Jump to content
NBC Sports Edge Forums

Bryce Harper 2019 Outlook


Recommended Posts

Just now, tonycpsu said:

 

Am I to interpret "a couple of years" as being not just 2018 and a small fraction of 2019, but including 2017?  If so, care to explain what about his 2017 season (other than being hurt and missing ~40 games) during which he hit .319/.413/.595 with a 155 wRC+ was problematic.

If this continues this year it will now be 3 out of the last 4 years. The book is out on him and he has been pitched differently and it seems to be working. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 623
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

Lol I understand some of the criticisms of Bryce and his approach, but to pretend he’s not completely driven to be great and that he’s the “kind of guy who would settle for sitting on the bench for 13

Posted Images

I hope pitchers keep throwing that meat over the plate. He’s going to punish them soon enough. Anyone see his knee injury? Is he going to be okay? I saw he stayed in the game. A day off or two would be nice, but I don’t want to see him on the IL

Link to post
Share on other sites

What jumps off the page to me looking at his peripherals is the decreasing contact on pitches in the zone over the years.

Zone Contact% / Contact %

2015 (MVP): 84.4% / 75.4%

2016: 87.4% / 79.2%

2017: 85.1% / 74.8%

2018: 79.6% / 71.1%

2019: 77.3% / 66.7%

 

League average for zone contact % is about 85% in each of these seasons.  League avg for contact % is ~77%.  His swinging strike rate is up to 15% so far this year, which is 20th worst in MLB to date and in the company of Teoscar Hernandez, Randal Grichuk, Jorge Soler, Byron Buxton, Joey Gallo.

 

Harper is obviously not a player that needs to make a ton of contact to produce at an elite level - he had a below avg contact rate in his 2015 MVP campaign.  But he is trending downward as you can see above ever since 2016 and a contact rate on pitches in the zone that is almost 8 points below average is a pretty glaring red flag.  That's not to say it can't be fixed, but I do wonder what is behind that.  Have pitchers found a hole or is this mechanical?

 

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, sportsfreak2744 said:

 That's not to say it can't be fixed, but I do wonder what is behind that.  Have pitchers found a hole or is this mechanical?

 

The at bat in the 6th inning is all you need to see to understand his trouble this year. He can't hit the FB, especially if it is 95mph or greater. I don't know if he's not seeing the ball, or simply can't catch up to it due to timing being off. But SP can see that right now you can challenge him with nothing but FB and get him to swing and miss.

Link to post
Share on other sites
46 minutes ago, High&Inside said:

The at bat in the 6th inning is all you need to see to understand his trouble this year. He can't hit the FB, especially if it is 95mph or greater. I don't know if he's not seeing the ball, or simply can't catch up to it due to timing being off. But SP can see that right now you can challenge him with nothing but FB and get him to swing and miss.

Looks like a timing issue - There's some loss of reaction time maybe which is odd since he's still supposedly in his prime.  But he looks late , maybe he's not anticipating pitches quickly enough .  I mean there's no deception on most of those.  Those pitches were straight fastballs

Edited by JetsAwesome
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, High&Inside said:

The at bat in the 6th inning is all you need to see to understand his trouble this year. He can't hit the FB, especially if it is 95mph or greater. I don't know if he's not seeing the ball, or simply can't catch up to it due to timing being off. But SP can see that right now you can challenge him with nothing but FB and get him to swing and miss.

 

I saw you posted that he is hitting .250 on pitches 95mph+.  Curious where you found that, but also, that doesn't seem like an issue to me...  .250 on 95+ seems at least above average.

Link to post
Share on other sites
34 minutes ago, sportsfreak2744 said:

 

I saw you posted that he is hitting .250 on pitches 95mph+.  Curious where you found that, but also, that doesn't seem like an issue to me...  .250 on 95+ seems at least above average.

So I heard it on the radio. But here's an article from last year where the same struggle occurred. It's more troubling that the same struggle is occurring 2 years in a row. The timing of the article was late May as well.

"A couple of pitchers have commented to me that they believe for the first time that you can blow a fastball by Harper. That might be just brave talk, but it is true that Harper is hitting just .257 against fastballs this year. That's nuts for one of the great fastball hitters in the game. He hit .363 on fastballs last year and .365 in his NL MVP Award-winning season of 2015"

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.mlb.com/amp/news/bryce-harper-s-numbers-tell-two-stories-c278797410.html

 

Edited by High&Inside
  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm still not going to panic until hitting weather... sometimes even the 2007-2011 teams would get off to slow offensive starts (this team collectively isn't even off to one of those) but once the bank starts heating up it becomes a launching pad. I'm also learning my lesson from last year when I moved on from Matt Carpenter too early and he got off to a way worse start.

Edited by XxxOilOverloadxxX
Link to post
Share on other sites

He's the most overrated player in baseball.  You'd think teams would learn not to sign guys to these monster, paid till your 40, lifetime contracts.  The Phillies won't go broke paying the .220 hitting Harper $27m per for the next 12 1/2 years, but  they certainly won't like it.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Bryce did hit a warning track shot, maybe he’s heating up. And as far as putting fans in seats he’s more likely to turn fans off and make them want to stay home and do yard work if he keeps this up. 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.


×
×
  • Create New...