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Bryce Harper 2019 Outlook


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Lol I understand some of the criticisms of Bryce and his approach, but to pretend he’s not completely driven to be great and that he’s the “kind of guy who would settle for sitting on the bench for 13

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2 hours ago, lavaman said:

Philly or LA.  What's it gonna be?

 

He’d be stupid not to choose Philly if both deals are tantamount to 3 year deals. Better park, better numbers, better exposure, etc. 

 

 

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10 minutes ago, Magoo said:

He’d be stupid not to choose Philly if both deals are tantamount to 3 year deals. Better park, better numbers, better exposure, etc. 

 

 

That's just flat out not true. Harper likes LA for personal reasons a lot more than Philly, so he'd be 'stupid' to not go to L.A. all things financially being equal. 

Either way, it's likely going to be the one with the better contract. 

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Just now, CrypTviLL said:

That's just flat out not true. Harper likes LA for personal reasons a lot more than Philly, so he'd be 'stupid' to not go to L.A. all things financially being equal. 

Either way, it's likely going to be the one with the better contract. 

Well it’s an opinion so...

Anyways, personal preference is obviously a huge deal. But looking at it strictly from “another bite at the FA Apple perspective” so to speak, Philly will enhance his offensive numbers and more people will be able to watch him and see how much revenue he can bring in.

 

LA is already Hollywood without him. He would be the ticket in Philly.  

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25 minutes ago, Magoo said:

Well it’s an opinion so...

Anyways, personal preference is obviously a huge deal. But looking at it strictly from “another bite at the FA Apple perspective” so to speak, Philly will enhance his offensive numbers and more people will be able to watch him and see how much revenue he can bring in.

 

LA is already Hollywood without him. He would be the ticket in Philly.  

Ticket? What the heck are you trying to sell?

I can’t see one person picking Philadelphia over Los Angeles... 

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4 hours ago, lavaman said:

Philly or LA.  What's it gonna be?

 

My prediction: Harper leaves money on the table and chooses LA. Goes for $280 million over 8 years turning down Philly’s record breaking 11 year, $350 million deal.

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12 minutes ago, meh2 said:

My prediction: Harper leaves money on the table and chooses LA. Goes for $280 million over 8 years turning down Philly’s record breaking 11 year, $350 million deal.

my prediction is he sees this and signs in SD 10 years 300 Mill, paid over 15 years

 

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19 minutes ago, meh2 said:

My prediction: Harper leaves money on the table and chooses LA. Goes for $280 million over 8 years turning down Philly’s record breaking 11 year, $350 million deal.

 

This would be the most surprising of all outcomes to me. I don't know which team it'll be necessarily, but I am most confident that it's going to be the biggest maximum guaranteed deal. I just have a hard time believing Harper employees Scott Boras, gets himself to free agency at 26, then takes less money and term.... especially as much as you are suggesting.

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6 minutes ago, oswald737 said:

 

This would be the most surprising of all outcomes to me. I don't know which team it'll be necessarily, but I am most confident that it's going to be the biggest maximum guaranteed deal. I just have a hard time believing Harper employees Scott Boras, gets himself to free agency at 26, then takes less money and term.... especially as much as you are suggesting.

I just get the impression that if he was seriously considering Philly he would’ve signed by now. LA’s proximity to his home in Vegas and the whole Hollywood lifestyle seem important to him and his wife. Who knows? It’s fantasy draft season. I plan on being wrong a lot over the next month.

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He takes the most guaranteed money.   You simply don't leave $200M on the table, assuming Philly is offering 300M+ over 10 and LAD is offering three years at a record breaking AAV.  If Dodgers got into the same ball park, he could pass up say an extra 30M-ish from Philly to sign in LAD, but I don't see the Dodgers getting anywhere close in overall guaranteed money.  Harper is basically using the Dodgers short term offer to try and get an early player opt out from Philly. 

I'd never give an opt out - you're asking the team for a 10 year commitment, but only willing to make a 3 year one yourself.  You only want a three year commitment - fine, sign a three year contract. 

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11 hours ago, Magoo said:

Well it’s an opinion so...

Anyways, personal preference is obviously a huge deal. But looking at it strictly from “another bite at the FA Apple perspective” so to speak, Philly will enhance his offensive numbers and more people will be able to watch him and see how much revenue he can bring in.

 

LA is already Hollywood without him. He would be the ticket in Philly.  

I think most people know what he is capable of offensively.  If the money was absolutely equal, why would he not go to a team that has gone to two straight World Series?  That is some pretty good exposure IMO.  NL East is loaded.  Dodgers should have little effort making the playoffs for the next few years.  Again, this is with length and money being equal.  

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According to Kerry Crowley of the Bay Area News Group, Giants CEO Larry Baer and president Farhan Zaidi met with Bryce Harper in Las Vegas on Tuesday.

It was the second known meeting between the Giants and Harper. The Phillies still appear to be the highest bidder for the 26-year-old superstar, but we've been saying that for weeks now and it doesn't appear that an agreement is close. San Francisco is thought to be interested in a shorter-term deal with Harper, who is probably aiming to top the 10-year, $300 million contract that Manny Machado signed last week with the Padres. The Dodgers also lurk as a potential darkhorse here in late February.

Feb 27, 2019, 9:45 AM
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18 minutes ago, azeri98 said:

If he signs in SF, he will be fantasy irrelevant for years to come, he won't even be a top 50 player, no protection in the line-up, He could set the record for walks

 

probably a bit extreme. but yeah, going to SF would crush his value (wouldnt be a second round player to me)

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35 minutes ago, azeri98 said:

If he signs in SF, he will be fantasy irrelevant for years to come, he won't even be a top 50 player, no protection in the line-up, He could set the record for walks

Irrelevant? Bryce is a professional he will get the numbers. 90/30/90 

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13 minutes ago, shakestreet said:

Irrelevant? Bryce is a professional he will get the numbers. 90/30/90 

Not necessarily irrelevant, but it would be a pretty substantial downgrade for sure. Going to literally the worst home park for left handed power, having zero lineup protection, and not even one of the more optimistic farm systems for future production profits. I think 90 runs and RBI is super ambitious in that situation, and in BA categories leagues that don't give him credit for OBP there isn't much to like about it. I wouldn't touch him in the first 3 rounds in even a points league if he goes to San Fran personally. 4th round I would take a shot to see where his talent gets him.

 

Edit: Second thought, I think mid to late round 3 is still reasonable for Harper (even in SF), but the problem there is that there is so much pitching talent at that point that it would be really easy to pass him by. It would be a steal if he lasted to the 4th round. But the point is here that this is his worst case scenario for this year as well as the foreseeable future if he lands with the Giants.

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6 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

He's gonna knock himself in 90 times?  60 of those won't be by homers because all of them will be solo shots.

I know it looks bleak, all Giant fans will have to faith that rebound seasons are coming from Belt, Panik, Crawford, Longoria & Posey.... a new season a new outlook. 

 

12 minutes ago, jbj said:

Not necessarily irrelevant, but it would be a pretty substantial downgrade for sure. Going to literally the worst home park for left handed power, having zero lineup protection, and not even one of the more optimistic farm systems for future production profits. I think 90 runs and RBI is super ambitious in that situation, and in BA categories leagues that don't give him credit for OBP there isn't much to like about it. I wouldn't touch him in the first 3 rounds in even a points league if he goes to San Fran personally. 4th round I would take a shot to see where his talent gets him.

Is that true about left handed power? I remember seeing somewhere in these threads that the park is middle of the pack in hitting. 

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28 minutes ago, shakestreet said:

Irrelevant? Bryce is a professional he will get the numbers. 90/30/90 

Not in SF, he has zro protection in the line-up, teams will never pitch to him, they don't have to.

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7 minutes ago, shakestreet said:

I know it looks bleak, all Giant fans will have to faith that rebound seasons are coming from Belt, Panik, Crawford, Longoria & Posey.... a new season a new outlook. 

 

Is that true about left handed power? I remember seeing somewhere in these threads that the park is middle of the pack in hitting. 

Worst ballpark for hitters especially left handed hitters

http://www.espn.com/fantasy/baseball/story/_/page/mlbdk2k16_parkfactors/which-parks-most-least-favorable-fantasy-baseball-hitters-pitchers-mlb

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