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Saquon Barkley 2019 Outlook


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42 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

Ok with that I actually found something:

https://corner.bigblueinteractive.com/index.php?mode=2&thread=585329

 No, the rumor is that a former pro bowl receiver on a team with bad WR depth might be facing a suspension. 

Nothing in the tweet said Golden Tate, and he's not the only guy in the league who fits that description. 

Beyond that, it came from ******** Incarcerated Bob. He's not a source.

 

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000001037464/article/golden-tate-facing-fourgame-suspension-for-peds

 

The New York Giants might be without another receiver to begin the season.

Golden Tate is appealing a four-game suspension for violating the league's policy on performance-enhancing substances, NFL Network Insider Ian Rapoport reported.

ESPN first reported the news.

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confirmed - spotted coming down Broadway last night ....

These are always the best posts.  I got a high ankle sprain at the YMCA and the recovery time was totally comparable to what Saquan Barkley will be going through.

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5 minutes ago, wideopen21 said:

 

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000001037464/article/golden-tate-facing-fourgame-suspension-for-peds

 

The New York Giants might be without another receiver to begin the season.

Golden Tate is appealing a four-game suspension for violating the league's policy on performance-enhancing substances, NFL Network Insider Ian Rapoport reported.

ESPN first reported the news.

Blast. Over to the Tate thread.

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Yikes. Can his talent overcome this? The team is down to him and Engram now. 

If you are drafting in the next few days, with Zeke holding out, the picture is certainly murky. 

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Anyone remember who the Ravens’ leading receiver was when Jamal Lewis rushed for over 2k yards in 2003?

It was Todd Heap. He didn’t even clear 700 yards.

 

Anyone remember who the Titans leading receiver was when Chris Johnson rushed for over 2k yards in 2009?

It was Kenny Britt with 701 yards.

 

A poor passing attack doesn’t necessarily mean the rushing attack will be bad. It could be just the opposite. Barkley just has a little less competition for the ball now. 

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3 minutes ago, AirForceOne said:

Anyone remember who the Ravens’ leading receiver was when Jamal Lewis rushed for over 2k yards in 2003?

It was Todd Heap. He didn’t even clear 700 yards.

 

Anyone remember who the Titans leading receiver was when Chris Johnson rushed for over 2k yards in 2009?

It was Kenny Britt with 701 yards.

 

A poor passing attack doesn’t necessarily mean the rushing attack will be bad. It could be just the opposite. Barkley just has a little less competition for the ball now. 

You're right, however those instances are more rare.. Plus the state of the game has changed a lot since 03 and 09, defenders bigger stronger faster. While I agree that even a bad passing attack doesn't mean the run game will suffer, Im not sure it's worth chancing when you have at least 2 other options where this isn't a problem and could have even greater performances

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I went through a quick phase of Barkley fear, but its only 4 games for Tate, Coleman doesn't matter, and Shepard probably isn't out long.  He did fine last year down the stretch while Beckham was out.     If he can still drop 20 point games in December on a team with absolutely nothing to play for, i'm not too worried.

But if there's one more summer calamity, then i might have to reconsider then.   Besides, if they sign Kelvin Benjamin its like an extra tackle on the outside.  

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2 hours ago, AirForceOne said:

Anyone remember who the Ravens’ leading receiver was when Jamal Lewis rushed for over 2k yards in 2003?

It was Todd Heap. He didn’t even clear 700 yards.

 

Anyone remember who the Titans leading receiver was when Chris Johnson rushed for over 2k yards in 2009?

It was Kenny Britt with 701 yards.

 

A poor passing attack doesn’t necessarily mean the rushing attack will be bad. It could be just the opposite. Barkley just has a little less competition for the ball now. 

You make interesting points and I went and looked at additional RB's as well. Here are the top 15 rushing yardage seasons in NFL history, along with the leading receiver by yardage on the RB's team...

image.png.065b1260b36c385c3dd9ef992f36ee48.png

Now some of those seasons are from very different eras of the NFL, where passing game wasn't emphasized nearly as much as today. But overall, for the top 15, the elite RB's for the most part did not have an elite WR or TE on the same team.

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From the above list in the prior post, the only season within this decade was Peterson's 2097 yard season in 2012. So I looked up the top 100 rushing yardage seasons in NFL history, and picked out the seasons that occurred within the 2010--2018 decade so far...

image.png.2ad9b6257dbb6ad8a2a812c29cf70333.png

Even in recent years, it hasn't been a requirement for an elite RB to have an elite (or in some cases, even competent) WR or TE on the team with him. In no way does this mean Saquon will have a top 100 rushing season, as that's not the point being made at all. It's to re-enforce the notion that a RB can have an elite season without an upper-tier WR or TE on his team.

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On 7/27/2019 at 10:28 PM, Corleone said:

From the above list in the prior post, the only season within this decade was Peterson's 2097 yard season in 2012. So I looked up the top 100 rushing yardage seasons in NFL history, and picked out the seasons that occurred within the 2010--2018 decade so far...

image.png.2ad9b6257dbb6ad8a2a812c29cf70333.png

Even in recent years, it hasn't been a requirement for an elite RB to have an elite (or in some cases, even competent) WR or TE on the team with him. In no way does this mean Saquon will have a top 100 rushing season, as that's not the point being made at all. It's to re-enforce the notion that a RB can have an elite season without an upper-tier WR or TE on his team.

Where's Adrian petersons 2000 yard campaign?

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I don't doubt Barkley's talent as he's elite but I don't like the situation at all this year.  The Giants will probably be playing from behind a lot and teams will likely load the box to stop him with the wr issues.  Not to mention that a rookie qb will likely be under center by midseason at the latest.  This may sound bold but Barkley is on my do-not-draft list this year as I envision a letdown season similar to what Todd Gurley had a couple years ago. 

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54 minutes ago, sjm76 said:

I don't doubt Barkley's talent as he's elite but I don't like the situation at all this year.  The Giants will probably be playing from behind a lot and teams will likely load the box to stop him with the wr issues.  Not to mention that a rookie qb will likely be under center by midseason at the latest.  This may sound bold but Barkley is on my do-not-draft list this year as I envision a letdown season similar to what Todd Gurley had a couple years ago. 

You have all the right to be concerned my friend

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8 hours ago, sjm76 said:

I don't doubt Barkley's talent as he's elite but I don't like the situation at all this year.  The Giants will probably be playing from behind a lot and teams will likely load the box to stop him with the wr issues.  Not to mention that a rookie qb will likely be under center by midseason at the latest.  This may sound bold but Barkley is on my do-not-draft list this year as I envision a letdown season similar to what Todd Gurley had a couple years ago. 

 

Gurley 2016 had an incompetent HC who pulled him off the field on passing downs for Benny Cunningham (no joke). 

 

Saquon doesnt have that problem. With OBJ gone, he's the best receiver on that team; Shurmur will keep him fed in the passing game.

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2 hours ago, joshua18 said:

 

Gurley 2016 had an incompetent HC who pulled him off the field on passing downs for Benny Cunningham (no joke). 

 

Saquon doesnt have that problem. With OBJ gone, he's the best receiver on that team; Shurmur will keep him fed in the passing game.

I don't think that is true about 2016 gurley, Cunningham only had 15 catches on 21 targets that season, gurley had 43 catches on 58 targets.

 

it looks like the 2016 gurley syndrome was tied to his lowest ypc season ever with only 3.2 ypc, and his lowest td total of only 6 that season

the stacked box, issues is the most likely cause, which could also be a major roadblock in saquons path to dominance this upcoming season.

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14 hours ago, sjm76 said:

I don't doubt Barkley's talent as he's elite but I don't like the situation at all this year.  The Giants will probably be playing from behind a lot and teams will likely load the box to stop him with the wr issues.  Not to mention that a rookie qb will likely be under center by midseason at the latest.  This may sound bold but Barkley is on my do-not-draft list this year as I envision a letdown season similar to what Todd Gurley had a couple years ago. 


It's a valid concern that there is potential for a sophomore slump, but come on. There is no other RB in a better situation with more talent than Barkley. That's just facts.
Corey Coleman was next to worthless to begin with. Sterling Shepard is likely back by week 1. Tate's loss hurts for the first 4 games, but it's not like he's out for the season. The concerns here are quite overblown. The comparison to 2016 Gurley (ahem... the Jeff Fisher era) is waay off base. Eli is not a 2nd year QB, his receivers are not inexperienced, and Mike Shula was Offensive Coordinator of the Year in 2013 with the Panthers, and was the highest scoring offense in 2015. They ranked in the top half of the league every year since. He knows how to build an effective offense.

That said, it's been proven in recent history that a low volume passing attack doesn't equate to a low volume rushing attack. It often means the exact opposite. Giants are going to score points and get yards somehow, and it will be Barkley getting the majority of them -- whether it's rushing or receiving. There is absolutely no better RB option in the league. 
 

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For people that have drafted him or intent on drafting him, are you bothering with a handcuff?  Is it Wayne Gallman?  Yuck.  Paul Perkins I think is still around too?  Seems like grabbing a handcuff for some other RB might be the way to go?  Barkley's talent should allow him to overcome the terrible offensive situation but I'm not sure one of these backups would have the same amount of success.

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3 minutes ago, CooL said:

For people that have drafted him or intent on drafting him, are you bothering with a handcuff?  Is it Wayne Gallman?  Yuck.  Paul Perkins I think is still around too?  Seems like grabbing a handcuff for some other RB might be the way to go?  Barkley's talent should allow him to overcome the terrible offensive situation but I'm not sure one of these backups would have the same amount of success.

OH HELL NO, if u draft Barkley and he goes down, just put a fork in ur fantasy season, ur done

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On 7/29/2019 at 6:53 PM, sjm76 said:

I don't doubt Barkley's talent as he's elite but I don't like the situation at all this year.  The Giants will probably be playing from behind a lot and teams will likely load the box to stop him with the wr issues.  Not to mention that a rookie qb will likely be under center by midseason at the latest.  This may sound bold but Barkley is on my do-not-draft list this year as I envision a letdown season similar to what Todd Gurley had a couple years ago. 

If Giants are playing from behind a lot, Barkley will have 100+ receipts and 1000+ yards receiving. 

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I will not draft Barkley if I get a top 3 pick.  Would even have a hard time drafting him if I get a top 5 pick for the following reasons, none of which are a knock on Barkley's talent:

 

1. The Giants will likely be terrible and he will constantly be up against stacked boxes with Beckham not there to open things up outside.

2. Sterling Shepard is already hurt and the jury is still out whether he can be a #1 wr.  Golden Tate is mainly a possession receiver and is out the first 4 games.

3. A rookie qb, Daniel Jones, will likely be under center by midseason at the latest leading to even more stacked boxes against Barkley.

I hope that I'm wrong but I wouldn't be surprised at all if it's a Gurley 2016 2.0 situation.

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On 7/29/2019 at 7:53 PM, sjm76 said:

I don't doubt Barkley's talent as he's elite but I don't like the situation at all this year.  The Giants will probably be playing from behind a lot and teams will likely load the box to stop him with the wr issues.  Not to mention that a rookie qb will likely be under center by midseason at the latest.  This may sound bold but Barkley is on my do-not-draft list this year as I envision a letdown season similar to what Todd Gurley had a couple years ago. 

 

46 minutes ago, sjm76 said:

I will not draft Barkley if I get a top 3 pick.  Would even have a hard time drafting him if I get a top 5 pick for the following reasons, none of which are a knock on Barkley's talent:

1. The Giants will likely be terrible and he will constantly be up against stacked boxes with Beckham not there to open things up outside.

2. Sterling Shepard is already hurt and the jury is still out whether he can be a #1 wr.  Golden Tate is mainly a possession receiver and is out the first 4 games.

3. A rookie qb, Daniel Jones, will likely be under center by midseason at the latest leading to even more stacked boxes against Barkley.

I hope that I'm wrong but I wouldn't be surprised at all if it's a Gurley 2016 2.0 situation.


I take it you have nothing new to add to your original post, which was a pretty weak assessment to begin with? 

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46 minutes ago, sjm76 said:

I will not draft Barkley if I get a top 3 pick.  Would even have a hard time drafting him if I get a top 5 pick for the following reasons, none of which are a knock on Barkley's talent:

 

1. The Giants will likely be terrible and he will constantly be up against stacked boxes with Beckham not there to open things up outside.

2. Sterling Shepard is already hurt and the jury is still out whether he can be a #1 wr.  Golden Tate is mainly a possession receiver and is out the first 4 games.

3. A rookie qb, Daniel Jones, will likely be under center by midseason at the latest leading to even more stacked boxes against Barkley.

I hope that I'm wrong but I wouldn't be surprised at all if it's a Gurley 2016 2.0 situation.

If they're playing from behind, he gets more involved in the passing game with the dumpoffs.  Was Beckham consistently drawing double coverage?  Serious question, I don't really know.  It's not as if they're going to leave Giants WR uncovered because the guy is no Beckham.

Isn't Sterling Shepard's injury a broken finger?  Reports are that he is going to be ready by the beginning of the regular season.  Julian Edelman also broke his hand, but there doesn't seem to be much concern about him.  Tate is out, yes.  But they still have Evan Engram.

If you're not drafting Barkley with a top 5 pick, then that guy at #6 will be a very happy camper.  I don't think there will be a single league where Barkley doesn't go top 5.

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1 minute ago, CooL said:

If they're playing from behind, he gets more involved in the passing game with the dumpoffs.  Was Beckham consistently drawing double coverage?  Serious question, I don't really know.  It's not as if they're going to leave Giants WR uncovered because the guy is no Beckham.

Isn't Sterling Shepard's injury a broken finger?  Reports are that he is going to be ready by the beginning of the regular season.  Julian Edelman also broke his hand, but there doesn't seem to be much concern about him.  Tate is out, yes.  But they still have Evan Engram.

If you're not drafting Barkley with a top 5 pick, then that guy at #6 will be a very happy camper.  I don't think there will be a single league where Barkley doesn't go top 5.

 

Alot of good points made here and yes,  Odell drew alot of double coverage. I personally think saquon will have a another great season but probably not the RB1 or RB2. My biggest concern is no one knows how the team will look if the rookie qb gets to play. Maybe hes historically bad like Jared Goffs of Josh Rosen's rookie years and no body is worth a damn on the whole offense. Maybe he comes in and is Baker 2.0. Hell maybe eli plays all 16 games. Who knows. 

My point is maybe Zeke or CMC might be a safer pick this season but saquon is certainly a top 5 pick to me.

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