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Jorge Polanco 2019 Outlook


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4 hours ago, jb_power said:

please don't taobball!  let's keep this under covers for a couple of weeks!

 

 

Sorry, my job is to call it like I see em. 

 

Nick Mariano is a Rotoballer writer and was the most accurate ranker last year according to Fantasypros. His bold predictions today included: 

 

“”

Jorge Polanco is a top-10 shortstop, going 100/20/60/20/.300 from the leadoff spot

Eat your heart out, Byron Buxton truthers. Everyone may have chalked up his 10 HR, 7 SB, .316 BA in 55 games to end 2017 up to the PED suspension that “started” his ‘18 campaign, but he still hit six homers, swiped seven bags and hit .288 in 77 second-half games. Most projection systems are giving him a realistic shot at 15/15 in his age-25 season, but we’ve seen power spikes (unknown relation to PEDs) and his sprint speed is identical to Francisco Lindor’s. If he can regularly get on base and dance a little ahead of Eddie Rosario and Nelson Cruz then 100 runs are happening.

””

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Polanco has nothing to fear from Lindor being on a different team.

Sorry, my job is to call it like I see em.    Nick Mariano is a Rotoballer writer and was the most accurate ranker last year according to Fantasypros. His bold predictions today included: 

A favorite sleeper bat of mine.  2017 2nd half:  63 games, 14 2B, 2 3B, 6 HR, 4 SB, 18 BB, 47 K, .293/.344/.438 line 2018 total 77 games, 18 2B, 3 3B, 6 HR, 7 SB, 25 BB, 62 K, .288

Just now, osb_tensor said:

everything i can find says the twins are hopeful that he's available for today's game. anybody seeing anything different and/or more definitive?

 

No but the arm fatigue, as a major fan, does scare me a tad. Eespecially as it was at least once stated as shoulder fatigue. But maybe that's just the fear of my own expectations not being met regardless. 

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1 minute ago, taobball said:

No but the arm fatigue, as a major fan, does scare me a tad. Eespecially as it was at least once stated as shoulder fatigue. But maybe that's just the fear of my own expectations not being met regardless. 

yeah, i've got similar thoughts running through my head.

not to get too bench coachy, but those in weekly leagues have a decision to make. it's looking likely that we won't know his status before lineups lock, which might give hints with regard to his status for the remainder of the matchup period.

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25 minutes ago, KrispySteve423 said:

Don't see many cycles where the player in question finishes with 1 run and 1 RBI. That's a red flag on the supporting cast.

The Twins are currently 7th in wRC+ and 9th in OPS in all of baseball. That seems like it might be a better indicator of a player's supporting cast than a 1 game sample of 1 player's run and RBI totals. 

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41 minutes ago, Hockey_Baseball said:

Almost did it again... single, triple and a HR 💪

 

Glad someone posted. Didn't wanna be the one to bump the thread again. People sleeping on this boy HARD. He's gonna at LEAST kill righties all year. 

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On 1/2/2019 at 9:57 AM, taobball said:

I like Polanco a lot this year and have him as a starting SS in mixed leagues (SS10-12). I don't think he flashes too much in any indivdual category, but in a full season I'd expect a .285ish BA with 12 HR, 14 SB, and decent counting stats. It's a quiet season, but at his ADP likely to return a good amount of value. 


If anyone joins this thread and sees this first post, I became much more excited about Polanco throughout January. I love how much he's putting the ball in the air this year. Legitimate potential/upside. 

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1 hour ago, taobball said:


If anyone joins this thread and sees this first post, I became much more excited about Polanco throughout January. I love how much he's putting the ball in the air this year. Legitimate potential/upside. 

Ya, he was one of the better draft day value and I'm loving it. 

Personally, I think it'll be more HR than SB like 15/10ish. With the improved lineup, I wouldn't bank on him stealin more

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5 hours ago, taobball said:


If anyone joins this thread and sees this first post, I became much more excited about Polanco throughout January. I love how much he's putting the ball in the air this year. Legitimate potential/upside. 

 

I watched him in the recent series against the Phillies and I like him. He's a good guy to roster at short if you missed out on the sexier picks in the early rounds. 

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5 hours ago, SkinsNoles21 said:

Is this guy a sleeping giant due to lack of counting stats?

Yes. He's hitting 380 with a 420 obp and has scored 6 runs. It's obviously not his fault, but it's horrendous nonetheless. 

5 hours ago, rdf8585 said:

I was a little surprised Rotoworld "went there" with the roid comment tonight:

 

"He's been one of the game's better offensive shortstops since returning from a steroid suspension, which can't help but make one think."

I'm surprised you were really surprised a rotoworld player blurb offered a terrible hot take.

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I’ve noticed a lot of his hits seem to come with 2 outs.  I’ve also noticed his hits usually come with nobody on base. Just checked and he’s 0-7 with RISP.  Super tiny sample but hopefully he hasn’t wasted a hot streak with zero stats to show for it.

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1 hour ago, rdf8585 said:

 

 

One of my favorite preseason aspects of Jorge Polanco was that he has a very rare combination coming INTO the season of low Whiff% and high SLG% on 4SFBs. He seems to get around on pitches fast and puts the bat right on the ball. This breakout feels so legitimate to me and we have a thread of crickets.

 

K% keeps trending downward in recent games. Now 15.0%. Took a walk without striking out last two days. BB% now at 8.3%. His eye is immaculate. Don't care if anyone wants to debate or disagree with me on that one. He follows pitches incredibly well and seems to do a good job with location. And he's just looking to do an insane amount of damage whenever he can right now. Pitchers are trying to be more selective and I think it has lead to him taking more pitches and walks the last few games, insetad of caving in on bad pitches. With Cruz and Rosario behind him, I don't think being pitched around is a great fear for me. Especially with some speed to add to the basepaths whether we have seen it so far this year or not. 

 

I mean coming into today Jorge Polanco had put 40 Balls into Play. 32 of them were LDs or FBs. 14 of the 32 were "Hard Hit" balls via Fangraphs. 26 were Hard or Medium. After today he has 9 XBHs, a .340 ISO, and 3 HRs. 

 

If he keeps elevating like this don't be shocked if we see a real power breakout. This dude is smoking the ball and cursing groudnballs. 

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2 hours ago, taobball said:

 

 

I mean coming into today Jorge Polanco had put 40 Balls into Play. 32 of them were LDs or FBs. 14 of the 32 were "Hard Hit" balls via Fangraphs. 26 were Hard or Medium. After today he has 9 XBHs, a .340 ISO, and 3 HRs. 

This dude is smoking the ball and cursing groudnballs. 

 

I wanted to expand on this. 3 BIP today. The first AB was a Flyout to near the Warning track. It was deep enough Kepler thought he could tag up from 1st to 2nd. Probably not "hard" hit, but almost certainly not "soft." 2nd AB was the CRUSHED HR. Definitely a FB. Almost certainly "hard." Third was a LD, very sharply hit, and once against certainly not "soft." 

 

I also forgot to make mention, and it is technically a small factor, of the 2 Bunts Polanco has made this year. He's actually bunted down the 3rd base line twice for HITS this year. But more importantly for this conversation, that means that out of the already minuscule 8 GBs he's had this year, 2 of them have actually been completely intentional. 

 

Adding todays game, and removing the bunts, that's 41 Balls in Play with 35 FBs+LDs and 29 FBs+LDs that are Med-Hard. That means that, when he is TRYING to SWING at the ball, he has elevated the ball 85.4% of the time and hit the ball MED-HARD alongside that elevation 70.7% of the time. Now don't get me wrong: There's a difference between "not a fluke" and "can do this forever." But there's NOTHING that's a fluke about how Polanco is absolutely hammering the ball right now. I don't care at all that his BABIP is ridiculous so far. Elevation + Solid Contact on 70.7% of BIP alongside a 15.0% K% is absolutely nuts. 

 

Polanco has an incredible eye and an incredible contact ability. I thought he would transition them into a bit more of a subtle breakout. He's decided to utilize his eye and contact and focus solely on finding pitches he can elevate and hitting the bejeezus out of them. I had him #90 against an ADP of #220 and I'm still impressed by what he's accomplished thusfar. I think the power he could put up this year is SIGNIFICANT. i don't wanna put a number on it but that's more because I think my number has potential to be ridiculously high. I love what he's doing right now. I had him as a solid-to-plus BA, 15/15 to 20/15 type character. I could see him translating his skills into a LOT more power moving forward. Shades of some indians infielders here. 

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