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Kyle Lowry 2018-2019 Season Outlook


kmoore1521
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On 9/28/2018 at 11:39 PM, kmoore1521 said:

ESPN has him proj at like 54% FG like what?

 

anyway big changes in toronto wonder what kawhi does for lowrys fantasy output, maybe more assists since kawhi can shoot 3's unlike derozen

Obviously that is a mistake haha (they have tyer ulis with over a block :/). But i can see him improving for sure, defences will have to guard kawhi a bit more tightly on the three point line which means open shots for others including lowry. I think he can be more efficient and put up a career year!

Prediction: 22.7 points/ 7.1 assists/ 4.1 rebounds/ 1.3 steals/ 0.2 blocks/ 3.3 threes/ 46.4 FG% / 86.3 FT% in 32.7 mins a game.

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My concern is his health and cold streaks (and poor FG).  He always gets injured at some point, usually towards the end of the year.  I think as he ages the raptors will play him less big minutes, and rest him more.  They are the deepest team in the league by far.  I like Lowry but will not own him this year unless he drops into the 4th round or something.  I have Kemba, Mitchell, Booker, Beal, Wall, Bledsoe, Middleton, and others ranked ahead of him.  

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38 minutes ago, hipriest69 said:

My concern is his health and cold streaks (and poor FG).  He always gets injured at some point, usually towards the end of the year.  I think as he ages the raptors will play him less big minutes, and rest him more.  They are the deepest team in the league by far.  I like Lowry but will not own him this year unless he drops into the 4th round or something.  I have Kemba, Mitchell, Booker, Beal, Wall, Bledsoe, Middleton, and others ranked ahead of him.  

I agree with everything except that they are the deepest team haha! Cmon man! Don't do my Celtic boys like that ;)

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9 hours ago, GmGodine said:

Lol Celtics don't have a good starting center but Horford is an all star and could be the the most important player in their system

 

On 10/6/2018 at 12:36 AM, PaddyAustralia said:

I agree with everything except that they are the deepest team haha! Cmon man! Don't do my Celtic boys like that ;)

 

Lets talk real life here:

Backup PG - Fvv vs Rozier - Very close here. Fred is a better leader, better shooter, better passer and runs the pick'n'roll near perfectly, he is also a super savvy and smart defender although some really long guards can use their length to shoot over him. Rozier is a better all round scorer, better attack, equally good defender (gets the nod here due to length). For me it's a wash. Fred is SUPER underrated IRL...maybe a tiny edge to the celtics

 

Backup SG - Wright+Norm vs Smart+Bird - Again close. Edge just to the celtics again. Wright is again super underrated and is a really good defender, norm struggled, but I think he bounces back this year, Bird is useful depth Smart is a great defender, but can be a bit of a hog on offense. Still I'd take smart over Delon...just.

 

Backup SF - OG vs Semi - OG in a land slide. Not even close. OG is an elite wing defender already. Shooting chops are there and more of his game is coming this year. Semi is useful, but the raps gambled on OG over Semi (a guy they really liked in the draft) and it paid off big time. Raps easily

 

PF - I guess CJ Miles vs Morris. CJ is a perfect shooter and spacer and role player. his defense is iffy, but this raps team doesn't care about that they have defenders everywhere. Marcus Morris - the slightly lesser knob of the two brothers - is really good. I thought he was really good last year on both ends. Underrated ISO game. Celtics take it.

 

C - Baynes vs Ibaka (I doubt he plays much at all at PF this year as Nurse won't want the blackhole front court of JV and Ibaka) - Ibaka gives spacing, small-ball looks, and good switching on defense especially against smaller lineups. He is declining though. Baynes is the epitome of good backup centre. Nothing more. I tip this to the raptors. Due to the versatility that Ibaka allows. Add to that Monroe can provide deep scoring and front court passing in emergencies - this is a depth argument afterall. Theiss is also a useful deep player too. But still I tip this to the raps.

 

OK now to the starters:

PG - Irving vs Lowry: Superficially it goes to Irving, but he is a walking disaster with those knees these days. He is an elite scoring PG, perfect for this celtics team, but I give him nearly 0% chance of making it through the season. Lowry is small, chubby, but he is lowry: Dogged leader, brilliant shooter and a guy that just gets it done. Kawhi is going to be perfect for him and he should make a career number of triples. I think he has a nice year. I'll call it even

 

SG - Brown vs Green - Both really good defenders - Brown probably a little better now. Green is a better shooter for sure, which fits perfectly with the other starters. Brown has a nice attacking and passing game. I tip this to the celtics

 

SF - Kawhi vs Hayward - Kawhi and its not even close. Sure there is some injury risk here, but if you choose to focus on that then you better look at the other guy too...broken leg missed a year, hasn't played in the system either. Kawhi is elite on both ends. Hayward is good on offense and ok on defense (not sure how people think he is a good defender). Kawhi is playing for his future. He will have a huge year. He is also the best player not only between the two teams, but in the whole conference. Star power matters. Raptors now have the "it" that Paul Pierce was calling them on for years...remember Kawhi is a finals MVP, MVP runner-up and 2x defensive player of the year - BEAST!!

 

PF - Siakam vs Tatum - Siakam has shown huge improvements this summer, he is the talk of all the pros (including Durant, CP3, and Harden) and has draymond potential. Shooting is the big thing. If he takes a big step here he could be in for a HUGE year. Tatum is REALLY good. But he is undersized at the 4. Still I'll give this one to the celtics, but if Siakam breaks out his style of play could be even more valuable to the raptors than Tatum is to the Celtics due to their log-jam between Smart, Brown, Hayward, Tatum and Morris. Closer than people think

 

C - JV vs Horford. If JV was as smart as Horford this wouldn't even be close. But he isn't he is a bit slow (physically and mentally - Horford just physically) and not a high Ball IQ for JV. But JV is a beast on offense cause he is HUGE and he has soft hands, soft touch and his offensive game continues to grow, including shooting. Horford is getting slower every year and is definitely declining, but he is built for their system. If JV takes the next step this goes to the raptors, if not its probably a tie or just in favour of the Celtics...

 

CONCLUSIONS:

Depth: So close. I call it a tie.

Starters: So close. I call it a tie.

Overall: Its a tie, BUT I'm a raptors fan and I think they win the WCFs in 7 games due to having the best player - and multiple elite defenders they can throw at all the Celtics threats. The celtics may have a few guys that can bother Kawhi, but the cannot stop him and if they double the raps now have the shooting to punish them. Bias maybe?! But Raps in 7

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3 hours ago, Jake the snake said:

 

 

Lets talk real life here:

Backup PG - Fvv vs Rozier - Very close here. Fred is a better leader, better shooter, better passer and runs the pick'n'roll near perfectly, he is also a super savvy and smart defender although some really long guards can use their length to shoot over him. Rozier is a better all round scorer, better attack, equally good defender (gets the nod here due to length). For me it's a wash. Fred is SUPER underrated IRL...maybe a tiny edge to the celtics

 

Backup SG - Wright+Norm vs Smart+Bird - Again close. Edge just to the celtics again. Wright is again super underrated and is a really good defender, norm struggled, but I think he bounces back this year, Bird is useful depth Smart is a great defender, but can be a bit of a hog on offense. Still I'd take smart over Delon...just.

 

Backup SF - OG vs Semi - OG in a land slide. Not even close. OG is an elite wing defender already. Shooting chops are there and more of his game is coming this year. Semi is useful, but the raps gambled on OG over Semi (a guy they really liked in the draft) and it paid off big time. Raps easily

 

PF - I guess CJ Miles vs Morris. CJ is a perfect shooter and spacer and role player. his defense is iffy, but this raps team doesn't care about that they have defenders everywhere. Marcus Morris - the slightly lesser knob of the two brothers - is really good. I thought he was really good last year on both ends. Underrated ISO game. Celtics take it.

 

C - Baynes vs Ibaka (I doubt he plays much at all at PF this year as Nurse won't want the blackhole front court of JV and Ibaka) - Ibaka gives spacing, small-ball looks, and good switching on defense especially against smaller lineups. He is declining though. Baynes is the epitome of good backup centre. Nothing more. I tip this to the raptors. Due to the versatility that Ibaka allows. Add to that Monroe can provide deep scoring and front court passing in emergencies - this is a depth argument afterall. Theiss is also a useful deep player too. But still I tip this to the raps.

 

OK now to the starters:

PG - Irving vs Lowry: Superficially it goes to Irving, but he is a walking disaster with those knees these days. He is an elite scoring PG, perfect for this celtics team, but I give him nearly 0% chance of making it through the season. Lowry is small, chubby, but he is lowry: Dogged leader, brilliant shooter and a guy that just gets it done. Kawhi is going to be perfect for him and he should make a career number of triples. I think he has a nice year. I'll call it even

 

SG - Brown vs Green - Both really good defenders - Brown probably a little better now. Green is a better shooter for sure, which fits perfectly with the other starters. Brown has a nice attacking and passing game. I tip this to the celtics

 

SF - Kawhi vs Hayward - Kawhi and its not even close. Sure there is some injury risk here, but if you choose to focus on that then you better look at the other guy too...broken leg missed a year, hasn't played in the system either. Kawhi is elite on both ends. Hayward is good on offense and ok on defense (not sure how people think he is a good defender). Kawhi is playing for his future. He will have a huge year. He is also the best player not only between the two teams, but in the whole conference. Star power matters. Raptors now have the "it" that Paul Pierce was calling them on for years...remember Kawhi is a finals MVP, MVP runner-up and 2x defensive player of the year - BEAST!!

 

PF - Siakam vs Tatum - Siakam has shown huge improvements this summer, he is the talk of all the pros (including Durant, CP3, and Harden) and has draymond potential. Shooting is the big thing. If he takes a big step here he could be in for a HUGE year. Tatum is REALLY good. But he is undersized at the 4. Still I'll give this one to the celtics, but if Siakam breaks out his style of play could be even more valuable to the raptors than Tatum is to the Celtics due to their log-jam between Smart, Brown, Hayward, Tatum and Morris. Closer than people think

 

C - JV vs Horford. If JV was as smart as Horford this wouldn't even be close. But he isn't he is a bit slow (physically and mentally - Horford just physically) and not a high Ball IQ for JV. But JV is a beast on offense cause he is HUGE and he has soft hands, soft touch and his offensive game continues to grow, including shooting. Horford is getting slower every year and is definitely declining, but he is built for their system. If JV takes the next step this goes to the raptors, if not its probably a tie or just in favour of the Celtics...

 

CONCLUSIONS:

Depth: So close. I call it a tie.

Starters: So close. I call it a tie.

Overall: Its a tie, BUT I'm a raptors fan and I think they win the WCFs in 7 games due to having the best player - and multiple elite defenders they can throw at all the Celtics threats. The celtics may have a few guys that can bother Kawhi, but the cannot stop him and if they double the raps now have the shooting to punish them. Bias maybe?! But Raps in 7

 

I hate when people compare teams this way. If it was like that, Kobe's Lakers with Smush Parker and Kwame Brown would have never made the playoffs, just like LeBron's Cavs with Larry Hughes and Eric Snow.

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46 minutes ago, GmGodine said:

 

I hate when people compare teams this way. If it was like that, Kobe's Lakers with Smush Parker and Kwame Brown would have never made the playoffs, just like LeBron's Cavs with Larry Hughes and Eric Snow.

 

Don't participate in the conversation then...pretty simples really

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33 minutes ago, GmGodine said:

Why not, I like the conversation, I don't like the way you present your argument

 

It was a discussion about depth. I went through the depth on both sides. Then I went through the starters because I was on a roll. In the end I think they are really evenly matched, but I give the edge to the Raptors based on having the best and most unstoppable player - THAT IS LITERALLY THE ARGUMENT YOU PUT FORWARD. You gave examples of teams whose star players who got bad teams into the playoffs. That I why I think Kawhi gets the Raps to the finals (although Adam Silver and the NBA TV ratings may have the final say)

 

I can't really see what has got your nickers in such a not

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Some say Lowry is poised for a career year sans Derozan. As in doing better than no11 (15-16) and no12 (16-17)?

 

That's highly unlikely, if not impossible. Those two campaign numbers were inflated by two major outliers. Steals and FG that were way up vs. the average. Last year both regressed and he finished at no30 just like 4 seasons ago. Not to mention he's now 1 year older and has trouble staying on the court.

 

Hopefully nobody from my leagues sees this post and they draft then in top 15-20. :P

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On 10/5/2018 at 2:40 AM, PaddyAustralia said:

Obviously that is a mistake haha (they have tyer ulis with over a block :/). But i can see him improving for sure, defences will have to guard kawhi a bit more tightly on the three point line which means open shots for others including lowry. I think he can be more efficient and put up a career year!

Prediction: 22.7 points/ 7.1 assists/ 4.1 rebounds/ 1.3 steals/ 0.2 blocks/ 3.3 threes/ 46.4 FG% / 86.3 FT% in 32.7 mins a game.

 

Career year indeed. You really think his scoring avg will jump back up by 6 pts, his FG% will match his high of 2 years ago that was a career outlier, career high in 3s, career high in FTs.  AND do it all at age 32 with the same minutes he got last year, which is significantly lower than he had the 5 seasons prior?

 

I think playing with Kawhi is a good fit but those numbers seem wildly optimistic, especially in 32.7 mins a game.

 

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1 minute ago, VaTerp said:

 

Career year indeed. You really think his scoring avg will jump back up by 6 pts, his FG% will match his high of 2 years ago that was a career outlier, career high in 3s, career high in FTs.  AND do it all at age 32 with the same minutes he got last year, which is significantly lower than he had the 5 seasons prior?

 

I think playing with Kawhi is a good fit but those numbers seem wildly optimistic, especially in 32.7 mins a game.

 

Yeah optimistic for sure, but you have to be with the talent he has around him now. No hit on Derozan but Kawhi is a much better player and requires more attention on offence and his defence is way better than Derozans. I think if you play with better players, you play better yourself, and i can see Lowry doing that if he can stay healthy and with them being a legitimate contender for the NBA finals this year.

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1 hour ago, PaddyAustralia said:

Yeah optimistic for sure, but you have to be with the talent he has around him now. No hit on Derozan but Kawhi is a much better player and requires more attention on offence and his defence is way better than Derozans. I think if you play with better players, you play better yourself, and i can see Lowry doing that if he can stay healthy and with them being a legitimate contender for the NBA finals this year.

You're dreaming mate! He will get the same or less mins during the season as the raps will want him fit for part season. No need to push it too hard as apart from Boston and philly and maybe the bucks the rest will be a cruise ship regular season. The raps goal in the finals. 

 

There is also too much other talent which means they don't need to lean heavily on lowry for scoring. I expect him to play off the ball a lot. He may improve triples but he isn't get close to 23 ppg. More like 17-19 range. 

 

18/6.3/4.5/1.3/0.2 and 3.3 triples 2.5 TOs 44/85% on 30.5 mpg.

 

Still good numbers but yours are just unrealistic. Not even his ceiling IMO and I'm a huge fan of his

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6 minutes ago, Jake the snake said:

You're dreaming mate! He will get the same or less mins during the season as the raps will want him fit for part season. No need to push it too hard as apart from Boston and philly and maybe the bucks the rest will be a cruise ship regular season. The raps goal in the finals. 

 

There is also too much other talent which means they don't need to lean heavily on lowry for scoring. I expect him to play off the ball a lot. He may improve triples but he isn't get close to 23 ppg. More like 17-19 range. 

 

18/6.3/4.5/1.3/0.2 and 3.3 triples 2.5 TOs 44/85% on 30.5 mpg.

 

Still good numbers but yours are just unrealistic. Not even his ceiling IMO and I'm a huge fan of his

Haha wait, i thought his numbers from 2016-17 where last years, i have been unbelievably mistaken. Yeah if he played 78 games HEALTHY and didnt improve from his 16-17 season i totally agree with you, i researched incorrectly haha

 

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