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Carlos Correa 2019 Outlook


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2 hours ago, 20Duval904 said:

 

 

I did not get “a couple of days” from that at all.  That’s the best case scenario.   Call me skeptical or a whiner, whatever.  Between owning him and tatis this year  I’ve seen three updates that said “back in a day or two”...in Order they’ve gone 5 weeks, 2 months, rest of season.  This is my 4th alleged “few days” update.  

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Souza Jr already won it when he tore every single connected ligament and fiber running in a straight line.

This guys such a joke lol. He's either hurt or batting .212, next Arod lol? Get tfoh haha

31 minutes ago, Cesare13 said:

I did not get “a couple of days” from that at all.  That’s the best case scenario.   Call me skeptical or a whiner, whatever.  Between owning him and tatis this year  I’ve seen three updates that said “back in a day or two”...in Order they’ve gone 5 weeks, 2 months, rest of season.  This is my 4th alleged “few days” update.  

 

Correa just always has something going on and it’s always dramatic. So I expect at least a week on the shelf, probably more. Tatis has been protected and coddled by the Padres, it feels like. Which makes sense from their perspective. Stinks for us.

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What I really can’t stand about this guy, aside from the fact that he  seems to hurt himself by doing things the rest of just do in our every day lives is that his injuries never have any sort of timeline.  He might be back in 10:days....or 100...nobody knows. But because it MIGHT be 10, here he is, once again,  clogging up a roster spot.  

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On 1/26/2019 at 10:39 AM, dicka24 said:

This guy killed me last year.  He's dnd unless its a draft day bargain that can't be passed up.  Back problems are not to be taken lightly. 

I don’t always agree with your takes, but you were spot on here. I suspect people will still be drafting him in the top 75 again next year thinking they’ll have a star “if he just stays healthy.”

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21 minutes ago, jspeco9 said:

Confused at those shocked, what did yall expect when you drafted him? 🤣

 

/ thread.  

I would allow someone else in my league deal with this guy.

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42 minutes ago, sportsfreak2744 said:

 

Oh, save it. His upside has always been worth it and while the back was a known risk going into the season no one could have predicted the massage injury.

Dude that's extremely naive on your part. He's the new Tulo. It's okay to gamble on him for upside IF cheap, but you should 10000000% predict ANY injury with guys like this. I would even be scared of him sneezing.

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1 hour ago, jspeco9 said:

Confused at those shocked, what did yall expect when you drafted him? 🤣

 

I knew of the injury risk but I was focused on his age. A young body should be resilient. Unfortunately, it has become established that he's an injury prone player. I wasn't yet ready to declare him as one before the season. At the price I paid, his upside made it worth it. We've all seen what he's capable of in between injuries this year. 

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2 hours ago, jspeco9 said:

Confused at those shocked, what did yall expect when you drafted him? 🤣

This post could have appeared on the kershaw thread in April and now look at him.  In many leagues, you’re going to have to hit on a pick or two like this type to win.  The injury risk was part of the price, every single person that drafted him knew the deal going in and I don’t think a single poster on here is shocked,  

1 hour ago, jspeco9 said:

Dude that's extremely naive on your part. He's the new Tulo. It's okay to gamble on him for upside IF cheap, but you should 10000000% predict ANY injury with guys like this. I would even be scared of him sneezing.

Tulo was regularly priced as a guy that would only play 120 games after his first few seasons.  If it weren’t for that, he would have been an easy first rounder those  years.  This is hardly anything revolutionary.

2 hours ago, sportsfreak2744 said:

 

Oh, save it. His upside has always been worth it and while the back was a known risk going into the season no one could have predicted the massage injury.

Had it not been for the massage injury, even assuming he’s out ROS because of the back,his numbers would have likely been a profit for most people where he was drafted.

 

all this does is drop his draft price for next year.  Myself personally, I wouldn’t be excited to draft him, and I certainly won’t target him.  But if the names around him are plain, boring guys that I can likely replace I’ll certainly take a chance at that point.   Maybe take a high upside backup later on.  It’s just as naive and irresponsible to label a 22 year old of this caliber as DND as it is to draft him.

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12 hours ago, Cesare13 said:

This post could have appeared on the kershaw thread in April and now look at him.  In many leagues, you’re going to have to hit on a pick or two like this type to win.  The injury risk was part of the price, every single person that drafted him knew the deal going in and I don’t think a single poster on here is shocked,  

Tulo was regularly priced as a guy that would only play 120 games after his first few seasons.  If it weren’t for that, he would have been an easy first rounder those  years.  This is hardly anything revolutionary.

Had it not been for the massage injury, even assuming he’s out ROS because of the back,his numbers would have likely been a profit for most people where he was drafted.

 

all this does is drop his draft price for next year.  Myself personally, I wouldn’t be excited to draft him, and I certainly won’t target him.  But if the names around him are plain, boring guys that I can likely replace I’ll certainly take a chance at that point.   Maybe take a high upside backup later on.  It’s just as naive and irresponsible to label a 22 year old of this caliber as DND as it is to draft him.

Ok you were the one compaining about him.

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1 minute ago, jspeco9 said:

Ok you were the one compaining about him.

 

Evaluation of a player doesn't have to be -- and I would argue shouldn't be -- in such binary terms.  If you took a calculated risk on Correa this year and it didn't pan out, you're going to be frustrated.  That doesn't mean he's a bum who should be on every DND list heading into 2019.  It just means that the injury-prone label is even more apt than it was heading into the season, and that there are significant reasons to nudge his projections down even further.  Nuance is extremely important when playing this game.

Nobody knows right now where his ADP will settle in, and with the position being so deep, I'm not going to be prioritizing Correa in my drafts next season as a starting SS.  But if his price is heading down into the middling MI range and I don't take a big risk with my starting SS, I'd definitely take a shot again on the chance that this is a run of bad luck instead of a career-threatening trend.  If name value keeps him in the top 75, I doubt I'll have him on my teams.  If he slips into the triple digits, why not?

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15 hours ago, sportsfreak2744 said:

 

Oh, save it. His upside has always been worth it and while the back was a known risk going into the season no one could have predicted the massage injury.

Curious what you think his upside is to warrant drafting a guy who's so injury prone. Genuinely asking. He doesn't run, he has above-average but not elite contact skills, his power has ranged between 20 to 35 homers over a 162-pace per year, and his on-base skills, while alright, are nothing to rave about. A realistic projection perhaps is .280/90/30/100/2? That's so meh..especially with how deep SS is now.

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12 minutes ago, jspeco9 said:

Ok you were the one compaining about him.

I certainly won’t deny complaining on this forum.   Certainly wasn’t shocked.  Everyone is disappointed to some degree when a player of theirs suffers an injury.  Coming here and comisersting with others that have shared the same fate gives me a few laughs and makes me feel better and we move on in a day.  A lot of people do this. Almost no one however comes in and pokes fun of those that just had an injury.

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10 minutes ago, Jyeatbvg said:

Curious what you think his upside is to warrant drafting a guy who's so injury prone. Genuinely asking. He doesn't run, he has above-average but not elite contact skills, his power has ranged between 20 to 35 homers over a 162-pace per year, and his on-base skills, while alright, are nothing to rave about. A realistic projection perhaps is .280/90/30/100/2? That's so meh..especially with how deep SS is now.

 

.280/90/30/100 is meh?

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19 minutes ago, Jyeatbvg said:

Curious what you think his upside is to warrant drafting a guy who's so injury prone. Genuinely asking. He doesn't run, he has above-average but not elite contact skills, his power has ranged between 20 to 35 homers over a 162-pace per year, and his on-base skills, while alright, are nothing to rave about. A realistic projection perhaps is .280/90/30/100/2? That's so meh..especially with how deep SS is now.

That’s a pretty decent projection for like 145 or so imo.  He certainly has the TALENT to be a first rounder.  The injuries so far dont seem to indicate a skill erosion.   120 is probably a reasonable expectation for games played barring any additional injury news and I’m assuming he’ll be the sameadp as a solid, but un sexy and unspectacular numbers producer type.  Personally, I had a similar infatuation with tulo, thinking that after owning him like 3 years in a row I didn’t want him to go off and win someone else a championship.  Ended up costing me quite a few.  There will be a good spot to draft him next year, the challenging part will be to eliminate the emotions (I’ll never touch him again/he’s due)  from it.

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1 hour ago, Cesare13 said:

That’s a pretty decent projection for like 145 or so imo.  He certainly has the TALENT to be a first rounder.  The injuries so far dont seem to indicate a skill erosion.   120 is probably a reasonable expectation for games played barring any additional injury news and I’m assuming he’ll be the sameadp as a solid, but un sexy and unspectacular numbers producer type.  Personally, I had a similar infatuation with tulo, thinking that after owning him like 3 years in a row I didn’t want him to go off and win someone else a championship.  Ended up costing me quite a few.  There will be a good spot to draft him next year, the challenging part will be to eliminate the emotions (I’ll never touch him again/he’s due)  from it.

 

I don't see the talent to be a first rounder, especially since the steals dropped off. I'd say his ceiling is a late-2nd round/early 3rd type production. 

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He has the talent to steal bases at a good clip, but the team would be foolish to let him do it at this point given the concerns about his health and how little value SBs add, particularly in a lineup full of sluggers.

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