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2018-19 Off-Season and Hot Stove Thread


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1 hour ago, XxxOilOverloadxxX said:

I'm still holding out hope for Phillies. I don't see Giants going 300 plus to do this. 

At this point, all they really have is money.  They'll never get a player of this caliber via trade with their prospects, and it has been a while since they have developed any home grown OF talent.  If they want fans to continue filling up that park, they'll need to trot out more than their current crop of outfielders. 

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Lol. If he leaves, he's a snake, traitor, ring-chaser, etc. If he stays, he's 'soft'.    

Close,  they're 2x dumber

Apologies if anyone already posted this but...    

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14 minutes ago, ToO_BaD said:

At this point, all they really have is money.  They'll never get a player of this caliber via trade with their prospects, and it has been a while since they have developed any home grown OF talent.  If they want fans to continue filling up that park, they'll need to trot out more than their current crop of outfielders. 

They don't need fans in the stands.  They pay diddly into the revenue stream of modern teams.  They need to keep up the mega-TV revenues stream.

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Well all those people picking up Nick Goodrum in super deep leagues did so for naught.

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Josh Harrison is signing a one-year deal to become the Tigers' second baseman, according to The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal.

Seems like a smart move for Harrison; he obviously wasn't going to make a lot of money either way, so he might as well chase the playing time with the Tigers rather than serve as a utilityman on a contender. Harrison was an All-Star in 2017 and is just 31, but there was little demand for his services after he hit .250/.290/.363 in 344 at-bats last season. He'll displace Niko Goodrum in Detroit. That might not be an upgrade offensively, but it's a clear one defensively, and the team still should have ample opportunity to get Goodrum at-bats.

Source: Ken Rosenthal on Twitter                            Feb 20, 2019, 3:41 PM

 

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11 hours ago, NoHablaIngles said:

I will be so bummed if Harper goes to SF.

That park will not do him any favours.

Philly please!

heck for the matter, NYY please!

 

 

Not just the park but that lineup is absolute trash.

 

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On 2/20/2019 at 12:54 AM, The Big Bat Theory said:

They can't re-sign Sale or Xander if they remotely go after Kimbrel.  I'd rather have Sale any day over a declining Kimbrel.

I don't buy this at all. 

Sale is on the books for 15 this year, Bogaerts 12. They will probably make what, 33 and 23? So an increase of 29 MM? ... Porcello is in the final year of a 21 MM deal, let him walk. Then the Pablo buyout drops from 18 in 2019 to 5 in 2020 before coming off, saving another 13 MM, that's 34 MM savings there, 5 to spare.... Mookie is already getting 20 this year so his raise on an annual basis won't be much when he gets it. Rusney is off the books in 2 years,  14 MM. You got guys like JBJ making 8.5 you can say goodbye to. Moreland 6.5, Pearce around the same both 1 year deals.

Now this all depends what Kimbrel wants, if he is willing to take somewhere between Andrew Miller 11 MM money and Aroldis Chapman 17 MM money it can work... If he's looking to break bank and match or top Chapman, no thanks. 

If the Sox don't sign Kimbrel, I will be FURIOUS. They have completely ignored their bullpen and have a collection of mid relief at best guys. To me, regardless of reports, I think they are ignoring bullpen because they are putting their eggs all in Kimbrel and will make it work around him. If DD actually assembled and ignored this bullpen with the plan of letting Kimbrel walk all along, I'll lose my god damn mind.

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Sounds like Atlanta could annouce agreeing to Kimbrel deal at any moment. The Red Sox have too many players they need to figure out how to keep. This is why I can't see them giving Sale more than 4-5 years years. Unless they go with 6-7 for less money. I think some Sox fans are going to be very upset by this time next year if not sooner. Porcello will not wear the Boston uniform in 2020.

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22 minutes ago, StevieStats said:

I don't buy this at all. 

 

Thank you. I didn't want to go out of my way to type this up, but I was BLOWN AWAY at the suggestion that the Red Sox signing Kimbrel would in any facet lock them up from retaining their own players. That is top notch team selling you on a bunch of payroll BS. We're talking about a team who won the WS last year paying Hanley and Pablo 40 Million to not play for them, Rusney 11 Million to stay in the minors, and Price and Porcello a total of 51 Million for an average of what? A 3.93 ERA over the season about? (I just averaged 3.58 and 4.28 lazily, didn't use any weights) and two key games when it matters? 

 

They paid 102 Million for that s--- last year: a whole bunch of nothing, and two key David Price games when it mattered. You're really trying to sell me on the rub that signing Kimbrel to a record setting 17.5 Million AAV is going to handicap THE BOSTON RED SOX? A team that paid both PABLO SANDOVAL and HANLEY RAMIREZ more last year? 

 

Puh-lease. 

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4 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

Thank you. I didn't want to go out of my way to type this up, but I was BLOWN AWAY at the suggestion that the Red Sox signing Kimbrel would in any facet lock them up from retaining their own players. That is top notch team selling you on a bunch of payroll BS. We're talking about a team who won the WS last year paying Hanley and Pablo 40 Million to not play for them, Rusney 11 Million to stay in the minors, and Price and Porcello a total of 51 Million for an average of what? A 3.93 ERA over the season about? (I just averaged 3.58 and 4.28 lazily, didn't use any weights) and two key games when it matters? 

 

They paid 102 Million for that s--- last year: a whole bunch of nothing, and two key David Price games when it mattered. You're really trying to sell me on the rub that signing Kimbrel to a record setting 17.5 Million AAV is going to handicap THE BOSTON RED SOX? A team that paid both PABLO SANDOVAL and HANLEY RAMIREZ more last year? 

 

Puh-lease. 

Cubs are outta money too ;)

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5 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

Thank you. I didn't want to go out of my way to type this up, but I was BLOWN AWAY at the suggestion that the Red Sox signing Kimbrel would in any facet lock them up from retaining their own players. That is top notch team selling you on a bunch of payroll BS. We're talking about a team who won the WS last year paying Hanley and Pablo 40 Million to not play for them, Rusney 11 Million to stay in the minors, and Price and Porcello a total of 51 Million for an average of what? A 3.93 ERA over the season about? (I just averaged 3.58 and 4.28 lazily, didn't use any weights) and two key games when it matters? 

 

They paid 102 Million for that s--- last year: a whole bunch of nothing, and two key David Price games when it mattered. You're really trying to sell me on the rub that signing Kimbrel to a record setting 17.5 Million AAV is going to handicap THE BOSTON RED SOX.

 

Puh-lease. 

Kimbrel would cost more than 17.5 AAV if they are over both sets of luxury tax. Its not a matter of can't they. It a matter of that acquiring Kimbrel costs more than other teams.

I believe the Red Sox have blown past only the initial luxury tax. Not the new rules that had additional penalty after a certain number. 

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1 minute ago, ST. STEVEN said:

Cubs are outta money too ;)

 

Ricketts enjoys his leash. 

 

I don't talk about it much, but the longer this offseason goes, the more frustrated I am that we don't have and didn't make any of the right decisions to get Bryce Harper. This should've been an easy way to land a generational player younger than Kris Bryant. *shrugs*. 

 

1 minute ago, Slatykamora said:

Kimbrel would cost more than 17.5 AAV if they are over both sets of luxury tax. Its not a matter of can't they. It a matter of that acquiring Kimbrel costs more than other teams.

I believe the Red Sox have blown past only the initial luxury tax. Not the new rules that had additional penalty after a certain number. 

 

I agree, and understand. Still don't think the word "afford" should be in the dictionary of this conversation.  I believe the article I read said they'd pay 9 Million in Tax in the last 12 Million of Salary of 17.5, so it'd be around 26.5 for 17.5. Which is why I added the allocation comment. I don't think it is the right allocation with where they are in relationship to Cap or the proper investment. But would it hamper them from signing Xander and Mookie? Only if they needed a different public excuse. 

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7 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

Ricketts enjoys his leash. 

 

I don't talk about it much, but the longer this offseason goes, the more frustrated I am that we don't have and didn't make any of the right decisions to get Bryce Harper. This should've been an easy way to land a generational player younger than Kris Bryant. *shrugs*. 

 

 

I agree, and understand. Still don't think the word "afford" should be in the dictionary of this conversation.  I believe the article I read said they'd pay 9 Million in Tax in the last 12 Million of Salary of 17.5, so it'd be around 26.5 for 17.5. Which is why I added the allocation comment. I don't think it is the right allocation with where they are in relationship to Cap or the proper investment. But would it hamper them from signing Xander and Mookie? Only if they needed a different public excuse. 

Agree. Afford isn't the word. Mookie is going to want a mega deal. From a negotiation standpoint it might be better to NOT be close to the luxury tax at the start. So what Mookie wants and what the Red Sox want don't diverge because of additional penalties.

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2 minutes ago, Slatykamora said:

Agree. Afford isn't the word. Mookie is going to want a mega deal. From a negotiation standpoint it might be better to NOT be close to the luxury tax at the start. So what Mookie wants and what the Red Sox want don't diverge because of additional penalties.

 

Agreed, but for a final point Mookie still has two full years to go to reach the market for that mega deal unless he signs an extension first. And will be by no means an older FA, actually still relatively younger, but 28 as opposed to the 26 we see Harper and Machado now. There's no good reason to believe he doesn't get there, but he has roughly 700 days of variables to go. 

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The Red Sox are way over the luxury tax in all regards and their farm system is bare and won't get filled unless they stop the money madness some.  So, again, no way are they paying Kimbrel in some 6 year mega-contract he wants since they KNOW how he is declining.  His shelf life is NOT good and everyone in the organization knows it.  Six years is ludicrous for him.  Again there have been NO rumors about serious negotiations with Kimbrel from any team. His demands were insane.  Unless he comes down to earth he will be sitting out the season.

Mookie will probably want the biggest contract of all time and will probably get it from someone.  Sale will not be cheap by any stretch of the imagination.  Even Xander will cost them a ton and a half.  If they are going to lose one of those three they are certainly not going to lose two by re-signing Kimbrel for a zillion dollars.  And you all were forgetting that the Sox have to sweeten the pot to keep JD next season since he has a player's option to walk and re-become a FA.

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42 minutes ago, motown magic said:

Sounds like Atlanta could annouce agreeing to Kimbrel deal at any moment. The Red Sox have too many players they need to figure out how to keep. This is why I can't see them giving Sale more than 4-5 years years. Unless they go with 6-7 for less money. I think some Sox fans are going to be very upset by this time next year if not sooner. Porcello will not wear the Boston uniform in 2020.

Source?

I really do not get the logic of Atlanta signing him at all. They just cleansed their books, now they go pay big money for a closer when they already have a solid bullpen? Makes zero sense.

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34 minutes ago, taobball said:

To be clear, I'm not saying Kimbrel is the right ALLOCATION. That's a different argument. But Kimbrel's kind've money isn't going to handicap Boston whatsoever. 

 

35 minutes ago, ST. STEVEN said:

Cubs are outta money too ;)

 

i dont buy the talk from fans that owners are somehow colluding or lying about their finances.  i realize because of cable deals they are making much more money than they were 15 years ago, but their expenses probably also have gone up.

 

i mean, machado just got 300 million and hes had 1 year with an OPS over 900. and corbin had 1 big year and got 6 years 23 mil per...its the fringe players like moosetacos who arent getting 5 year deals anymore...and i think a lot of that is not wanting to sign players after 30 because of the lack of roids/amphetamines.  

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5 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

The Red Sox are way over the luxury tax in all regards and their farm system is bare and won't get filled unless they stop the money madness some.  So, again, no way are they paying Kimbrel in some 6 year mega-contract he wants since they KNOW how he is declining.  His shelf life is NOT good and everyone in the organization knows it.  Six years is ludicrous for him.  Again there have been NO rumors about serious negotiations with Kimbrel from any team. His demands were insane.  Unless he comes down to earth he will be sitting out the season.

Mookie will probably want the biggest contract of all time and will probably get it from someone.  Sale will not be cheap by any stretch of the imagination.  Even Xander will cost them a ton and a half.  If they are going to lose one of those three they are certainly not going to lose two by re-signing Kimbrel for a zillion dollars.  And you all were forgetting that the Sox have to sweeten the pot to keep JD next season since he has a player's option to walk and re-become a FA.

 

I'm not forgetting JDM. He alone is probably the most difficult and variable price for the Red Sox. I don't think "sweeten the pot" is even fair. JDM's probably market testing next year I would think if he does anything close to what he did this year. Unless the Red Sox restructure+extend he would be a fool not to. 

 

9 minutes ago, motown magic said:

Don’t forget jbj 

 

If your system can't develop a glove in 6 years you need to evaluate your scouts. 

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16 minutes ago, jfazz23 said:

 

 

i dont buy the talk from fans that owners are somehow colluding or lying about their finances.  i realize because of cable deals they are making much more money than they were 15 years ago, but their expenses probably also have gone up.

 

i mean, machado just got 300 million and hes had 1 year with an OPS over 900. and corbin had 1 big year and got 6 years 23 mil per...its the fringe players like moosetacos who arent getting 5 year deals anymore...and i think a lot of that is not wanting to sign players after 30 because of the lack of roids/amphetamines.  

 

Which teams? 

 

Like... the Pirates? Who have a reported 258M Revenue from 2017 and an 86M Payroll in 2018?

The Pirates... whose greatest ALL-TIME Free Agent expenditure is 3 Years, 39 Million. 

Whose Greatest ALL-TIME FA Contract that was actually fulfilled is 2 Years, 17 Million. 

Let the Franchise Player walk with minimal payroll? 

 

And it's not just the pirates. Travis Sawchik just happened to go on a rant about it the other day. 

 

Another fun one: the Athletics, White Sox, and Rays would not have a top 5 payroll if they signed someone to a 10 Yr / 1 Billion contract. 

 

Don't get me wrong-- the reason you run a business is to get a profit. The Owners are in it for one reason and if they couldn't do that we probably wouldn't be able to have a sport, most likely.

 

But when we talk about "Lying"... they aren't "Lying," they're just setting their own budgets. It's that simple. We have no more money in our Payroll Operations Budget so we cannot afford anymore players. But they choose what to set that budget at, and almost universally everybody could afford more. They just try to make the most money while running a team as well, and different owners have different ideas of what that means. 

 

Teams definitely use contracts as scapegoats. That's not really even lying either. I understand it-- it sucks to make a huge, terrible investment. But that still doesn't mean you couldn't suffer the loss, raise the budget, field a better team, and still make a profit, albeit a lesser profit.

 

Maybe you still think I'm off-base, but I agree with you to an extent on the word "lying." It is just a business. And a business is supposed to turn a profit. And they all care about the profit more than the team. And they all want the profit to be big. And there are varying degrees of how much they care about profit v. success, but ultimately on some level it is always about the profit, and never about "fair payroll." That's why CBA/Union has to exist in the first place. 

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1 minute ago, XxxOilOverloadxxX said:

Nationals ownership came out and said they haven't heard from Harper or Boras in months and have moved on.

Its Phillies against themselves

 

Come on Theo, sweep in and make my month :rolleyes:

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11 minutes ago, XxxOilOverloadxxX said:

Nationals ownership came out and said they haven't heard from Harper or Boras in months and have moved on.

Its Phillies against themselves

 

This entire process for the past month has felt like the Phillies playing Wipeout, with each obstacle on the course being a new "rumor" that Boras is throwing out about other teams. 

 

Seriously, none of the teams left "in the running" make very much sense. The Giants all but came out and said they don't want to go long term, and on top of that the team is terrible. The Nationals seem to have bailed a while ago, and spent quite a bit on Corbin to reaffirm that notion. The Padres dropped 300 million on Machado- do we really think they're going to spend another 350 in the same offseason? I guess it's possible, but after paying Hosmer last year, it doesn't seem likely. The White Sox... have they ever actually been serious about Bryce or Machado? Or were they just "checking in" like every other team in the league? 

 

Obviously I'm not in on these meetings or have any insider information on what other teams are discussing, but so much of this process has felt like a sham. Good for Boras I guess if it gets Bryce the extra money (it should... I've been clamoring for the Phillies to pay the man whatever it takes to bring him in), but man this offseason just has felt bad for baseball all around. 

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On 2/20/2019 at 2:43 PM, ToO_BaD said:

At this point, all they really have is money.  They'll never get a player of this caliber via trade with their prospects, and it has been a while since they have developed any home grown OF talent. 

 

If they want fans to continue filling up that park, they'll need to trot out more than their current crop of outfielders.

Totally agree with the first part.

 

Disagree with the second part. Fans (or just people who happen to have tickets) will show up to ATT *coughOraclecough* even with a lousy team. There's a lot more to do there than watch a baseball game. Maybe it'll hurt ownership's pockets if they suck for the next decade, but I dont think signing Harper would be that big of difference make profit-wise for the next couple years.

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