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Le'Veon Bell 2018 Outlook


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[Automated message: This outlook thread for the 2018 season will be locked on 2019-01-31. Please finish any 2018 discussions here, and take any 2019 outlook discussions to the 2019 outlook thread . If one does not exist, feel free to create one. Thanks!]

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4 hours ago, vmo1059 said:

This thread is so useless. I love it. No one knows what is happening. The amount of condescending posts is ridiculous. Mine included. :)

Well some poster's predictions have proven to be ridiculous, over and over, while others have been correct every time.  At least the Bell people have retreated from "Bell's coming back in week 7 to render Conner instantly useless" and are now saying "no one knows anything."  I guess we can consider that an improvement.

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3 hours ago, DJSatane said:

various folks here keep mentioning "bell value has gone down".... I am confused, how? No injury, still same heavily talented bell, how is his value down?

Bell's value had taken the greatest hit it could possibly take, except a career ending injury: Bell has now proven that he is not 100% committed to playing football.

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5 hours ago, Jaw1 said:

 

You may want to look closer at what Pittsburg offered him. Yes the big numbers of 5 yrs 70mill sound nice but only 10 mill of that was guaranteed, aka that was an insulting offer and Bell would've been better off accepting the franchise tag this year and (assuming Pitt doesn't tag him again) trying his luck on the open market next year. They lowballed him since they have most of the power in this situation with RBs being what they are and the franchise tag eliminating Bell's fall-back options. Bell was never going to win in this situation but he atleast hasn't significantly hurt his prospects of making money in the future and hasn't helped the Steelers (although with Connor playing so well he hasn't hurt them as much as he probably envisioned). 

 

Kaepernick isn't a good comparison at all completely different talents at completely different stages of their career with completely different ramifications, rationales and a whole lot of things. 

 

Le'Veon Bell may have very well cost himself money and he undoubtedly did in the short term. "Betting on oneself" is something players of all sports do when they think they can get more than they are offered. Bell will never "make-back" the money he has lost by sitting out next year, in the sense that his contract won't be bigger due to him having sat out. What sitting out does do for him however, is minimize the chance that this years $15M wasn't the last considerable contract he sees. I think due to minimizing the wear he takes this year sitting out won't net him money but I think it was a good long term move since it makes him more likely to sign a bigger, longer contract next year. If he played this year and didn't get injured he probably would've made more money but my two cents is that he is better off not playing this year and making sure he secures a long term deal rather than play for a team that didn't want to commit to him and gave a rather insulting offer. 

 

Whoa!

 

Someone that did their research! Unicorn of this thread!

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1 hour ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Well some poster's predictions have proven to be ridiculous, over and over, while others have been correct every time.  At least the Bell people have retreated from "Bell's coming back in week 7 to render Conner instantly useless" and are now saying "no one knows anything."  I guess we can consider that an improvement.

 *pats self on back...lol.    Atta guy Sharky.  

 

Not sold on the whole-   “Bell isn’t committed to playing football.”   His behavior is in line with the changing view of players and contracts leaguewide.    Players view themselves- rightly so- as perishable goods with only so much in the bottle.   

 

I have no problem with Pitt excercising their leverage or with Le’Veon responding in kind.  I do have a problem with Bell misleading teammates- but whether that costs him is TBD.  

 

It only takes one team to fall in love...and there’s a lot of bad decision makers in the NFL.  You don’t become the Raiders overnight. :lol:  

 

 

 

 

 

 

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45 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

 *pats self on back...lol.    Atta guy Sharky.  

 

Not sold on the whole-   “Bell isn’t committed to playing football.”   His behavior is in line with the changing view of players and contracts leaguewide.    Players view themselves- rightly so- as perishable goods with only so much in the bottle.   

 

I have no problem with Pitt excercising their leverage or with Le’Veon responding in kind.  I do have a problem with Bell misleading teammates- but whether that costs him is TBD.  

 

It only takes one team to fall in love...and there’s a lot of bad decision makers in the NFL.  You don’t become the Raiders overnight. :lol:  

 

It's a pretty ridiculous statement. He's making a business decision. We can all debate whether he handled it the best way to maximize his future earnings, and we'll likely find out in 2019, but it has nothing to do with his commitment to football. 

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30 minutes ago, owenmills said:

 

It's a pretty ridiculous statement. He's making a business decision. We can all debate whether he handled it the best way to maximize his future earnings, and we'll likely find out in 2019, but it has nothing to do with his commitment to football. 

Who said he wasn’t 100% committed to football? 

 

3 hours ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Bell's value had taken the greatest hit it could possibly take, except a career ending injury: Bell has now proven that he is not 100% committed to playing football.

I disagree 

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7 hours ago, DJSatane said:

various folks here keep mentioning "bell value has gone down".... I am confused, how? No injury, still same heavily talented bell, how is his value down?

 

"Elite" value is based on him being seen as an elite, irreplaceable talent. 

 

He's a versatile back, able to run between the tackles, fat enough to hit the edge, and extremely competent as a receiver either out of the backfield or split out wide. And he's a good pass blocker. 

 

So he had the perception of being extremely hard to replace. 

 

And then Conner replaced him... Quite well. 

 

It makes other teams consider that much of Bell's success might have been due to the system, OL, having a great QB and receivers around him to take the defense's attention, and less due to him being an irreplaceable talent. 

 

As such, his value very well might have decreased. 

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51 minutes ago, bwarbiany said:

 

"Elite" value is based on him being seen as an elite, irreplaceable talent. 

 

He's a versatile back, able to run between the tackles, fat enough to hit the edge, and extremely competent as a receiver either out of the backfield or split out wide. And he's a good pass blocker. 

 

So he had the perception of being extremely hard to replace. 

 

And then Conner replaced him... Quite well. 

 

It makes other teams consider that much of Bell's success might have been due to the system, OL, having a great QB and receivers around him to take the defense's attention, and less due to him being an irreplaceable talent. 

 

As such, his value very well might have decreased. 

 

 

yeah that's not how NFL coaches evaluate elite talent, just because another rb plugs in and produces doesnt mean he is an elite talent.

NFL players are talented by definition which is a reason why many coaches view the rb slot as fungible and plug and play

Coaches look at the talent and the determine how a player gives them multiple options  and can create multiple mismatches.

Maybe the coaching staff is using  less of the playbook than they would have with Bell. maybe in clutch situations they would have called certain plays designed for Bell. 

Conner is not the 1st Pitt rb to produce at a high level in the offense, Dangelo did the same a few years ago in replacement of Bell. 

it's a bit too simplistic to look at boxscores/stats and say rb x did the same as rb y therefore rb x is just as talented. 

I am a firm believer that situation trumps talent in the rb position but there are times when talent makes the key difference.

 

The Steelers are 4-2-1 and not a lock to win their division so who knows what the Bell playing effect may have been, the same, better or worse but I doubt if teams looking for a rb with his skill sets next season are going to think he has LESS value.

 

Fact, if the steelers thought Bell was a less than elite talent they would not have exclusive tagged him 2yrs in a row which obligates them to pay him the min avg of the top 5 in the position.

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1 hour ago, bwarbiany said:

 

"Elite" value is based on him being seen as an elite, irreplaceable talent. 

 

He's a versatile back, able to run between the tackles, fat enough to hit the edge, and extremely competent as a receiver either out of the backfield or split out wide. And he's a good pass blocker. 

 

So he had the perception of being extremely hard to replace. 

 

And then Conner replaced him... Quite well. 

 

It makes other teams consider that much of Bell's success might have been due to the system, OL, having a great QB and receivers around him to take the defense's attention, and less due to him being an irreplaceable talent. 

 

As such, his value very well might have decreased. 

May be more true now than ever.

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Name me another NFL player who voluntarily sat out of football for a year, then came back and had to play for something more than peanuts.  I'll wait.

 

And Carson Palmer to the Raiders does not count, because Hue.

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Just now, SharkSwimmer said:

Name me another NFL player who voluntarily sat out of football for a year, then came back and had to play for something more than peanuts.  I'll wait.

 

And Carson Palmer to the Raiders does not count, because Hue.

 

 That's actually funny, give an example to prove you wrong but you won't accept the example that you can actually think of that proves you wrong?  :lol:

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3 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Name me another NFL player who voluntarily sat out of football for a year, then came back and had to play for something more than peanuts.  I'll wait.

 

And Carson Palmer to the Raiders does not count, because Hue.

 

 

You are basically asking a question that you know is just rhetroical.

How about this question instead:

 

How many starting NFL players in their prime are paid in the top 5 of their position voluntarily sit for a season?

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3 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

 That's actually funny, give an example to prove you wrong but you won't accept the example that you can actually think of that proves you wrong?  :lol:

Well Palmer did not sit out an entire year.  And he was a QB.  And he didn't manuever to block a trade.  And Hue is, thankfully, no longer employed by any NFL team.

 

So, no, that example does not prove me wrong.  But it did give me a free shot at Hue.  So I took it.  Sue me.

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1 minute ago, urban2014 said:

What example did you give? 

 

 it's a rhetorical question my friend so why bother trying to answer it.

Answer this  for me then,

How many starting NFL players in their prime are paid in the top 5 of their position voluntarily sit for a season?

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2 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

 

You are basically asking a question that you know is just rhetroical.

How about this question instead:

 

How many starting NFL players in their prime are paid in the top 5 of their position voluntarily sit for a season?

That is a great question.  Ricky Williams is the only one I can think of.  Bell's decision on how to handle things this year is close to unprecedented.

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7 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Name me another NFL player who voluntarily sat out of football for a year, then came back and had to play for something more than peanuts.  I'll wait.

 

And Carson Palmer to the Raiders does not count, because Hue.

 

Brett Favre.

 

After 2007, Favre took a year off from playing professional-level football, and came back with the Vikings in 2009. Guaranteed 12 million the first year, and I think 13 million the following year. 

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1 minute ago, Brotherbock said:

 

Brett Favre.

 

After 2007, Favre took a year off from playing professional-level football, and came back with the Vikings in 2009. Guaranteed 12 million the first year, and I think 13 million the following year. 

Except that he played for the Jets in 2008.  Har har.  Actually lol.

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2 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

That is a great question.  Ricky Williams is the only one I can think of.  Bell's play this year is close to unprecedented.

 

 

from the little i understand about Ricky Williams he left the NFL because he was about to fail another drug test so he beat them to the punch by retiring. i also don't know what he was being paid

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38 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

 

yeah that's not how NFL coaches evaluate elite talent, just because another rb plugs in and produces doesnt mean he is an elite talent.

NFL players are talented by definition which is a reason why many coaches view the rb slot as fungible and plug and play

Coaches look at the talent and the determine how a player gives them multiple options  and can create multiple mismatches.

 

 

Agreed. Coaches do a lot more than just look at stat sheets. They need to determine how a specific player will perform in their own system, with the offensive line they have, with the other offensive weapons they have, etc.

 

Bell is an extremely versatile back. He doesn't telegraph play call to a defense. A lot of other backs in the league do. Henry/Lewis, Michel/White, Morris/Breida, etc. While offensive coordinators mix things up just enough to make it not 100%, an opposing defense knows tendencies based on personnel and alignment. A back like Bell can be a true three-down workhorse, and obviously will be valuable to any team.

 

The question is how valuable? That will determine how much he is worth. Is he as valuable as a Gurley or a DJ? Bell thinks so. But prior to 2018, it looked like Bell was the engine that made the Pittsburgh offense go. After seeing Conner, it looks like Bell--who is a true three-down back--might have some of his value diminished as a product of the system. It's not that it diminishes his talent, it's that it makes it harder for him to justify that he's as special as he looked before. 

 

Bell wants Gurley money or more. I'm guessing that the emergence of Conner will make it impossible for him to get that much. He'll still get a big contract like he wants, IMHO, but his value would have been higher if he'd been allowed to negotiate this with a team in preseason 2018 than in preseason 2019 after the emergence of Conner. 

 

(FYI, 400+ touches in 2018 might have torpedoed his value, so it's still possible the value of his next contract after sitting out is higher than his value would have been if he had played in 2018.)

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Just now, dashoe said:

 

 

from the little i understand about Ricky Williams he left the NFL because he was about to fail another drug test so he beat them to the punch by retiring

Yeah.  But SURELY that is not what Bell has done.  It's not like Bell has previously been suspended for drug use multiple times...oh wait.

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