I'm still holding strong in my dynasty!

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My guess, is that they use TJ Warren as trade bait at some point in the season to get a PG. It feels like it's only a matter of time before PHO starts to get serious, now having Devin Booker, DeAndre Ayton, Trevor Ariza, Josh Jackson...

 

Still a lot of work to do..but with Ariza and Jackson both there, I just can't see Warren getting 30+ minutes a game.

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I picked him up. The fact that he now has a 3 Pt shot in his arsenal, I think adds value, even if he won’t get 25+ mpg a night. The stocks have been there as well, and the solid shooting %’s. The fact that he’s putting up these numbers even in limited minutes is encouraging, and he’s playing at PF from what I’m hearing, so JJ and Ariza aren’t a threat for his minutes. I believe Anderson’s minutes will begin to decrease as Warren continues to outplay him. You can’t find those PPG numbers with solid 3Pt and shooting %’s on the wire very often. 

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So I know it's only 3 games but he's been consistently hitting 3's so far this year and as of writing this it hasn't hurt his FG% either. That's pretty huge for his value, and he seems to be contributing pretty well despite limited minutes. He's on waivers in one of my leagues and I'm thinking of picking him up in the hopes he can maintain this kind of production. 

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On 10/21/2018 at 8:01 AM, SnackilleOatmeal said:

I picked him up. The fact that he now has a 3 Pt shot in his arsenal, I think adds value, even if he won’t get 25+ mpg a night. The stocks have been there as well, and the solid shooting %’s. The fact that he’s putting up these numbers even in limited minutes is encouraging, and he’s playing at PF from what I’m hearing, so JJ and Ariza aren’t a threat for his minutes. I believe Anderson’s minutes will begin to decrease as Warren continues to outplay him. You can’t find those PPG numbers with solid 3Pt and shooting %’s on the wire very often. 

So far so good. Did he play at the 4 tonight? I didn't see the game. Hoping for PF eligibility soon. 

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