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Ronald Acuna 2019 Outlook


StarlinCastro
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Likely NL ROY, with a .293/.366/.552 line.

 

Steamer while it's projections are usually low on players, is VERY LOW on Ronald for 2019.  

 

They project his line to drop to .278/.346/.488 and his wRC+ to drop over twenty points to (143 to 122)

 

This seems pretty steep of a drop off for such a young player.  I am expecting massive gains in runs and OBP if he can stay healthy and stay in leadoff spot.  Albies or Ender are projected to hit behind him.  

 

What do you think of Acuna for 2019?  Where will you be drafting him?

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Not as high as he will likely go. I've seen some mocks where people are reaching for him with a top 6 or 7 pick. I can't agree with that. I'd rather have Trout, Betts, Ramirez, Lindor, Martinez, Machado, Harper, Scherzer, Sale, Bregman, Yelich, Arenado, Trea, Altuve (not in order), and maybe guys like Judge or DeGrom. He's somewhere in my second round, but I doubt I'll get him there because someone in my league will want to be the smartest guy in the room and pick him way earlier than he should be going in the hopes of finding Trout 2.0

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52 minutes ago, Saucy said:

Not as high as he will likely go. I've seen some mocks where people are reaching for him with a top 6 or 7 pick. I can't agree with that. I'd rather have Trout, Betts, Ramirez, Lindor, Martinez, Machado, Harper, Scherzer, Sale, Bregman, Yelich, Arenado, Trea, Altuve (not in order), and maybe guys like Judge or DeGrom. He's somewhere in my second round, but I doubt I'll get him there because someone in my league will want to be the smartest guy in the room and pick him way earlier than he should be going in the hopes of finding Trout 2.0

His slg is higher than Trouts in their first years.

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2 minutes ago, Magoo said:

His slg is higher than Trouts in their first years.

 

You know who else had a high slugging percentage that Trout in their first years?

 

Paul DeJong, Ryan Schimpf, Russell Branyan, Brett Lawrie, Craig Wilson, Chris Duncan, Ryan O'Hearn, and Brian Daubach.

 

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Just now, Saucy said:

 

You know who else had a high slugging percentage that Trout in their first years?

 

Paul DeJong, Ryan Schimpf, Russell Branyan, Brett Lawrie, Craig Wilson, Chris Duncan, Ryan O'Hearn, and Brian Daubach.

 

That’s an insanely lazy  use of comps.

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12 minutes ago, Magoo said:

Acuna may be a reach in the mid first but he’s got top overall player upside. 

Not this year maybe in a few years i doubt he has a better year than Trout, Mookie, Arenado, Lindor, JRam, just to name a few

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20 minutes ago, Magoo said:

That’s an insanely lazy  use of comps.

 

The point was not that all those plays are comparable to Trout. I was simply stating that just because Acuna had a higher slugging percentage it does not mean he is going to become Trout. Which was what your initial response was inching toward suggesting.

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No one is 

1 minute ago, Saucy said:

 

The point was not that all those plays are comparable to Trout. I was simply stating that just because Acuna had a higher slugging percentage it does not mean he is going to become Trout. Which was what your initial response was inching toward suggesting.

No one is Trout obviously. But for fantasy, he’s not that far off. No question Lindor and JRam are more proven. But his speed is more legit than those two imo.

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7 minutes ago, Magoo said:

No one is Trout obviously. But for fantasy, he’s not that far off. No question Lindor and JRam are more proven. But his speed is more legit than those two imo.

 

5be0dc0140757_ScreenShot2018-11-05at7_09_55PM.png.f8c0551cb04d58bd2cc5f8a0569db40b.png

 

I'm not sure about that. Even extrapolated over 162 games they both beat him in steals AND attempted steals, which is probably a better indicator.

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1 hour ago, Saucy said:

 

5be0dc0140757_ScreenShot2018-11-05at7_09_55PM.png.f8c0551cb04d58bd2cc5f8a0569db40b.png

 

I'm not sure about that. Even extrapolated over 162 games they both beat him in steals AND attempted steals, which is probably a better indicator.

I'm surprised you didn't quote batting avg from 2016-2017

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2 minutes ago, Saucy said:

 

Look, all I'm saying is if you buy Acuna over those other proven guys you are paying for his potential. I wouldn't advise that.

 

25 steals over 745 PAs is not something very bankable.

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2 hours ago, Magoo said:

His slg is higher than Trouts in their first years.

Trouts age 20 slugging was 564 and his triple slash line was .326/.399/.564

 

Acuna's age 20 slugging was 552 and his triple slash line was  .293/.366/.552

 

Not really fair to include Trouts age 19, since Acuna did not crack the majors at 19.  He may very well have Trouts power.. but he has not show to have trouts feel to hit. None of MILB numbers or scouting suggests that.  That feel to hit with Power/Speed is what makes Trout, Trout. Only Mookie has a chance to compare today.

 

Even his speed grade from what ive seen is just a tick below what Trout was when he first came up. He compares to Trouts speed NOW likely.

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2 hours ago, Slatykamora said:

Not really fair to include Trouts age 19, since Acuna did not crack the majors at 19.  He may very well have Trouts power.. but he has not show to have trouts feel to hit. None of MILB numbers or scouting suggests that.  That feel to hit with Power/Speed is what makes Trout, Trout. Only Mookie has a chance to compare today.

 

Mookie and Jose Ramirez*

 

Imagine his line without his awful BABIP luck.

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Congrats to the reigning NL ROY.  What figured to be a close race between him and Soto turned out to be a landslide victory as Soto only received 2 first place votes and Buehler only 1 while Acuna got the rest.  Expectations and draft price will be high next year but I am glad to have him in a keeper and a dynasty league.  Some regression may be in store as the league adjusts to him and if he can't improve on his K rate, but if he can come close to last years second half  production over a full season he could easily be a top 5 bat as soon as next season.

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On 11/5/2018 at 8:36 PM, Magoo said:

 

 

25 steals over 745 PAs is not something very bankable.

25SB in 661AB (10CS) 2018

15SB in 651 (3CS) in 2017

19SB in 604AB (5CS) in 2016

12SB in 390AB (2CS) in 2015

 

What's your point here, Magoo? Are you honestly saying that you don't think Lindor will hit 25SB or 600+ABs? Which is it? I think it's entirely reasonable to bank on him stealing 20-25 bases in 2019 with 600+AB. You know why? Because he's smart and healthy. Statscast has him as the 115th fastest player in baseball, behind guys like Nick Williams, Brandon Nimmo, David Dahl, and Acuna. So he's not lighting the basepaths on fire, he's running smart. There's no reason to think he can't do it again.

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19 hours ago, BlueJaysIn2030 said:

25SB in 661AB (10CS) 2018

15SB in 651 (3CS) in 2017

19SB in 604AB (5CS) in 2016

12SB in 390AB (2CS) in 2015

 

What's your point here, Magoo? Are you honestly saying that you don't think Lindor will hit 25SB or 600+ABs? Which is it? I think it's entirely reasonable to bank on him stealing 20-25 bases in 2019 with 600+AB. You know why? Because he's smart and healthy. Statscast has him as the 115th fastest player in baseball, behind guys like Nick Williams, Brandon Nimmo, David Dahl, and Acuna. So he's not lighting the basepaths on fire, he's running smart. There's no reason to think he can't do it again.

My main point was that it is reasonable to project Acuna to steal more bases than Lindor because his steals are somewhat reliant on plate appearances and they are in that range 15-20ish on average that historically is not that reliable.

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5 minutes ago, Magoo said:

My main point was that it is reasonable to project Acuna to steal more bases than Lindor because his steals are somewhat reliant on plate appearances and they are in that range 15-20ish on average that historically is not that reliable.

Lindor averages a steal every 32AB over his career. That's 18 if he only hits 600AB. 

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8 minutes ago, BlueJaysIn2030 said:

Lindor averages a steal every 32AB over his career. That's 18 if he only hits 600AB. 

Fair, but we're debating first round picks here.  I want the SB upside with Acuna.  I'm reaching and may be wrong for all the reasons already stated in this thread about Lindor>Acuna, but I think it's fair to give Acuna the SB advantage at this point.

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