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Elfrid Payton 2018-2019 Season Outlook


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DROP CITY

Relax.....  First of all, yesterday was a blowout.    Second of all, he had 4 fouls. Hence why Frazier played the majority of 3rd. Then Pels pulled away in 4th so no point to play him m

AD was out last game, it’s only right he played alot better with the Brow back in the lineup. I see big things coming with the Elf, especially when Mirotic is back. Hes going to be an assist monster just watch. Keep in mind he hasn’t really played much with this team, the more chemistry and rapport he builds, the bigger his lines will be.  

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On 12/31/2018 at 9:04 PM, j3rkthenurk said:

 

They said before the game that he was only going to be given 6 min stretches, so he was probably taken out of the game because he fulfilled his 24 min restriction.

Nah, he was holding it the way he held it when he broke the finger when it first happened. He came back in and first time he really went to the left he couldn't control the ball. I just share the insights I get from watching the local broadcasts on League Pass in real time. Sharing quickly means you don't have the luxury of time passing and having that 20/20 hindsight. 

On 12/31/2018 at 10:39 PM, RunCMC said:

 

Umm... hes totally fine, over reaction much. 

 

 

 

I just share what I watch on League Pass. It isn't really an overreaction when you report what the home announcers are saying during the local broadcast. 

 

Obviously he played better today. Didn't watch the game. Anyone notice if he was clutching his hand at all? Would love to see this team back with a healthy Mirotic and Elf. They are dangerous and very fantasy friendly. 

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30 minutes ago, thezing1 said:

Nah, he was holding it the way he held it when he broke the finger when it first happened. He came back in and first time he really went to the left he couldn't control the ball. I just share the insights I get from watching the local broadcasts on League Pass in real time. Sharing quickly means you don't have the luxury of time passing and having that 20/20 hindsight.

 

Or you completely missed Rotoworld blurb where they said he would be limited to six-minute stretches...

 

''Elfrid Payton (finger) will start on Monday against the Timberwolves.
He's been out since November, so he'll be limited to six-minute stretches in his first game back, but his return to the rotation will obliterate Tim Frazier's fantasy value''
 
 
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I reported Kembas injury situation last season and got a warning for it. Just saying... I didn't think I was doing anything wrong, but it seems that you need to be careful how you present those situations where players are seemingly injuring themselves.

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8 hours ago, j3rkthenurk said:

 

Or you completely missed Rotoworld blurb where they said he would be limited to six-minute stretches...

 

''Elfrid Payton (finger) will start on Monday against the Timberwolves.
He's been out since November, so he'll be limited to six-minute stretches in his first game back, but his return to the rotation will obliterate Tim Frazier's fantasy value''
 
 

Dude, I know the minutes are limited. I own Elf everywhere and have been high on him coming into the season. I am simply watching the game and reporting. It was like 1:51 if I remember off the top of my head to end the 4Q. It was possession game down the stretch if I remember correctly and he checked back in and the Pels pulled away with FTs. Context is everything and you can only get it if you watch the games. You don't check in down the stretch to check out with less than 2 minutes in crunch time to then check back in to save 30 seconds off of your minutes cap. I can't go back and forth on this. You can have the last word if you need it. 

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1 hour ago, ovofnd said:

 

No. Someone speculated he was while watching the game. He’s fine.

Ok good lord... was having a hard time telling cause I can't find any real news on it.... appreciate the input 

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On 6.1.2019 at 4:01 PM, droselicious said:

ROS projections?

I'm not excited.

 

They have been winning the last three games and his minutes have been restricted under 30 min. And they are finding every opportunity they can to play Frazier and Jackson. I feel like he is not going to be unleashed and his averages will hoover around 25-28 minutes. That is not enough to put up good value. They are really forceful attacking team when everyone is healthy so the stats are there. He just needs to play +30 as a starter should, but it may not be happening. I haven't watched enough to understand why, but I would suspect the shooting has something to do with it.

 

 

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4 hours ago, JormaJormala said:

I'm not excited.

 

They have been winning the last three games and his minutes have been restricted under 30 min. And they are finding every opportunity they can to play Frazier and Jackson. I feel like he is not going to be unleashed and his averages will hoover around 25-28 minutes. That is not enough to put up good value. They are really forceful attacking team when everyone is healthy so the stats are there. He just needs to play +30 as a starter should, but it may not be happening. I haven't watched enough to understand why, but I would suspect the shooting has something to do with it.

 

 

Relax..... 

First of all, yesterday was a blowout. 

 

Second of all, he had 4 fouls. Hence why Frazier played the majority of 3rd. Then Pels pulled away in 4th so no point to play him more. 

 

Third and lastly, he still played 28 minutes (Frazier only played 15?).

 

They are 4-1 since Payton came back (they only lost by 5 in that one loss). 

 

Just one bad night. That's all. 

Pelicans are better with Payton. 

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54 minutes ago, JStyles said:

Was dropped in my league and considering throwing my #3 waiver on him - is general sentiment in here that he's worth holding in 12 team leagues despite the low-ish minutes since his return?

 

I'd grab instantly, he's not droppable in 12s. Payton helped the Pels win in the beginning of the season and he's helping them again now as they make a push for play offs. 

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I made statistical analysis on him compared to his years in Orlando (and little bit in Phoenix). Mind you, I'm looking at this as points league player.

 

What I'm looking at is:

 

Is Elfrid Payton now the same he was at Orlando (and Phoenix) or is he better/worse?

 

If he is what he has been before, he is borderline to even own. If so his best case scenario is to be the last guy on my 14 man roster and cutworthy when playoffs start and I'm looking for plug-and-play options for better short term value. So I will try to find hope for him be better than he was before as I might just rather cut my losses if I can find player with better long term value what he has. 

 

He has been very consistent as a fantasy player through his career. He was 75.4 fp as a starter last season. He was at that mark on his rookie season too and his worst season was his sophomore year 2015-2016 when he barely notched a 70 fp. Elfs third season was his best in fantasy and in IRL. He had career high on blocks, points, rebs and assist. That was good enough for 77.5 - 78 fp for the season.

 

[For reference, Kris Dunn was 81 last season and has been 81 this season too. Jeff Teague has been 80 this season (83 last season) and Eric Bledsoe has been close to 81 this season. Guys like Trae Young, Malcolm Brogdon and Ricky Rubio are something between 72-73 points and are at the last line of roster worthy point guards on the board. You can find guys like SGA, Reggie Jackson and DJ Augustin from the waiver.]

 

His minutes were highest on his rookie year when he had 30.3 minutes per game. After that it has been consistently between 28.6 - 29.4 minutes. I think that is pretty interesting. I do recall critique for his outside shooting but also for his lackluster defensive presence. Maybe those combined explain his rather low minutes.

 

As far as shooting goes, he has taken a step up in ft shooting. Being a +.500 shooter to +.600 shooter. He has been better around the rim too as his fg% was just over .400 for first two seasons and over (.520) or close (.471 - .490) to .500 since then. He doesn't like the three ball and looking at his percentages I don't blame him.

 

Now this season. I took away those two games where he got injured. He is looking worryingly to fall on the category of "he is what he is". So far he has played 29.2 minutes per game and produced very familiar 75.1 fantasy points during that time. His numbers don't look that much different other than his 3pt shooting and free throws that are at .412 and .750. Both are considerably better than his career averages. That might indicate that his scoring might come down unless he has developed those areas. Its too early to tell. 

 

The overall feel is that he has so much more talent around him than before. People who score and shoot a lot (AD, Jrue, Miro, Randle), people who can make plays for others (Jrue, Randle), people who rebound a lot etc... At the same time Pelicans is very attack minded unit and produces a lot of stats. The  bigger role might not be there, but the stats are. Maybe he doesn't have as much finger print on this team and how it will run, but he can keep up with his past stats just because there are more to have.

 

If he has developed his shooting, it would help things. But the most important thing would be to get more playing time (maybe via efficient shooting and defense not being a factor of players value?). Just  by playing 32 minutes per game with same production would make him a 82 fp player.

 

I like the idea of Elf being playmaker in a attacking minded team (2nd offrtg, 5th pace) with better percentages. There is no room for huge improvement for fp/minutes, but he can easily hold his value and have small uptick in best case. But the real factor is him playing more. If you look what they got for guards it really should not be a competition unless the coach wants to run it through Jrue time to time and have more shooters on the field with him. 

 

Summary: I'm optimistic that he can at least hold his past value of 75+ fp and have hope for couple of a points more. Can he get to that Dunn-Teague-Bledsoe level? Yes, but only if his minutes go past 32 per night. Someone more in tune with Pels can speculate on the odds of that happening. 

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