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Ronald Acuna 2019 Outlook


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Just now, BackyardBaseball said:

 

6 years for $144 mil is not close to the same as 8 years 100.  Obviously Acunas is earlier, but the main difference is his $17 mil option years for year 9/10 were 33 million for trout

Just talking about the time frame. When they both had many years left of getting small money

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23 minutes ago, matdotmarshall said:

Fair point, sure. Still, this contract covers the fourth year and there are examples of non-MVP, non-champion players who get above ~$12m by then, right? 

I dunno man. I don't blame Acuña for taking the money and i'm not trying to argue, but I'm struggling to see how he didn't get shorted.

 

Hes almost assuredly going to get shorted, but he’s also got $100M banked if he gets sideswiped tomorrow and can’t run anymore. 

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This is an absolutely awful contract for Acuna. You can slice and dice it anyway you want by looking at his incredibly low salary and blah blah blah. He kneecapped both of his legs (and probably his elbows too) for his lifetime earning potential with this one contract. Truly awful decision making. He is probably a top 3ish player that I would bet heavily on to continue to dominate the game for many, many years. The "risk" for a position player is almost nothing. ACL. TJ. One year injuries and he is back to being dynamic. This contract will only look worse and worse as time passes. This is one of the worst contracts I can remember a player signing given proper context. Great for the Braves though. Acuna did no favors for any of his fellow players. I don't know how the players can negotiate when they continue to behave in this economic fashion. 

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9 minutes ago, colepenhagen said:

looks fine if you want to compare it to yelich 7year 49 mil. 

is yelich the one who kick started all the teams paying up and locking down these young guys before their rookie contracts expire? 

Pujols is the one I remember with the Cardinals.

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Just now, colepenhagen said:

yea I remember pujols 10/100 I believe maybe 120. didn't remember how many years left he had on his rookie deal

7y/100m

 

tho at the time, that was considered alot of money (relatively speaking).  Still a hell of a deal for the cards though.

 

the key is that is also gave the cards financial flexibility to build around, so ill be interested to see what the braves do.

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Anyone who thinks Acuna is getting robbed is not factoring in the risk premium of playing another five (?) years without a career altering injury.   It's more than fair and more than prudent to become filthy rich today instead of gambling on becoming extra-filthy rich in a few years.  At some point, the amount of wealth offered here and now is so absurd, it's beyond stupid to gamble or let ego get in the way.

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why would a player care about building a winning team around himself? (sarcasm)

 

It's all about me me me, money money money, ego ego ego. That's the "smart" way to go about it. :rolleyes:

 

Did Atlanta get a great deal? Probably so, but we'll see how it turns out. Atlanta saw limited MLB action and paid him 100 million, it's not like he has 2 full years of top level production yet. Injury risk for every player too.

 

Easy to sit here and say, bad deal he could've gotten more etc. You don't know what you would do in his shoes, dream on. 

Edited by Members_Only_76
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Do you know how little acuna would of made for the next 3 years?  Maybe 3M total for the next 3 years.

 

Next 5 years he might make total 30M.

Yea the final 3 years he would most likely make 30M per.  So he shorted himself maybe 20M in the deal for locking him self up.

 

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57 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

Absolutely.  God forbid but he could get a career ending injury at any time.  He has just banked a 100 mil guaranteed plus at least two 10 mil buyout years should he remain healthy and stellar and choose free agency:

That is enough money for anyone in life and if he invests wisely and doesn't start blowing away money he will have way more than that amount in 8 years.  Having the money early means it can be earning him even more money in stocks, real estate etc then waiting for THE big pay day that may or may not ever come depending on him staying healthy all this time coming up.  Money in hand earns you a lot MORE money if invested wisely.

The options make it even worse. 

You are approaching this with a fear based mentality. A "what if" approach focusing on the worst possible outcome regardless of how big of outliers those events that you fear are. Career ending injury? For a position player? Honestly, when is the last one that happened in baseball? And if that is your fear, take out insurance. Acuna doesn't need to stay healthy over the course of this contract. He just needs to stay healthy as he would have approached free agency. TJ the year before he hits free agency would do absolutely nothing to his value on the open market. Again, if you are worried about the what ifs there is insurance for that. 

Your money argument completely ignores so many principles in economics it is reckless. You need to put it in a spreadsheet and you will see he signed for close to 50 cents on the dollar over the life of that contract. Acuna would have hit free agency in his age 26 season (I believe). He would have made $30+ million per season. Easily. Factor in arbitration numbers that are only going up (Arenado was $24-30 range in arbitration). It won't take you very far in your calculations to realize Acuna would have to be the greatest investor of all time to get anywhere close to the amount of money he would get in the open market getting to free agency as quickly as possible. Just throw it in a spreadsheet and put in a constant return and take it out to 2050 and it won't even be close. Then calculate a realistic age 30 free agent contract with all of your prime behind you and calculate an age 26 free agent contract with years of prime for the taking for his next team. 

This isn't about a player making more than he needs in a lifetime. It is literally the difference between millions and billions over a lifetime. And who do you think pockets all of that cash that Acuna left on the table....ownership. But yea, great job Acuna and his agent...you really did fantastic work...only the exact opposite. 

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12 minutes ago, Denbo32 said:

Do you know how little acuna would of made for the next 3 years?  Maybe 3M total for the next 3 years.

 

Next 5 years he might make total 30M.

Yea the final 3 years he would most likely make 30M per.  So he shorted himself maybe 20M in the deal for locking him self up.

 

No he didn't. Arenado was in the 24-30 million range for his final year of arbitration. Your numbers are very far off and short sighted. Put it in a spreadsheet where he is paid a constant over each year with a return on that money goes into the year with and then add the new salary amount. Take it out 8 years at a constant and then add 2 years of the options with their bump. Then put in whatever conservative number you want to put in for arbitration and then realistically throw in a number when he signs a free agent contract in his age 26 season. Keep the rate of return on his money the same between the two. It doesn't take long for $30+ million a year to dwarf 12.5 million a year. 

Also, to think Acuna in his age 30 or 31 season is going to get some insane contract extension is kind of wishful thinking, right? If you think he kills it in his age 31-40 seasons then what is his age 26-30 seasons worth in a contract that covers just his prime? $50 a year? When you put it in a spreadsheet it is impossible to argue this contract is good for Acuna unless your catastrophic injury risk is astronomically high...and even then there is insurance to negate that. 

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To everyone that has an argument of career altering injury can you name the last one suffered by a position player? Can you then calculate the occurrence of that event across the entirety of the league. Considering I can not remember one injury that ruined the career of a position player I am going to assume the % is astronomically low. 

Others have said what would you do in his shoes. The answer is really simple because he has so many options. Insurance. Literally anything over giving the Braves control of 4 years of free agency. Until you throw it in a spreadsheet you all are just being blinded by the dollar amount and not actually analyzing the financial impacts of this deal for Acuna. 

I didn't format this all nicely because this is quick and dirty. Top is years. Middle is contract. Bottom is team control, arbitration, free agency. Assume a 10% annual return. 0.5, 1 million in contracts under team control. 5, 15, 25 in arbitration years. 35 per year in free agency. You all can nitpick the details and inputs because I don't care to enter that fray. I went quick so if there is a fundamental flaw like years missed or something substantial I will correct it and repost. This is to illustrate the power of the time value of money when you get to free agency as quickly as possible. This only gets worse and worse in the future. The gap will never close, it will only get wider over time. So when you say lifetime, you mean 80-90 years old and this goes to age 30. 

1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0
12.5 26.3 41.4 58.0 76.3 96.4 118.6 142.9 174.2 208.7
0.5 1.6 6.7 22.4 49.6 89.6 133.5 181.9 235.1 293.6

I provided my two pennies. I am probably bowing out of this conversation unless it gets more interesting with data and less based in emotion. 

*Also note, this doesn't factor taxes, expenses, etc. The net figures and worth of Acuna will be far lower than this unless he turns out to be an incredibly successful investor. 

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14 minutes ago, thezing1 said:

To everyone that has an argument of career altering injury can you name the last one suffered by a position player? Can you then calculate the occurrence of that event across the entirety of the league. Considering I can not remember one injury that ruined the career of a position player I am going to assume the % is astronomically low. 

Others have said what would you do in his shoes. The answer is really simple because he has so many options. Insurance. Literally anything over giving the Braves control of 4 years of free agency. Until you throw it in a spreadsheet you all are just being blinded by the dollar amount and not actually analyzing the financial impacts of this deal for Acuna. 

I didn't format this all nicely because this is quick and dirty. Top is years. Middle is contract. Bottom is team control, arbitration, free agency. Assume a 10% annual return. 0.5, 1 million in contracts under team control. 5, 15, 25 in arbitration years. 35 per year in free agency. You all can nitpick the details and inputs because I don't care to enter that fray. I went quick so if there is a fundamental flaw like years missed or something substantial I will correct it and repost. This is to illustrate the power of the time value of money when you get to free agency as quickly as possible. This only gets worse and worse in the future. The gap will never close, it will only get wider over time. So when you say lifetime, you mean 80-90 years old and this goes to age 30. 

1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0
12.5 26.3 41.4 58.0 76.3 96.4 118.6 142.9 174.2 208.7
0.5 1.6 6.7 22.4 49.6 89.6 133.5 181.9 235.1 293.6

I provided my two pennies. I am probably bowing out of this conversation unless it gets more interesting with data and less based in emotion. 

*Also note, this doesn't factor taxes, expenses, etc. The net figures and worth of Acuna will be far lower than this unless he turns out to be an incredibly successful investor. 

jo fer 4.5 mill career earnings. bet that 100 mill would of been nice for the wife/gf an kid

Edited by colepenhagen
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47 minutes ago, thezing1 said:

To everyone that has an argument of career altering injury can you name the last one suffered by a position player?

Oscar Taveras, for one. I get it; he PROBABLY could have made more money waiting. I also understand not taking the chance.

Edited by Hanghow
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4 hours ago, Members_Only_76 said:

He could still get a big contract later too. Hard to pass 100 million dollars up at age 21.

 

6 years would just be the club doing him a favor of paying him early. He got paid early, club got him for more years. Seems fair. 

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3 hours ago, matdotmarshall said:

Mookie just got $20m in arbitration, right? Hard for me to really understand how this adds up well for a guy who could command a Troutian payday. Sure, nobody's ever offered me $100 million but then again I've never been worth three times that amount.

Look at what his salary is/was going to be this year and up until arbitration. Now look at what he'll get paid in those same years after this deal. 

 

This isn't THAT complicated. H

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So what he would've got is $1.5M over 3yr and then 3yrs in arbitration $60M total.  $61.5M and then becomes a free agent.   Around $63.5M for 4 more years.  Braves got him super cheap.  Acuna's set for life, and its not always about the money to everyone, but I think he sold himself short.

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