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Bryce Harper 2019 Outlook


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3 hours ago, shakestreet said:

I can expect we’ll knew those numbers would be there come September. 

lol not if you read the last few pages. people acting like he's on a JRam-esque slump. He might not be a 50-hr guy but his floor is magnificently high, especially in that lineup and in OBP/OPS leagues. He was a top 25 player in my OPS league in 2017...where he missed 50+ games. Let that stat sink in...missed 50 games and still top 25!

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Lol I understand some of the criticisms of Bryce and his approach, but to pretend he’s not completely driven to be great and that he’s the “kind of guy who would settle for sitting on the bench for 13

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11 hours ago, JetsAwesome said:

wow no comments about last night's slumpbuster game? Even with the K's the dude has quietly been hitting the ball better over the last 2-3 weeks.

Part 2. 

Looks like our guy is catching fire!!!!

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  • 3 weeks later...

[...]

 

@travis_sawchick Bryce Harper has basically become 2018 Joey Gallo, and Gallo has become 2017 Harper ... Still a lot of baseball to be played, but their recent career trajectories are interesting and opposite

Edited by tonycpsu
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Yeah I’ve defended this guy all season but it’s a joke at this point. Can’t hit a fastball, swings and misses at EVERYTHING in the strike zone. Can’t hit outside half of the plate. Bad swing and a miss for me in the 2nd round. Let’s all just hope he blows up yeah? 

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16 minutes ago, bjvance5 said:

im just praying he has an MVP 2nd half and we can all forget about this first half. Dude has been terrible ADP value. Really regretting picking him up right now.

This is the prayer of Bryce owners each year. The hopes that he reverts to that MVP season. It’s tantalizing. That said if you’re in a standard league that doesn’t use OBP, he is definitely horribly over ranked/over drafted. Some fun—any guesses as to these two similar players? Both active, number of seasons in parentheses:

Career 162 game averages-

Bryce- .277/106/32/92/13 (8 years)
(A) .268/95/28/89/14 (12 years)
(B) .268/115/33/90/11 (6 years)

 

Edited by Backdoor Slider
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38 minutes ago, Backdoor Slider said:

This is the prayer of Bryce owners each year. The hopes that he reverts to that MVP season. It’s tantalizing. That said if you’re in a standard league that doesn’t use OBP, he is definitely horribly over ranked/over drafted. Some fun—any guesses as to these two similar players? Both active, number of seasons in parentheses:

Career 162 game averages-

Bryce- .277/106/32/92/13 (8 years)
(A) .268/95/28/89/14 (12 years)
(B) .268/115/33/90/11 (6 years)

 

 

Cutch and I was gonna say Betts for the second one but the SB's are too low.. 

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44 minutes ago, Backdoor Slider said:

This is the prayer of Bryce owners each year. The hopes that he reverts to that MVP season. It’s tantalizing. That said if you’re in a standard league that doesn’t use OBP, he is definitely horribly over ranked/over drafted. Some fun—any guesses as to these two similar players? Both active, number of seasons in parentheses:

Career 162 game averages-

Bryce- .277/106/32/92/13 (8 years)
(A) .268/95/28/89/14 (12 years)
(B) .268/115/33/90/11 (6 years)

 

I think listing out per-game averages would be helpful as well, because that's what people are ultimately buying when they think of Harper. Obviously his injury risk is a huge consideration, but a guaranteed 162-game season from Harper is probably top 5 in the majors - even if he's been crap lately. 

 

edit: nvm I just realized you used 162-game averages so it's the same thing. I regress!

Edited by Jyeatbvg
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1 minute ago, Fantasy Baseball Geek said:

 

Cutch and I was gonna say Betts for the second one but the SB's are too low.. 

Averages much too low to be McCutchen or Betts. Those two are Justin Upton and George Springer. For reference-

Cutch- .286/98/24/85/19

Betts- .298/121/28/96/27

So more often than not, guys are drafting Bryce in the 1st when they could get Springer or JUp rounds later and get similar production most seasons.

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Just now, Backdoor Slider said:

Averages much too low to be McCutchen or Betts. Those two are Justin Upton and George Springer. For reference-

Cutch- .286/98/24/85/19

Betts- .298/121/28/96/27

So more often than not, guys are drafting Bryce in the 1st when they could get Springer or JUp rounds later and get similar production most seasons.

 

1000% true but almost everyone taken in the first few rounds are taken there because of their potential. Bryce will continue to get more love than Springer because his ceiling could be higher. I'm not a Bryce guy, I do own him in a keeper league(can't remember how I ended up with him) but that's because I've never believed in the hype. So far he's only proven me wrong once in his career. I guess that can be said for a lot of guys taken in the 1st two or 3 rounds of the draft though. More proof that the later rounds are so crucial in fantasy baseball. 

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3 minutes ago, Fantasy Baseball Geek said:

 

1000% true but almost everyone taken in the first few rounds are taken there because of their potential. Bryce will continue to get more love than Springer because his ceiling could be higher. I'm not a Bryce guy, I do own him in a keeper league(can't remember how I ended up with him) but that's because I've never believed in the hype. So far he's only proven me wrong once in his career. I guess that can be said for a lot of guys taken in the 1st two or 3 rounds of the draft though. More proof that the later rounds are so crucial in fantasy baseball. 

Agreed. I’m not a Bryce basher. I’ve often defended him. And you’re spot on, he’s the only one of the 3 who has the ability to go .330/40, so he deserves to go higher. But this “realization” is why I dealt him in April in my keeper league. I’d bet he’s got at least one more MVP type season in him, especially in that lineup/park. But it’s a tough gamble figuring out which, as there’s a decent gap between his ceiling and floor.

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6 minutes ago, Fantasy Baseball Geek said:

 

1000% true but almost everyone taken in the first few rounds are taken there because of their potential. Bryce will continue to get more love than Springer because his ceiling could be higher. I'm not a Bryce guy, I do own him in a keeper league(can't remember how I ended up with him) but that's because I've never believed in the hype. So far he's only proven me wrong once in his career. I guess that can be said for a lot of guys taken in the 1st two or 3 rounds of the draft though. More proof that the later rounds are so crucial in fantasy baseball. 

Barring a few exceptions the early rounds won't lose you championships but the later rounds will win you championships. I find the latter third of drafts so much more exciting than the earlier rounds.

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Mike Petriello: The book is out on how to pitch to Bryce Harper

Quote

Here's the four-step plan opponents are working from in order to keep Harper down.

1) No more crushable first-pitch fastballs.
2) Before two strikes, more breaking and off-speed pitches.
3) On two strikes, here come the fastballs ...
4) ... and especially more high fastballs.

 

A lot of these trends were apparent to anyone who's been watching him all year, but it's nice to see it laid out as a complete blueprint on how he's being pitched this season.

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5 minutes ago, Simsanityy179 said:

The fact he got paid over 300mil is a joke

Careful.  Owners (governors) make so much money they have to overpay players people say.  

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3 hours ago, Cmilne23 said:

Careful.  Owners (governors) make so much money they have to overpay players people say.  

 

paying him that money and not getting the statistical return value means nothing. they are selling tickets and merchandise. teams have investors. the sports commentators should be grilling the Phillies and Harper but don't. the Angles with Pujols was another one. they would have been better paying a minimum for whatever 1B was to be had. 

 

also have to wonder what is in their contracts they sign. these players really stay in line.

Edited by mlb2019
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On 6/28/2019 at 9:47 AM, Backdoor Slider said:

who has the ability to go .330/40

He'd be lucky to sniff .300 again let alone .330.  

It's not a coincidence that the players voted him the most overrated player in the league.

 

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24 minutes ago, IDGAFOS said:

He'd be lucky to sniff .300 again let alone .330.  

It's not a coincidence that the players voted him the most overrated player in the league.

 

In one of my dynasty leagues I jumped ship on him. Traded him and boy it feels good lol.

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2 hours ago, IDGAFOS said:

He'd be lucky to sniff .300 again let alone .330.  

It's not a coincidence that the players voted him the most overrated player in the league.

 

Yeah, I guarantee scouts would say he's really changed in terms of ability and hit tool. 

Speed non existent. Hit tool diminished. Still has power, but that's about his only tool other than he can throw too. He's not a .300 bat, he's not even a .280 bat. 

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You've just gotta hold at this point. I don't really think anyone is going to pay top dollar based on his current numbers, but at the same time I don't think his current numbers are killing fantasy teams, nor are they indicative of his talent. I know he's had 3600+ major league at-bats, but he's only 26 years old and I believe can (and will) still make adjustments/improve as an all-around hitter. 

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