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Francisco Lindor 2019 Outlook


Flyman75
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I think he only drops minimally in most drafts. Especially Keeper/Dynasties where he will still be going in the 1st Round.

 

Misses 3 weeks of the season...no big deal.  When he comes back, he'll be giving you HR's, SB's, Runs Scored, with a good average and RBI total.

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2 hours ago, lavaman said:

I think he only drops minimally in most drafts. Especially Keeper/Dynasties where he will still be going in the 1st Round.

 

Misses 3 weeks of the season...no big deal.  When he comes back, he'll be giving you HR's, SB's, Runs Scored, with a good average and RBI total.

 

I agree that in the end he will drop minimally. There will be players in most auctions / drafts willing to bite the bullet in the 8-14 value range. I won't be one of them. Just too risky this high up in the draft. Should also be considered that SS is stacked this year, you aren't getting the premium position value that may have existed in the past.

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1 hour ago, whyamiajetfan said:

where is everyone taking this guy?  was just given #10 spot in one of leagues today.. 10team h2h 6x6 league. do i really pass on Lindor in this spot?

any opinions appreciated 

I’ve got him ranked 11th on my board:

1. Trout 2. Betts 3. Yelich 4. Acuna 5. Turner. 6. Max 7. JD. 8. J Ram 9. Arenado 10. deGrom 11. Lindor 

I play 5x5 roto though.

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I don't think there's really any news out there to be had...just sit and wait. The injury wasn't quite three weeks ago, so we still have some time to go. As was mentioned when the injury happened, there's concern that this could linger if he doesn't play the patient game. 

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1 hour ago, Sidearmer said:

Has there been any injury updates? how is he progressing? Thread has been quiet since the news first broke.

As of yesterday, the 27th, he is fielding ground balls “standing up.” Apparently before he was taking grounders on his knees so this is a step forward.

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On 2/28/2019 at 1:57 AM, whyamiajetfan said:

where is everyone taking this guy?  was just given #10 spot in one of leagues today.. 10team h2h 6x6 league. do i really pass on Lindor in this spot?

any opinions appreciated 

 

This is really more AC forum material because it's a league-specific question, but, to frame this more generally, Lindor should be picked earlier in H2H than in Roto.  H2H is just about making the playoffs, and you are better positioned to afford one player's absence in the early season.  

I would have picked Lindor #3 overall pre-injury.  I'd pick him #9-10 post-injury in H2H.  

You have to remember with Lindor that there is a ton of upside in his BA.  He's been unlucky with BABIP, despite having some speed and despite his HardHit% being on an upwards trajectory.  

There aren't many guys who can go .310 30+/20+ - Lindor is one of them.  Indians offense lost some pieces though.  

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2 hours ago, KilloWertz said:

True, he has the last two seasons, but there's definite potential there for a .300 batting average like he had in his first two seasons.

I mean yes there's potential for that but so is there potential for Judge hitting 55 bombs or Turner stealing 60 bases.

Lindor sold out for power beginning in 2017 when he changed his approach and started hitting 10+% more fly balls. He still young and could grow even more I suppose but as of right now he's either a .275 hitter with 30+ HR power or .300+ hitter with 17-20 power. 

 

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I think we were all expecting he'd be back within first few weeks. The risk is the lingering effect, a la Josh Donaldson 2018. We'll see. Lindor is only worth a 1 if he delivers above average speed. That speed is certainly at risk after the injury.

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2 hours ago, El_Chingon said:

Care to share your sources?

Rotoworld has given that impression for one basically with their recent blurbs about him.  Obviously that's not definitive, nor does anybody know for sure how long he'll be out (even Lindor himself), but things do seem to be progressing nicely.

 

2 hours ago, Ecofolux said:

I mean yes there's potential for that but so is there potential for Judge hitting 55 bombs or Turner stealing 60 bases.

Lindor sold out for power beginning in 2017 when he changed his approach and started hitting 10+% more fly balls. He still young and could grow even more I suppose but as of right now he's either a .275 hitter with 30+ HR power or .300+ hitter with 17-20 power. 

 

You may very well be right.  We'll see.  I was just pointing out that the person may not be entirely wrong.  Lindor is still really young too, so maybe he come close to doing both at some point in his career.

I think at the very least we can all agree on the fact that Lindor is still a great player regardless of the injury, 😀

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23 hours ago, Ecofolux said:

Lindor doesn't hit .310, he hits .270's

 

10 hours ago, Ecofolux said:

Lindor sold out for power beginning in 2017 when he changed his approach and started hitting 10+% more fly balls. He still young and could grow even more I suppose but as of right now he's either a .275 hitter with 30+ HR power or .300+ hitter with 17-20 power. 

 

Your point is well-taken regarding his FB% and selling out for power.  But I don't think we can explain away Lindor's relatively low BABIP (.279) on that basis alone.  Indeed, i've seen most estimates for lindor's xBA hover in the .286-.290 range.  maybe .310 was a bit high for assuming 30+ hr, but .300+ 30+ is certainly not out of the question.  His fb% dropped slightly from 2017 to 2018, so maybe this is something that continues to go down marginally.  

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2 hours ago, Rainyy said:

Your point is well-taken regarding his FB% and selling out for power.  But I don't think we can explain away Lindor's relatively low BABIP (.279) on that basis alone.  Indeed, i've seen most estimates for lindor's xBA hover in the .286-.290 range.  maybe .310 was a bit high for assuming 30+ hr, but .300+ 30+ is certainly not out of the question.  His fb% dropped slightly from 2017 to 2018, so maybe this is something that continues to go down marginally. 

I hear ya about his xBA and I love using saber-metrics too but he's had nearly 1,500 plate appearances and he's sported a very real average of .275

People complain about JoRam's down 2nd half, look at Lindor's.... he hit .256. Frankly, remove his scorching hot May and you got a .257 hitter on the year. I just don't see him hitting north of .285 with this approach. Also I'm highly suspect of his SBs.

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