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2019 ADP


kidtwentytwo
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3 hours ago, Dirty Little Birdie said:

@taobball when should we be expecting you're top 200? looking forward to it...

 

End February / Beginning of March. Detailed questions can find their way to my PM box. It'll be mentioned in my Signature when it's finished. I am actively working on it. 

 

3 hours ago, WahooManiac said:

Just at a glance,  seems incredibly high on Whit. 

 

It's higher than I am, which is significant, but I don't get why after last year Whit and Trea are viewed so astronomically differently. .304 12 HRs / 45 SBs for Whit, .271 19 HRs / 43 SBs for Trea. 

 

Whit is probably my favorite SB target in drafts right now. His age is a bit of a concern but he ran excellent last year. Love the BA, and many seem to be pushing him down in drafts. 

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9 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

End February / Beginning of March. Detailed questions can find their way to my PM box. It'll be mentioned in my Signature when it's finished. I am actively working on it. 

 

 

It's higher than I am, which is significant, but I don't get why after last year Whit and Trea are viewed so astronomically differently. .304 12 HRs / 45 SBs for Whit, .271 19 HRs / 43 SBs for Trea. 

 

Whit is probably my favorite SB target in drafts right now. His age is a bit of a concern but he ran excellent last year. Love the BA, and many seem to be pushing him down in drafts. 

 

Shouldve said this also more directly: im a big “steals in 5x5 Guy,” as in I love getting a guy late, but what I really want to do is build a team that competes in SBs without having to sacrifice around the board. Having said that, I think Trea Turner is way overpriced.

 

Like I’ve had him there for years. But he didn’t attempt nearly as many steals last year under new management. I mean I think he might’ve attempted fewer steals last year in 162 games than he did the previous year in 98.

 

The upside is still there of course, but the % chance Trea Turner shows a true outlier season, like .280/20 alongside 60-80 SBs, took a huge hit imo this past year. There’s a big— huge— difference between 50 Attempts per Season and 100 Attempts per Season, and Turners attempts rate went down that drastically per 162 games this past season. 

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He had a very clear strategy. He drafted marte and whit. Then went power hitters for 6 straight rounds after.

Trea, Altuve, Whit and Marte all provide a scarce stat line. The big time 30+ SB upside after them come with BA risk (Villar, Mondesi) or negative HR/RBI value (Gordon, M Smith)

I prefer getting a bunch of the 10-20 SB guys..but i get what he was doing.

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Declining attempts is not that surprising imo. I think teams are realizing that steals are just not that valuable when every single hitter in a lineup hits 20+ HRs per year. And when the DH is adopted in the NL we can probably expect even fewer stolen bases attempts/opportunity.

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  • 3 weeks later...
6 minutes ago, Dirty Little Birdie said:

are there any "expert" top 200s that you guys put more stock into than others? who's do you guys like going by when its crunch time?

taobball

brockpapersizer

Edited by jfazz23
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17 minutes ago, Dirty Little Birdie said:

are there any "expert" top 200s that you guys put more stock into than others? who's do you guys like going by when its crunch time?

 

I like the consensus rankings which average together all of the experts...several research studies have shown that in the long term the a group of experts will outperform any individual expert in any sort of prediction picking.

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18 minutes ago, Dirty Little Birdie said:

are there any "expert" top 200s that you guys put more stock into than others? who's do you guys like going by when its crunch time?

Joe Musgrove. Just look at that fpk and swk.

 

You can jump his ADP 30 spots and he’s still a great value. I have him over Archer and Eovaldi. 

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11 minutes ago, Magoo said:

Joe Musgrove. Just look at that fpk and swk.

 

You can jump his ADP 30 spots and he’s still a great value. I have him over Archer and Eovaldi. 

 

i think he meant  which fantasy baseball writer's opinion do you value the most.

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1 hour ago, Dirty Little Birdie said:

are there any "expert" top 200s that you guys put more stock into than others? who's do you guys like going by when its crunch time?

The top few on Fantasy Pros from the year before usually.  Right now that would be Nick Mariano and Scott Pianowski. I was shocked yesterday to see them both put Story at #10 in their rankings.

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NFBC ADP take from only drafts that occurred the past 2 weeks or so...

 

1  Mike Trout LAA OF 1.15 1 2   101    
2  Mookie Betts BOS OF 1.89 1 3   101    
3  Jose Ramirez CLE 3B 4.27 1 8   101    
4  Max Scherzer WAS P 5.01 2 10   101    
5  J.D. Martinez BOS OF 5.32 3 10   101    
6  Christian Yelich MLW OF 6.62 3 16   101    
7  Nolan Arenado COL 3B 7.38 3 14   101    
8  Trea Turner WAS SS 8.05 3 16   101    
9  Ronald Acuna ATL OF 8.13 3 17   101    
10  Jacob deGrom NYM P 10.99 5 20   101    
11  Alex Bregman HOU 3B, SS 13.37 5 22   101    
12  Jose Altuve HOU 2B 14.24 5 24   101    
13  Javier Baez CHC 2B, SS, 3B 14.73 2 25   101    
14  Chris Sale BOS P 14.74 5 30   101    
15  Francisco Lindor CLE SS 15.08 8 25   101    
16  Aaron Judge NYY OF 15.10 8 25   101    
17  Trevor Story COL SS 16.92 8 28   101    
18  Bryce Harper PHI OF 18.65 8 28   101    
19  Paul Goldschmidt STL 1B 18.78 11 27   101    
20  Manny Machado SD SS 18.78 10 30   101    
21  Giancarlo Stanton NYY OF 21.07 10 32   101    
22  Justin Verlander HOU P 21.21 11 30   101    
23  Freddie Freeman ATL 1B 21.45 13 30   101    
24  Corey Kluber CLE P 25.35 13 35   101    
25  Gerrit Cole HOU P 25.56 16 37   101    
26  Aaron Nola PHI P 25.66 17 36   101    
27  Charlie Blackmon COL OF 26.72 13 41   101    
28  Andrew Benintendi BOS OF 28.94 20 38   101    
29  Whit Merrifield KC 2B, OF 29.94 21 43   101    
30  Blake Snell TB P 30.81 19 50   101    
31  Kris Bryant CHC 3B, OF 32.61 22 43   101    
32  Trevor Bauer CLE P 33.11 22 48   101    
33  Juan Soto WAS OF 33.50 16 48   101    
34  Luis Severino NYY P 34.37 20 59   101    
35  Anthony Rizzo CHC 1B 36.93 18 56   101    
36  Carlos Carrasco CLE P 37.48 26 53   101    
37  Starling Marte PIT OF 38.65 25 53   101    
38  Walker Buehler LAD P 39.35 14 56   101    
39  Rhys Hoskins PHI OF 40.19 26 53   101    
40  Noah Syndergaard NYM P 40.78 25 62   101    
41  Adalberto Mondesi KC SS 40.90 25 64   101    
42  Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. TOR 3B 40.94 20 58   101    
43  Anthony Rendon WAS 3B 42.11 25 54   101    
44  J.T. Realmuto PHI C 44.38 30 59   101    
45  Cody Bellinger LAD 1B, OF 44.83 29 62   101    
46  Khris Davis OAK UT 44.99 20 79   101    
47  Xander Bogaerts BOS SS 48.48 37 59   101    
48  Carlos Correa HOU SS 49.73 30 73   101    
49  Patrick Corbin WAS P 50.14 32 67   101    
50  Edwin Diaz NYM P 51.66 38 73   101  
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1 hour ago, kidtwentytwo said:

NFBC ADP take from only drafts that occurred the past 2 weeks or so...

 

1  Mike Trout LAA OF 1.15 1 2   101    
2  Mookie Betts BOS OF 1.89 1 3   101    
3  Jose Ramirez CLE 3B 4.27 1 8   101    
4  Max Scherzer WAS P 5.01 2 10   101    
5  J.D. Martinez BOS OF 5.32 3 10   101    
6  Christian Yelich MLW OF 6.62 3 16   101    
7  Nolan Arenado COL 3B 7.38 3 14   101    
8  Trea Turner WAS SS 8.05 3 16   101    
9  Ronald Acuna ATL OF 8.13 3 17   101    
10  Jacob deGrom NYM P 10.99 5 20   101    
11  Alex Bregman HOU 3B, SS 13.37 5 22   101    
12  Jose Altuve HOU 2B 14.24 5 24   101    
13  Javier Baez CHC 2B, SS, 3B 14.73 2 25   101    
14  Chris Sale BOS P 14.74 5 30   101    
15  Francisco Lindor CLE SS 15.08 8 25   101    
16  Aaron Judge NYY OF 15.10 8 25   101    
17  Trevor Story COL SS 16.92 8 28   101    
18  Bryce Harper PHI OF 18.65 8 28   101    
19  Paul Goldschmidt STL 1B 18.78 11 27   101    
20  Manny Machado SD SS 18.78 10 30   101    
21  Giancarlo Stanton NYY OF 21.07 10 32   101    
22  Justin Verlander HOU P 21.21 11 30   101    
23  Freddie Freeman ATL 1B 21.45 13 30   101    
24  Corey Kluber CLE P 25.35 13 35   101    
25  Gerrit Cole HOU P 25.56 16 37   101    
26  Aaron Nola PHI P 25.66 17 36   101    
27  Charlie Blackmon COL OF 26.72 13 41   101    
28  Andrew Benintendi BOS OF 28.94 20 38   101    
29  Whit Merrifield KC 2B, OF 29.94 21 43   101    
30  Blake Snell TB P 30.81 19 50   101    
31  Kris Bryant CHC 3B, OF 32.61 22 43   101    
32  Trevor Bauer CLE P 33.11 22 48   101    
33  Juan Soto WAS OF 33.50 16 48   101    
34  Luis Severino NYY P 34.37 20 59   101    
35  Anthony Rizzo CHC 1B 36.93 18 56   101    
36  Carlos Carrasco CLE P 37.48 26 53   101    
37  Starling Marte PIT OF 38.65 25 53   101    
38  Walker Buehler LAD P 39.35 14 56   101    
39  Rhys Hoskins PHI OF 40.19 26 53   101    
40  Noah Syndergaard NYM P 40.78 25 62   101    
41  Adalberto Mondesi KC SS 40.90 25 64   101    
42  Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. TOR 3B 40.94 20 58   101    
43  Anthony Rendon WAS 3B 42.11 25 54   101    
44  J.T. Realmuto PHI C 44.38 30 59   101    
45  Cody Bellinger LAD 1B, OF 44.83 29 62   101    
46  Khris Davis OAK UT 44.99 20 79   101    
47  Xander Bogaerts BOS SS 48.48 37 59   101    
48  Carlos Correa HOU SS 49.73 30 73   101    
49  Patrick Corbin WAS P 50.14 32 67   101    
50  Edwin Diaz NYM P 51.66 38 73   101  

Some bad stuff there...machado is too low and benitendi is too high for starters

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5 minutes ago, Dr. Whom said:

Some bad stuff there...machado is too low and benitendi is too high for starters

Disagree on the Machado part. I have no problem with benintendi being high as well, but yeh -- I'd drop him a few. 

I think the rankings are far from 'bad stuff'. I'm pleased with those rankings and further -- love Yahoo's rankings this year. Better efforts are being put into them. 

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I want to point out one thing that is peeving me this offseason. I listen to some podcasts, namely "The Sleeper and The bust" (HIGHLY recommended) and I obviously read a lot on here and other ranking sites.

Alot of times people state or read that so and so is a GREAT pick at so and so. For example: "Judge is a great pick at 20 and should be going higher" or "Merrifield at 16 is a reach" or the alternate "Merrifield at 16 is a good pick". 

Obviously, what we have here is all personal preference, BUT this year in specific we have SO MUCH talent in the top, say, 40, that it is completely unfair to say that one of them is a 'steal' at so and so pick or one of them is a bad pick.

After Mike Trout and Mookie Betts (1 and 2) you can make a pick for at least 12-20 guys in the next 14 to 22 rankings. You could have Aaron Judge at 3 or Aaron Judge at 20 and IMO that is perfectly fine. It's not a steal to get Judge at 20, and it's not a terrible pick to take Judge at 3. That's just how much talent is on the board right now. 

So when I hear analysts say "oh what a steal, I got Bryce Harper at 15 and Giancarlo Stanton at 16" I think about how silly of a statement that is. The first 14 guys picked were equally as deserving at the spot and it boils down to how each person is creating their team. 

Sorry, just a small peeve of mine this year -- there's just so much damn talent on the board and so many ways you can go with it. 

Kind of why I completely disagreed with Dr Whom above. It's just unfair to say Machado should be higher. Higher than who? Should he be above Harper, Story, Goldschmidt? etc.

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I was thinking Fantasy Pros.

when clicking on any specific player's profile I see these in line.

Quote

 Overview - Notes - News - Articles - Rankings - Projections - Stats - Game Log - Schedule

 

it has rankings, but I noticed numbers are different for ADP.

for Andrew McCutchen it has these for top 5 rankings..

Quote
Nick Mariano RotoBaller ALL #115 -10 #1
Scott Pianowski Yahoo! Sports ALL #97 +8 #4
Andrew Gould FantasyPros ALL #100 +5 #5
Jason Johnson Understanding Fantasy Baseball ALL #87 +18 #6
Tyler Thompson Fantasy Six Pack ALL #105 0 #8

 

if you manually take out rankings and put in adp it will give the players ADP.

McCutchen rankings to adp would be..

https://www.fantasypros.com/mlb/rankings/andrew-mccutchen.php

changed to

https://www.fantasypros.com/mlb/adp/andrew-mccutchen.php

 

for ADP it gives..

Quote

Consensus     ESPN    NFBC    RT Sports

numbers will be green for undervalued, grey for properly valued, and red for over valued.

for Andrew McCutchen that would be..

Quote
Consensus ESPN NFBC RT Sports
# 132 # 104 # 144 # 147

 

 

are the numbers for Rankings the same as the players ADP for whoever ranked the player?

 

 

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22 minutes ago, cs3 said:

I mean this is obviously not true at all.

Yeah -- I wrote that with very little clarity. What I mean by it is: Each individual a head of, say, Bryce at 15 and Stanton at 16 where perfectly fine with where they were drafted.

Drafting Bryce at 15 and Stanton at 16 is NOT a 'steal' because the 14 people that were drafted ahead of them were not bad picks. Just look at Yahoo's ADP, Harper is at 15 and Stanton is at 18, so it's very realistic that this scenario plays out over and over in drafts. 

At the same time, I would have no problem with a person taking Harper at say 6th overall. Or Stanton at say 8th overall. 

My main point is that the analysts screaming about how much talent there is in the draft this year and then turning around and proclaiming how 'awesome' a certain pariing is or how it is a steal to get so and so here or there are being hypocritical. 

For another hot take: I would not draft Jose Ramirez in the top 10! And I don't think there is a rational argument that one could make to change my mind. It's not so much that Jo-Ram isn't a top player, it's just I love so many other talents in the draft more than him. 

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4 minutes ago, CrypTviLL said:

Yeah -- I wrote that with very little clarity. What I mean by it is: Each individual a head of, say, Bryce at 15 and Stanton at 16 where perfectly fine with where they were drafted.

Drafting Bryce at 15 and Stanton at 16 is NOT a 'steal' because the 14 people that were drafted ahead of them were not bad picks. Just look at Yahoo's ADP, Harper is at 15 and Stanton is at 18, so it's very realistic that this scenario plays out over and over in drafts. 

At the same time, I would have no problem with a person taking Harper at say 6th overall. Or Stanton at say 8th overall. 

My main point is that the analysts screaming about how much talent there is in the draft this year and then turning around and proclaiming how 'awesome' a certain pariing is or how it is a steal to get so and so here or there are being hypocritical. 

For another hot take: I would not draft Jose Ramirez in the top 10! And I don't think there is a rational argument that one could make to change my mind. It's not so much that Jo-Ram isn't a top player, it's just I love so many other talents in the draft more than him. 

There isn't a rational argument for taking 10 guys over Jo Ram. 

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20 minutes ago, Slatykamora said:

There isn't a rational argument for taking 10 guys over Jo Ram. 

I don't necessarily agree with this.  I think there is an argument the Ramirez doesn't return top 10 value.  Do misunderstand me, I'm not saying he's a bad pick at 3 or a steal at 10.  Like an earlier poster said there is an incredible amount of talent at the time.  I don't see a steal or reach in the first 20 picks.  The one's that are saying this are basing it purely off ADP and group think.  

 

For sake of argument I like Bregman over Ramirez.  Doesn't mean I'm right or wrong.  Both are fantastic players and picks no matter where you get them.

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35 minutes ago, Slatykamora said:

There isn't a rational argument for taking 10 guys over Jo Ram. 

Position scarcity, Team build, League type/format, League size, the eligible positions he qualifies at over the various sites. I'll stop there but there's plenty of arguments. 

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48 minutes ago, Bugs bunny said:

Position scarcity, Team build, League type/format, League size, the eligible positions he qualifies at over the various sites. I'll stop there but there's plenty of arguments. 

Rational was more playing off his words.. but disicussions here are for more standard formats. 5x5, OBP, etc etc etc.

Was hoping more someone would take the challenge and explain why they dont believe he is a top 10 player. Im all ears. Just yet to hear a solid arguement that isnt just an overreaction to his 2nd half. Which in a vaccum i find irrational given his last years. Being in his prime, not injured.

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1 minute ago, Slatykamora said:

Rational was more playing off his words.. but disicussions here are for more standard formats. 5x5, OBP, etc etc etc.

Was hoping more someone would take the challenge and explain why they dont believe he is a top 10 player. Im all ears. Just yet to hear a solid arguement that isnt just an overreaction to his 2nd half. Which in a vaccum i find irrational given his last years. Being in his prime, not injured.

For me its just a matter of several other players I like better.  I think he's a fine player but do have concerns about the offense.  I don't think it's nearly the offense we've seen in the past.  Which could limit his at bats.  Don't get me wrong he's fantastic.  I just like Martinez, Scherzer, Judge, Aernado, Bregman, Acuna, Stanton and DeGrom more.  However, everyone in the top 20 are fantastic picks no matter where you get them.

 

As far as falling off in the 2nd half, we just don't know yet.  The sample size is too small.  We really only have two seasons of full time AB's.  In 2017 he was fairly equal 1st and 2nd half.  Last year he fell off a cliff.  I do wonder if he will be pitched to differently this season or if possibly teams figured him out in the 2nd half of last season.  These are real minor concerns but pushes him down just a tick for me.  

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