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Franmil Reyes 2019 Outlook


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12 minutes ago, exaulz said:

 

 Yeah, either way, the point is to just to have both to see how the PT shakes out and get full time ABs.

In our perfect world, we ought to own Franmil, Renfroe, Frenchy & Margot and see .... how the PT shakes and rolls. 

Edited by shakestreet
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I seem to have stumbled into the Baseball Parks thread.  I'll see my way out and look for the Franmil thread.

Will he end the year with more homers than RBI's?

What's with all the hype around this guy? He his ranked over 500 on Yahoo 

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It's not looking good.  If he doesn't start producing then he'll be sent down to the minors to get some at bats.  They aren't going to let him sit the bench.  He needs at bats to develop and he isn't going to get them the way Renfroe is hitting. 

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Best thing about the HR was he pulled it. Everything he has hit has been CF, he's only pulled 25%, meanwhile 60% to CF... it's possible his timing has been off, which is common with guys that implement leg kicks.

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On 4/7/2019 at 10:19 AM, shakestreet said:

In our perfect world, we ought to own Franmil, Renfroe, Frenchy & Margot and see .... how the PT shakes and rolls. 

 

I hope this was a joke.  Rostering 4 guys with the likelihood of 1 of them being relevant seems like a terrible plan. 

Franmil has upside that might be appealing but Renfroe is the only moderately interesting guy in my opinion.  

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56 minutes ago, tsh00k said:

 

I hope this was a joke.  Rostering 4 guys with the likelihood of 1 of them being relevant seems like a terrible plan. 

Franmil has upside that might be appealing but Renfroe is the only moderately interesting guy in my opinion.  

He’s golden in NL-only leagues.

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fwiw

Bobby Sylvester

@bobbyfantasypro
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Franmil Reyes is batting .130 with a .304 SLG. IE: like a pitcher. Baseball Savant's expected statistics derived from quality of contact suggest that Reyes has been the single most unlucky hitter in baseball and should be hitting .334 with a .730 slugging (IE: better than Trout)
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21 hours ago, Golden Spikes said:

fwiw

Bobby Sylvester

@bobbyfantasypro
Follow Follow @bobbyfantasypro

Franmil Reyes is batting .130 with a .304 SLG. IE: like a pitcher. Baseball Savant's expected statistics derived from quality of contact suggest that Reyes has been the single most unlucky hitter in baseball and should be hitting .334 with a .730 slugging (IE: better than Trout)

Just goes to show you a lot of these metrics are crap.  Either that or Franmil's mom runs Baseball Savant.

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14 hours ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

Just goes to show you a lot of these metrics are crap.  Either that or Franmil's mom runs Baseball Savant.

 

Or you don't understand that players can smoke the ball directly at fielders for outs. His mom must have helped him hit the ball out last night, bless her.

 

He's carrying a .125babip right now and he carried a .300+ babip throughout his milb career and last year in the bigs. His contact rates are up, swinging strike is down a lot, he's lacing everything. I don't understand how people can post so much about fantasy baseball and not realize baseball has a very large luck factor and in limited sample sizes players can have terrible luck and hit into outs when they're smoking the ball. Look at all the underlying stats, baseball savant loves him for a reason. Look at what he did last year. But yes, Franmil sucks and is definitely going to carry a .125babip all season long.

Edited by KrunK
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I think Franmil is good and all, but the issue here is at bats, not whether he can hit home runs and be productive. I dropped him simply because Renfroe is taking too much of his playing time. If you can afford to hold him as a bench player, so be it. Many people don't have that luxury right now.

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22 minutes ago, hangin n wangin said:

I think Franmil is good and all, but the issue here is at bats, not whether he can hit home runs and be productive. I dropped him simply because Renfroe is taking too much of his playing time. If you can afford to hold him as a bench player, so be it. Many people don't have that luxury right now.

 

He's also getting pulled early for defensive reasons when the Padres have the lead. That's going to eat into his at-bats.

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11 minutes ago, Magoo said:

Still had 3 ABs. 

 

Exactly.  Averaging 3 ABs is a problem.  He is averaging ~2.4 ABs (including walks) over his last 7 games and a very similar number YTD.  Those ABs have me holding off in a 10 team, 5 OF league (or rather picking up Winker instead).  I'll be watching him closely.

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16 hours ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

Just goes to show you a lot of these metrics are crap.  Either that or Franmil's mom runs Baseball Savant.

 

Or, it means just what it says it means, that he's been unlucky.

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Yep, I'd have to see him lose significant playing time for an extended amount of time before I considered dropping him in my 15-teamer. His raw power is top-5 in the game... those guys don't grow on trees. 

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3 hours ago, KrunK said:

 

Or you don't understand that players can smoke the ball directly at fielders for outs. His mom must have helped him hit the ball out last night, bless her.

 

He's carrying a .125babip right now and he carried a .300+ babip throughout his milb career and last year in the bigs. His contact rates are up, swinging strike is down a lot, he's lacing everything. I don't understand how people can post so much about fantasy baseball and not realize baseball has a very large luck factor and in limited sample sizes players can have terrible luck and hit into outs when they're smoking the ball. Look at all the underlying stats, baseball savant loves him for a reason. Look at what he did last year. But yes, Franmil sucks and is definitely going to carry a .125babip all season long.

Won't the hard hit rate normalize, or regress to the mean, as well throughout the year?  So the BABIP won't necessarily improve because the hard hit rate will normalize as well.  So rather than a hard hit rate simultaneously occurring with an unlucky BABIP  signaling "buy", couldn't we argue the two occurring in tandem is a bad sign, not a good sign?

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Just now, AJdude said:

Won't the hard hit rate normalize, or regress to the mean, as well throughout the year?  So the BABIP won't necessarily improve because the hard hit rate will normalize as well.  So rather than a hard hit rate simultaneously occurring with an unlucky BABIP  signaling "buy", couldn't we argue the two occurring in tandem is a bad sign, not a good sign?

 

No. The BABIP is going to normalize. He may end up carrying a lower BABIP this year than he typically would, but it is most definitely not going to sit at .125 all season. 

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4 hours ago, AJdude said:

Won't the hard hit rate normalize, or regress to the mean, as well throughout the year?  So the BABIP won't necessarily improve because the hard hit rate will normalize as well.  So rather than a hard hit rate simultaneously occurring with an unlucky BABIP  signaling "buy", couldn't we argue the two occurring in tandem is a bad sign, not a good sign?

Nope. His hard hit rate last year was 47.5% (current at 46% now), so it will likely hover in the upper 40s which is elite territory. The babip will 100% improve as there is 0 chance it’s anywhere near what it’s currently at.

Hard hit balls don’t guarantee a high babip (as he has shown) the same way that softly hit balls don’t guarantee a low babip either. You could slap hit soft singles all day and carry a high babip if you were lucky enough to do it consistently, theoretically.

So even if his hard hit rate normalizes (which it has, but is still very good) his babip is surely going to come up and come up a lot and the hits will fall. He’s over 200 points lower than he was last year, massive small sample size anomaly. An increase in hard hit rate is never going to be a bad sign unless they somehow change their swing so that they’re smoking groundballs and not getting anything in the air. Then it doesn’t indicate future success if they’re grounding out to short every AB.  

Edited by KrunK
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