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2018-19 Off-Season and Hot Stove Thread


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3 hours ago, sngehl01 said:

I think this is the play. 

 

They can. But I'm not convinced Alvarez + is better for Houston. Alvarez just posted an OPS over 1.000 between AA/AAAA during his age 21 season. Don't get me wrong, I'd rather have Tucker than Alvarez, but if you have to add some nice complementary pieces to Yordan to get a guy like JTR then I'd rather trade Tuck. 

 

It makes absolute sense. Guys are quoting Chirinos stats the last 2 years, but he was significantly worse in 2018 than 2017 (in 113 games vs 88). Realmuto is very affordable and his control for 2 years plays right into their window for some serious contention. Trading Tucker for JTR makes sense, or SP. I don't think he should be available for anything else. Maybe they can send Tucker + for JTR and Caleb Smith. Smith could be a real nice add at the back of the rotation. 

 

No it makes no sense.

 

Verlander and Cole are FA next season so unless Houston wants to pay them, they'll be gone. Morton is already gone. Keuchel is looking to get paid and McCullers just had TJS.

 

You do realize there's a serious chance that in 2020 the Astros will have a pitching staff of Whitley, Josh James and McCullers as their Top 3 guys? 

 

Even if they want to go all-in this year the Realmuto trade would make no sense. Trading for Bauer/Kluber/Greinke would. Beyond Verlander and Cole the Astros pitching staff has serious question marks. McHugh was good out of the pen but can he be a good starter again? How good is Josh James going to be? Is Whitley ready and how many innings can he pitch?

 

Sign Cruz if you're so concerned about the hitting and trade Tucker or Alvarez for a stud SP. 

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Lol. If he leaves, he's a snake, traitor, ring-chaser, etc. If he stays, he's 'soft'.    

Close,  they're 2x dumber

Apologies if anyone already posted this but...    

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19 hours ago, XxxOilOverloadxxX said:

Gathering info today... seems like White Sox are posers in this Machado/Harper sweepstakes.... Dodgers don't want to commit the resources to Harper...Klentak the ball is in your court! Don't blow it!

 

Your info contradicts what I have heard from someone I know who has a bit of inside info. The rumor fed to Olney about the Sox not being willing to break the bank was pure BS (particularly w/ regard to Manny who is their primary target). General consensus is that if the Sox get neither player, it's not because they were outbid. Put another way: the Sox are going to throw a huge number at Manny -- he and his agent know this -- and he is making additional visits to essentially dare Philly and NYY to make a Godfather offer. He would prefer NY, but how often does $$$ win out? For that reason I think it's between Philly and the Sox. 

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Angels sign Harvey. It's not clear how much he cost them, but this is a potentially good signing for a relatively small chunk of change. 

 

Eta 1 year, 11 million. Eh. Not awful, but not an obvious steal at this time. 

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19 minutes ago, AnonymousRob said:

Angels sign Harvey. It's not clear how much he cost them, but this is a potentially good signing for a relatively small chunk of change. 

 

Eta 1 year, 11 million. Eh. Not awful, but not an obvious steal at this time. 

 

LA, baby.  Party boy is back after time served in the party wilderness of Cincy.  Let us see how long it will take before he sinks back into his old NY ways.  (Hope he doesn't of course but not the best landing spot for him to keep his act together).

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28 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

 

LA, baby.  Party boy is back after time served in the party wilderness of Cincy.  Let us see how long it will take before he sinks back into his old NY ways.  (Hope he doesn't of course but not the best landing spot for him to keep his act together).

Anaheim is not quite LA, but I get your point for sure. Hope he turns into something for the Halos but not holding my breath.

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1 hour ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

 

LA, baby.  Party boy is back after time served in the party wilderness of Cincy.  Let us see how long it will take before he sinks back into his old NY ways.  (Hope he doesn't of course but not the best landing spot for him to keep his act together).

 

He's gonna get his chit rocked in the AL, don't sugarcoat it

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1 hour ago, RedRaider27 said:

Anaheim is not quite LA, but I get your point for sure. Hope he turns into something for the Halos but not holding my breath.

Yeah Anaheim is really far from Los Angeles. No worries of temptation. He's basically in Salt Lake City 

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15 hours ago, Sine_cera said:

 

No it makes no sense.

 

Verlander and Cole are FA next season so unless Houston wants to pay them, they'll be gone. Morton is already gone. Keuchel is looking to get paid and McCullers just had TJS.

 

You do realize there's a serious chance that in 2020 the Astros will have a pitching staff of Whitley, Josh James and McCullers as their Top 3 guys? 

 

Even if they want to go all-in this year the Realmuto trade would make no sense. Trading for Bauer/Kluber/Greinke would. Beyond Verlander and Cole the Astros pitching staff has serious question marks. McHugh was good out of the pen but can he be a good starter again? How good is Josh James going to be? Is Whitley ready and how many innings can he pitch?

 

Sign Cruz if you're so concerned about the hitting and trade Tucker or Alvarez for a stud SP. 

 

Yes, it makes sense. We can keep going back and forth on that. 

 

Yes, Verlander and Cole are free agents. With the volatility of pitching, there not many safe long term options you can tie your cart to. Even if they make a play for a guy like Bauer (who would cost more than Tucker) he's got 2 years left. You're not bringing back a long term stable rotation piece that's affordable for just Tucker. 

However, Tucker, or even less, can get you JTR. JTR can very well be the piece that tips the scale on their WS shot. 

I don't argue they need SP more than they need a guy like Realmuto. However, Realmuto is more realistically obtainable. Cleveland seems to be in no big rush to trade an arm. 

 

They need to make their team better. Period. Realmuto makes their team quite a bit better. If you aren't going to hold guys to fewer runs, you need to score more. 

 

And, yes, I'm more than familiar with who they'd be looking at in 2020. Don't forget Corbin Martin, or JB Bukauskas. Rogelio Armenteros is worth mentioning. I'm not a big Cionel Perez guy, but he's looked solid. 

And it's not just about the hitting. It's about the defense (where JTR is very good) and where you get that offense. Getting JTR's production from a fairly vacant lineup spot is a bigger impact, IMO, than what you get from Cruz out of DH over a guy like Gurriel or White. 


There are moves to be made by them, for sure. I'd love to see them get an arm, but I'm more than okay with them getting JTR and using this season to try to extend Cole, find another arm at the deadline, or just spending some money next offseason. 

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BBT Boston Sunday Globe

 

Dave Dombrowski, president of baseball operations, Red Sox — Dombrowski isn’t alone in his recommendation to have the league impose free agent signing deadlines and trade deadlines in the offseason so the process doesn’t drag on. The lack of activity at the Winter Meetings is ridiculous. The league is getting bad publicity because the sport’s biggest winter showcase is resulting in minimal transactions. The free agent signing deadline should be the last day of the Winter Meetings. And if a player is not signed by then, then not until the beginning of spring training. Teams and agents have plenty of time between the end of the World Series until mid-December to figure out what they want to do.

 

Love this headline

Too many teams are tanking and that’s leading to dwindling competition.

The 89-win Mariners and the 91-win Indians are starting to dismantle their teams. So what’s going to be left for true contenders in the American League?

Is it just a three-team race among Boston, New York, and Houston? It’s not a stretch to say the American League has gotten worse. Maybe there are opportunities for teams such as the Twins and White Sox to improve and have a better chance of unseating the Indians in the Central. But now there are as many teams dismantling than building up. How far are the teams building up — such as the Twins, White Sox, Rangers, and Angels — going to go? And there are teams such as the Orioles, Royals, and Tigers who make no pretenses about rebuilding. So the Red Sox have a great opportunity to repeat. The competition wasn’t great last season, which is why the Sox were able to win 108 regular-season games. They just demolished the non-competitive teams. No wonder attendance was down. Who wants to watch the Red Sox play the Orioles or the Tigers or anyone in the AL Central other than the Indians?

Something has to be done to address this. There’s simply too much tanking. The Seattle situation is ridiculous. You can’t win 89 games and not think if you make the right moves you could improve and make the postseason.

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There is way too much money in television deals now that gate attendance doens't matter a lick.  Teams can rebuild ie owners horde money and pay lesser players less and they still get the same monies from their television deals. 

 

2021 CBA is going to be a war because owners don't pay stars anymore because they don't need asses in the seats.  If owners don't pay 30 yr olds anymore, players will demand then to be free agents much, much younger and get rid of the arbitration system.  Right now owners get players legit prime years ridiculously cheaply, players went along with this system because they used to get silly money once they hit free agency.  But owners are working the system by keeping elite prospects in the minors a year or more longer to delay their arbitration clock and thus delay the back end year they reach total free agency.  So owners are stealing a year of their players prime money earning years right out of the gate.  And then when the player now reaches free agency at 28-29 they're not rewarded for their time getting paid relatively nothing through arbitration anymore because they're now "too old" to invest big longterm monies in. 

 

Next CBA will totally overhaul the arbitration system, if not scrap it.  Minor league service years will count towards some sort of restricted free agency 5 years after you signed your first MLB contract (or 25yrs old, which ever is earlier).  So if you sign as a 17 yr old, you are a RFA when your 22yrs old - you sign out of college it's when you become 25yrs old.  The team could match any offer sheet you sign - but you'll have a bidding war for the players services as a 22-25 yr old player. 

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I don't love the impact tanking has on the entertainment value of the product, but the idea that the Mariners 89 wins last year mean anything is silly.  Their Pythagorean W-L was 77-85, and the division around them is getting much better.  Their young core was... well, they didn't have one, because Dipoto traded them all away to contend over the past few years.  It didn't work, and it was definitely time for them to rebuild rather than making a feeble attempt to chase the one playoff spot that's up for grabs.


Arizona's a much better example of the argument.  Just 82-80 last season, but should have won 86-76 based on run differential.  Not much of a young core, but also not as much debt in terms of underwater contracts as Seattle.  Or the Pirates -- a .500 team last season but refuses to add pieces to get to the next level (don't talk to me about Pittsburgh being a small market -- Nutting is the 10th wealthiest owner in MLB.)  With a lot less strength at the top of the NL, those teams could definitely add a piece or three and make a playoff run.

 

The club I really respect in all of this is Tampa.  A laughing stock for so many years for never spending money, they're realizing that they have some young cost-controlled talent and they're going for it.  Not spending a ton of money, but adding pieces and at least setting themselves up for a big deal or two in July if they're able to build on last season's success.

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17 hours ago, Sine_cera said:

 

No it makes no sense.

 

Verlander and Cole are FA next season so unless Houston wants to pay them, they'll be gone. Morton is already gone. Keuchel is looking to get paid and McCullers just had TJS.

 

You do realize there's a serious chance that in 2020 the Astros will have a pitching staff of Whitley, Josh James and McCullers as their Top 3 guys? 

 

Even if they want to go all-in this year the Realmuto trade would make no sense. Trading for Bauer/Kluber/Greinke would. Beyond Verlander and Cole the Astros pitching staff has serious question marks. McHugh was good out of the pen but can he be a good starter again? How good is Josh James going to be? Is Whitley ready and how many innings can he pitch?

 

Sign Cruz if you're so concerned about the hitting and trade Tucker or Alvarez for a stud SP. 

 

Whitley, Josh James, and McCullers would basically be the worst case scenario top 3 for Houston and that honestly wouldn't be all that bad. But yeah not likely a World Series winning pitching staff. 

 

As you stated Whitley can't be counted on for a bunch of post season innings at this point in his career.  He's already gotten injured.

 

But even so they have some time to make some moves. Also I read somewhere Verlander has an option for 22 mil in 2020 if he reaches certain incentives over the life of his contract.  So The Stros may still have Veralnder in 2020.

 

Honestly Bauer makes a ton of sense for Houston to trade for. He's still fairly young and would fit in well with Houston's "time frame". He's a steal at 6.5 million for this year.  

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Just a reminder, but last offseason people were accusing Tampa, Pittsburgh, and Oakland of tanking and refusing to spend money. All three teams ended up being contenders, with Oakland being one of the best teams in baseball and making the playoffs. 

 

Just because a team dumps some money and shifts things around doesn't mean they're tanking. Sometimes teams are definitely tanking (we're all looking at you, Miami). Sometimes they're aiming for the future but still putting out a roster that can contend that season if things break right. lol at Drombowski grumbling about this. His team had a 2018 payroll of about 227 million. Pittsburgh, Oakland, and Tampa had a combined payroll of around 240 million. Let's look at this another way - David Price alone cost 30 million. The entire Oakland payroll last year was 80 million. Drew Pomeranz made more than anyone on Tampa last year. The larger teams have a level of flexibility other teams can only dream of. Heck, look at Boston fans when they grumble about how other teams don't spend money. They've lost all touch with the concept of a budget. A handful of teams are just playing with Monopoly money. Some teams have a lot of money but there's still a ceiling and when the well runs dry they need to figure out the fastest way back to contention. Like Seattle, who had the 10th highest payroll and still came up short despite vastly overachieving. Now their roster is older and they've got zero depth and an awful farm system. The remaining squads cannot possibly compete on the same level. And the smart ones don't try - they instead have to play a different game to become winners. This is the way baseball has structured the system. We shouldn't blame teams for being smart.

 

TLDR lol at rich teams for setting up a system that encourages rich teams to succeed then pikachu face when non rich teams try to figure out another way to compete.

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3 minutes ago, AnonymousRob said:

Just a reminder, but last offseason people were accusing Tampa, Pittsburgh, and Oakland of tanking and refusing to spend money. All three teams ended up being contenders, with Oakland being one of the best teams in baseball and making the playoffs. 

 

Just because a team dumps some money and shifts things around doesn't mean they're tanking. Sometimes teams are definitely tanking (we're all looking at you, Miami). Sometimes they're aiming for the future but still putting out a roster that can contend that season if things break right. lol at Drombowski grumbling about this. His team had a 2018 payroll of about 227 million. Pittsburgh, Oakland, and Tampa had a combined payroll of around 240 million. Let's look at this another way - David Price alone cost 30 million. The entire Oakland payroll last year was 80 million. Drew Pomeranz made more than anyone on Tampa last year. The larger teams have a level of flexibility other teams can only dream of. Heck, look at Boston fans when they grumble about how other teams don't spend money. They've lost all touch with the concept of a budget. A handful of teams are just playing with Monopoly money. Some teams have a lot of money but there's still a ceiling and when the well runs dry they need to figure out the fastest way back to contention. Like Seattle, who had the 10th highest payroll and still came up short despite vastly overachieving. Now their roster is older and they've got zero depth and an awful farm system. The remaining squads cannot possibly compete on the same level. And the smart ones don't try - they instead have to play a different game to become winners. This is the way baseball has structured the system. We shouldn't blame teams for being smart.

 

TLDR lol at rich teams for setting up a system that encourages rich teams to succeed then pikachu face when non rich teams try to figure out another way to compete.

 

Related image

 

Quality post right there

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On 12/14/2018 at 5:30 PM, Sine_cera said:

Oh my. "They just don't know whether they can afford him in their budget".....

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/the-quietest-swing-changer/

 

Probably not super fantasy relevant but for the deepest of leagues,  but good article still.  The coach who changed him is now with the White Sox starting this year. 

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1 hour ago, 2ndCitySox said:

Wouldn't the TV deals start drying up if baseball puts out a generally bad product? 

Yankee and Red Sox fans would watch their respective teams even if they were playing the Albany preschoolers so that takes care of local broadcasting.  The national media thinks the whole country thinks the same way.

 

 

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1 hour ago, AnonymousRob said:

Just a reminder, but last offseason people were accusing Tampa, Pittsburgh, and Oakland of tanking and refusing to spend money. All three teams ended up being contenders, with Oakland being one of the best teams in baseball and making the playoffs. 

 

Just because a team dumps some money and shifts things around doesn't mean they're tanking. Sometimes teams are definitely tanking (we're all looking at you, Miami). Sometimes they're aiming for the future but still putting out a roster that can contend that season if things break right. lol at Drombowski grumbling about this. His team had a 2018 payroll of about 227 million. Pittsburgh, Oakland, and Tampa had a combined payroll of around 240 million. Let's look at this another way - David Price alone cost 30 million. The entire Oakland payroll last year was 80 million. Drew Pomeranz made more than anyone on Tampa last year. The larger teams have a level of flexibility other teams can only dream of. Heck, look at Boston fans when they grumble about how other teams don't spend money. They've lost all touch with the concept of a budget. A handful of teams are just playing with Monopoly money. Some teams have a lot of money but there's still a ceiling and when the well runs dry they need to figure out the fastest way back to contention. Like Seattle, who had the 10th highest payroll and still came up short despite vastly overachieving. Now their roster is older and they've got zero depth and an awful farm system. The remaining squads cannot possibly compete on the same level. And the smart ones don't try - they instead have to play a different game to become winners. This is the way baseball has structured the system. We shouldn't blame teams for being smart.

 

TLDR lol at rich teams for setting up a system that encourages rich teams to succeed then pikachu face when non rich teams try to figure out another way to compete.

The headline on teams tanking was written by Nick Carfado from the Globe...

 

Dave Dombrowski was grumbling about the winter meetings and imposing a free agent signing period etc... 

 

 

 

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For those saying how the Rays may contend by how they finished last year look at the teams they played post ASB. A litany of rebuilds with 3 games against NY (7-23,24,25), NY (8-14,15,16), Boston (8-17,18,19,24,25,26), 2 games with Atl, 3 games with Cle, middle of Sept 3 games with OAK, 4games with NY when NY had nothing left to play for. 20 games from about the middle of July to the end of the season the rest weren't against teams rebuilding.

 

Sad state of baseball when that could/would constitute a contender for a playoff spot.

 

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31 minutes ago, Low and Away said:

For those saying how the Rays may contend by how they finished last year look at the teams they played post ASB. A litany of rebuilds with 3 games against NY (7-23,24,25), NY (8-14,15,16), Boston (8-17,18,19,24,25,26), 2 games with Atl, 3 games with Cle, middle of Sept 3 games with OAK, 4games with NY when NY had nothing left to play for. 20 games from about the middle of July to the end of the season the rest weren't against teams rebuilding.

 

Sad state of baseball when that could/would constitute a contender for a playoff spot.

 

There are terrible teams to play every single year, going back to the beginning of baseball. Last year was no exception, and I strongly suspect next year will bring us more of the same.

 

They won 90 games last year. If you use Pythagorean models they 'should' have won anywhere from 88-97 games (depends which model you use). They were a legitimately good team last year. There's nothing remotely sad about that.

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