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2019 Offseason Closer Thread


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We really should be past idea that team success has a strong correlation to save chances at this point in this thread.

Get married with kids and your NFL team sitting home during the playoffs and this is what you have to look forward to on Saturday nights. Please feel free to add your thoughts   Free

Sorry to tease folks thinking there's a new important post in the Closer Thread. But I get SleeperBot fantasy football alerts on my phone, and I had to chuckle at one that just came across the wire, "

On 2/15/2019 at 2:10 PM, B&F said:

Fantasy Baseball has to move towards more holds scoring than saves or some combination.   Even if a guy starts the season as closer it is highly unlikely hold the gig throughout the whole season.

 

Idk, I like that the scarcity is adding more value to the guaranteed closers. It's the same when any other position faces a shallow year. Just have to prioritize your draft strategy.

Adding holds also nearly eliminates the necessity for trades if you're hurting for saves, since it at least doubles the amount of relievers that you can get the same points from. Of course that depends on league size, but most people play in 10-12 team leagues, where that'd be an issue.

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On 2/18/2019 at 9:04 PM, dkrocka said:

I think morrow is hurt to start the year. That leaves strop, Chavez, and Edwards. I've been reading that it's strop. Are they ever gonna let Edwards close? Does he not have the mentality? The stuff is there, high spin 96 heater and a slider curve thing that nasty. It's not like he's working more than an inning anyway.

 

On 2/18/2019 at 9:08 PM, roscobangs said:

It's Strop's job to lose. I don't think Edwards is a threat to earn any saves.

CJE was killing it when Morrow went down last year, and Maddon chose Strop, who in turn took the job and ran.

 

Maddon has stated he's not naming a closer and will use his RP's based on situation/case by case. However, I'd agree Strop will have the most save chances.

https://www.mlb.com/video/maddon-on-cubs-bullpen/c-2522784383

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6 hours ago, street sharks said:

Idk, I like that the scarcity is adding more value to the guaranteed closers. It's the same when any other position faces a shallow year. Just have to prioritize your draft strategy.

Adding holds also nearly eliminates the necessity for trades if you're hurting for saves, since it at least doubles the amount of relievers that you can get the same points from. Of course that depends on league size, but most people play in 10-12 team leagues, where that'd be an issue.

Leagues aren't going to keep Saves only if there is only a handful of closers left in baseball.  Well maybe leagues with 6 teams or less.  12 team leagues are the "casual public" default on Yahoo, not small 10 teams ones and most private leagues are more than 12 teams and it is in private leagues where any real competition resides.

Also I can see Yahoo and other platforms changing the "default" of Saves in their public casual leagues to "Saves + Holds" by as early as next year possibly as the dedicated closer goes the way of the dodo.

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“The closer is disappearing” idea is being a little overblown.  

 

Who did it last season?  Phillies.  Brewers because Knebel went off the rails, but they settled back on him.  Rays primarily used Romo.  Astros used multiple guys at various times of the year but clearly wanted to use one.  Some teams like the Reds wanted or threw out the idea of using bullpen guys with no apparent roles but their actions were different.  

A lot of times that happens because the bullpen sucks.  Royals had a guy and traded him.  Eventually settled on one guy.  Braves but mainly because Viz wasn’t right.  

So 4 teams, maybe 5?

votaliity is getting confused with teams using a new strategy

Edited by kidtwentytwo
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47 minutes ago, kidtwentytwo said:

“The closer is disappearing” idea is being a little overblown.  

 

Who did it last season?  Phillies.  Brewers because Knebel went off the rails, but they settled back on him.  Rays primarily used Romo.  Astros used multiple guys at various times of the year but clearly wanted to use one.  Some teams like the Reds wanted or threw out the idea of using bullpen guys with no apparent roles but their actions were different.  

A lot of times that happens because the bullpen sucks.  Royals had a guy and traded him.  Eventually settled on one guy.  Braves but mainly because Viz wasn’t right.  

So 4 teams, maybe 5?

votaliity is getting confused with teams using a new strategy

 

Same with the opener “strategy”

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59 minutes ago, kidtwentytwo said:

“The closer is disappearing” idea is being a little overblown.  

 

Who did it last season?  Phillies.  Brewers because Knebel went off the rails, but they settled back on him.  Rays primarily used Romo.  Astros used multiple guys at various times of the year but clearly wanted to use one.  Some teams like the Reds wanted or threw out the idea of using bullpen guys with no apparent roles but their actions were different.  

A lot of times that happens because the bullpen sucks.  Royals had a guy and traded him.  Eventually settled on one guy.  Braves but mainly because Viz wasn’t right.  

So 4 teams, maybe 5?

votaliity is getting confused with teams using a new strategy

Closer isn't dis-appearing because guys like to be in defined roles. Now the best RP is your closer on the other hand...

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1 hour ago, kidtwentytwo said:

“The closer is disappearing” idea is being a little overblown.  

Who did it last season?  Phillies.  Brewers because Knebel went off the rails, but they settled back on him.  Rays primarily used Romo.  Astros used multiple guys at various times of the year but clearly wanted to use one.  Some teams like the Reds wanted or threw out the idea of using bullpen guys with no apparent roles but their actions were different.  

A lot of times that happens because the bullpen sucks.  Royals had a guy and traded him.  Eventually settled on one guy.  Braves but mainly because Viz wasn’t right.  

So 4 teams, maybe 5?

And the Reds and O's and KC was it (one other team anyway) already announced this off season they will be going that route this season.  Red Sox will probably trend to that too is my guess barring someone ceasing the job.  Marlins could.  Seattle could.  Why pay more for a "closer" because of a job title when match-ups make more sense in this stat-driven era anyway?

Firemen were always more important pre Tony LaRussa's invention of a "closer" because it was the best way he could get the max out of Eck back then.  And now firemen are coming back to their rightful place.  It will never ever be that every team uses a dedicated closer.  There will be different approaches.  Baseball has moved beyond that one size fits all paradigm.

As far as defined roles?  Baseball is also moving past that. Openers open for "starters."  Hitters play three or four positions.  Mega-shifts force fielders into totally new territory for them.  The day of the RP having a set slot is ending as well.  They aren't going to be the special snowflakes that get excused from this all in to max flexibility everywhere era.

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They can talk about it all day but until they actually do it...

i don’t doubt some teams will utilize the strategy, but imo it gives the manager or GM an easy out instead of saying it’s a “closer competition this spring”.  These managers generally find a combo that works and go back to that well over and over.  We’ll have guys like Sergio romo with 25 saves and some other guys sprinkled in with 2,3,4 saves at the end of the year.  (and those were after the Rays dealt their primary closer).

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13 hours ago, kidtwentytwo said:

“The closer is disappearing” idea is being a little overblown.  

 

Who did it last season?  Phillies.  Brewers because Knebel went off the rails, but they settled back on him.  Rays primarily used Romo.  Astros used multiple guys at various times of the year but clearly wanted to use one.  Some teams like the Reds wanted or threw out the idea of using bullpen guys with no apparent roles but their actions were different.  

A lot of times that happens because the bullpen sucks.  Royals had a guy and traded him.  Eventually settled on one guy.  Braves but mainly because Viz wasn’t right.  

So 4 teams, maybe 5?

votaliity is getting confused with teams using a new strategy

 

Well its a trend that's more accepted now. 5 teams doing it is 5 more than there were only a few years ago. Its becoming a mainstream view that the "closer" isn't efficient so its safe to argue that more teams will continue to do it. Lets say if that 5 teams goes up to 8 this year, that's only 22 dedicated closers. Of those 22, how many will be reliable all year? So even if less than a third of the league is doing it it still has a pretty big impact.

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14 hours ago, kidtwentytwo said:

“The closer is disappearing” idea is being a little overblown.  

 

Who did it last season?  Phillies.  Brewers because Knebel went off the rails, but they settled back on him.  Rays primarily used Romo.  Astros used multiple guys at various times of the year but clearly wanted to use one.  Some teams like the Reds wanted or threw out the idea of using bullpen guys with no apparent roles but their actions were different.  

A lot of times that happens because the bullpen sucks.  Royals had a guy and traded him.  Eventually settled on one guy.  Braves but mainly because Viz wasn’t right.  

So 4 teams, maybe 5?

votaliity is getting confused with teams using a new strategy

 

Im not sure that its just that simple. Managers seem to be more open to flexibility. We are on a 4-5 year trend and i dont think it can be summed up in just volatility.

https://www.pitcherlist.com/going-deep-were-drafting-saves-wrong/

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1 hour ago, Magoo said:

There’s still the same number of saves out there though. It’s just harder to predict.

 

 

 

yeah, exactly. even if defined closers did disappear, which is far from a given at this point despite the interesting trends, there would still be about the same number of saves happening. they'd just go to more different guys in a less predictable way. that would change the strategies involved, obviously, but it wouldn't immediately mean that we should just throw away the category. 

granted, the entire save statistic has always been kind of made up and stupid, and the idea of getting rid of it bears thinking about regardless of pitcher usage trends

but i think we're jumping the gun a little bit declaring the age of the closer / the save to be over 

 

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2 hours ago, wily mo said:

 

yeah, exactly. even if defined closers did disappear, which is far from a given at this point despite the interesting trends, there would still be about the same number of saves happening. they'd just go to more different guys in a less predictable way. that would change the strategies involved, obviously, but it wouldn't immediately mean that we should just throw away the category. 

granted, the entire save statistic has always been kind of made up and stupid, and the idea of getting rid of it bears thinking about regardless of pitcher usage trends

but i think we're jumping the gun a little bit declaring the age of the closer / the save to be over 

 

I think the Milwaukee bullpen is a perfect example of the more fluid type situation. Hader will get some, Knebel will loss ops quicker than your traditional guy to a Jeffress, but he’s still the default guy. 

No matter what the metrics say, there’s still an intangible mindset/skill in closing games despite how hard ownership tries to dilute their arbitration value..

 

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6 hours ago, Charlesco said:

The continued devaluation of the "closer."

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-trends-to-watch-in-2019/c-304007856

This puts more of an emphasis on a stars and scrubs approach to drafting RP.  Egro, try and grab one the elite ones early to secure one the few 30+ Save guys. Then just wait out a grab the last few/speculative RP towards the end.

 

There is less value then ever trying to grab the middle guys.

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10 hours ago, Slatykamora said:

This puts more of an emphasis on a stars and scrubs approach to drafting RP.  Egro, try and grab one the elite ones early to secure one the few 30+ Save guys. Then just wait out a grab the last few/speculative RP towards the end.

 

There is less value then ever trying to grab the middle guys.

maybe im just banking on results from these guys like they performed last year but it seems that there are more than a couple guys I personally like/trust

 

for me I would take - chapman, Kimbrel, diaz, Osuna, vasquwz, hand, Doolittle, iglesiaz, Leclerc,

I also kinda like knebel and vizcaino, and Bradley late

 

im avoiding kenley and blake (trust the other top tier options more)

other than that I don't like many other options

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11 minutes ago, colepenhagen said:

maybe im just banking on results from these guys like they performed last year but it seems that there are more than a couple guys I personally like/trust

 

for me I would take - chapman, Kimbrel, diaz, Osuna, vasquwz, hand, Doolittle, iglesiaz, Leclerc,

I also kinda like knebel and vizcaino, and Bradley late

 

im avoiding kenley and blake (trust the other top tier options more)

other than that I don't like many other options

 

why avoid Blake?

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5 minutes ago, Members_Only_76 said:

 

why avoid Blake?

mostly because I like chapman and Kimbrel more but also because of him being in Oakland and him being a potential trade chip if the price is right. idk maybe its not warranted but if im paying up I want him to hit the whole checklist- team, job, stuff, track record, and if hes traded I want him to retain the closer job where he lands. not saying blake wont if he is dealt just better options id rather have 

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I'm sure this has been asked before, but I am in a 5x5 league where we have Saves+Holds-Blown Saves as a category. Was wondering if anyone has played in a league with this setting and if they have any "sleeper" Holds guys to target late in the draft? 

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2 hours ago, Willsea33 said:

I'm sure this has been asked before, but I am in a 5x5 league where we have Saves+Holds-Blown Saves as a category. Was wondering if anyone has played in a league with this setting and if they have any "sleeper" Holds guys to target late in the draft? 

Move over to the middle relievers thread. but in my points league with saves, holds, and blown saves I targeted Rosenthal in was, and drob and seranthony in philly.

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On 2/22/2019 at 12:55 PM, colepenhagen said:

maybe im just banking on results from these guys like they performed last year but it seems that there are more than a couple guys I personally like/trust

 

for me I would take - chapman, Kimbrel, diaz, Osuna, vasquwz, hand, Doolittle, iglesiaz, Leclerc,

I also kinda like knebel and vizcaino, and Bradley late

 

im avoiding kenley and blake (trust the other top tier options more)

other than that I don't like many other options

 

You'd really take Kimbrel without him being signed right now?  It's starting to get late and the situation is a complete unknown right now.  

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I don't really have a link for this, just reading stuff on a Sunday morning, but I get the sense Addison Reed may have a better chance at closing than everyone is giving him.  Twins feel his struggles last year were injury related, he's making 8.5 mil, and he's done it before...

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