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Byron Buxton 2019 Outlook


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Buxton is like a Thursday night with the boys. You know you got work in the morning, you tell yourself eh I'll just have a pint, quick snack... 3 hours later you're 2 shots and 5 pints deep throw

Looks hot now....   then you draft him.     

https://bringmethenews.com/minnesota-sports/byron-buxton-says-he-fixed-his-swing-by-himself    

Kid has been solid for the entire season.

 

Grabbed him in 3 leagues in late rounds and I'm satisfied with his production.

 

2B machine and solid ratio stats with 8 SB's. Have absolutely no trouble rostering him. Maybe a 40 2B - 30 SB season could be within reach and I'm all in.

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On 5/11/2019 at 9:08 AM, motown magic said:

I thought I would bring this clown back up since the tread has cooled off . Speaking of cooled off in case you haven't been paying attention. The last 7 games

22 AB

5 Hits

1 sb

3 bb

1 rbi

4 k's

Batting average now down to .248

OBP down to .305

Still sitting on 15 doubles

Still sitting on 1 hr

Yes he has 8 steals but 4 came the first 10-12 games. Plus he's been caught 2 times. Still 75%

Since you posted this, Bryon has

22 AB  9 Hits 3 2b's 2 Hr 7rbi and 2BB with a .270 Ave.  He has struck out 5 times. But he does not look lost at the plate like he has in other years. I think he will continue to improve as the year goes on. His early struggles in the Majors are remind me of how Torii Hunter's career started with the Twins. 

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1 hour ago, Jyeatbvg said:

Thinking of trading for this guy in a keeper league but not convinced the breakout is real. Can anyone add any insight on what the underlying metrics say?

 

There's plenty of posters in this forum who can do a deeper dive than I, but here are some surface level observations via Fangraphs:

                    2017             2018              2019       

OBP:           .314              .183               .338 

SLG:           .413              .200               .519

ISO:            .160              .044               .237 

BB%:            7.4%            3.2%              7.0%

K%:              29.4%          29.8%             23.2%

GB%:           38.7%          43.3%             26.5%   

LD%:            23.2%          23.3%             21.4%

FB%:            38.0%          33.3%             52.0%

Soft%:          18.2%          17.5%             18.4%

Med%:          54.2%          52.4%             46.9%

Hard%:         27.6%          30.2%              34.7%

O-Swing%:   31.1%          39.4%              36.1%

Z-Swing%:    67.0%          73.0%              77.3%  

O-Contact%: 51.1%          58.8%              54.3% 

Z-Contact%:  82.1%          82.9%              86.9% 

 

Lots of career bests in some of the key underlying metrics here...

Most notably, he's cutting the Ks, he's swinging more often and making more contact on pitches in the zone, and he's showing more XBH power than ever before (likely courtesy of a slightly higher hard% and exchanging a lot of GB for FB).

Edited by mjb03003
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1 hour ago, Jyeatbvg said:

Thinking of trading for this guy in a keeper league but not convinced the breakout is real. Can anyone add any insight on what the underlying metrics say?

Stats are great, but also his presence at the plate is straight confidence.  All year he's been making hard contact at least once per game, and lately, those hits are starting to go over the outfield fences.  He's completely capable of going .280 / 20 HR / 40 SB's.  It was expected of him in previous seasons.  He's just a late bloomer.  If I didn't own him, I'd be sending offers to pry him from his owner before it's too late.  There are maybe 10 guys in MLB that are even capable of putting together the type of stat line Buxton should end up with.  It's like having a steals specialist that could end up with anywhere from 10-25 HR's.  Nick Senzel / Mondesi / Tim Anderson / Jose Ramirez / Altuve are his company.

 

Runs and RBI's are the 2 categories that suffer with him batting 9th.  That's the one thing stopping him from being a big deal in fantasy.  Everything else he's excelling.  If/when he moves up in the line up, his value will rise very, very quickly and it'll be much more difficult to obtain him via trade.  The rest of the lineup is mashing, with Sano now back, so a move to the 1-5 hole would create a boom for his fantasy value.

Edited by HulkSmash
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7 minutes ago, HulkSmash said:

Stats are great, but also his presence at the plate is straight confidence.  All year he's been making hard contact at least once per game, and lately, those hits are starting to go over the outfield fences.  He's completely capable of going .280 / 20 HR / 40 SB's.  It was expected of him in previous seasons.  He's just a late bloomer.  If I didn't own him, I'd be sending offers to pry him from his owner before it's too late.  There are maybe 10 guys in MLB that are even capable of putting together the type of stat line Buxton should end up with.  It's like having a steals specialist that could end up with anywhere from 10-25 HR's.  Nick Senzel / Mondesi / Tim Anderson / Jose Ramirez / Altuve are his company.

 

Runs and RBI's are the 2 categories that suffer with him batting 9th.  That's the one thing stopping him from being a big deal in fantasy.  Everything else he's excelling.  If/when he moves up in the line up, his value will rise very, very quickly and it'll be much more difficult to obtain him via trade.  The rest of the lineup is mashing, with Sano now back, so a move to the 1-5 hole would create a boom for his fantasy value.

 

As an owner, it would take a decent offer to part with the upside of him moving to the top of the lineup with his current SB+HR production. I have to think it would happen soon. He's been better than Kepler. 

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1 hour ago, HulkSmash said:

Stats are great, but also his presence at the plate is straight confidence.  All year he's been making hard contact at least once per game, and lately, those hits are starting to go over the outfield fences.  He's completely capable of going .280 / 20 HR / 40 SB's.  It was expected of him in previous seasons.  He's just a late bloomer.  If I didn't own him, I'd be sending offers to pry him from his owner before it's too late.  There are maybe 10 guys in MLB that are even capable of putting together the type of stat line Buxton should end up with.  It's like having a steals specialist that could end up with anywhere from 10-25 HR's.  Nick Senzel / Mondesi / Tim Anderson / Jose Ramirez / Altuve are his company.

 

Runs and RBI's are the 2 categories that suffer with him batting 9th.  That's the one thing stopping him from being a big deal in fantasy.  Everything else he's excelling.  If/when he moves up in the line up, his value will rise very, very quickly and it'll be much more difficult to obtain him via trade.  The rest of the lineup is mashing, with Sano now back, so a move to the 1-5 hole would create a boom for his fantasy value.

How do runs suffer with him batting 9th? 

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3 hours ago, mjb03003 said:

 

There's plenty of posters in this forum who can do a deeper dive than I, but here are some surface level observations via Fangraphs:

                    2017             2018              2019       

OBP:           .314              .183               .338 

SLG:           .413              .200               .519

ISO:            .160              .044               .237 

BB%:            7.4%            3.2%              7.0%

K%:              29.4%          29.8%             23.2%

GB%:           38.7%          43.3%             26.5%   

LD%:            23.2%          23.3%             21.4%

FB%:            38.0%          33.3%             52.0%

Soft%:          18.2%          17.5%             18.4%

Med%:          54.2%          52.4%             46.9%

Hard%:         27.6%          30.2%              34.7%

O-Swing%:   31.1%          39.4%              36.1%

Z-Swing%:    67.0%          73.0%              77.3%  

O-Contact%: 51.1%          58.8%              54.3% 

Z-Contact%:  82.1%          82.9%              86.9% 

 

Lots of career bests in some of the key underlying metrics here...

Most notably, he's cutting the Ks, he's swinging more often and making more contact on pitches in the zone, and he's showing more XBH power than ever before (likely courtesy of a slightly higher hard% and exchanging a lot of GB for FB).

There was a stretch WITHIN that 2017 season was comparable to these 2019 numbers though that was as big in sample size/games played. 

That is problem with comparing 1.5 month year vs a full season Like 2017. Do like what has been going on this year, but he has been an up and down player in his career. He's made adjustment before and pitchers adjusted right back.

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What else on earth does Buxton have to do for the dumb Twins to move this guy from the #9 hole? I mean geez maybe his multiple hit night (including the granny) will make the Twins reconsider.

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On 5/16/2019 at 8:49 PM, rabaak said:

 I think he will continue to improve as the year goes on.

People have been saying this literally every single year of his entire career

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1 hour ago, cs3 said:

People have been saying this literally every single year of his entire career

I watch most of their games. Lots of of other players have taken a while to get adjusted to the speed of the majors. He just looks more comfortable. Even after he has just struck out 2 times in a row.

 

Byron Buxton went 2-for-4 with grand slam and season-high five RBI in the Twins' blowout win over the Mariners on Saturday.

Buxton blew this one wide open, extending the Twins' lead to 5-0, with a grand slam to left field off Mariners' starter Wade LeBlanc in the second inning. He also tacked on a run-scoring single in the fourth. It's still early, but the 25-year-old outfielder is showing glimpses of the immense five-category impact potential fantasy owners have always envisioned. He's hitting .281/.338/.525 with 24 runs scored, four homers, 25 RBI and eight steals in 151 plate appearances.

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At least give the kid a shot against lefties in the leadoff spot. He's sporting a .397wOBA and 150wRC+ against lefties thus far:

# Name PA BB% K% BB/K SB OBP SLG OPS ISO Spd BABIP wRC wRAA wOBA wRC+
 
1
 
Page size:
 10 items in 1 pages
1 Mitch Garver 25 16.0 % 16.0 % 1.00 0 .520 .714 1.234 .286 5.1 .500 7 4.1 .512 226
2 C.J. Cron 30 10.0 % 13.3 % 0.75 0 .400 .731 1.131 .385 2.3 .300 7 3.5 .455 188
3 Eddie Rosario 33 12.1 % 21.2 % 0.57 0 .394 .679 1.073 .357 0.8 .316 7 3.3 .434 174
4 Byron Buxton 26 7.7 % 23.1 % 0.33 0 .423 .500 .923 .125 2.4 .500 5 1.8 .397 150
5 Marwin Gonzalez 33 9.1 % 27.3 % 0.33 0 .364 .500 .864 .200 2.0 .368 5 1.4 .369 130
6 Ehire Adrianza 20 5.0 % 10.0 % 0.50 0 .300 .588 .888 .353 0.1 .143 3 0.7 .357 122
7 Jonathan Schoop 23 4.3 % 21.7 % 0.20 0 .348 .450 .798 .200 0.8 .286 3 0.6 .347 116
8 Jorge Polanco 38 5.3 % 15.8 % 0.33 0 .342 .457 .799 .171 3.2 .321 5 0.8 .342 112
9 Nelson Cruz 29 13.8 % 34.5 % 0.40 0 .345 .435 .780 .217 2.6 .308 4 0.1 .321 98
10 Max Kepler 41 4.9 % 12.2 % 0.40 0 .244 .289 .533 .079 0.1 .212 2 -2.9 .232 38
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Take a look at last nights line up. 

1. Jorge Polanco (S) SS

2. Jonathan Schoop (R) 2B

3. Marwin Gonzalez (S) 1B

4. Eddie Rosario (L) LF

5. C.J. Cron (R) DH

6. Max Kepler (L) RF

7. Miguel Sano (R) 3B

8. Jason Castro (L) C

9. Byron Buxton (R) CF

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You would think the fact Marwin moving up vs Southpaws means the mananger is actually receptive to when hitters get hot. Instead of mocking it.

Buxton being at the bottom probably has to due with making sure there is no pressure on him. While getting his speed at the lineup turn. Not to worry about just trying to get on base for the sake of it. Just letting him be himself and get into a groove.

Think he does eventually move up. There just isn't any urgency to shake things up majorly giving the Twins are winning and the offense is top 5-10 in MLB.

 

 

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7 minutes ago, Slatykamora said:

You would think the fact Marwin moving up vs Southpaws means the mananger is actually receptive to when hitters get hot. Instead of mocking it.

Buxton being at the bottom probably has to due with making sure there is no pressure on him. While getting his speed at the lineup turn. Not to worry about just trying to get on base for the sake of it. Just letting him be himself and get into a groove.

Think he does eventually move up. There just isn't any urgency to shake things up majorly giving the Twins are winning and the offense is top 5-10 in MLB.

 

 

Totally agree--they are really playing it safe with the mental side of it for Byron...with how the offense is chugging, I don't expect to see him outta that 9 hole for a long time.

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