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Ronald Acuna 2019 Outlook


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On 02/02/2019 at 9:27 AM, AF25 said:

 

Dedicating my 100th post to Ronald Acuña......

 

Acuña has a pre-season ranking on Yahoo at 9; it is not crazy to think that he is a legit 30/30 guy at all. Sometimes you have to take a risk and I think Acuña's floor makes him a less risky first rounder.

 

I don't believe as we get closer to the season, you will see an ADP of 18 or higher as shown below in RTSSports and ESPN, this kid is going off first round right now in many platforms.

 

ADP/Rankings
Source Rank
ADP - NFBC 8
Rankings - Composite 9
Rankings - Steamer 10
ADP - Fantrax 10
Rankings - RotoChamp 12
ADP - RTSports 18
ADP - ESPN 23

 

 

What exactly makes you believe he has such a high floor?

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6 hours ago, jspeco9 said:

 

What exactly makes you believe he has such a high floor?

 

I see Acuña as a very minimum 20/20 player with a good chance to be 30/30 player and his BB% of 9.2% last year is close to above average; while he did strikeout 25% that might hurt his BA,  But even that, considering that he had a career minor league K % of 21%, I see him improving from that 25% in his first taste of the majors. 

 

Taking him in first round is obviously for his tremendous upside but I am willing to take the risk here knowing that his floor is a 20/20 .265-.275 BA and .330 - .340 OBP.

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If I’m remembering correctly, his K’s also seemed to spike upon promotion and then decrease after getting acclimated a bit. If he can get his BB/K at .50 he’s gonna be a nightmare at bat. 143 wRC+ isn’t too shabby for someone who couldn’t buy a beer. 

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12 hours ago, AF25 said:

 

I see Acuña as a very minimum 20/20 player with a good chance to be 30/30 player and his BB% of 9.2% last year is close to above average; while he did strikeout 25% that might hurt his BA,  But even that, considering that he had a career minor league K % of 21%, I see him improving from that 25% in his first taste of the majors. 

 

Taking him in first round is obviously for his tremendous upside but I am willing to take the risk here knowing that his floor is a 20/20 .265-.275 BA and .330 - .340 OBP.

he could be a 40/30 guy imo.

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7 hours ago, cdd10 said:

he could be a 40/30 guy imo.

 

Good Lord I hope we see this in 2019! Honestly though I don't see it happening but I think it could at some point in his career. Either way, I am really going to enjoy visiting SunTrust often this summer. 

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15 hours ago, mavsfan23 said:

If I’m remembering correctly, his K’s also seemed to spike upon promotion and then decrease after getting acclimated a bit. If he can get his BB/K at .50 he’s gonna be a nightmare at bat. 143 wRC+ isn’t too shabby for someone who couldn’t buy a beer. 

 

Great point, I miss the part where he actually had the K% decreased a bit. I think we will see continuous improvement. 

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3 hours ago, BostonCajun said:

 

Good Lord I hope we see this in 2019! Honestly though I don't see it happening but I think it could at some point in his career. Either way, I am really going to enjoy visiting SunTrust often this summer. 

 

I agree, I am a big Acuña fan but I don't see 40/30 in 2019; at some point in his career, he will but to say he will at 2019 that's pretty high expectation on the kid. I hope he does of course, but won't hold my breath for it.

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  • 3 weeks later...

When I think about assessing the long-term value of a 20-year old with tools this loud, the questions I ask myself are not “does he have the capacity for 35 or 45 steals at his peak?” Instead, I’m more concerned about whether he’s shown propensity to tinker with his approach, whether he fades or improves over the course of a season, and the extent to which he’s injury prone.

 

There is nothing that excites me more about Acuna than the fact his 2017 AAA slash line immediately upon promotion (.344/.393/.548 in 54 games as a 19-year old) was higher across the board than his 2017 AA slash line (.326/.374/.520 in 57 games as a 19-year old). Lightning quick learning curve. Plug and play.

 

Last year’s splits – both in output and approach – are obvious further evidence of this:

First half: .249/.304/.438 (12:56 BB:K) across 43 games

Second half: .322/.403/.625 (33:67 BB:K) across 68 games

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On 2/23/2019 at 11:20 AM, Mdubb23 said:

When I think about assessing the long-term value of a 20-year old with tools this loud, the questions I ask myself are not “does he have the capacity for 35 or 45 steals at his peak?” Instead, I’m more concerned about whether he’s shown propensity to tinker with his approach, whether he fades or improves over the course of a season, and the extent to which he’s injury prone.

 

There is nothing that excites me more about Acuna than the fact his 2017 AAA slash line immediately upon promotion (.344/.393/.548 in 54 games as a 19-year old) was higher across the board than his 2017 AA slash line (.326/.374/.520 in 57 games as a 19-year old). Lightning quick learning curve. Plug and play.

 

Last year’s splits – both in output and approach – are obvious further evidence of this:

First half: .249/.304/.438 (12:56 BB:K) across 43 games

Second half: .322/.403/.625 (33:67 BB:K) across 68 games

 

I loved watching how this kid adjusted to pitchers adjusting to him throughout the year. He's a true student of the game and all year last year as soon as he got in the dugout after an AB (K, Walk, HR, whatever), he was sitting down with either the coaching staff or players going over what he did and analyzing his AB. During multiple interviews last year Freeman, when asked about Acuna, would comment on how much of a professional he was in his first season as a 19 year old and was extremely impressed with his approach and maturity. I am so excited to watch what he does this year and to see how he adjusted to teams having more info on him heading into this year.

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I'm all aboard the Acuna train... thought I'd get 0 zeros this year with his auction value.. but in two deep leagues he was the first rounder that went for the least amount of money so ended up on my squads. loving it!

 

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On 2/4/2019 at 8:31 AM, AF25 said:

I see Acuña as a very minimum 20/20 player with a good chance to be 30/30 player

Nobody in baseball has a "good chance" at 30/30. Its only happened a handful of times in the past 5. There are a few guys who have the potential,  including Acuna, but nobody is even as close as even money to accomplish it this year.

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He's one of the players that has good size gap in value between roto and points. I think we see a bit of sophomore meh and he goes .270/25HR/85RBI/20SB/160K. 

The K-BB is going to be grizzle in points leagues.

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  • 2 weeks later...
On 11/5/2018 at 4:14 PM, StarlinCastro said:

What do you think of Acuna for 2019?  Where will you be drafting him?

Watching him today against Corbin - he can do it all. The last few days I have been looking at him hard for my #4 pick - the more I look the more confident I am that he is pretty special. Now I'm kicking myself a bit for picking the #4 spot in KSDS as I might have been able to drop back a few spots and still get him. 😆

Just think he will be more fun to own than JD or Arenado. I've done three slow drafts so far and he has gone 7, 8 and 3.

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1 hour ago, Simsanityy179 said:

Will he still steal 20 bases as the cleanup hitter ? Debating if I should take him over joram or yelich

 

I'd bet he steals 20 with confidence.

I would be surprised if he doesn't go 35/20. Kid is really good, he's #3 on my board.

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8 hours ago, DrizzleOnTop said:

Listen. I lucked out and got him last year. Loved him. Obviously.

But are we really completely convinced there will be no regression?

Curious: What was trout's ADP his sophomore year? 

 

Call me overly optimistic but I’m really not concerned about regression. We all watched his numbers get better every time he was promoted through the minors. Then when he was promoted to the majors he just picked up where he left off. He has passed every eye test IMO.

Where I may differ from some is in my expectations for stolen bases. Hitting lead off for much of last year he stole 16 bags in 433 ABs. While that’s good it’s not indicative of him being a 30+ SB guy. So over a full season even if he were leading off I wouldn’t really expect more than 25. That being said I think 15, even in the cleanup spot, is a safe expectation for him this year with the possibility for more. I just don’t see Snitker stopping him from running if the opportunity presents itself just because he’s hitting 4th. His speed is too valuable and this young team thrived last year when he, Albies and Inciarte were running. 

My projection for him this year is .287/.360/.545 96/33/108/18. 

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