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2018-19 Off-Season and Hot Stove Thread


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3 hours ago, TribeFoo said:

There are definitely teams that just straight-up can't afford Harper or Machado, but it seems like it's the insistence on 8-10 year contracts that makes teams buckle and lose interest. I can't say I blame them. These contracts just don't end well and are more likely than not going to be an albatross for your franchise. Seems like shorter contracts at a higher AAV would be preferable to teams. It would also drive up yearly salaries depending on the player, which would seem to be what the union wants.

 

But how often do you get the chance to sign a franchise player at age 26? It's very rare that this happens. This isn't Pujols who was 30+ when he signed with the Angels. That was a huge mistake. Pujols at age 26 would have been worth that contract though.

 

Look at next year's loaded group of FA. Goldschmidt will be 32, Donaldson 34, Rendon 30, Abreu 33, K.Davis 32, Arenado 29, Ozuna 29, Castellanos 28, Bogaerts 27. Some of these guys are going to be looking for long contracts as well and are already closing in at 30. I'd rather sign Machado or Harper than consider giving some of these guys a (long) contract.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by Sine_cera
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Lol. If he leaves, he's a snake, traitor, ring-chaser, etc. If he stays, he's 'soft'.    

Close,  they're 2x dumber

Apologies if anyone already posted this but...    

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38 minutes ago, azeri98 said:

I wouldn't give a 26 year old a ten year deal, you mention those two deals, how about A Rod's last deal? How's is Stanton's deal going to look near the end?

 

Again im talking about deals made at prime. I absolutely wouldn’t hesitate to give Bryce ten years 350. Zero hesitation. And with record revenues a lot of teams have the money. 

 

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44 minutes ago, Sine_cera said:

 

But how often do you get the chance to sign a franchise player at age 26? It's very rare that this happens. This isn't Pujols who was 30+ when he signed with the Angels. That was a huge mistake. Pujols at age 26 would have been worth that contract though.

 

Look at next year's loaded group of FA. Goldschmidt will be 32, Donaldson 34, Rendon 30, Abreu 33, K.Davis 32, Arenado 29, Ozuna 29, Castellanos 28, Bogaerts 27. Some of these guys are going to be looking for long contracts as well and are already closing in at 30. I'd rather sign Machado or Harper than consider giving some of these guys a (long) contract.

 

Pujols was 26 in 1991 ;)

It really is true, this is the first batch of guys this young with so many prime years to go...it's amazing 2-to-3 teams are only in on them...in Jan!

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20 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

Again im talking about deals made at prime. I absolutely wouldn’t hesitate to give Bryce ten years 350. Zero hesitation. And with record revenues a lot of teams have the money. 

 

Yup and if only if the he could play 2B the Mets would make that offer. 😁

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19 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

Again im talking about deals made at prime. I absolutely wouldn’t hesitate to give Bryce ten years 350. Zero hesitation. And with record revenues a lot of teams have the money. 

 

I wouldn't but that's just my opinion , What players aged 33 and up have had years worth 35 million recently, I can't think of any other than Votto 2 years ago. Stanton signed his deal in his prime, i don't see it working out well in the final years, 

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13 minutes ago, ST. STEVEN said:

Pujols was 26 in 1991 ;)

It really is true, this is the first batch of guys this young with so many prime years to go...it's amazing 2-to-3 teams are only in on them...in Jan!

Honestly I cant believe teams who are thinking they are maybe making a run in 2020 arent in on these guys especially with the trend seeming to be people are not buying free agents, seems like a bit of a "buy low" because honestly I was thinking these guys would be 10 for $400 Million.  Lets go Pads!!!

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5 minutes ago, Low and Away said:

Has there ever been a 10 year contract that was good for a team?

Jeter 10-year 190 for Yanks in 2001 seems like a pretty good deal

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1 minute ago, duke of queens said:

Jeter, Helton, Tulo, Votto? Not sure your def of good but those are some that have been pretty good

Tulo is still getting paid on that 10 year contract and has been released once so would that be considered good?

Helton's last four years had 2.0 WAR total. 

Votto isn't at the end of the contract yet.

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20 minutes ago, azeri98 said:

I wouldn't but that's just my opinion , What players aged 33 and up have had years worth 35 million recently, I can't think of any other than Votto 2 years ago. Stanton signed his deal in his prime, i don't see it working out well in the final years, 

 

Sure, but every deal is front loaded in terms of production. This is a generally accepted fact with pretty much all long term contracts ever. Bryce Harper's MVP season is worth way more than a 35 Million AAV. Mike Trout's average season is worth more than a 35 AAV. You underpay at the front half and over pay on the back half. I think that's fair. 

 

15 minutes ago, Low and Away said:

Has there ever been a 10 year contract that was good for a team?

 

Again this sample is incredibly biased by the fact that players don't reach the open market at anywhere near an average age of 26 YO. If Arbitration was reduced, more players would hit the market earlier, and more 10-Year deals would work out. Our sample would at the very least represent these players.

 

Using deals that started at 31 to justify not paying someone at 26 doesn't make sense to me. A-Rod was a pretty ******** incredible player from 2000-2007, and certainly worth his first legacy contract. But people always point to the extra extension signed later into his career that covered him at 40. Unless Harper wants 15 Years, he's not going to 40 on this deal. 

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31 minutes ago, duke of queens said:

Jeter, Helton, Tulo, Votto? Not sure your def of good but those are some that have been pretty good

 

Tulo?  Hahahahaha.  And Jeter was a shell of his former self over the last few years of his contract.  These guys take up freaking roster space hampering teams because of it in their rocking chair years.

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The question is though has a 10 year contract ever worked out? I dispute A-Rod's first contract as it really set the Rangers back and even after trading him they still paid almost the half the balance that was left. The contract wasn't that great for Seattle either.

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Just now, Low and Away said:

The question is though has a 10 year contract ever worked out? I dispute A-Rod's first contract as it really set the Rangers back and even after trading him they still paid almost the half the balance that was left. The contract wasn't that great for Seattle either.

Define working out.  If a team can afford a player only playing all star caliber for 6 of those years is that good value?

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19 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

Sure, but every deal is front loaded in terms of production. This is a generally accepted fact with pretty much all long term contracts ever. Bryce Harper's MVP season is worth way more than a 35 Million AAV. Mike Trout's average season is worth more than a 35 AAV. You underpay at the front half and over pay on the back half. I think that's fair. 

 

 

Again this sample is incredibly biased by the fact that players don't reach the open market at anywhere near an average age of 26 YO. If Arbitration was reduced, more players would hit the market earlier, and more 10-Year deals would work out. Our sample would at the very least represent these players.

 

Using deals that started at 31 to justify not paying someone at 26 doesn't make sense to me. A-Rod was a pretty ******** incredible player from 2000-2007, and certainly worth his first legacy contract. But people always point to the extra extension signed later into his career that covered him at 40. Unless Harper wants 15 Years, he's not going to 40 on this deal. 

 

Not 1ry to justify or not justify it just wondering if there was a ten year contract that worked for a team.

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4 minutes ago, duke of queens said:

Define working out.  If a team can afford a player only playing all star caliber for 6 of those years is that good value?

This is a two part question to me.  What can teams actually afford? And how many bad years makes this worth it? 

 

As noted above,  it seems like there really should be more money available.  And I'd be willing to eat 2 or 3 rough years for what these guys can do over the next 6. 

 

Put me in the one in the hand camp 

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6 minutes ago, duke of queens said:

Define working out.  If a team can afford a player only playing all star caliber for 6 of those years is that good value?

 

Absolutely not.  You have 25 man rosters basically reduced to 24 man rosters.  So how would playing handicapped one man short for 4 years be good value?  Especially if they block good young players who could do better for the team.

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42 minutes ago, duke of queens said:

Jeter, Helton, Tulo, Votto? Not sure your def of good but those are some that have been pretty good

Votto's will end up being terrible, he's still got 5 years left. Tulo was let go with 2 years remaining and the 3 years previous to that were not worth 20 million. Jeter's last 4 years were nothing special, Helton from 2008-13 wasn't that good either, it's not worth signing a player to a 10 year deal it's actually really stupid and front offices have caught on to that, Throw in the Cano deal as well as another boat anchor

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