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Aaron Jones 2019 Outlook


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The sell high buy low stuff gets completely carried away on here.     Here is a new strategy.  Jones is a good running back.  Keep him.  Start him.  

I don't know what you guys were watching but I thought he looked fine. He will have better days ahead against much worse defenses than he's faced these first 4 weeks. I expect the whole offense to loo

"Against weaker defenses Jamaal Williams will be more effective? There's no difference in effectiveness between the two RBs?"   Jones had 5.5 YPC last year and sits at 5.0 for his career. Ja

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Nobody can understand what GB is doing with Jones. Even if they want to keep him fresher for the stretch run of the season (or TNF), splitting the carries as they did in Week 3 was a bizarre move...especially considering how it appears to have been planned, based on comments following Week 2 and despite how good Jones was in Week 2.

With that said, keep this in mind for Jones...since being given a greater role in the middle of 2018, these have been the weekly RB ranks for Jones in PPR:

image.png.a9b7f3be72737cae29004f58ff9af88f.png

 What are the green highlights?
Week 11 2018 is the rank for Jones the last time he played on Thursday Night Football (which was at Seattle no less).
Week 2 2019 is the rank for Jones the last time some people sat Jones because he was going against a tough run defense (Minnesota).

This is of course no guarantee for Jones in Week 4. We have to be uneasy with how GB split the workload between Jones and Williams.
But considering Jones has only had 2 bad fantasy games (1 due to injury) in his past 11 games, you might end up missing out on another productive outing if you bench him.

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12 minutes ago, Corleone said:

Nobody can understand what GB is doing with Jones. Even if they want to keep him fresher for the stretch run of the season (or TNF), splitting the carries as they did in Week 3 was a bizarre move...especially considering how it appears to have been planned, based on comments following Week 2 and despite how good Jones was in Week 2.

With that said, keep this in mind for Jones...since being given a greater role in the middle of 2018, these have been the weekly RB ranks for Jones in PPR:

image.png.a9b7f3be72737cae29004f58ff9af88f.png

 What are the green highlights?
Week 11 2018 is the rank for Jones the last time he played on Thursday Night Football (which was at Seattle no less).
Week 2 2019 is the rank for Jones the last time some people sat Jones because he was going against a tough run defense (Minnesota).

This is of course no guarantee for Jones in Week 4. We have to be uneasy with how GB split the workload between Jones and Williams.
But considering Jones has only had 2 bad fantasy games (1 due to injury) in his past 11 games, you might end up missing out on another productive outing if you bench him.

I think he's fine and the split is planned but not a permanent thing. He's getting the goal work and I am starting him and expect him to get the bulk of the touches.

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15 minutes ago, Corleone said:

Nobody can understand what GB is doing with Jones. Even if they want to keep him fresher for the stretch run of the season (or TNF), splitting the carries as they did in Week 3 was a bizarre move...especially considering how it appears to have been planned, based on comments following Week 2 and despite how good Jones was in Week 2.

With that said, keep this in mind for Jones...since being given a greater role in the middle of 2018, these have been the weekly RB ranks for Jones in PPR:

image.png.a9b7f3be72737cae29004f58ff9af88f.png

 What are the green highlights?
Week 11 2018 is the rank for Jones the last time he played on Thursday Night Football (which was at Seattle no less).
Week 2 2019 is the rank for Jones the last time some people sat Jones because he was going against a tough run defense (Minnesota).

This is of course no guarantee for Jones in Week 4. We have to be uneasy with how GB split the workload between Jones and Williams.
But considering Jones has only had 2 bad fantasy games (1 due to injury) in his past 11 games, you might end up missing out on another productive outing if you bench him.

 

I honestly don't care if he duds, as long as he's getting 70% of the touches. That's my only problem with owning Jones. If he duds and I lose my week, at least I know he's going to be getting the ball consistently and we know what he does when given the opportunity. In a close game last week, he was losing touches to Williams. I don't care if it's a short week. It was a close game and your best play makers should be in the game. Especially when that play maker already scored two touchdowns for you in the game.

The coaching staff is a fantasy killer and anyone ignoring this is just being naive.

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8 minutes ago, n4sa said:

 

I honestly don't care if he duds, as long as he's getting 70% of the touches. That's my only problem with owning Jones. If he duds and I lose my week, at least I know he's going to be getting the ball consistently and we know what he does when given the opportunity. In a close game last week, he was losing touches to Williams. I don't care if it's a short week. It was a close game and your best play makers should be in the game. Especially when that play maker already scored two touchdowns for you in the game.

The coaching staff is a fantasy killer and anyone ignoring this is just being naive.

if he gets consistent goal line carries, that can offset a lack of touches.  not saying he will get two rushing tds every game, but if hes the gl back, ill take that plus 15 touches.

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1 hour ago, n4sa said:

 

I honestly don't care if he duds, as long as he's getting 70% of the touches. That's my only problem with owning Jones. If he duds and I lose my week, at least I know he's going to be getting the ball consistently and we know what he does when given the opportunity. In a close game last week, he was losing touches to Williams. I don't care if it's a short week. It was a close game and your best play makers should be in the game. Especially when that play maker already scored two touchdowns for you in the game.

The coaching staff is a fantasy killer and anyone ignoring this is just being naive.

Nobody is ignoring the coaching staff. I literally started my quoted comment speaking to that...and closed out that we have to be uneasy as well. That doesn't mean we need to overreact IMO. Here are some stats:

There are only 14 RB's with 50 or more touches so far in 2019. Here's the full list:

image.png.428d5f3c6acaa0029aa6c85ecbaf602c.png

Jones is 14th in RB touches. There are 32 teams in the NFL, so being in the upper half of the league is a plus.
Next is Team RB Touches. GB has had 85 RB touches, good for a 7th place tie of the listed teams. Meaning that GB RB's have been getting the ball a lot.
Next is RB Touch % amongst all RB's on the teams for these players. Jones is 12th on this list.
Beyond that, towards asking for 70% of RB touches, we can see that just 7 RB's from this list are at 70% or higher.
(Would Zeke and Cook probably be at 70% if they didn't have early team blowouts? Sure. But positive/negative game script for RB's is part of football)
In Week 1, some complained Jones didn't have enough touches (though he had 66.7% of GB's RB touches). Despite the high %, he had a bad fantasy day.
In Week 2, Jones only had a slight expansion in % (69.2%). But it was a game that called for lots of running and Jones had a great fantasy day. 
In Week 3, Jones only had 44% of the touches. But he had a good fantasy day nonetheless.
He's had 2 of 3 games you'd be happy to have those FP's in your lineup. He has the aforementioned touch and % totals favorable to many other RB's.

To all...it's a long season. Let's not be too quick to overreact to one bad fantasy game (like in Week 1).
Or to one game in which GB went away from Jones the majority of the time. GB still gave him 3 crucial touches inside the 10, leading to 2 TD's.
(Williams had zero touches inside the 10)
If Jones ends up with the majority of GB RB touches AND is their goal line back, it should be a good fantasy season for him.

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28 minutes ago, Corleone said:

Nobody is ignoring the coaching staff. I literally started my quoted comment speaking to that...and closed out that we have to be uneasy as well. That doesn't mean we need to overreact IMO. Here are some stats:

There are only 14 RB's with 50 or more touches so far in 2019. Here's the full list:

image.png.428d5f3c6acaa0029aa6c85ecbaf602c.png

Jones is 14th in RB touches. There are 32 teams in the NFL, so being in the upper half of the league is a plus.
Next is Team RB Touches. GB has had 85 RB touches, good for a 7th place tie of the listed teams. Meaning that GB RB's have been getting the ball a lot.
Next is RB Touch % amongst all RB's on the teams for these players. Jones is 12th on this list.
Beyond that, towards asking for 70% of RB touches, we can see that just 7 RB's from this list are at 70% or higher.
(Would Zeke and Cook probably be at 70% if they didn't have early team blowouts? Sure. But positive/negative game script for RB's is part of football)
In Week 1, some complained Jones didn't have enough touches (though he had 66.7% of GB's RB touches). Despite the high %, he had a bad fantasy day.
In Week 2, Jones only had a slight expansion in % (69.2%). But it was a game that called for lots of running and Jones had a great fantasy day. 
In Week 3, Jones only had 44% of the touches. But he had a good fantasy day nonetheless.
He's had 2 of 3 games you'd be happy to have those FP's in your lineup. He has the aforementioned touch and % totals favorable to many other RB's.

To all...it's a long season. Let's not be too quick to overreact to one bad fantasy game (like in Week 1).
Or to one game in which GB went away from Jones the majority of the time. GB still gave him 3 crucial touches inside the 10, leading to 2 TD's.
(Williams had zero touches inside the 10)
If Jones ends up with the majority of GB RB touches AND is their goal line back, it should be a good fantasy season for him.

 

 

Nobody is overreacting here, it's week 3 and what we see is a nearly 50% snap share between these two. Am I happy Jones got the GL carries last week? absolutely because he would have been completely worthless if he hadn't. Am I sitting him this week? no of course not. Am I confident in starting him? not really. If he doesn't get 60% of the touches this week, I doubt anyone is going to be confident in starting him.

Those snaps are also trending down for Jones. Which is not a good sign.

 

tdN3JzM.png

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To quote another famous Packer, R.E.L.A.X.

Week 1 vs Bears tough D, still dominated carries 13 to 5.

Week 2 dominated carries with 23 against a tough Vikings D

Week 3 short week, probably pulled back carries against a crappy Broncos team.

He'll be fine.  They know who they need to give the ball to if they want to win games.

 

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1 minute ago, RustyMiller said:

To quote another famous Packer, R.E.L.A.X.

Week 1 vs Bears tough D, still dominated carries 13 to 5.

Week 2 dominated carries with 23 against a tough Vikings D

Week 3 short week, probably pulled back carries against a crappy Broncos team.

He'll be fine.  They know who they need to give the ball to if they want to win games.

 

Yeah...Jamall Williams! This why we are so angry right now...

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9 minutes ago, n4sa said:

 

 

Nobody is overreacting here, it's week 3 and what we see is a nearly 50% snap share between these two. Am I happy Jones got the GL carries last week? absolutely because he would have been completely worthless if he hadn't. Am I sitting him this week? no of course not. Am I confident in starting him? not really. If he doesn't get 60% of the touches this week, I doubt anyone is going to be confident in starting him.

Those snaps are also trending down for Jones. Which is not a good sign.

 

tdN3JzM.png

I don't know what source your snap count is from, but either it is incorrect or Pro Football Reference (what I'm using) is incorrect.
From Pro Football Reference, Jones has been in for 101 of 189 snaps.
And Williams has been in for 91 of 189 snaps.

Jones has been in for 53.4% of snaps...but has 61.2% of GB's RB touches.
Williams has been in for 48.1% of snaps...but has 38.8% of GB's RB touches.

As for "trending down", in the second week in which he slightly went down in snap percentage compared to Week 1, he had 27 touches. What more could we have asked for there? 

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So turns out they were just limiting his snaps because of a shoulder injury and a short week. 

They haven’t practiced this week but he was listed as a full participant. 

I think we can expect a similar work load to the game with Minnesota. 

If that’s the case we are all definitely going to want to start him 

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2 hours ago, HOF12 said:

So turns out they were just limiting his snaps because of a shoulder injury and a short week. 

They haven’t practiced this week but he was listed as a full participant. 

I think we can expect a similar work load to the game with Minnesota. 

If that’s the case we are all definitely going to want to start him 

Is that confirmed or just speculation?   The bolded above.

Edited by K197040
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6 minutes ago, jpark211 said:

Seems like the fantasy community is claiming he is a "bust" for TNF

What do you guys think his floor and ceiling would be in standard and PPR leagues?

Don't worry about the haters. Should easily get 15 points. I'm thinking way more though, like 25-30.

giphy.gif

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18 hours ago, jpark211 said:

Seems like the fantasy community is claiming he is a "bust" for TNF

What do you guys think his floor and ceiling would be in standard and PPR leagues?

He was also a "do not start" vs. Minnesota.

I don't have any other RB options on my bench that have a decent chance at putting up 20 fantasy points so I'm going to roll him out there.

Floor is probably 5 in both formats.   Realistic ceiling is 20-24.   100 all purpose yards, a couple of TDs, a couple of receptions. 

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