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Biggest Busts of 2018


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8 hours ago, mongidig said:

I was shocked that they extended Bortles contract. He had a decent year last year but you had to wonder when he would start Bortling again. Not having Fournette hurt. Your right though! no way you could envision the Jags being that bad.  Hogan certainly should have been better at least the first 4 games. I think people were expecting top 20 numbers from him all year even though he has never done that. Rogers was "off the year Jordy got hurt.. This year had the same feel to me. DJ felt dirty to me the whole way.


Hindsight is 20/20


I actually talked about this in either the Bortles or Jags thread going into the season. 


The Jags hit Bortles with a tag which is common to do and could definitely be rescinded at a later time (drafting a QB or acquiring one in FA). 


Bortles was a genius though and opted for an optional surgery to wrist or something (I forget what surgery). 


In doing so, Bortles guaranteed his like $19 M tag and made his tag UN rescindable. 


I believe the jags believed they were in a win now spot going into the year and wanted to lessen his cap hit so they did the unthinkable... They extended him to put themselves in a win now position in 2018. I get it. They've been a trash franchise for years and have had worse fan base in NFL with blacked out games and threats of moves forever. But this thinking was extremely short sided and now they've gotta either be prepared to bite the bullet in 2019 and cut him and eat all that dead money or pay him and tank again for a 2020 rebuild. 


Regardless, I believe the Jags offseason will be one of the more interesting off seasons to watch 

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DJ seems obvious in retrospect but the talk going into the season, and what usually had him ranked ahead of Zeke in 3rd, is that he was supposed to be largely be immune to his team's situation because of his passing game role (when they were down) and his volume (so whatever TDs they scored would disproportionately go to him). It failed spectacularly but that is what a lot of people thought. DJ was even a dark horse for being the number one pick in some quarters.

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Lots of the RB's were disappointments (major)

* Lev Bell 2nd overall pick DNP

* Leonard Fournette - 8th overall ADP was hurt and ineffective most of the year

* Kareem Hunt 9th overall ADP - 

* Devonta Freeman 12th RB taken - Hurt for over half the season

* Jordan Howard 13th RB taken - so some saw as RB1 low end, didnt put up RB2 numbers

RB2 Pool of: Royce Freeman, Lesean McCoy, Alex Collins, Jereck McKinnon, Jay Ajayi, Marshawn Lynch, Carlos Hyde.  


FLEX RB's? : Ronald Jones, Chris Thompson, Duke Johnson, Rex Burkhead.  


You could have a whole thread on Disappointing RB's.  


Other spots:

Gronk - only producted TE1 weeks like 3 times, was hurt and ineffective, had 2nd round ADP and was top TE ADP 



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On 25/12/2018 at 8:22 PM, Sartorialism said:


At least a lot of Bell owners were able to handcuff him with Conner. No such option for DJ.


On 25/12/2018 at 5:36 PM, lavaman said:

True. Bell busted his owners more than DJ did his.


Those are top two, though. imo


No way DJ was a bigger bust than Gronk

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On 12/21/2018 at 3:46 PM, chief79 said:

I am surprised to see a few people list Watson, I thought he has had a pretty good year.  I guess if your were expecting a Mahomes type year you are disappointed, but those type of season don't happen very often.

Won me a championship. I am not sure what these people are thinking. 

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I have to say one of my biggest misses/busts was Royce Freeman.  I drafted him in a lot of leagues thinking he might turn out to be this years Kareem Hunt rookie standout....And it didn't happen.  I guess I was right that there was opportunity for somebody in that backfield to emerge but it turned out to be Lindsay.

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47 minutes ago, Elviplatinum said:

I'm sorry but Chris Hogan runs away with biggest bust award for players that actually played all year, and it's not close.



Jordan Howard says hi.


What round was hogan drafted in? 4/5? I think it's close taking rounds/auction price into consideration 

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On 12/30/2018 at 9:34 AM, Elviplatinum said:

I'm sorry but Chris Hogan runs away with biggest bust award for players that actually played all year, and it's not close.



He was never going to be anything more than the #3 option once everyone came back, yes no one saw the Patriots passing offense being as down as it was, but I never understood the Hogan hype. He went in the 4th round in drafts towards the end, how many #3 options in any passing game warrant being picked that high? 

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Devonta Freeman hurt me in two leagues. 

Derrick Henry who I traded after week 8 hurt. Two years in a row he went off at the end of the year. 

Amari Cooper got me this year, and will get more people again next year. Just can't be relied on unless he falls into the WR3 convo. 

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Every player in the top-12 (with the exception of Bell) gave you 10 ppg in .5 PPR - so I cannot consider any of them a bust.


Bell was a bust if you drafted him at a high spot, but once it became clear that he might not show up, he became a gamble, and then you lost. To me, that's not a bust.

I checked the players who were drafted in the top 65 (I think you cannot complain too much about a round 6 or higher pick), who scored less than 75% of comparable players at their position. That gives the following pseudo scientific bust-list:


Name ADP Points Position avg at position bust%
Le'Veon Bell 15.5 0 RB 11.4 0%
Chris Hogan 50.9 4.6 WR 11.9 39%
Devonta Freeman 22.3 4.6 RB 10.7 43%
Royce Freeman 46.7 5.9 RB 12.4 48%
Rex Burkhead 62.9 3.8 RB 7.9 48%
Michael Crabtree 60.7 5.3 WR 9.9 54%
Jimmy Graham 64.8 4.9 TE 8.4 58%
Rob Gronkowski 22.3 6.8 TE 10.6 64%
Marquise Goodwin 64.9 5.9 WR 9.1 65%
Demaryius Thomas 38.4 6.5 WR 9.8 66%
Allen Robinson 42.4 7.6 WR 11.0 69%
Dion Lewis 58.7 6.9 RB 9.6 72%
Greg Olsen 63.4 5.9 TE 8.2 72%
Golden Tate 39.3 7.5 WR 10.2 73%
LeSean McCoy 35.3 6.4 RB 8.5 75%


Note that Fournette actually scored more or less average to his draft position (so he's not even in this list), and while DJ disappointed, it wasn't that bad. If we discard Bell again, I think we can consider Hogan, Freeman and Freeman the biggest busts, with a dishonorable mention for Gronk because he was drafted so high.


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