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Yasiel Puig 2019 Outlook


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5 minutes ago, CrypTviLL said:

Yup, I would be ALL on board with Puig, but in my drafts Puig went from a projected value of around $15 to over $20. At those prices, I had to quit out on Puig unfortunately. 

He's definitely a great pick if you can get him where he is going, but the hype is real so buyer beware!

I agree.  However, is you set a baseline of .275/25/80/88/20 he is well worth it.  I think he can exceed those numbers though.

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Depends on how harshly your stressing the word "easily." I think all three are certainly in the cards in 2019.    Mathematically, I actually think it's harder to make the argument he WON'T h

Last 650 PA:  42 HR 24 SB 85 R 103 RBI .267/.325/.528

2 minutes ago, Jvanspro said:

I agree.  However, is you set a baseline of .275/25/80/88/20 he is well worth it.  I think he can exceed those numbers though.

 

I really like Puig entering this season but that's a pretty high floor you're setting for him particularly in the SB category. I think the other numbers are pretty much a lock but for a guy who's never exceeded 15 SB I wouldn't put his floor at 20. I know he reached 15 in 125 games last year so I get why you project 20 as a floor but in 2017 he also stole 15 in 152 games. While I think it's certainly possible he reaches or even exceeds 20 I just wouldn't set that as my floor expectation for him. Regardless I believe he's still a bit of a value where he's being drafted but there is some risk which is why he's going where he is. The value just isn't as great as it was if you drafted a few weeks ago. 

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8 minutes ago, BostonCajun said:

 

I really like Puig entering this season but that's a pretty high floor you're setting for him particularly in the SB category. I think the other numbers are pretty much a lock but for a guy who's never exceeded 15 SB I wouldn't put his floor at 20. I know he reached 15 in 125 games last year so I get why you project 20 as a floor but in 2017 he also stole 15 in 152 games. While I think it's certainly possible he reaches or even exceeds 20 I just wouldn't set that as my floor expectation for him. Regardless I believe he's still a bit of a value where he's being drafted but there is some risk which is why he's going where he is. The value just isn't as great as it was if you drafted a few weeks ago. 

I completely understand your stance on this and you may be correct.  I set the SB at 20 due to team context.  I tend to think the Reds will run more then the Dodgers.  Let’s say he doesn’t hit 20 and gets 12, I’m still super stoked to get him at 75.  

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1 hour ago, BostonCajun said:

 

I really like Puig entering this season but that's a pretty high floor you're setting for him particularly in the SB category. I think the other numbers are pretty much a lock but for a guy who's never exceeded 15 SB I wouldn't put his floor at 20. I know he reached 15 in 125 games last year so I get why you project 20 as a floor but in 2017 he also stole 15 in 152 games. While I think it's certainly possible he reaches or even exceeds 20 I just wouldn't set that as my floor expectation for him. Regardless I believe he's still a bit of a value where he's being drafted but there is some risk which is why he's going where he is. The value just isn't as great as it was if you drafted a few weeks ago. 

 

He's never hit 20 because he never had a full opportunity with LA. This should be the first year in his career he will get consistent ABs since 2014.

But I do agree he has a low floor, however, if he wants to run he also has a very high ceiling. He could probably be a 30+ SB guy if he actually tried because he has the speed. I'll be happy with 10-15 this year, though. The value will come from his HR and RBI.

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2 hours ago, Baseball Jonze said:

Does Puig get any/enough CF time to gain eligibility there?  One has to assume he plays CF in a Kemp/Winker/Puig OF right?  Or does that OF never happen?

 

If Senzel comes up near right away I think it really will be Winker / Senzel / Puig far more dayas than not. 

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Fellas - what's the typical ADP you're seeing lately? 

I'd like to take a chance at him (draft tomorrow night) but my first pick after keepers is #61, and then nothing till #90. I don't see any chance he falls to 90 considering the hype now

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7 minutes ago, squidthunder said:

Fellas - what's the typical ADP you're seeing lately? 

I'd like to take a chance at him (draft tomorrow night) but my first pick after keepers is #61, and then nothing till #90. I don't see any chance he falls to 90 considering the hype now

NFBC ADP over the last 9 days is 66. I play mostly on Fantrax with 5 outfielders and that’s right where he’s been going. I’ve seen him going a little later in Yahoo pro leagues that start 3.

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11 minutes ago, meh2 said:

NFBC ADP over the last 9 days is 66. I play mostly on Fantrax with 5 outfielders and that’s right where he’s been going. I’ve seen him going a little later in Yahoo pro leagues that start 3.

Yea sounds right to me. And to be 100% honest he may not even be there at 61 with the way the hype train is rolling now ( I'm in a 4 OF league) 

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I'm targeting him at 55. Not sure that the baseline projections are correct, he could lead the league in RBIs hitting where he's hitting. Behind Winker, Suarez, Votto? Thats a combined ~.385 OBP. 

There's a ton of upside here, even baked into the price. I can easily see a .275, 85 runs, 28 homers, 110 RBI, 20 SB season here, and you don't really have to squint that hard. Sign me up anywhere after 50.

People get to caught up in ADP. If he's your guy go get him.

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Exactly.  I never like to pay too much attention to ADP.  I just go for the guys I want on my team.  If I were to use ADP more I guarantee I wouldn’t get the players I wanted.  Nothing worse then losing on a guy who breaks out because you didn’t want to take them a couple rounds early.

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Agree wholeheartedly on the ADP thoughts. It's best to use it as a tool to get an idea where others may consider taking a player. If you want said player reach for him rather than waiting for his ADP to arrive on draft day. You'll miss out almost every time. That being said, Puig is one of those guys that you'll need to "reach" for. The hype is big and in his instance warranted imo. He's got the tools, the playing time, and could put together a very valuable 5 cat season. If you want Puig do not wait for his ADP to arrive. Take him when you feel it's right for you. 

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