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George Springer 2019 Outlook


STLSU
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Message added by tonycpsu

[Thread for previous season automatically locked. Feel free to post a new thread for 2020.]

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If he can play 155 games, I can see him having a big breakout season approaching the 35-40 HR range.  Despite injury marring his 2018 season, his strikeout rate was still under 20% while still walking over 10%.  Had a career low 119 wRC rate after posting 140 in 2017.  He also enjoyed another great postseason springboarding (lol) into next year.  He posted his 2nd lowest FB rate but also his highest GB% at 49.4%

 

It's a stretch that he is currently a top 10 dynasty OF performer, but I feel he has that in him.  One figure that stands out positively is his highest ever PV on sliders at weighted 3.1 but for the first time fell below 0 wFB (-1.3) after posting above 20 PV on fastballs in 2014, 2016 and 2017.  He also saw higher sinkers and against them had a miserable figure of -11.5.  PD calues were in his career norm rate.

 

What say us on 2019?  He is my top OF in my league but his true fantasy rank is currently probably in the 12-20 range.

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His "breakout" was 2017. I dont think anyone should expect more than that at this point in his career. Hes basically a mid 20's HR guy with upside for a bit more, with solid OBP skills, and is one of the rare players you can pencil in for 100+ runs. His running days are most likely over and he probably wont break into double digit steals again.

Nice OF2 but I definitely wouldn't be happy if Springer was my OF1.

 

The only way he ever gets to the next level as a fantasy hitter is if he completely overhauls his swing and sells out for fly balls + power. And I haven't heard anything about a swing change. When nearly half of your balls in play are grounders, there just isnt much HR upside.

Edited by cs3
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I agree mostly with cs3. Certainly not looking at a breakout here, more like a bounce back. He averaged over 30 hr a season between 16-7. Another good thing about him is he's going to be 29 for pretty much the entire season, he's not washed.

 

I personally love him falling in drafts. I like his value this year. I think in auction in particular nobody is going to be super excited to bid him up.

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I'm not sure that it's fair to say he has already hit his ceiling.  The breakout term is loosely used here, as he is already a star but not quite a superstar.  As you can see, I was specifically referring to homerun power. 

 

He didn't have his first full season until 24 so he is 5 years experienced.  In that vein I consider him to be in his prime still.  Secondly, even if we discount that assumption, there many examples of players having a post-hype power breakout at a post prime age like Nelson Cruz, Daniel Murphy, Jose Bautista, Josh Donaldson, . . . and this is baseball after all which is nowhere near as physically taxing as other sports.  Finally all his underlying metrics look fairly great and he does not have to sell out for power.  Just stay healthy and perhaps limit his CF time if at all feasible.

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Probably should have went with my first instinct and stated 40+ HR annually.  I was thinking more like the Boomstick perennial range of 38-42.  In any event I believe he has another level or gear in him.

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57 minutes ago, STLSU said:

Probably should have went with my first instinct and stated 40+ HR annually.  I was thinking more like the Boomstick perennial range of 38-42.  In any event I believe he has another level or gear in him.

 

I really hope that's the case since I own him in a Dynasty and I'm actually probably going to try and sell him this year.  That  being said, I think low 30's is realistic expectation for a good year.   40 would be pretty surprising, would certainly be his career year.

 

Anyway, I think we spent a lot of time in this thread discussing semantics between breakouts and stuff.  I guess if he hit 40 HR with a good average, maybe that's a breakout year.  I'm of the mindset you can only breakout once, and I think his 2016-7 years were breakout, which does not necessarily mean his peak year. For now 2017 is his career year, I don't think it's impossible for him to top it, I just wouldn't bet on it.  I do think he has a few prime years left. 

Edited by brockpapersizer
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1 minute ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

I really hope that's the case since I own him in a Dynasty and I'm actually probably going to try and sell him this year.  That  being said, I think low 30's is realistic expectation for a good year.   40 would be pretty surprising, would certainly be his career year.

 

Anyway, I think we spent a lot of time in this thread discussing semantics between breakouts and stuff.  I guess if he hit 40 HR with a god average, maybe that's a breakout year.  I'm of the mindset you can only breakout once, and I think his 2016-7 years were breakout, which does not necessarily mean his peak year. For now 2017 is his career year, I don't think it's impossible for him to top it, I just wouldn't bet on it.  I do think he has a few prime years left. 

Yeah I hope so.  There's just so ething different about certain players.  I'm biased but guys like Altuve and Springer have the bright eyes as martial artists say.  That is to say they are capable of becoming a true master.  I think most analysts thought Springer would always be an Adam Dunn type as far as K rates go, and Altuve would never top 15 HR.  Or JD Martinez would never even be a FT starter etc.  I love the "come out of nowhere" at any time types even when people think they have them typecasted or pegged or capped.

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1 hour ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

I really hope that's the case since I own him in a Dynasty and I'm actually probably going to try and sell him this year.

 

I got rid of him last year in my dynasty and was thrilled to be done with him at last.  He is way way too streaky for my taste in fantasy.  Man can he go into l-o-n-g droughts at the plate.  Better player in real life than in fantasy.

 

 

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1 hour ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

 

I got rid of him last year in my dynasty and was thrilled to be done with him at last.  He is way way too streaky for my taste in fantasy.  Man can he go into l-o-n-g droughts at the plate.  Better player in real life than in fantasy.

 

 

 

I agree in part but disagree also.  I'm sure you got something decent for him, so not going to argue anything about what was right or wrong for your team to do.  I think maybe in a 5x5 league he isn't special, but he's almost a lock for elite Runs with power, and while he might not be helpful in average he won't be a drain, handful of steals is helpful even not a lot, better than 0.  If you play in an OBP league, his value is really up too. In points leagues, a power hitting leadoff hitter is quite valuable.

 

No problem with selling him last year, but I think he's going to have a much better season this year. I think he was clearly dealing with injuries in the 2nd half. 

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34 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

 

No problem with selling him last year, but I think he's going to have a much better season this year. I think he was clearly dealing with injuries in the 2nd half. 

His postseason gives us a lot of hope.

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  • 4 weeks later...
On 1/2/2019 at 5:31 PM, STLSU said:

His postseason gives us a lot of hope.

He always turns it on in the big spots in the playoffs. Last year 22 bombs in 620PA isn't getting it done when you aren't stealing bases or posting a high AVG/OBP to offset that.

 

He could bounce back but I'm not that inspired by him. If he gets taken off leadoff duties that would really hurt his value (runs drop), a .346OBP shouldn't really be leading off for a contending team either.

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On 1/2/2019 at 9:05 AM, STLSU said:

Yeah I hope so.  There's just so ething different about certain players.  I'm biased but guys like Altuve and Springer have the bright eyes as martial artists say.  That is to say they are capable of becoming a true master.  I think most analysts thought Springer would always be an Adam Dunn type as far as K rates go, and Altuve would never top 15 HR.  Or JD Martinez would never even be a FT starter etc.  I love the "come out of nowhere" at any time types even when people think they have them typecasted or pegged or capped.

We discount this stuff a little too much imo.  Getting to really know the personality type of pro players is usually a fools game,  but the names you listed specifically really stand out.  Esp guys like Josh and Jose who speak about their craft a lot publicly.  

At the pro level,  this usually takes a back seat to talent.  But even up there,  this is to me the difference between a Springer and a Heyward.  Both immense talents,  but one has a 10 cent head.  

 

For the kids i work with,  this is the number one difference between the kids that make it the collegiate level and the ones who don't.  

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  • 1 month later...

best shape of his life alert

 

George Springer wants to be more active on the basepaths this season after losing 12 pounds over the offseason.

Advice: "I’m already strong enough. I don’t need to come into camp at 235 pounds," Springer said. "I need to be able to run, do what Skip wants me to do day in and day out. I just think that my body feels good at this weight."

 

ill pencil him in for 10 i guess

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21 minutes ago, LarsonLarsen said:

Looks like he may have some...spring in his step?

 

A big part of stolen bases is basically desire of the player to do so. George has 3 already this spring.

Not that they didn't happen but keep in mind that two of those thefts came against Thor and I'm pretty sure Bartolo Colon could steal a base against him if he wanted to. I'd like to buy back in but he was pretty disappointing last year.  I'm curious to hear @taobball's take on him this year. I know you were pretty high on him last year if I remember correctly.

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1 minute ago, LarsonLarsen said:

Right but my point was, he's deciding to run. Not so much that he was or wasn't successful. Who knows if that desire lasts but at the very least it's nice to see the willingness.

 

na, he hasnt been successful at the mlb level

41 sb and 27 cs at mlb level.  think thats 60%.  maybe he steals 16 or something, but think u prob bank on 6-10

Edited by jfazz23
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3 minutes ago, jfazz23 said:

 

na, he hasnt been successful at the mlb level

41 sb and 27 cs at mlb level.  think thats 60%.  maybe he steals 16 or something, but think u prob bank on 6-10

Yes, this. He hasn't been stealing because over the last 3 years he has 20 stolen bases while getting caught 21 times. I'm pretty sure his manager doesn't want him running into outs on the basepaths when he has Altuve, Bregman, Correa, et al coming up. It's not because he hasn't had the desire to.

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I mean if you want to be technical, he's been successful at the MLB level. He had a 16 for 20 year and he's 41 for 68 career. But you're not paying for his steals.

 

He didn't just say he wanted to slim down, he showed up slimmed down. And exhibiting, at least early on, a willingness to run more. Note sure how you can say na thats not a reason for optimism, but I'll take him where he's been going and be happy when he tosses in 10-15 sb's.

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6 hours ago, meh2 said:

Not that they didn't happen but keep in mind that two of those thefts came against Thor and I'm pretty sure Bartolo Colon could steal a base against him if he wanted to. I'd like to buy back in but he was pretty disappointing last year.  I'm curious to hear @taobball's take on him this year. I know you were pretty high on him last year if I remember correctly.

 

Springer was a bit of a disappointment, but I think he's settled in to a role in fantasy as an incredibly Safe Outfielder / OF2. I mean Springer has reached only 140 Games in each of the past two seasons and has still managed to score 107 Rs per season and do so without being a drain in RBI. Do I expect much in terms of SBs? No, but he was projected as a chip in at best last year as well. 22 HRs seems like a down year, and I just simply expect him to hit a few more. A large volume of PAs, so long as he remains lead-off, should be a great aid in getting there.  

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6 hours ago, taobball said:

 

A large volume of PAs, so long as he remains lead-off, should be a great aid in getting there.  

Batting leadoff in the AL in one of the best offenses in baseball.  A lot of PAs if he's healthy, could potentially be #1 in baseball in PAs.

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I'm hoping for number one OF production but it's not a likely outcome.  I feel like Springer can spring to another level within him, but requires prima facie evidence of a full season of health.  You can do it man!  Haha...

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  • 1 month later...
On 4/20/2019 at 11:05 PM, bradwatson said:

Quietly having a really good start to the season. I've considered him mostly a jag for the past few years. Hopefully he can get to 30+ homers again this year.

 

He has left something to be desired for sure.  I think he has more power than the 22 HR he showed last year though and has consistently elite R production.  I know waiting on Springer to "break out" has been the downfall of many a team before, but with a relatively high floor and potential for .275/115/30/80/10 if all breaks right color me interested.

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