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Yu Darvish 2019 Outlook


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2 minutes ago, hangin n wangin said:

I haven't dropped yet and will give him a little bit more of a leash. But I am close to dropping. But just curious, what is your leash for him?? Assuming he keeps getting turtle shelled every start.

I mean I play in a pretty deep money league where pitching is scarce so my leash is pretty long. He is not close to droppable for me. But to give you a better idea he is my SP5 on my team. I have 9 SPs total. Thats where my confidence is at. And the guys above him are pretty good so no knock on him. In standard leauges I'd say hes still a solid SP4 on average.

 

And as far as 2017 goes, yeah 3.85 ERA isn't great but 3.85ERA with over 200Ks and a good winning club? Yeah I would love that and he would be a Top 20 SP if he can repeat his 2017 numbers IMO. Definitely worth keeping.

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LMFAOOOOO  

In related news: The Titanic set sail on this date in 1912

Well that's not promising. 

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17 minutes ago, terminator10 said:

I mean I play in a pretty deep money league where pitching is scarce so my leash is pretty long. He is not close to droppable for me. But to give you a better idea he is my SP5 on my team. I have 9 SPs total. Thats where my confidence is at. And the guys above him are pretty good so no knock on him. In standard leauges I'd say hes still a solid SP4 on average.

 

And as far as 2017 goes, yeah 3.85 ERA isn't great but 3.85ERA with over 200Ks and a good winning club? Yeah I would love that and he would be a Top 20 SP if he can repeat his 2017 numbers IMO. Definitely worth keeping.

Ok. Thanks for sharing. I play in a 12 team league and also have 9 SP's. He is far and away my worst one (obviously didn't expect that going into the year), although my staff is great. [...] Again, I will wait a little longer, but I can't give him too long of a leash. I just don't think he's that good anymore. So that's my opinion. Agree to disagree and good luck.

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But yeah guys I really think there will be some adjustments to at least attack the zone more for Yu in his next  game vs. Miami and think he can have a great night overall. If he has a mediocre/bad game but keeps his walks lower I wouldn't be too concerned at least they tried to make adjustments and his swing/miss stuff just couldn't come through today. If he has a bad game and allows a lot of walks okay I'm much more concerned lol.

 

 

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5 hours ago, hangin n wangin said:

I mean even going back to a decent year in 2017...he had a 3.86 ERA. That's solid, but there are guys on the wire who can give you that. I really think it's wishful thinking at this point that he will resemble anything close to old Yu.

That ERA is definitely replaceable, but that's only 1 stat. The 10.1 K9 in 2017 is not replaceable, and that was his career low K rate. Also his 1.16 whip in 2017 was pretty damn good. Derek Rodriguez can give you a great ERA but he's going to kill you in Ks.

He's been really really bad so far, but I just can't quit him. The obvious issue is his control and command. His ghastly BB9 rate of 7.4 is clearly killing him. I can't see it staying nearly that high, and as it comes down the results should get much better. I'll bench until I see progress.

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52 minutes ago, bradwatson said:

That ERA is definitely replaceable, but that's only 1 stat. The 10.1 K9 in 2017 is not replaceable, and that was his career low K rate. Also his 1.16 whip in 2017 was pretty damn good. Derek Rodriguez can give you a great ERA but he's going to kill you in Ks.

He's been really really bad so far, but I just can't quit him. The obvious issue is his control and command. His ghastly BB9 rate of 7.4 is clearly killing him. I can't see it staying nearly that high, and as it comes down the results should get much better. I'll bench until I see progress.

I don’t think he’s that pitcher anymore, which is why I don’t see his whip being anywhere close to that. I hope he turns it around, but I am doubting him right now. 

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Easy buy low.  His GB rate is way up, HR/FB massive fluke.  His xFIP isn’t great because his walk rate is 7.44 per 9, his average BB per 9 is 3.53.  Long layoff from injury, only tossed 40 IP last year so not shocking command is off to a slow start.  Fastball command off.  He can still dial it up.  He won’t cost you anything.  So why not gamble on a guy who can throw 6 pitches if he wants, a wiffle ball slider, and a few other nasty pitches.  He needs to sequence better and command better.  That comes with time.  He’s got too much talent to keep tossing BP.

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1 minute ago, bluefrogguy said:

He's a no brainer to pickup if someone dropped. He's the kind of pickup you can make a lot of profit on.

 

Good matchup tonight on paper at least.  

I hope my opponent picks him up 

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1 minute ago, urban2014 said:

I hope my opponent picks him up 

 

Good one.  But in all seriousness, this week's matchup for him is Miami and their .264 wOBA and league worst 6.7% BB rate.  The W and K potential is high.  Obviously risk with his recent struggles and could impact ERA and WHIP categories in a head to head matchup. But this is as good a matchup as he's going to get. 

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On 5/6/2019 at 10:22 PM, slaphitter said:

From the above link:

Said Davis, Darvish’s catcher: “Yu threw the ball well. The results are going to be misleading, people who didn’t watch the game. At the end of the day he made some really quality pitches.”

I watched and there was nothing misleading

 

If he throws the ball well, how come that any time I watch this guy pitch, for every batter, even the pitcher, his pitchcast looks like a blind man's target sheet at the shooting range.
And in a QS league he is like a long releiver.

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Ok, so relevant or not...

I pitched in high school and college. I threw hard for my size (88-90) but being under 6’, I made a living off my junk. 12-6 curve, slurve, fastball, and wicked circle change...

 

As a righty, I knew the ball broke really hard (Northern NV winds) and I’d aim at the hitters left shoulder or a** cheek then let it break into the zone. I’m not saying I was equal to a MLB pitcher by any means, but I’ve seen Yu’s pitches ALWAYS start in the heart of the zone and break 2 feet out of it. Hitters give up and take pitches immediately. I don’t get why a pitching coach can’t change his aim point and get him to do what I did. 

As a hitter, it’s hard not to flinch immediately when you feel like a ball is going to hit you, and even if they get a swing on it after said flinch, it’s not a good one. 

 

Beyond maddening to let this guy guy go out time after time, and not figure it out. His movement is as good as anyone I’ve ever seen, but a trip to the disgraced list, a whore house, and a psychologist seems in order. He’s just a hot mess and regardless of “why”, the Cubs cannot let this continue w/ out trying something new. It’s just laughable at this point. Including his contract on a side note! 

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2 hours ago, Ecofolux said:

6 BBs 1 hit  7Ks   4IP    97 pitches thrown....what the hell is going on here?!? This guy is so frustrating

It's Yu that's what. Unhittable today but not around the zone either.

Pretty worrying command vs the Marlins but it must improve over time. That said it might take a while, in shallowers I would consider dropping. Lots of usable SP's emerging (Giolito, Mahle, Gibson, Woodruff etc).

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