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Jeff McNeil 2019 Outlook


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Amazing reporting from Rotoworld: Mets manager Mickey Callaway told reporters that the majority of Jeff McNeil's outfield reps will come in the outfield.

Probably because he has no role once everyone is healthy...no way they sit mega-superstars like Lowrie and Frazier for this dude. Those guys put fans in the seats

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Is McNeil seeing a late surge in draft stock or is mostly the same from what people have seen? His price has stayed remarkably low in composites despite positive news from team, injuries to infielders, and having an 1.000 OPS Spring. Seems to still be locked in and reasonably is going to compete for a batting title 🤷🏼‍♂️

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I don't think there's been a huge surge in him because most projections still show single digits hr and modest steals.  I just got him in my auction at $4, which I thought was a bargain.  Undrafted waiver players go for $6, so he's less that replacement cost.

 

I have seen him taken at the very end of Yahoo drafts.

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2 hours ago, taobball said:

Is McNeil seeing a late surge in draft stock or is mostly the same from what people have seen? His price has stayed remarkably low in composites despite positive news from team, injuries to infielders, and having an 1.000 OPS Spring. Seems to still be locked in and reasonably is going to compete for a batting title 🤷🏼‍♂️

🤨🤨🤨

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30 minutes ago, BirdDog20 said:

I don't think there's been a huge surge in him because most projections still show single digits hr and modest steals.  I just got him in my auction at $4, which I thought was a bargain.  Undrafted waiver players go for $6, so he's less that replacement cost.

 

I have seen him taken at the very end of Yahoo drafts.

 

Which is funny because he hit 22 in 2018 between AA-MLB

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I know he hit 22 last year, but I think CBS has him at 8hr and 15 steals.  Something similar with Yahoo.  I think he way outperforms the power numbers.  

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10 minutes ago, BirdDog20 said:

I know he hit 22 last year, but I think CBS has him at 8hr and 15 steals.  Something similar with Yahoo.  I think he way outperforms the power numbers.  

 

+1 if he can find himself a nearly full-time role, with multi-position eligibility that he carries, I think he is very undervalued right now.  He hit his 4th HR of the spring today.  While not indicative that it will translate into the regular season, it is at least a good sign to see him driving the ball.

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11 hours ago, BirdDog20 said:

I know he hit 22 last year, but I think CBS has him at 8hr and 15 steals.  Something similar with Yahoo.  I think he way outperforms the power numbers.  

FWIW ESPN has him projected at 13 HR.

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11 hours ago, taobball said:

 

Which is funny because he hit 22 in 2018 between AA-MLB

Admittedly not a huge MiLB follower (nor do I read up much on swing changes or adjustments) but he hadn't come anywhere close to even double digit HRs before last season - and only hit 3 in the MLB - so that "could" be a reason?

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25 minutes ago, ToO_BaD said:

Admittedly not a huge MiLB follower (nor do I read up much on swing changes or adjustments) but he hadn't come anywhere close to even double digit HRs before last season - and only hit 3 in the MLB - so that "could" be a reason?

He definitely wasn't hyped but this is a textbook "launch angle breakout" in my book. He had a career K-rate in the minors under 10% and busted out in 2018 after two years of health issues and a swing change. I'm super-optimistic and think people are really late on him.

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1 hour ago, Hanghow said:

He definitely wasn't hyped but this is a textbook "launch angle breakout" in my book. He had a career K-rate in the minors under 10% and busted out in 2018 after two years of health issues and a swing change. I'm super-optimistic and think people are really late on him.

Just for the record, I was speaking strictly in terms of the HR output based on the OP I was quoting.  So out of curiosity, what are your HR number projections?  

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12 hours ago, BirdDog20 said:

I know he hit 22 last year, but I think CBS has him at 8hr and 15 steals.  Something similar with Yahoo.  I think he way outperforms the power numbers.  

 

BIG TIME suggestion - NEVER EVER look at ANY sites "projections"; I literally believe it's the most overrated thing that members quote on this board.  Have you ever seen a young player's "projections" go from something like he hit .280/10/50 in 2018 (for instance) to .295/32/98 (or the flip side of that matter)?  Believe it or not players make that leap/jump and those "projections" never accommodate for that.

I like McNeil and think he far surpasses the "projections" of 8 homers and 15 steals - they're simply going off of the playing time he had last year.

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25 minutes ago, ToO_BaD said:

Just for the record, I was speaking strictly in terms of the HR output based on the OP I was quoting.  So out of curiosity, what are your HR number projections?  

Yeah, I was more bouncing off of your comment than agreeing or disagreeing with you, myself. I don't know if he's a huge power guy or gets a ton of stolen bases, which may limit his value in some leagues. I'd still estimate 15-20 HR's with a good number of doubles and triples and a high batting average.

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1 hour ago, IlliniGuy76 said:

 

BIG TIME suggestion - NEVER EVER look at ANY sites "projections"; I literally believe it's the most overrated thing that members quote on this board.  Have you ever seen a young player's "projections" go from something like he hit .280/10/50 in 2018 (for instance) to .295/32/98 (or the flip side of that matter)?  Believe it or not players make that leap/jump and those "projections" never accommodate for that.

I like McNeil and think he far surpasses the "projections" of 8 homers and 15 steals - they're simply going off of the playing time he had last year.

 

I was actually glad CBS had such low projections. It kept the hype down as we rolled through spring training and our keeper / auction draft process.  I picked him up off waivers last year ($6) and was very high on him going into the offseason though the addition of Cano slowed the roll.  We keep 15 and took a chance letting him go back to the draft only to get him back cheaper with an extra year.  

Love his bat control and developing power.  Sneaky sleeper / breakout potential if he can take advantage of early playing time to force their hand.

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The notion this guy has no speed or power can't be more wrong. He had 22 HR and 13 SB last year. Not a world beater but he should definitely be in double digits in both categories. Depending on lineup spot he should have a lot of runs and RBI as well. Should be a 5 category producer this season.

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4 hours ago, ToO_BaD said:

Admittedly not a huge MiLB follower (nor do I read up much on swing changes or adjustments) but he hadn't come anywhere close to even double digit HRs before last season - and only hit 3 in the MLB - so that "could" be a reason?

 

Well that's definitely the reason. And his injuries that cost him the seasons prior definitely concern me. But there's also a realism in the concept of a "Wide-Awake Sleeper." 

 

To me, the point of a Wide-Awake sleeper is someone who could legitimately have the exact same season, should surprise no one, and be a HUGE value on draft day. That is Jeff McNeil incarnate. The price is a factor here. I'm not blowing my wad for him if he got jumped to the top 50 picks. But even with some buzz I think he's going to have an average ADP of ~220 down the stretch.

 

Let's just use McNeil has a good season as a GIVEN for the sake of argument. Like .315 / 15 / 15. One of the most basic arguments you'll hear is.... "Wow, look at what he did in 2018... we uh... really should've expected this." I'm as negative as anyone can possibly be about using minor league stats in a major league projection context. But that's more because base stats like BA have a lot of "bad-defense' BABIP noise and there's not scouting report. 

 

McNeil had 66 Ks in 632 PAs (10.44%) AA-MLB 2018

McNeil had 43 Ks in 384 PAs (10.94%) AA-AAA 2018

 

McNeil had 37 2Bs, 11 3Bs, and 22 HRs AA-MLB 2018

McNeil had 26 2Bs, 5 3Bs, and 19 HRs AA-AAA 2018

 

That's 70 XBHs last year and 66 Ks btw for those keeping score at home.

 

I mean who DOES THAT? Who in our current climate gets more EXTRA BASE HITS than STRIKES OUT? Even in the MAJORS, where his ISO flat-lined, he had 20 XBHs and 24 Ks in 2018. He actually had 6 Triples last year at the MLB level. Imagine if he had 9 HRs instead of 3 HRs and 6 3Bs oh how differently we would treat his 2018. 

 

It's just absurd to me. I don't care about the "HR-Number".

Let's blind resume this bitch (and yes, I know how age works in the minors)

 

Player A:
AA: 9.5% K% | .299 ISO

AAA: 13.3% K% | .232 ISO

Comb: 10.94% K% | .274 ISO

 

Player B:

AA: 10.2% K% | .269 ISO

AAA: 7.8% | .227 ISO

Comb: 9.39% K% | .256 ISO

 

First player is McNeil. If those numbers don't get you out of bed in the morning, you may be playing the wrong game. Because that's mouthwatering. 

 

Player B should be obvious. He's the son of a Hall of Famer presumably making his debut in 2019. 

 

And this is clearly NOT a player comp. But it does kinda show that there's no real reason to ignore Jeff McNeil IMO either. I can buy at a place where even .300 / 10 / 10 is a decent ROI, and .317 / 15 / 20 isn't crazy. 

 

DFS: Fade v. high-speed high-4SFB at first. Need to see if he can handle being overpowered a bit more. 

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Just now, Sully said:

I think someone may have mentioned it earlier, but are we expecting McNeil to have 3B eligibility (YAHOO) in relatively short order or will that take a while?

 

He won't play 2B. He'll play 3B/OF. So probably pretty soon. 

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