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2018-19 Off-Season and Hot Stove Thread


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2 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

Well catchers that are pretty awesome like Realmuto would have more value for handling the pitching staff too and not just the bat alone and because the majority of catchers suck making an excellent one a huge deal.  But yeah Goldy tops Segura by a mile.

i mean goldie put together an 8.7 war season before...and has averaged like 6 war over the last 5 years.

realmuto is the top player at a shallow position, but is his 3.5-4 WAR more of an upgrade over Alfaro's 1.2? so a 2.5-3 WAR gain.  goldie is replacing who...jose martinez?  so goldie 6 war replacing a 1.5 war.  4.5 gain.

 

its at least close but i still think the goldie upgrade was the best

 

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Lol. If he leaves, he's a snake, traitor, ring-chaser, etc. If he stays, he's 'soft'.    

Close,  they're 2x dumber

Apologies if anyone already posted this but...    

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6 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:

 

Because MLB GMs play in dynasty leagues, not redraft.  :)  Goldy's 31 and has one year left on his contract, Realmuto's 27 and has 2 years left.  Setting aside what each team gave up to get their guy for a moment, Goldschmidt would have to double Realmuto's WAR this season to say he was worth more as a commodity.  Goldy's fWAR last year was 5.1, JT's was 4.8.  If you want to use 3 year averages, Goldy's around 5.1 and JT's 4.1.  Assuming both perform at those levels for the duration of their deals, the Cards get 5.1 WAR and the Phillies get 8.2.

Of course the math's a little more complicated -- you have to account for the Phillies' loss of Alfaro and Sixto, the Cards' loss of Weaver, Kelly, and whoever else was involved...  But just eyeballing it, I think the Realmuto trade was better for Philadelphia than the Goldy trade was for St. Louis.

 

see post above, we are sort of thinking the same.  i wasnt thinking of year 2....so i guess if you include that the realmuto deal IS better.

 

but for this year i think Goldie makes the bigger difference for the team.  close though

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38 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

Well catchers that are pretty awesome like Realmuto would have more value for handling the pitching staff too and not just the bat alone and because the majority of catchers suck making an excellent one a huge deal.  But yeah Goldy tops Segura by a mile.

 

How does Goldy top Segura by a mile? From what aspect of the acquisition?

 

Overall value? Goldys more valuable but it isn’t by a mile. Segura has a 5.1, 3.0, and 3.8 WARs on FG last three seasons GoldyS 5.0, 5.2, and 5.1. Don’t think that’s unfair. Segura is an incredibly valuable hitter at an incredibly valuable position. Goldy is a better hitter but at a far less valuable position. You can also read this multiple ways, but Segura would be closer to a 4 WAR with 155 games the last two seasons. 

 

In terms of price? Phillies didn’t lose much at all. They lose the chance that JP Crawford turns it around and is a good-BA SS who still likely hits 10/10. A poor man’s Jorge Polanco. Price for Goldy was good too but was it as good? Or better? Not imo. 

 

And also in terms of dollars, you’re committing to Segura, but you’re risking that Goldy walks. There’s not a guarantee here whatsoever. I buy they can do it but no guarantees. 

 

People don’t give Segura his due respect. At SS, I cannot at all be confident in saying the Goldy Deal was much better. As a real life GM, I would view Segura and Goldy closer to evenly in the next three years, with perhaps a slight advantage to PG. 

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37 minutes ago, jfazz23 said:

i mean goldie put together an 8.7 war season before...and has averaged like 6 war over the last 5 years.

realmuto is the top player at a shallow position, but is his 3.5-4 WAR more of an upgrade over Alfaro's 1.2? so a 2.5-3 WAR gain.  goldie is replacing who...jose martinez?  so goldie 6 war replacing a 1.5 war.  4.5 gain.

 

its at least close but i still think the goldie upgrade was the best

 

With that logic, really the player who is being displaced is Jedd Gyorko as opposed to Jose Martinez, as there isn't really a scenario where Martinez would have been the everyday 1b over putting Carp there and having Gyorko on 3b. Splitting hairs, but Gyorko is closer to a 3 WAR player with everyday playing time, making the arguement of upgrade value negligible between Goldy and Realmuto.

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6 minutes ago, jbj said:

With that logic, really the player who is being displaced is Jedd Gyorko as opposed to Jose Martinez, as there isn't really a scenario where Martinez would have been the everyday 1b over putting Carp there and having Gyorko on 3b. Splitting hairs, but Gyorko is closer to a 3 WAR player with everyday playing time, making the arguement of upgrade value negligible between Goldy and Realmuto.

 

didnt know it would be gyorko...which makes this year very close id say.  but the additional year of jt prob makes the trade better unless sixto turns into a legit 1 or 2 pitcher.

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1 hour ago, jfazz23 said:

i mean goldie put together an 8.7 war season before...and has averaged like 6 war over the last 5 years.

realmuto is the top player at a shallow position, but is his 3.5-4 WAR more of an upgrade over Alfaro's 1.2? so a 2.5-3 WAR gain.  goldie is replacing who...jose martinez?  so goldie 6 war replacing a 1.5 war.  4.5 gain.

its at least close but i still think the goldie upgrade was the best

 

WAR is so an incomplete look at a player.  A great catcher brings out much more in his pitchers above framing skills. Their trust is his play calling and the confidence it gives them can't be measured by mere math.  How they work with him on off days regards pitching strategy.  How he knows and handles each personality to get the best out of each. WAR is so overrated.

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1 hour ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

WAR is so an incomplete look at a player.  A great catcher brings out much more in his pitchers above framing skills. Their trust is his play calling and the confidence it gives them can't be measured by mere math.  How they work with him on off days regards pitching strategy.  How he knows and handles each personality to get the best out of each. WAR is so overrated.

 

I mean whether or not it's overrated depends on who you're talking to. Many people have a vastly different view of WAR.

 

As far as an incomplete look at a player, I agree it is incomplete. But it is also more complete than any other metric. 

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10 minutes ago, taobball said:

I mean whether or not it's overrated depends on who you're talking to. Many people have a vastly different view of WAR.

It's a tool like Red Sox owner John Henry basically said.  But only one.  Though Bill James still works for the Sox they have gone to a more balanced 5and nearly 0/50 approach using "old fashioned" scouting reports etc just as much because as Henry said just using metrics wasn't doing the trick.  So two or three years ago they made the switch away from the "everything is all about the metrics" to this more balanced approach.  The flag will be raised at Fenway this April.

BTW the Sox seem to lean more to defensive sabermeterics but not so much the offensive ones as they used to.  Still use them of course but don't treat them as holy scripture any more.

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13 hours ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

It's a tool like Red Sox owner John Henry basically said.  But only one.  Though Bill James still works for the Sox they have gone to a more balanced 5and nearly 0/50 approach using "old fashioned" scouting reports etc just as much because as Henry said just using metrics wasn't doing the trick.  So two or three years ago they made the switch away from the "everything is all about the metrics" to this more balanced approach.  The flag will be raised at Fenway this April.

BTW the Sox seem to lean more to defensive sabermeterics but not so much the offensive ones as they used to.  Still use them of course but don't treat them as holy scripture any more.

If they switched from the "all metrics" strategy just two or three years ago, wouldn't most of the players responsible for the current raising of the flag have been drafted/signed under the old methodology? I feel like it might be too soon to brag about an approach that hasn't been confirmed to be better than it's predecessor. 

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13 hours ago, taobball said:

 

I mean whether or not it's overrated depends on who you're talking to. Many people have a vastly different view of WAR.

 

As far as an incomplete look at a player, I agree it is incomplete. But it is also more complete than any other metric. 

If its more complete than any other metric shouldn't we all agree that Harper isn't worth anything he is asking for. 

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1 hour ago, duke of queens said:

If its more complete than any other metric shouldn't we all agree that Harper isn't worth anything he is asking for. 

 

Based on his fWAR in his career I actually think I could (and have twice in this thread) argued the opposite. 

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25 minutes ago, kmoore1521 said:

Severino 4 years 40 Mil, similiar to the Nola deal very team friendly

 

A bit different though. I believe Nola's deal bought out two years of FA while Severino's buys out only one with an option.

 

Severino's deal really isn't even as team friendly as it seems, by comparison. It limits both side's risk. But for the Yankees, Severino would've been and arbitration player the next four years anyway. The only real risk he's taking is hitting the open market at 30 instead of 29, while insuring himself a lot more guaranteed wealth and insuring that he structures the deal to get money in case of a lockout in 2021.

 

Like i'm not saying it's not team friendly, but the open market is all that matters, and proximity to that open market. The Yankee's victory here isn't 5 years / 55, it's the 1 / 15 at the end that they can use to keep him from the open market if he's a stud. And for Severino, he's not turning down the ability to make 100+ Million. He doesn't have that ability to begin with, not for another four full seasons. He's just delaying himself getting to the open market. 

 

Market proximity is the most valuable thing a baseball player can have. Nola and Severino were pitchers whose market proximity was 3-4 years, so they took safe contracts to make sure their bodies didn't fail them before they had a chance at a payday. Severino in particular didn't hurt his chances for a payday too much, if he can stay healthy and performing. Just one lost year. 

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I wouldn't be signing longer than the current CBA if I was a player, or an agent advising players.  Severino's first year as a free agent and he's basically seen as past his prime - helluva system.  Vlad Jr will be kept in minors because of "service time" - Jays admitting they want to flat out steal a prime year from Guerrero for a relative pittance - helluva system. 

Bring in a RFA system and have players become RFA's 5 years after they're drafted or at age 25yo which ever comes first.  For this "give" by ownership, limit contract length to five years. 

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11 minutes ago, Baseball Jonze said:

I wouldn't be signing longer than the current CBA if I was a player, or an agent advising players.  Severino's first year as a free agent and he's basically seen as past his prime - helluva system.  Vlad Jr will be kept in minors because of "service time" - Jays admitting they want to flat out steal a prime year from Guerrero for a relative pittance - helluva system. 

 

 

:wub:

 

12 minutes ago, Baseball Jonze said:

 

Bring in a RFA system and have players become RFA's 5 years after they're drafted or at age 25yo which ever comes first.  For this "give" by ownership, limit contract length to five years. 

 

I like RFA systems. I have one proposal similar, however without RFAs. I believe similar actually to Hockey, but with Arbitration instead of RFA. Teams get three years min same as now. Players are then arbitration eligible until a certain age (say, 27 or 28) at which point they become UFAs. 

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34 minutes ago, taobball said:

I like RFA systems. I have one proposal similar, however without RFAs. I believe similar actually to Hockey, but with Arbitration instead of RFA. Teams get three years min same as now. Players are then arbitration eligible until a certain age (say, 27 or 28) at which point they become UFAs. 

 

Fangraphs has a great series on fixing the arbitration system.  The most recent post proposes an RFA-ish system that sounds good on paper to me.

Some commenters do note some problems with RFA as it exists in the NHL, and speculate that it could lead to some smaller market teams getting pushed aside while the richer teams splash the pot with offer sheets that the smaller market teams can't afford.  This happens already with MLB FAs, but having it occur earlier in the player's career forces teams to make very big bets with just a few years of data to go on.  I'm all for players getting a much larger share of the pie earlier in their career and not having to wait 6-7 years for a big payday, but I do wonder if this kind of RFA setup would have to be paired with a salary floor and possibly a lower tax threshold and/or a hard salary cap to avoid a league made up mostly of teams with only a puncher's chance of making a playoff run once a decade or so.

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1 minute ago, tonycpsu said:

 

Fangraphs has a great series on fixing the arbitration system.  The most recent post proposes an RFA-ish system that sounds good on paper to me.

Some commenters do note some problems with RFA as it exists in the NHL, and speculate that it could lead to some smaller market teams getting pushed aside while the richer teams splash the pot with offer sheets that the smaller market teams can't afford.  This happens already with MLB FAs, but having it occur earlier in the player's career forces teams to make very big bets with just a few years of data to go on.  I'm all for players getting a much larger share of the pie earlier in their career and not having to wait 6-7 years for a big payday, but I do wonder if this kind of RFA setup would have to be paired with a salary floor and possibly a lower tax threshold and/or a hard salary cap to avoid a league made up mostly of teams with only a puncher's chance of making a playoff run once a decade or so.

 

Do you know much about RFA in the NHL? Because my roommate (a hockey guy) just explained that to me the other day and RFA in the NHL is an utter and complete farce. 

 

I think the lack of cap is why I'm trying to convert RFA systems to Arbitration. Because I do actually like arbitration. I like it a lot. I think the system could be a lot better, but ultimately it is a great way to get a good amount of money with team control / no market. It's just that 6 years is WAYYYYY too much.

 

The problem with 6 years, at least IMO, is that it is set up to protect teams against the HIGHEST possible outcome-- i.e. preventing Mike Trout from hitting the market at 23-24 Years Old and signing an actual 500 Million dollar contract. But even a COLLEGE player, who has to spend 3 years prior to joining the draft, is 21 Years Old typically when he's playing in A-A+ Ball, which means he could go from Draft to MLB and not make the open market before 27-28. That's nonsense. As a Cubs fan, it's nice to just own Kris Bryant's entire prime, but as someone who ROCKETED through the minors, and was immediately successful, the fact that he's not a FA until I believe 30 is kind've ridiculous. 

 

That's why I think I've been bringing Hockey in-- as messed up as the Hockey system is, I like the flat age being determinate on when you mature to being a UFA. I think you can still give teams a "Rookie Contract" when they first reach the majors, so that Whit Merrifield doesn't spend three weeks on the Royals and then hit Free Agency in any theoretically situation, but other than that I like a flat age with arbitration I think the best. 

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7 hours ago, Baseball Jonze said:

Vlad Jr will be kept in minors because of "service time" - Jays admitting they want to flat out steal a prime year from Guerrero for a relative pittance - helluva system.

The system was set up to get that extra year.  No stealing is being done.

 

6 hours ago, XxxOilOverloadxxX said:

Did anyone hear that Bauer is willing to go on one year deals when he hits FA. I guess he wants to gamble on himself with high AAV.

Yes he has said that from some time now.  Bauer is saying pay me what I deserve year to year.  If I'm good, I get a good contract.  If I'm bad or get injured, I get a bad contract.  I admire his guts and confidence but don't see any other player doing it.  I know if I was a MLB player I'd be scared to gamble like that but like I say I admire his putting it on the line each year.  And you can never say he took the long contract then sat back and relaxed for the rest of his years on baseball.  (Ellsbury, I'm looking at you).

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8 hours ago, taobball said:

 

Based on his fWAR in his career I actually think I could (and have twice in this thread) argued the opposite. 

Not sure what is a better calculation f or r but I guess f makes your argument a little stronger. But I dont blame teams for not giving him 30 mil per for 1 mvp caliber season out of 7. 

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