Aaron Jones 2019 Outlook

[Corleone 1,962]

As the 2018 season is over for Aaron Jones, let's get the ball rolling on his 2019 Outlook...

 

Aaron Jones had a very interesting 2018. He was clearly the most talented RB on Green Bay's roster, and many people felt that once he returned from his 2-game suspension to start the season, that he should become GB's workhorse.

 

Unfortunately for Jones, the GB coaching staff was quite stubborn in trying to stop that from happening. Whether it was Mike McCarthy/Joe Philbin being in love with the "best pass-blocking RB" of all time in Jamaal Williams, bad game scripts, something from practice, or who knows what, the Packers didn't let Jones become the featured RB until after their Week 7 bye.

 

Once Jones became the feature back though, he took the job and ran with it. He put up several excellent performances (albeit many of the games were with less carries than we would have liked). He also showed nice receiving chops and from everything I've read, did a very good job in pass protection to boot.

Alas in Week 15, Jones suffered an early-game MCL injury, knocking him out of action. With the injury coming so late in the season and GB out of playoff contention, he was placed on IR. The MCL injury to his right knee is the same injury he suffered in 2017, which knocked him out for 2 games. 

 

Despite only playing in 12 games (and more like 11, with the early injury in his final game), Jones finished as the #21 RB in 1 point PPR format, and #20 in .25 point PPR format (through Week 16, the end of the fantasy season for almost all owners).

 

What does 2019 have in store for Jones?

[Corleone 1,962]

In my opinion, I believe Aaron Jones will be a Top 10 RB in 2019 if healthy. Why?

 

**Reason 1 of 4 as to why Aaron Jones will be a Top 10 RB in 2019**
 

1. 1. He's awesome.
   
   In both of Jones' seasons, he has shown an explosiveness that not many RB's have. That's evidenced by a 5.5 YPC in both 2017 and 2018. These are his career stats so far:

214 carries - 1176 yards - 12 TD

35 catches - 228 yards - 1 TD

 

Now granted, that is across two seasons. But the amount of carries is about what the top dozen RB's or so get in a season. There were 10 RB's in 2018 that received 214 carries through Week 16 (and a few more may pass that in Week 17). Based on what Jones has done on the field to date, I do not think it is unrealistic for him to put up those numbers in a full season - if he can stay injury-free of course.

 

What would the above statistics look like amongst the 2018 fantasy season? Not counting any bonus points for 100 yard games, in 1 point PPR, you would get 250.40 FP's (I included a -3 for one lost fumble, as that's how many fumbles Jones has lost along with the above numbers).

 

250.40 FP's would make Jones the #9 RB in the 2018 season. 

 

To play devil's advocate, let's say Jones produces at the above clip in 2019, but misses one game during the season. That would put him at 234.75 FP's, which would make him the #13 RB in 2018. 

 

As a believer in what I have seen from Jones on the football field to date, I think achieving the above numbers are realistic in a single season for Jones (and I think he can go beyond those numbers too, if he goes to 215+ carries). With all said and done, I feel comfortable in ranking Jones as a Top 10 RB for the 2019 season. For what it's worth, this is who I rank in the Top 10 as of this writing...

 

Saquon, Gurley, Zeke, CMC, Kamara, Gordon, D.Johnson, Conner, Jones, and L.Bell.

 

Some may agree and others may disagree, but that's how I see it at this stage. 

[Corleone 1,962]

**Reason 2 of 4 as to why Aaron Jones will be a Top 10 RB in 2019**

 

2. He's awesome.

I know I already said that in Reason #1, but it is worth repeating. Here are some additional ways to exhibit his excellence...

 

--Across his career, Jones has received double-digit carries in 12 games. This is the production he's put up:

Week 4 2017: 13 carries - 49 yards - 1 TD; 0 catches

Week 5 2017: 19 carries - 125 yards - 1 TD; 1 catch - 9 yards

Week 6 2017: 13 carries - 41 yards; 1 catch - 1 yard

Week 7 2017: 17 carries - 131 yards - 1 TD; 3 catches - 7 yards

Week 4 2018: 11 carries - 65 yards - 1 TD; 1 catch - 17 yards

Week 7 2018: 12 carries - 86 yards - 1 TD; 2 catches - 0 yards

Week 8 2018: 14 carries - 75 yards; 2 catches - 10 yards

Week 9 2018: 15 catches - 145 yards - 2 TD; 3 catches - 27 yards

Week 10 2018: 11 catches - 40 yards - 1 TD; 5 catches - 63 yards - 1 TD

Week 11 2018: 17 catches - 72 yards - 1 TD; 3 catches - 21 yards 

Week 12 2018: 11 catches - 36 yards - 1 TD; 4 catches - 16 yards

Week 13 2018: 17 catches - 78 yards - 1 TD; 3 catches - 28 yards

 

So in those 12 double-digit carry games, even though many of them were in the low double-digits, Jones was a stud in 10 of the 12 games (highlighted in green). He only had one dud (in red), and one average game (in gray). That is some excellent production. If Jones is allowed to be a workhorse, he will produce. 

[Corleone 1,962]

**Reason 3 of 4 as to why Aaron Jones will be a Top 10 RB in 2019**

 

3. Jones is effective in many other ways not immediately visible from traditional stat lines.

 

--His ability to get a 1st down is excellent.

Coaches should appreciate players who keep the chains moving. Through Week 16 of the 2018 season, I count Jones as the #1 RB in football at running for 1st downs. He got a 1st down on 30.8% of his carries in 2018.  By comparison, here are all RB's with at least 90 carries through Week 16 2018...

Jones - 30.8%

Kamara - 29.4%

Gordon - 27.9%

Gurley - 27.3%

K.Johnson - 27.1%

G.Edwards - 26.4%

Conner - 25.9%

Michel - 25.6%

Lindsay - 25.5%

Hunt - 25.4%

Mack - 25.3%

Chubb - 25.1%

Mixon - 25.0%

Carson - 24.6%

Ingram - 24.1%

Zeke - 24.0%

CMC - 23.7%

Henry - 23.6%

Breida - 23.5%

Ekeler - 23.5%

J.White - 23.3%

R.Freeman - 23.0%

Lynch - 22.2%

J.Williams - 22.1%

M.Davis - 21.9%

J.Howard - 21.0%

Coleman - 20.8%

Ivory - 20.8%

A.Morris - 20.0%

I.Smith - 20.0%

D.Martin - 19.9%

D.Johnson - 19.5%

A.Collins - 19.3%

Cohen - 19.1%

Peterson - 19.0%

Saquon - 18.4%

Drake - 18.3%

J.Adams - 18.3%

Crowell - 18.2%

L.Miller - 17.6%

Blount - 17.5%

Barber - 17.4%

Fournette - 17.3%

Blue - 17.0%

Cook - 16.4%

Gore - 16.0%

L.Murray - 15.9%

Yeldon - 15.4%

D.Lewis - 14.2%

McCoy - 13.9%

 

--His ability to get a big play is also excellent.

In Jones' career so far, he has 10 carries where he ran for 20+ yards. That's 10 carries in 214 carries, which is a 4.7% percentage. How does that compare to other 2018 RB's? I looked at all other RB's who had at least 7 runs of 20+ runs in 2018...

Cohen - 7.4% (7 runs of 20+ yards)

Breida - 6.5% (10 runs of 20+ yards)

Chubb - 6.0% (11 runs of 20+ yards)

Saquon - 5.7% (14 runs of 20+ yards)

Gordon - 5.5% (9 runs of 20+ yards)

Jones - 4.7% (10 runs of 20+ yards in 2017 & 2018, which equates to a full season's worth of carries)

Conner - 4.5% (9 runs of 20+ yards)

Coleman - 4.4% (7 runs of 20+ yards)

Gurley - 4.3% (11 runs of 20+ yards)

Lindsay - 4.2% (8 runs of 20+ yards)

Mixon - 4.0% (9 runs of 20+ yards)

Hunt - 3.9% (7 runs of 20+ yards)

Zeke - 3.6% (11 runs of 20+ yards)

Carson - 3.1% (7 runs of 20+ yards)

[Corleone 1,962]

**Reason 4 of 4 as to why Aaron Jones will be a Top 10 RB in 2019**

 

4. Packers fired coach Mike McCarthy.

OC Joe Philbin has been promoted to head coach. It's extremely rare for a 13th-year head coach to get pink slipped mid-season, but the Packers truly had no choice after Sunday's bury-your-head-in-shame embarrassing loss to the Cardinals. Perhaps McCarthy's negative impact on Aaron Rodgers and company has been overstated in the past, but there was no debate in 2018. McCarthy's scheme looked expired-milk stale as Rodgers struggled to get on the same page with his young receivers. McCarthy took months longer than any other football observer in America to realize Aaron Jones was better than Jamaal Williams. Perhaps most damagingly, he and Rodgers could scarcely conceal their animus for each other. The king of coaching not to lose despite having the most dangerous player in football, McCarthy has been laying the groundwork for this inevitable moment for years. Dec 2 - 7:02 PM

[Corleone 1,962]

apologies, double post.

Edited December 28, 2018 by Corleone

[Corleone 1,962]

I did some additional research. Overall for 2018, Jones played from Weeks 3--14, before getting hurt early on Week 15.

 

From Weeks 3--14, Green Bay had 723 offensive snaps.

Jones was on the field for 369 of those 723 snaps.

So he played on just 51% of the snaps...and still put up the production he did (934 yards from scrimmage & 9 TD's, in essentially 11 games). 

[Gohawks 10,074]

What the f--- is Aaron Jones himself doing on a fantasy football forum?

[DezedandConfused 2,791]

Adam Gase interviewing with Packers rip, who's the oldest rb on the team?

[ajs723 3,325]

20 minutes ago, DezedandConfused said:

Adam Gase interviewing with Packers rip, who's the oldest rb on the team?

If the Packers hire Gase, it wouldn't surprise me to see them sign Gore, with Jones limited to a situational 3rd down role. Jones and Drake are very similar players. Only caveat is that I think Gase's hatred of Drake was more personal than based on his skillset. 

[murraygd13 1,165]

I'd put him in a tier after the top guys.  Gurley, Elliott, Barkley,CMC, Kamara, Conner,Bell, Gordon.

 

Then I'd probably have Jones in with Cook, Mixon, D Johnson, Carson, Chubb, Jones, Lindsay,K Johnson, Henry.  Another 9 guys, I'd have Jones somewhere in the upper group here.  If guess the Chiefs draft a RB.  Fournette might be a bargain depending on where he goes. Marlon Mack should be solid. Surprising how deep RB appears to be next year.

[FoosballFan 14]

16 hours ago, ajs723 said:

If the Packers hire Gase, it wouldn't surprise me to see them sign Gore, with Jones limited to a situational 3rd down role. Jones and Drake are very similar players. Only caveat is that I think Gase's hatred of Drake was more personal than based on his skillset. 

Packers would trade for Drake, Gase wouldn't want someone else giving Drake more than 5 touches

[petekrum 2,499]

An RB1 next season.

[Blood Brother 1,867]

Ankle surgery that knocked him out for much of his junior yr in college and now 3 MCL sprains in 2 NFL seasons(with limited carries). He's incredibly good and he needs touches but so far he's not really dispelling the thought that he can hold up over the course of the year with a full workload

Edited January 5, 2019 by Blood Brother

[ST. STEVEN 4,177]

STOCK UP^^^

[bhawks489 3,678]

On 1/5/2019 at 11:33 AM, Blood Brother said:

Ankle surgery that knocked him out for much of his junior yr in college and now 3 MCL sprains in 2 NFL seasons(with limited carries). He's incredibly good and he needs touches but so far he's not really dispelling the thought that he can hold up over the course of the year with a full workload

Yikes looks like a bit of knee trouble. 

[JoeJoe88 1,156]

LaFleur should be a good thing for him.

[akooreman180 67]

As a second rounder next year I think he could be a steal. Lafleur should increase his value.

[Zak0221 910]

7 minutes ago, akooreman180 said:

As a second rounder next year I think he could be a steal. Lafleur should increase his value.

 

no way I would use a second round pick on Aaron Jones 

 

he needs to prove it a bit but his arrow is certainly pointing up 

[akooreman180 67]

1 minute ago, Zak0221 said:

 

no way I would use a second round pick on Aaron Jones 

 

he needs to prove it a bit but his arrow is certainly pointing up 

I wouldn’t use an early second on him

but late second I’d go for it.

[Boudewijn 4,456]

2 hours ago, JoeJoe88 said:

LaFleur should be a good thing for him.

Because of what LaFleur did with Lewis and Henry?

[JoeJoe88 1,156]

1 minute ago, Boudewijn said:

Because of what LaFleur did with Lewis and Henry?

Henry didn't really separate himself from Lewis until the latter part of the year, that's not his fault.  

 

He was also working with a banged up QB for the majority of the year.  He prefers a one-back system.  If Jones stays healthy, he's likely a top-10 RB next year.

[Nap Time 1,033]

29 minutes ago, JoeJoe88 said:

Henry didn't really separate himself from Lewis until the latter part of the year, that's not his fault.  

 

He was also working with a banged up QB for the majority of the year.  He prefers a one-back system.  If Jones stays healthy, he's likely a top-10 RB next year.

 

Yeah, and Henry was not really a good fit for the outside zone one-cut system.  He's more of a mauler.  Jones is risky as heck because of durability, but the upside is huge.

[psygolf 2,791]

Really bold predictions there girls...he's already shown himself to be a top 10 rb once he became the starter.

 

No slow down here. 

[Boudewijn 4,456]

2 hours ago, JoeJoe88 said:

Henry didn't really separate himself from Lewis until the latter part of the year, that's not his fault.  

 

He was also working with a banged up QB for the majority of the year.  He prefers a one-back system.  If Jones stays healthy, he's likely a top-10 RB next year.

1) I was not talking about Henry specifically. What I meant was that LaFleur was not very good for the fantasy value of either Lewis or Henry. That may have been a fine decision in real football, but in fantasy, nobody liked it.
You say LaFleur prefers a one-back system, but that's not what he did in Tennessee (except the last couple of games)::

 

2) If Jones stays healthy - that's a big if, given that he played 12 games for the past years each. Regarding proving his status as RB1; he didn't do that in 2017, when he couldn't really shake off TyMo. In 2018 he made a better claim for that against Jamaal Williams, but if I am the Packers, I would definitely put him to the test again in 2019. He may then again prove it (barring injury) but Jones does not yet have the status that he is the undisputed #1 in his team for years to come, and can be safely picked as a RB1.

 

Third round with upside, yes. I'll buy that; he needs a good pre-season for me to move up to the second round.