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Aaron Jones 2019 Outlook


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1 hour ago, psygolf said:

Really bold predictions there girls...he's already shown himself to be a top 10 rb once he became the starter.

 

No slow down here. 

Your right he's a lock top 10 RB because he did it for a total of 6 weeks.  Don't worry about his injury history.  It doesn't matter at all.

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The sell high buy low stuff gets completely carried away on here.     Here is a new strategy.  Jones is a good running back.  Keep him.  Start him.  

I don't know what you guys were watching but I thought he looked fine. He will have better days ahead against much worse defenses than he's faced these first 4 weeks. I expect the whole offense to loo

"Against weaker defenses Jamaal Williams will be more effective? There's no difference in effectiveness between the two RBs?"   Jones had 5.5 YPC last year and sits at 5.0 for his career. Ja

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5 hours ago, youngrice said:

Your right he's a lock top 10 RB because he did it for a total of 6 weeks.  Don't worry about his injury history.  It doesn't matter at all.

I didn't claim anything for 2019...you need to go after someone else  

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I would not judge LaFleur much on TEN last year. He was boxed in by the head coach, and had QB (plus o-line) injuries, limited weapons and it takes time for his system--to which the o-line was not set-up for at all. TEN line was quite good the year before--but this Shanny-like system needs athletic o-linemen and this was a big mauler unit. The GB line is both good and athletic and sets up for this zone system WAAAY better. The system is also much less shotgun reliant--which is also great for Jones as he runs awesomely when they have happened to not be in a shotgun.

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1 hour ago, Lamont Sanford said:

 

IMO, it's pretty obvious he was the best RB in that division considering the competition. Kerryon was solid, but Jones was certainly the better runner. He just needs to stay healthy. If he does, he should have a huge year.

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Ugh.  I hope this isn't the case by the start of the season

 

New Packers coach Matt LaFleur said a "committee approach" is the most effective when it comes to Jamaal Williams and Aaron Jones.

In other words, LaFleur doesn't believe either Williams or Jones is a bellcow runner. Both have shown the ability to put up big numbers when given the chance to be No. 1 backs when the other has been injured, particularly Williams down the stretch last season when Jones was on I.R. But Williams is a plodding type, and Jones was called out for his conditioning by Gm Brian Gutekunst on Wednesday. It doesn't sound like LaFleur is willing to commit to one running back.

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1 hour ago, K197040 said:

Ugh.  I hope this isn't the case by the start of the season

 

New Packers coach Matt LaFleur said a "committee approach" is the most effective when it comes to Jamaal Williams and Aaron Jones.

In other words, LaFleur doesn't believe either Williams or Jones is a bellcow runner. Both have shown the ability to put up big numbers when given the chance to be No. 1 backs when the other has been injured, particularly Williams down the stretch last season when Jones was on I.R. But Williams is a plodding type, and Jones was called out for his conditioning by Gm Brian Gutekunst on Wednesday. It doesn't sound like LaFleur is willing to commit to one running back.

Image result for lafleur gif dodgeball

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Not sure whether to dismiss this or not.   They certainly did their damndest to get two backs involved most of the year in Tennessee, but eventually as Henry produced, he got the touches he needed to make us fantasy guys swoon.    

I dont think anyone would argue against Jones being the more talented back after how he performed last year.  The question is what has to happen to get him a strong number of touches.    I know Aaron Rodgers has vocally called for him to be more involved.  i'd hope a strong training camp allows him to separate a bit from Williams, this will require monitoring during the summertime.  

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3 minutes ago, K197040 said:

 

Thanks for posting.  I'm not sure I have the same optimistic take away from that as you do though.   

Essentially all LaFleur said was that he believes in using more than one back - which is pretty much par for the course in the NFL these days.  Here’s the full quote:

Any time in today’s NFL, you need multiple backs. Those guys, they take a beating at times. Just going back for the last couple years to Atlanta and then in L.A. and last year in Tennessee, if you have multiple backs that can get it done, I definitely think that’s the way you want to go about your business just to take kind of the load off those guys.”

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10 minutes ago, BMcP said:

Essentially all LaFleur said was that he believes in using more than one back - which is pretty much par for the course in the NFL these days.  Here’s the full quote:

Any time in today’s NFL, you need multiple backs. Those guys, they take a beating at times. Just going back for the last couple years to Atlanta and then in L.A. and last year in Tennessee, if you have multiple backs that can get it done, I definitely think that’s the way you want to go about your business just to take kind of the load off those guys.”

 

Yeah...I'm sure that's right.  And I suppose that even if they know they might have a favorite, it doesn't do any good for them to announce it right now.   That Jones is their 1.   Probably also ensures that both will work as hard as they can.  Hopefully Jones shines enough to earn at least 60% of the RB touches.   

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25 minutes ago, K197040 said:

 

Yeah...I'm sure that's right.  And I suppose that even if they know they might have a favorite, it doesn't do any good for them to announce it right now.   That Jones is their 1.   Probably also ensures that both will work as hard as they can.  Hopefully Jones shines enough to earn at least 60% of the RB touches.   

Exactly - it’s not like any of the situations he mentioned failed to provide a leading back who was very valuable fantasy-wise. I’d just treat it as a coach stating a truism and trying to keep players as motivated as possible.

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Another thing to like here is LaFleur’s fixation on establishing the run.  He ran more often (and less successfully) in early downs than Mularkey in the “exotic smashmouth.”

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46 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

Bold would be an understatement.

 

45 minutes ago, Lamont Sanford said:

Indeed. 

aside from the bold tier 1 prediction, where do yous see aaron jones' value?

currently, ajones is at 3.11 (half-PPR), as high as 2.09, as low as 4.07 (footballcalculator. fantasypros has him six picks higher.)

his yards per carry average was at #1 last season, and this 5.5 ypc was the same for his rookie year: true, his 81 attempts rookie year is not a solid sample size, but the fact that he can add 50 more carries sophomore year and duplicate this is meaningful. also noteworthy: this 5.5 ypc would have landed him at #2 behind kamara in 2017, and #2 behind zeke in 2016.

plus, kid got hands.

image.png.2b9c98eed81f8477683ff16b0c373652.png

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28 minutes ago, Sack Exchange said:

 

aside from the bold tier 1 prediction, where do yous see aaron jones' value?

currently, ajones is at 3.11 (half-PPR), as high as 2.09, as low as 4.07 (footballcalculator. fantasypros has him six picks higher.)

his yards per carry average was at #1 last season, and this 5.5 ypc was the same for his rookie year: true, his 81 attempts rookie year is not a solid sample size, but the fact that he can add 50 more carries sophomore year and duplicate this is meaningful. also noteworthy: this 5.5 ypc would have landed him at #2 behind kamara in 2017, and #2 behind zeke in 2016.

plus, kid got hands.

image.png.2b9c98eed81f8477683ff16b0c373652.png

His current ADP on FFC is solid. I'd gladly use a late 3rd round pick on him as things currently stand. Guys like Lindsay, Ingram, Henry, Carson, and Freeman are going around him. Gladly give me Jones over them. 

That being said, I wouldn't be surprised if his ADP creeps up. I value his ADP in the 29-32 range. However, he is a prime candidate to be overhyped as the preseason creeps in and into the preseason. I wouldn't be surprised if he is going in the second round come mid August which is too rich for me. However, as it stands he is a really good pick.

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On 4/19/2019 at 10:25 PM, messi0826 said:

Jones was the Packers’ most efficient running back in 2018, averaging 5.5 yards per carry, which ranked No. 1 in the NFL.

Jones was awesome last season. If it wasn't for a two game suspension to start the year, which then led to erratic usage by a buffoon, lame duck coach, he could’ve had an all-pro type season. He looked electric. Could be a steal this year. Definitely has top 10 potential, top 5 if GB’s offense is firing on all cylinders.

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