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Christian Yelich 2019 Outlook


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Many of us gambled on him finally exploding last year.

 

...it paid off. 

 

Now the question is, has he hit his ceiling yet or is there more? 

 

If he’s hit his ceiling, then top 10 pick (or, say, $40+) means there’s a huge chance he is a “bust” this year, either due to general regression, injury, or a slump in part of the year. 

 

However, since he’s young, it’s possible he may have more, in which case, you may choose him at 10 and get a top-5 return or pay $40 and get what would’ve cost you $50 had we known he had another level. 

 

What say ye?

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I guess I'm the guy that has to say im probably actively avoiding CY this year at top half of first round prices.  

 

That 35% hr/fb is ridiculous.  Can't bank on that again,  even with the hard hit gains that support it,  to an extent.   I need more than 18hrs from my first rounder i think. 

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2 hours ago, WahooManiac said:

I guess I'm the guy that has to say im probably actively avoiding CY this year at top half of first round prices.  

 

That 35% hr/fb is ridiculous.  Can't bank on that again,  even with the hard hit gains that support it,  to an extent.   I need more than 18hrs from my first rounder i think. 

What makes you think hes likely to only hit 18 HRs? His HR floor and celing should be higher than when he played in miami.

 

Streamer is giving him 27 HRs this year. 

 

Altuve and benintendi are the cheapest buys of his skill set and i doubt either of them falls far past round 2.

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43 minutes ago, Slatykamora said:

What makes you think hes likely to only hit 18 HRs? His HR floor and celing should be higher than when he played in miami.

 

Streamer is giving him 27 HRs this year. 

 

Altuve and benintendi are the cheapest buys of his skill set and i doubt either of them falls far past round 2.

I hate to make too much of any one stat,  but i really can't get past the 35%. That's ginormus and screams crazy.  

And even if it's only a round until the next similar guys,  I'll wait.  There's a lot of guys past him on adp that i like a lot better for first round redraft purposes.  

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Is Yelich a legit first rounder? Before last season he was never anywhere close to that. Before last season he was a roughly .800 OPS guy with 20 homers or less. Is Yelich a different and improved hitter in a great ballpark or will his regression make him the ultimate bust of 2019?

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i think yelich is a very nice player, but i do not think he's a first rounder. i think he got caught up in what was shaping up to being a magical season in milwaukee, late inning rally's, never say die, destiny's team..etc... and was the face of that entire movement.

look, yelich had just 11 home runs heading into the all star break and just 15 by august 1st. FIFTEEN!... up until that point in his career, whether majors or minors, he had hit twenty home runs in a season just one time with 21 in 2016... but then he 'figured it all out' (??).. and in just august and september alone, he matches his highest home run output to any season in just two months with 21 home runs??

iiiii don't know... i won't go so far as to call it a fluke, but like i said, i think it was just one of those magical runs that you see every so in often in this great game and to his credit, he just ran with it. up until then, he was fairly pedestrian.

also consider the magic had certainly died come the post season as the dodgers held him in check to just five hits in 33 at bats (.179 avg).. be sure teams will learn what worked in that post season to get this guy out then.

which brings us to his likely regression, especially with that hr/fly ball rate... more than likely in the middle of his original natural progression before the magic, and the magical season he had last year, which means somewhere between 21 home runs previous high) and 38 home runs (last season)... i'll say he hits .around 290 with about 27/28 home runs and roughly 90rbi and maybe 15/16 steals - (usually, once a guy starts tasting that long ball, they steal less).. which again, makes for a really nice player.. these are basically charlie blackmon numbers... really nice and solid - just not top ten.

i would be comfortable to consider him a top 25 - 30 guy.

 

Edited by PinstripedPlayers
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Last year he still hit over 50% ground balls - and even fewer fly balls than he did the previous year. His 2018 HR total seems like a complete fluke.

His batted ball mix hasn't really changed much the past 3 years, and he his GB:FB ratio has remained well over 2 over that entire stretch. In fact he had the 9th worst GB/FB of any qualified hitter. He had by far the highest GB% of any 30+ HR hitter. I dont think he'll reach 30 this year and I wouldn't be surprised at all if he hit only 20-24.

Still a fantastic hitter, but anyone expecting a repeat of the HR/RBI is going to be disappointed.

 

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On 3/9/2019 at 11:09 PM, cs3 said:

Last year he still hit over 50% ground balls - and even fewer fly balls than he did the previous year. His 2018 HR total seems like a complete fluke.

His batted ball mix hasn't really changed much the past 3 years, and he his GB:FB ratio has remained well over 2 over that entire stretch. In fact he had the 9th worst GB/FB of any qualified hitter. He had by far the highest GB% of any 30+ HR hitter. I dont think he'll reach 30 this year and I wouldn't be surprised at all if he hit only 20-24.

Still a fantastic hitter, but anyone expecting a repeat of the HR/RBI is going to be disappointed.

 

Yep, whoever drafts Yelich in the Top 5 or even Top 10 is going to be disappointed.

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4 hours ago, LasTortugasFB said:

Yep, whoever drafts Yelich in the Top 5 or even Top 10 is going to be disappointed.

That’s okay.  I got him 9th pick last draft I was in.  I’ll take my chances with him there. 

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You guys can talk yourselves out of Yelich all you want but he's about as pure a hitter as you can get. I have him right behind Trout and Betts. I'll be hoping I can get him with my 6th pick. He's raking again this spring with two bombs. One of those bombs was a moon shot to dead center. Age 27 year. Avoid at your own peril 

Edited by bigbluecrew56
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He likely won't finish the year in the top 10 overall but I feel like he's one of the safest picks in the first round. No injury history, entering a prime age, great park/lineup, and multiple projection sites have him around 27 hrs and 16 steals. Add in a 290-300 average with 90+ runs and rbis it's not top 10 production but you won't lose your league because of it. 

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even with a 25/18 300/100/100 line that would still warrant a 1st rd pick in most leagues.

as mentioned above I don't care about his batted ball profile hes a pure hitter and will run into atleast 25 bombs. even without the last 2 months where he hit 10 and 11 hrs, if he only hit 5 he would of hit 25 bombs last year

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On 3/11/2019 at 6:27 PM, My Dinner With Andre said:

The focus on the ground ball and HR/fb rates is myopic.

 

Yelich checks every box. Except for those two...

 

But those details impact the rest of the "boxes" to check.

A .373 BABIP and 35 percent HR/FB rate last season isn't traditionally repeatable. 

I own him, took him 8th in a 12 team H2H. But I expect SOME regression. 

And, call me crazy, but I'd still take Yelich 8th every time in a 12-team if he delivers 25-30 HR / 18- 25 SB / with an OBP around .380/.390 in that lineup, in that park, in his age 27 season....without any major injury history. 

 

Edited by DrizzleOnTop
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