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Byron Buxton 2019 Outlook


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Just now, KingJoffrey said:

I am taking a flyer, got some good deals on some players I wanted in one league and I neglected steals a little.  Scary that he's batting 9th.  Unacceptable - will hurt his counting stats.  One bright note, if Kepler hits a little bit, can easily score more runs because of his speed.

He'll have to get on base first

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Buxton is like a Thursday night with the boys. You know you got work in the morning, you tell yourself eh I'll just have a pint, quick snack... 3 hours later you're 2 shots and 5 pints deep throw

Looks hot now....   then you draft him.     

https://bringmethenews.com/minnesota-sports/byron-buxton-says-he-fixed-his-swing-by-himself    

He’s going to win a lot of people their leagues this year. Overall steals are down (depressing value) and he never gets caught. If you TOOK AWAY his name, then his adp would be 110ish. 

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1 hour ago, jb_power said:

the hype is strong.  NFBC ADP over the last 2 weeks is up to 143. 

 

No longer a lottery ticket as thats a 12th rounder in a 12 team league.

 

 

Yeah, that's too high based on his history.  I'd rather gamble on Jackie Bradley Jr at the end of a draft than on Buxton in the 12th round at this point. 

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Obviously this writer from PitcherList doesn't realize that spring training stats are meaningless:

Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins

Oh, here we go again! Byron Buxton, the former No. 1 prospect, is tantalizing Twins fans and fantasy owners alike with a scorching 10 games worth of at-bats. I, like many others in the fantasy universe, have been burned by Buxton before. But it seems like there might just be some real improvements underlying Buxton’s absurd .448/.485/.966 Spring Training batting line. The lowest rolling 25-plate appearance strikeout rate that Buxton has attained in his MLB career is 16%, which came in his mini-breakout in late 2017. Meanwhile, his strikeout rate sits at 12.1% in 33 PAs this spring. While that type of relative improvement isn’t on the Pinder level highlighted above, it should stop fans and pundits from outright dismissing the performance. The old expression – fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice (or three or four times in this case), shame on me – certainly bears repeating when it comes to Buxton, however, his spring gains in plate discipline give me a sliver of hope that real change is around the corner.

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Under 20%? WOW !!!  You are dreaming. I'm willing to bet by seasons end he will be closer to 30% . He'll get in a slump and get frustrated and start swinging at everything or watch good pitches down the middle. At this point he is what he is . Good luck with that.

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31 minutes ago, motown magic said:

Under 20%? WOW !!!  You are dreaming. I'm willing to bet by seasons end he will be closer to 30% . He'll get in a slump and get frustrated and start swinging at everything or watch good pitches down the middle. At this point he is what he is . Good luck with that.

 

As the pitcherlist article points out, he's at 12% in 33 spring training ABs. Fangraphs says K rate tends to stabilize after 60 ABs. Not saying it's a sure thing, but it's too early to say a 25 year old, 1st overall draft pick "is what he is."

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8 minutes ago, lazershow said:

 

As the pitcherlist article points out, he's at 12% in 33 spring training ABs. Fangraphs says K rate tends to stabilize after 60 ABs. Not saying it's a sure thing, but it's too early to say a 25 year old, 1st overall draft pick "is what he is."

It is spring training. Stats don't matter. How many of those at bats were against pitchers that aren't close to MLB? 

I doubt he gets under 20%. Under 25% is a dream. 

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9 minutes ago, lazershow said:

 

As the pitcherlist article points out, he's at 12% in 33 spring training ABs. Fangraphs says K rate tends to stabilize after 60 ABs. Not saying it's a sure thing, but it's too early to say a 25 year old, 1st overall draft pick "is what he is."

 

33 spring training ABs is a completely meaningless sample-size.

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34 minutes ago, OaksterDan said:

 

33 spring training ABs is a completely meaningless sample-size.

 

The logic on this forum is unreal. So Buxton spring training stats dont matter. Yet Ryan McMahon spring training does, their fantasy prima darling.

Edited by Miketrout009
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HRs take 170 ABs to stabilize, batting avg takes 910 ABs.. nobody is saying those spring training stats matter. If 60 ABs is enough for K rate to mean something, then is it more likely that he strikes out half of his next 28 ABs or that he ends up under 20% at that point? If you say that it's only against minor leaguers, then are you throwing out all minor league stats? Obviously not many people rake against Scherzer or Sale. Buxton is going to see a lot of the Royals, Tigers, and White Sox pitching.

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Spring Training stats don't matter. You look for players making changes, velocity, new pitches. Prospects first exposer against MLBers. Hitters making adjustments. How guys coming back from injury look, etc etc.

 

We know Buxton has made some changes and have lead to positive results. There can be hope for a good 5X5 year. Facing pitchers in the spring is nothing like the regular season. Pitchers are using the time to build arm strength, sharpen their command, develop and experiment with pitches and sequencing.

 

Making speculation that Buxton has fixed his contact issues facing spring pitchers is leap of faith given his track record of poor contact.

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1 hour ago, AJdude said:

Anybody know what he did in spring training last year?  Might be the only comparison that yields some sort of adequate evidence that maybe he has improved?  Or not.

 

https://www.mlb.com/player/byron-buxton-621439?stats=career-s-hitting-mlb&year=2019

 

click on 'Stats" Make sure it says Spring Training

Edited by OrangeCrush
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Got thrown out at 2nd today after he slid into the bag on a double and lost his balance post-slide and was tagged out. Musgrove struck him out once on off speed pitches. But the second time facing Musgrove got a double and drove in a run before being tagged out at second.

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On 3/18/2019 at 11:36 PM, KingJoffrey said:

 

He's a lottery ticket. Nobody paid for him. He flops ...you move on.  

Lottery ticket ? When was the last time you got a lottery ticket for free? When was the last time you won anything worth bragging about if you did win? Ain't nothing free pal. It will cost you one way or another.

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4 hours ago, Miketrout009 said:

 

The logic on this forum is unreal. So Buxton spring training stats dont matter. Yet Ryan McMahon spring training does, their fantasy prima darling.

 

Me thinks the huge difference here is that we've seen Buxton have about 1,000 major league at-bats completely struggle overall.  Ryan McMahon has 200 major league at-bats. 

Totally realize that Buxton is still young - the caveat is that he's going to have had to make huge adjustments to indeed be fantasy relevant coupled with the fact owners have been burnt by the guy for years.

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Buxton reminds me of his mentor Torrii Hunter. Hunter was up and down for a couple of years before the lights came on. I think Buxton will eventually blossom and reach his potential. If he can just get on base, he disrupts the whole game.

I worry more about his tendency for running into fences chasing fly balls.

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2 hours ago, OrangeCrush said:

 

https://www.mlb.com/player/byron-buxton-621439?stats=career-s-hitting-mlb&year=2019

 

click on 'Stats" Make sure it says Spring Training

thanks.  Stats are inconclusive.  Slightly better K rate in 30 less plate appearances this year vs last.  More power.  He needs another 30 or so ABs to make it a slightly more worthwhile exercise but the trends are generally more positive this year so far.

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2 hours ago, IlliniGuy76 said:

 

Me thinks the huge difference here is that we've seen Buxton have about 1,000 major league at-bats completely struggle overall.  Ryan McMahon has 200 major league at-bats. 

Totally realize that Buxton is still young - the caveat is that he's going to have had to make huge adjustments to indeed be fantasy relevant coupled with the fact owners have been burnt by the guy for years.

 

I understand the 1,000 major leagues at-bats but to counter argue that. Buxton is 25. McMahan is 24. Not everyone becomes Mike Trout right away. It takes time and for others, it takes more time. Not to mention he was the #1 prospect of all baseball at one point. What we do know is he is young, added 21 pounds of muscle and is one and a half years ago, he had an outstanding second half. His strong spring brings optimism and hopes that he has the potential to turn it around, so spring training does matter. 

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