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Byron Buxton 2019 Outlook


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Buxton is like a Thursday night with the boys. You know you got work in the morning, you tell yourself eh I'll just have a pint, quick snack... 3 hours later you're 2 shots and 5 pints deep throw

Looks hot now....   then you draft him.     

https://bringmethenews.com/minnesota-sports/byron-buxton-says-he-fixed-his-swing-by-himself    

8 minutes ago, mevins31 said:

The nerds in their analytics department are like "His exit velocity is good in the nine spot"

 

THAT is what is wrong with the game today. 

Actually the nerds in their analytics department would probably say “He’s 4th in the team in wOBA against lefties and 10th against righties. It’s time to move him up against lefties.” It’s the old school coach setting the lineup who “doesn’t want to mess with his confidence and put too much pressure on him” that’s keeping him in the 9-hole.

 

I own a bunch of shares and would love to see him move up, but as long as he’s healthy and producing, that’s all I really care about.

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2 minutes ago, meh2 said:

Actually the nerds in their analytics department would probably say “He’s 4th in the team in wOBA against lefties and 10th against righties. It’s time to move him up against lefties.” It’s the old school coach setting the lineup who “doesn’t want to mess with his confidence and put too much pressure on him” that’s keeping him in the 9-hole.

 

I own a bunch of shares and would love to see him move up, but as long as he’s healthy and producing, that’s all I really care about.

 

The problem is... he's not really producing. He's like 40-50 AB light of where he could be. His numbers are hampered in all categories because he's in the nine spot. While he's raking like he is (batted ball data says this), you should want him moved up. He's justified it (over Schoop and other turds they're trying).

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4 minutes ago, mevins31 said:

 

The problem is... he's not really producing. He's like 40-50 AB light of where he could be. His numbers are hampered in all categories because he's in the nine spot. While he's raking like he is (batted ball data says this), you should want him moved up. He's justified it (over Schoop and other turds they're trying).

He’s on pace for a 15/75/75/30 season out of the 9-hole. I’d say he’s producing just fine. I’ll take that all day long out of a guy I drafted around 175. He’s outproducing his ADP and returning value. As I said, I’d love to see him get a chance to bat leadoff against lefties- he’s earned it- but I won’t lose sleep over it.

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5 hours ago, mevins31 said:

The nerds in their analytics department are like "His exit velocity is good in the nine spot"

 

THAT is what is wrong with the game today. 

 

I would argue the polar opposite.  It's "old school" thinking keeping him at 9.  This isn't a saber thing.

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I started to run the numbers, then got bored, so I'll guesstimate*:  If Buxton performed exactly the same (it's a dicey proposition, I know) but batted in the top third of the order all year, he'd be at something like 34-7-34-11.  He'd be a top thirty-ish player.  In standard 5x5 he's at 89 right now. 

 

**Buxton's at-bats are roughly 80-85% where they would be if he batted 1-3 instead of 9th. 

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On 5/26/2019 at 11:48 PM, mevins31 said:

We are at Memorial Day and it’s time to draw a conclusion.

 

i like Byron, he’s fun, easy to root for and a good story. He’s a good baseball player when healthy and he’s proving it. He may get MVP votes and WAR out well. 

 

He is a fantasy afterthought and there’s no wheel of fortune turning in his favor. He’s buried in that lineup and it’s not gonna change. 

 

Better real life player than he will ever be in fantasy. He’s going to remain on my team. And he’s not going to really help a ton

 

13 hours ago, mevins31 said:

The problem is... he's not really producing. He's like 40-50 AB light of where he could be. His numbers are hampered in all categories because he's in the nine spot. While he's raking like he is (batted ball data says this), you should want him moved up. He's justified it (over Schoop and other turds they're trying).

 

A fantasy afterthought who's not really producing? really?

Buxton is a top 20 OF and top 5 CF in standard scoring on ESPN's player rater.

There is no fantasy league of any size or format where Buxton hasn't been a huge asset up to this point.

Now, I'm not saying it isn't fair to fantasize about whether he may or may not have been even better if he weren't stuck at the bottom of the lineup.

But if you're going to make that argument, then it's also fair to say that coming up just ahead of the top of the order does provide more protection than some other spots in the order.

Don't get me wrong, I think moving him up is a little overdue. Not way overdue. But sure, a little.

After all, it's not like management has no reason at all for being reluctant to raise expectations on this guy. Before now, he'd been mostly awful for the better part of 4 big league seasons. So moving him up is probably a little less urgent for them than it is for your fantasy team.

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14 hours ago, mevins31 said:

For the love of GOD move him up in the order. Can hit 2nd instead of Schoop and the world goes on just fine Let the guy realize his potential.

 

14 hours ago, mevins31 said:

 

While he's raking like he is (batted ball data says this), you should want him moved up. He's justified it (over Schoop and other turds they're trying).

Buxton:  5 HR,  .258/.316/.491, 109 wRC+, 22% K rate

Schoop: 10 HR, .266/.321/.514, 118 wRC+, 24% K rate

 

Maybe check facts first? Because Schoop has been an objectively better hitter across the board.

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On 5/17/2019 at 9:31 AM, mjb03003 said:

 

There's plenty of posters in this forum who can do a deeper dive than I, but here are some surface level observations via Fangraphs:

                    2017             2018              2019       

OBP:           .314              .183               .338 

SLG:           .413              .200               .519

ISO:            .160              .044               .237 

BB%:            7.4%            3.2%              7.0%

K%:              29.4%          29.8%             23.2%

GB%:           38.7%          43.3%             26.5%   

LD%:            23.2%          23.3%             21.4%

FB%:            38.0%          33.3%             52.0%

Soft%:          18.2%          17.5%             18.4%

Med%:          54.2%          52.4%             46.9%

Hard%:         27.6%          30.2%              34.7%

O-Swing%:   31.1%          39.4%              36.1%

Z-Swing%:    67.0%          73.0%              77.3%  

O-Contact%: 51.1%          58.8%              54.3% 

Z-Contact%:  82.1%          82.9%              86.9% 

 

Lots of career bests in some of the key underlying metrics here...

Most notably, he's cutting the Ks, he's swinging more often and making more contact on pitches in the zone, and he's showing more XBH power than ever before (likely courtesy of a slightly higher hard% and exchanging a lot of GB for FB).

 

It's been about 3 weeks since this post so let's check in and see if Buxton is sustaining any/all of these improvements:

 

OBP: .318 (down 20 points)

SLG: .519 (exactly the same)

ISO: .257 (up 20 points)

BB%: 7.0% (exactly the same)

K%: 23.0% (down 0.2%)

GB%: 28.5% (up 2%, but this is actually a good thing for a player with Buxton's speed...)

LD%: 21.9% (up 0.5%)

FB%: 49.6% (down 2.4%)

Soft%: 18.7% (up 0.3%)

Med%: 46.8% (down 0.1%)

Hard%: 34.5% (down 0.2%)

O-Swing%: 36.3% (up 0.2%)

Z-Swing%: 75.7% (down 1.6%)

O-Contact%: 57.4% (up 3.1%)

Z-Contact%: 86.0% (down 0.9%)

 

Takeaway: BB and K rates are stable. Hitting slightly more GBs and LDs, fewer FBs (again, might be a good thing for someone with his wheels). Soft/Med/Hard relatively unchanged. Plate discipline has taken a slight tick down (swinging slightly more at balls, less at strikes), although it's nice to see he's making more contact when he does swing at pitches outside the zone.

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Haven't had any frustrations rostering this guy this year. At the ADP he was going in drafts, you have to be happy with what you've gotten. Still think the SB's will spike at some point.

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1 minute ago, Overlord said:

 

I do.  Every damned day.  

Instead of being ranked 52 he would be top 30ish.

Where would you bat him though? The highest in the order I could see him might be 6th and that isn't ideal as it wouldn't improve his counting stats, imo. 

Kepler has a line of 42/15/40/1 with 26 walks/38k  .264AVE, .341OBP, .536SLG, .878OPS

Polanco 41R/10HR/34RBI   .333AVE, .393OBP, .569SLG, .962OPS

3-5 almost has to be Cron, Rossario, and Cruz in some order. Then Sano at 6th with Schoop/Garver following. 

9th just seems to be where he fits best in the order.

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On 6/6/2019 at 8:43 AM, CFN said:

Haven't had any frustrations rostering this guy this year. At the ADP he was going in drafts, you have to be happy with what you've gotten. Still think the SB's will spike at some point.

First off, my comment isn't directed at you personally, but I see this kind of thing posted very often, and I want to present a more useful line of thinking.

I get what you're saying about ADP and being happy with what you've got out of him, but that's not really how you should view guys like Buxton. For example, he had an 18th rd ADP on Yahoo. An 18th rounder returning 18th round value is not helping you win your league. You can argue that its not even helping you at all. 18th round value is not really even startable in normal sized leagues . In order to win leagues you need your late rounder to provide surplus value. Because if you aren't getting more than you paid for on those late round fliers, then theyre basically useless and can be replaced by players on the waiver wire. If you're looking to win your league, Buxton has still been a disappointment.

 

And this isn't limited to just Buxton or just this thread. (And im not even necessarily trying to say that Buxton has only provided 18th round value. I know hes been better than that.) In general you're hoping to hit on a couple late rounders that provide significant surplus. While its fairly important for early round picks, getting "what you pay for" out of those end-of-the-draft guys is not actually helping you. Surplus value is what's important

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