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2018-19 Off-Season and Hot Stove Thread


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30 minutes ago, Weekday Warrior said:

So, in this new age of contract conservatism, why should Harper or Machado realistically expect a record setting contract?  $300 million really should be the absolute drop dead limit...

 

1.  Just counting inflation, you're talking $350 million in today's dollars.  (Stanton's contract was actually $325 mill so make it closer to $375 million.)

 

2.  Teams are making more money every year, even after accounting for inflation.  That's more dollars to go around.

 

3.  Giancarlo Stanton is not Bryce Harper or Manny Machado.  Each player brings their own unique skills to the table, and, as such, they need to be evaluated on their own merits instead of being compared to a contract of a similar dollar range a few years back.

 

4.  If MLB revenues continue their current trend, and with inflation, Stanton's deal doesn't look so bad.  His skills will continue to decline as he makes $30 mil-ish per year, but so will the value of that $30 million relative to what teams are paying.  Revenues and salaries can't grow forever, but until they show  signs of leveling off, you have to pay the going rate for talent.

 

5.  Who says that we're in an era of "contract conservatism"?  Not breaking the bank for Mike Moustakas is a totally different thing than potentially paying a franchise cornerstone player in their mid 20s.  Being smarter about which FAs get paid doesn't mean less spending on FAs as a group.

 

 

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Lol. If he leaves, he's a snake, traitor, ring-chaser, etc. If he stays, he's 'soft'.    

Close,  they're 2x dumber

Apologies if anyone already posted this but...    

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1 hour ago, tonycpsu said:

 

1.  Just counting inflation, you're talking $350 million in today's dollars.  (Stanton's contract was actually $325 mill so make it closer to $375 million.)

 

2.  Teams are making more money every year, even after accounting for inflation.  That's more dollars to go around.

 

3.  Giancarlo Stanton is not Bryce Harper or Manny Machado.  Each player brings their own unique skills to the table, and, as such, they need to be evaluated on their own merits instead of being compared to a contract of a similar dollar range a few years back.

 

4.  If MLB revenues continue their current trend, and with inflation, Stanton's deal doesn't look so bad.  His skills will continue to decline as he makes $30 mil-ish per year, but so will the value of that $30 million relative to what teams are paying.  Revenues and salaries can't grow forever, but until they show  signs of leveling off, you have to pay the going rate for talent.

 

5.  Who says that we're in an era of "contract conservatism"?  Not breaking the bank for Mike Moustakas is a totally different thing than potentially paying a franchise cornerstone player in their mid 20s.  Being smarter about which FAs get paid doesn't mean less spending on FAs as a group.

 

 

 

I would argue that Stanton is a fair proxy for Harper in terms of what the player brings to the table (and Stanton even has the slightly higher WAR whether you start counting from ‘12 or ‘13).

 

So Stanton’s contract adjusted for inflation seems like the best case scenario argument that Harper’s camp can make, but it also seems vulnerable to pushback that with hindsight the Stanton contract was viewed as an overpay as reflected in the tepid trade market just to unload it (at today’s dollar values and following a career season, no less)

 

At the end of the day a willing buyer and a willing seller can agree to whatever they want though, these are just abstract negotiating points.

 

Obviously Harper/Machado’s camp can argue that their age and generational talent puts them in a category that makes last season’s depressed valuations for guys like JD Martinez inapplicable, but if I’m negotating on the other side I’m arguing that the market landscape is making adjustments resulting from bad mega contracts handed out in the past to star players.

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Kind of a pathetic gambit by the Phils there if true.  I don't think Eovaldi's worth what he got, but his agent could have a field day pointing out how much better even a regressed Eovaldi would be than any non-Nola Phillies starter.  If they really think he's that brittle that he can't handle starting, then they shouldn't have wasted time going after him.  He was going to get a starting job somewhere, and wasn't going to settle for a closer's role, not to mention a lower salary.

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The Winter Meetings are on and we already got more deals this season pre-Meetings than last year through March at least with bigger names like Corbin, Paxton, Eovaldi, Goldy and Donaldson already signed.  Can't wait to see what this week brings.  Nice off season so far.

 

I don't understand why Nick Castellanos hasn't gotten more rumors of deals ink so far.  Detroit says they will trade him and he is maybe in the top 2 or 3 after Harper for outfielders available this off season.  And galactic light years cheaper.

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30 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

The Winter Meetings are on and we already got more deals this season pre-Meetings than last year through March at least with bigger names like Corbin, Paxton, Eovaldi, Goldy and Donaldson already signed.  Can't wait to see what this week brings.  Nice off season so far.

 

I don't understand why Nick Castellanos hasn't gotten more rumors of deals ink so far.  Detroit says they will trade him and he is maybe in the top 2 or 3 after Harper for outfielders available this off season.  And galactic light years cheaper.

Only one year of control

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Mets, Yankees, Marlins In Talks On Three-Team Deal

 

Mets, Yankees, Marlins In Talks On Three-Team Deal

December 10th, 2018 at 10:02pm CST • By Mark Polishuk

The Mets, Yankees, and Marlins have discussed a three-team trade that would see J.T. Realmuto end up on the Mets’ roster, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports (Twitter links).  It doesn’t appear like anything imminent is coming between all parties, according to SNY.tv’s Andy Martino.

More analysis to come…

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51 minutes ago, STLSU said:

Mets, Yankees, Marlins In Talks On Three-Team Deal

 

Mets, Yankees, Marlins In Talks On Three-Team Deal

December 10th, 2018 at 10:02pm CST • By Mark Polishuk

The Mets, Yankees, and Marlins have discussed a three-team trade that would see J.T. Realmuto end up on the Mets’ roster, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports (Twitter links).  It doesn’t appear like anything imminent is coming between all parties, according to SNY.tv’s Andy Martino.

More analysis to come…

 

came to post this.  what a surprise!!!

 

u assume the yanks would be getting Thor or Degrom and mets getting realmuto.  im guessing the marlins like the yanks package better than the mets, which is why the yanks are involved.  maybe it andujar and some yanks minor leaguers???

 

 

"Marlins get Florial and Nimmo, Yanks get Thor and Todd Frazier, and the Mets get Andujar and JT. Yankees then sign Machado and the Mets sign Pollock."

Edited by jfazz23
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6 hours ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

The Winter Meetings are on and we already got more deals this season pre-Meetings than last year through March at least with bigger names like Corbin, Paxton, Eovaldi, Goldy and Donaldson already signed.  Can't wait to see what this week brings.  Nice off season so far.

 

I don't understand why Nick Castellanos hasn't gotten more rumors of deals ink so far.  Detroit says they will trade him and he is maybe in the top 2 or 3 after Harper for outfielders available this off season.  And galactic light years cheaper.

 

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Get ready for another underwhelming trade coming up for Miami. Other teams know by now to just wait things out and Miami will lower the asking price. This is getting hilarious. Miami is that owner in Fantasy baseball that will decline every good offer you make and out of nowhere counter with a crazy offer that takes one second before you click "Accept". The kind of offer that makes you think "is he drunk or am I underrating the players he wants?" lol.

 

It was only a year ago that they wanted Robles or Acuna. Keep that in mind when we hear what they'll get in a trade. 

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I seriously doubt the Mets and Yanks make that trade. I would be in genuine shock.

 

If the Mets do get rid of Thor/Nimmo and receive JT/Andujar (no way though!), they'd go after Kluber then? Offer McNeil and others? Cause that would leave McNeil without a spot.

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2 hours ago, Sine_cera said:

 

Get ready for another underwhelming trade coming up for Miami. Other teams know by now to just wait things out and Miami will lower the asking price. This is getting hilarious. Miami is that owner in Fantasy baseball that will decline every good offer you make and out of nowhere counter with a crazy offer that takes one second before you click "Accept". The kind of offer that makes you think "is he drunk or am I underrating the players he wants?" lol.

 

It was only a year ago that they wanted Robles or Acuna. Keep that in mind when we hear what they'll get in a trade. 

Heck, per your earlier post it was just this year they wanted Bellinger plus. They're definitely asking for a lot. 

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