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Aaron Jones 2019 Outlook


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21 hours ago, mortman212 said:

Jamaal is a plodder he will be on in relief for 30 percent of plays but A Jones is a beast and Rodgers likes him, as long as he still plays hard and makes plays he will be on the field.  A Jones has potential for Top 15 easy.  

30 percent is high

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The sell high buy low stuff gets completely carried away on here.     Here is a new strategy.  Jones is a good running back.  Keep him.  Start him.  

I don't know what you guys were watching but I thought he looked fine. He will have better days ahead against much worse defenses than he's faced these first 4 weeks. I expect the whole offense to loo

"Against weaker defenses Jamaal Williams will be more effective? There's no difference in effectiveness between the two RBs?"   Jones had 5.5 YPC last year and sits at 5.0 for his career. Ja

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Jones is a serviceable low-end RB1/high-end RB2 that I feel more comfortable drafting over some of the more talented backs at his ADP. I think the security being a three-down back, along with the significant advantage of playing in a Rodgers-led offense means that his opportunity for volume and scoring outweighs the potential of more skilled players at the position. I think it's a coin-flip between Jones and the more-highly touted prospects in run-heavy offenses around his ADP, like Carson, Jacobs, Fournette, and Mixon. I currently have them ranked Fournette, Carson,  Jones, Jacobs, Mixon, but I'm tempted to move Jones one or two slots higher. At this point, I've just accepted that picking among those guys will come down to when I'm on the clock. If given that opportunity, I feel like you have to take one of those guys (ideally) as your second RB, because the drop-off after that tier is pretty significant. Jones feels like one of the better values of the draft this year, so I'm hoping that I can pick a top-flight RB1 with an earlier pick and then pair them with Jones.

Edited by EaglesRocker97
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There's been some mentions of being worried about Jones because he has a tough schedule, including Chicago twice. Now Chicago does project to have an excellent defense. But they don't automatically stifle all opposing RB's. I posted about this last year, and here is how the Bears did against opposing RB's last season...

--Week 1: Jamaal Williams: 15-47-0; no catches (Williams is a pancake blocking machine, but not much of a runner)
--Week 2: Rashaad Penny: 10- 30-0; no catches (rookie playing in his second game as part of a committee and with a recently-broken finger)

--Week 3: David Johnson: 12- 31-0; 4-30-1 TD (not a great game, but still solid enough with the TD)
--Week 4: Peyton Barber: 7-24-0; 1-6-0 (this was the game where Fitzpatrick first fell apart, with an epic dud)
--Week 5: bye
--Week 6: Frank Gore: 15-101-0; 1-18-0 (Kenyan Drake also had 78 total yards)
--Week 7: James White: 11-40-0; 8-57-2 TD (a big fantasy day with the receiving prowess)

--Week 8: Isaiah Crowell: 13-25-0; 1-13-0 (was anybody really starting Crowell anyways?)
--Week 9: LeSean McCoy: 10-10-0; 4-19-0 (was anybody starting McCoy...with Peterman as the starting QB?)

--Week 10: Kerryon Johnson: 14-51-1 TD; 6-38-1 TD (big fantasy day, in part because of receiving, and also first rush TD allowed by CHI to a primary RB)
--Week 11: Dalvin Cook: 9-12-0/3 for -2 (Cook has been an epic bust, with basically one good run all season to this point)
--Week 12: L.Blount: 19-88-2 TD; 1-15-0 (Kerryon out with injury but Blount has a big day on the ground)
--Week 13: Saquon: 24-125-0; 3-21-0 (most rushing yards allowed to one player by CHI)
--Week 14: Gurley: 11-28-0; 3-30-0 (this was right in the midst of Gurley's injury woes)
--Week 15: Jamaal Williams: 12-55-1; 4-42-0 (Jones gets hurt very early on and Williams comes on to have a nice game)
--Week 16: Jeff Wilson: 11-27-0; 2-11-0 (not the toughest of tests against SF here)
--Week 17: Dalvin Cook: 11-39-0; 4-21-0 (Cook had nothing going against CHI again)

Besides it being a new year with new personnel, RB's were able to succeed against the Bears 7 of 16 times. Of the 9 wins for the Bears against opposing RB's, I'll leave it to each person to judge how much of a threat the opposing RB actually was.

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8 minutes ago, Chardo said:

7 of the last 10 years, the top scoring back had fewer rushing TDs than the rest of the team combined. 

By that measure, Ezekiel Elliott should be downgraded (besides the whole holdout thing). Zeke had 6 rushing TD's in 2018. The rest of the team combined for 7.

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13 hours ago, Chardo said:

7 of the last 10 years, the top scoring back had fewer rushing TDs than the rest of the team combined. 

13 hours ago, Corleone said:

By that measure, Ezekiel Elliott should be downgraded (besides the whole holdout thing). Zeke had 6 rushing TD's in 2018. The rest of the team combined for 7.

In 2018, only half the teams had a lead rusher that scored the majority of the rushing TDs. I admit though that includes almost all studs (Kamara, Gurley, Gordon, Conner, Chubb, Barkley) but it didn't include Zeke and CMC.

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13 hours ago, Chardo said:

7 of the last 10 years, the top scoring back had fewer rushing TDs than the rest of the team combined. 

 

11 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

In 2018, only half the teams had a lead rusher that scored the majority of the rushing TDs. I admit though that includes almost all studs (Kamara, Gurley, Gordon, Conner, Chubb, Barkley) but it didn't include Zeke and CMC.

Nice check on the full listing. IMO it is a bizarre stat to discount a RB for.

In addition to it being a bizarre stat to discount a RB for, the number quoted above for Green Bay is wrong. It was 6 (not 7) of the last 10 years for GB, as their top scoring back had more rushing TD's than the rest of the team combined in 2009, 2013, 2014 and 2018. And so rather than try to spin the random stat against GB by saying they have 6 of 10 years not achieving that, one could say they have achieved it 3 of the last 6 years (including the most recent season, which would be a lot more important than what happened in 2010).

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Some people are concerned that Jones is too big an injury risk. And I'm not going to say he is a lock to stay healthy, as he's not. But with that said, lots of top RB's miss games. Just looking at the last two seasons, take a look at this list of backs who have missed at least two games...

D.Cook - 12 in 2017, 5 in 2018: 17 last two seasons
D.Freeman - 2 in 2017, 14 in 2018: 16 last two seasons
L.Bell - 0 in 2017, 16 in 2018: 16 last two seasons
Guice - 16 in 2018: 16 in only season
Da.Johnson - 15 in 2017, 0 in 2018: 15 last two seasons
Carson - 12 in 2017, 2 in 2018: 14 last two seasons
Fournette - 3 in 2017, 8 in 2018: 11 last two seasons
A.Jones - 4 in 2017, 4 in 2018: 8 last two seasons
Mack - 2 in 2017, 4 in 2018: 6 last two seasons
Zeke - 6 in 2017, 0 in 2018: 6 last two seasons
J.Conner - 2 in 2017, 3 in 2018: 5 last two seasons
K.Johnson: 6 in 2018: 6 in only season
Mixon - 2 in 2017, 2 in 2018: 4 last two seasons
M.Gordon - 0 in 2017, 4 in 2018: 4 last two seasons
Ingram - 0 in 2017, 4 in 2018: 4 last two seasons
Michel - 3 in 2018: 3 in only season
Gurley - 0 in 2017, 2 in 2018: 2 last two seasons

Now some of those missed games are because of suspensions or holdouts (including 2 of the missed games for Jones). A missed game from an expected suspension is not quite the same as a missed game from injury, as at least owners could plan for the suspensions with Mark Ingram and Jones. Then again, the Zeke and Fournette suspensions were random and caused chaos for owners (Zeke in particular). 

Anyways, point is that there are a lot of highly-drafted RB's who miss time. What is interesting (to me) is that some RB's seem to get dinged more than others for their injuries and missed time. You might pass on Jones because you're afraid of his history, but if you pick several of the other backs on this list ahead of him, you still might end up with an injury there. And previous iron men can get hurt too. Just food for thought.

Edited by Corleone
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I like him season-long but week 1 @CHI scares the s--- out of me.  And this is coming from someone who feels the Bears defense is due for regression.  I can just see the run game being ineffective early so LeFleur decides to go pass-heavy and just leave Williams in for pass-pro.  Strongly considering going Breida instead against a weak TB team.

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I missed out on Jones in my draft, but I am hoping I can get him in a trade within the first 5 weeks. I'm not saying he will not put up good/big/decent numbers in those weeks, but the Jones owner is the type of person that wants to see immediate results and he might be disappointed with what he gets. 

 

Congrats on those that drafted him - hopefully I'll be joining you guys soon! 

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2 minutes ago, FrancoJavierM said:

I missed out on Jones in my draft, but I am hoping I can get him in a trade within the first 5 weeks. I'm not saying he will not put up good/big/decent numbers in those weeks, but the Jones owner is the type of person that wants to see immediate results and he might be disappointed with what he gets. 

 

Congrats on those that drafted him - hopefully I'll be joining you guys soon! 

 

Too bad you’re not in my league... I drafted him last night and traded him an hour later.  I was disappointed with the lack of immediate results he was producing.

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Some are worried about Jones facing the Bears defense. Chicago was not only the #1 fantasy defense in 2018, but the #1 run defense against opposing RB's. I previously posted in this thread the fact that several RB's still had good fantasy games against the Bears last year. But I was curious as to some recent examples of how a upper-echelon run defense from one season, did against a good RB in Week 1 of the following season...

--In 2017, the Panthers had the #3 run defense against opposing RB's. And in 2018, they were the #12 defense taken as per ADP. 
In Week 1 2018, Ezekiel Elliott put up 15-69-1 and 3-17-0. So a solid game against one of the very-best run defenses from the prior season.

--In 2017, the Jaguars had the #10 run defense against opposing RB's. And in 2018, they were the #1 defense taken as per ADP. 
In Week 1 2018, Saquon Barkley put up 18-106-1 and 2-22-0. So a great game against the consensus #1 defense.

--In 2016, the Patriots had the #1 run defense against opposing RB's. And in 2017, they were the #5 defense taken as per ADP.
In Week 1 2017, Kareem Hunt put up 17-148-1 and 5-98-2. So an amazing game against another defense perceived to be elite.

I'm not saying Chicago is going to have a bad defense this season. And I'm not saying Aaron Jones is the same RB as any of the examples mentioned. Also, I'm sure there are examples of a good RB getting shut down in the type of situation in question. But point is, you can take a great run defense from the prior season, and see a good RB have a big fantasy game against them in Week 1 of the next season.

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43 minutes ago, mortman212 said:

agree with above, defenses are not consistent year to year, plus defense coordinator with gone, A Jones is an RB2 Solid, your team is pretty stacked or your in a 6 team league if you are thinking about benching him. 

Agreed on defenses being inconsistent year-to-year, but are you gonna tell me the Bears aren't going to have a stout run defense this year?  They aren't going to be historically good again, but they aren't just going to turn into pumpkins, either. 

I like Jones.  I had him last year and drafted him again this year at a much higher price tag, but he's not in the "start your studs" category yet.  He's shown to be productive and efficient but also inconsistent and sometimes TD dependent, and now has a new coaching staff just to muddy the waters.

Don't let the price tag blindly drive your sit/start decisions.  There are later-round guys that are just as good of starts this week.  I'm plugging my 9th round pick in over Jones.  If I'm wrong, I'll be happy to be that, because it means Jones showed up against one of the better run Ds in the league and he'll have my confidence ROS.  And that to me sounds much better than kicking off the season with a 10/45/0 line.

Edited by JJ1223
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5 minutes ago, JJ1223 said:

Agreed on defenses being inconsistent year-to-year, but are you gonna tell me the Bears aren't going to have a stout run defense this year?  They aren't going to be historically good again, but they aren't just going to turn into pumpkins, either. 

I like Jones.  I had him last year and drafted him again this year at a much higher price tag, but he's not in the "start your studs" category yet.  He's shown to be productive and efficient but also inconsistent and sometimes TD dependent, and now has a new coaching staff just to muddy the waters.

Don't let the price tag blindly drive your sit/start decisions.  There are later-round guys that are just as good of starts this week.  I'm plugging my 9th round pick in over Jones.  If I'm wrong, I'll be happy to be that, because it means Jones showed up against one of the better run Ds in the league and he'll have my confidence ROS.  And that to me sounds much better than kicking off the season with a 10/45/0 line.

Was your 9th round pick Breida by chance?

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unless your team is super loaded, you play the guys you drafted to be starters.  its week 1, no one knows what is going to happen out there.  matchups shouldn't worry you in week 1.  it's a clean slate for the season.  never know what will happen.  you don't fade your projected starter because you're afraid of the matchup

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